Past, present, and future of railway systems in the Philippines: a presentation to the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines by Rene Santiago, Managing Director of Bellwether Advisory Inc.
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Railways in the Philippines: A Concise History and Outlook
1. Railways Philippines 2012
A Presentation for the American Chamber of Commerce
By Rene Santiago, Managing Director, Bellwether Advisotry Inc.
29 February 2012
2. Outline of Presentation
Introduction
• Why the interest on rail
• Historical context
Intra-urban Rail lines
• Lines 1 and 2 and proposed Extensions
• MRT 3 and upgrade
• MRT 7
• Others (BRT, Monorail, Cebu MTS)
Inter-urban rail lines
• PNR Main Line South (existing
• PNR Commuter South
• Northrail
• Panay Railway
• Mindanao Railway
Conclusions and Q&As
3. 1 - Introduction
Rail in Manila‟s history
Electric Tramway, 65kms in
1905 and 85 kms by 1925
Ridership: 35,000 per day in
1906, and 126,000 in 1920:
MERALCO: an American
company w/50-year
franchise, owned and operated
the electric tram, up to 1945.
Closure of rail after WW2, gave
rise to jeepneys
Like other cities in many countries, the emergence of automobiles in
the 1920s led to the decline of railways, and/or government takeover
4. 1 - Introduction
Antecedents of PNR
•
General plan for Railways in Luzon
prepared in 1876, with the
Ferrocaril de Manila-Dagupan
opened in 1892
Built via a concession granted to Dagupan Station
Manila Railway Company Ltd (a
British firm), w/guaranteed 8% ROI
At its peak,1,140 kms operational
line; managed by a SOE that was a
model of corporate efficiency
Tutuban
Station
Source: Iwata, Shizuo, “Development of Public Transport in Metro Manila, Philippines”, 1993.
5. 1 - Introduction
Why the interests on rail?
USA not a global rail supplier/exporter (except, perhaps in
locomotives)
Philippines railway sector is "small fish in a big ocean"
50-km urban rail lines, less than 10% of daily trips in MManila
422-km Main Line South (Bicol); 2 trips/day on Mnl-Naga (today)
Special emphasis on High-speed Rail in "Arangkada Forum“
Very few countries can justify HSR
USA still in the throes of heated debates; Acela Express nearest to HSR
Nostalgia, for the grand railroads of yesteryears?
6. 2 – Intra-Urban Rail
Rebirth of Rail in Manila
• 1972 Study -proposed a system of expressway
and railway network (ala Tokyo), including
135.1 km of subway
• 1977 MMETROPLAN study, recommended
street-level tram car along Rizal and Taft
Avenue
• 1979 - Decision to build LRT Line 1, 15-
km, fully-elevated
• 1984 - Partial operation of Line 1
• 1985 - Metrorail Network Study, proposed LRT
Lines 2, 3 and 4
• 1989 - Failure of BOT bidding for Line 2
• 2001-02 – Opening of Lines 3 and 2
Premised on the belief that a large metropolitan area can only be
sustained by rail, and that urban transit is the business of government
7. 3 – Intra-Urban Rail
Metro Manila Rail
MRT-7 (22-km)
5.4-km North Loop was Contract signed in 2009;
completed in 2010; but Oct 2010 expiry extended;
interface with MRT-3 still Concession flipped 2x;
unfinished Currently in holding pattern
LRT-2 East (4-km)
3 F/S since 2006, could‟ve been
tendered in 2008;
JICA F/S in 2011, per DOTC
LRT1-SEP (12-km)
request;
2002: construction was
On-going study (again!)
supposed to start (SNC-
Lavalin contract)
2006: PPP implementation
per IFC study, aborted
2009: Unsolicited proposal MRT-3 (17-km)
via JVA •Frequent system
2010: DOTC study to breakdown, due to overloading;
merge with MRT-3 & bid
•MPIC proposal to
out O&M
takeover, double capacity, &
2011: Service contract for
upgrade system in limbo
OM&R
2012: ???
8. 3 – Intra-Urban Rail
Flavor of the Month for LRT-1 SEP
Project Cost ~Php59 Billion
•June 2012 tender, via so-called
“Hybrid” PPP
•CW to be funded & built by
private investor
•Rolling Stock & Satellite depot
via ODA (hence, gov‟t)
•30-year Concession, Fares
adjustable with CPI
•Winning bidder takes over line
management, from start
9. 3 – Intra-Urban Rail
Other Mass Transit Projects
No study (pre-fs or
FS) yet;
Maybe, 2026
Unsolicited proposal (B-O-O) of Ayala Land
for a BRT System on Ayala Avenue
presented to DoTC in Oct 2011; no response
BRT System for MetroCebu and Davao City
2009 study and proposal, backed by IBRD
10. 3 – Provincial/Inter-Urban Rail
Decline of inter-urban railways
Manila-Clark (Northrail)
•10% accomplishment from
2006-2010
Main Line North •Works suspended since 2010
closed in 1984 •Impasse with Sinomach, likely
to follow the T-3 fiasco
Main Line South
(448-km from Mnl-
Naga)
Operations ceased in
2006 due to typhoon-
induced damage
Re-opened in
2011, 2 trips/day
Rehab plan ~Php29
billion
11. 3 – Provincial/Inter-Urban Rail
“Zombie” Railway Projects
Reviving a 1985 „carcass‟
The Mindanao Railway fantasy
12. 4 – Conclusions
Concluding Remarks
Expect no acceleration in project implementation
• But, miracles do happen (rarely)
Absence of a coherent and sustained rail policy
• LRTA and PNR are financially bankrupt; financial re-structuring plans
unacted, for more than 10 years already
• Toxic environment for rail to flourish and thrive (e.g., amateurs at the
helm, low fares, poor maintenance, etc.)
High Interests on rail from ODA & Private Sector
• Lending portfolio of ADB (strategy 2020) for urban transport to scale
up by 5x in 5 years
• Big players (SMC, Ayala, MPIC, foreign investors, etc) on-the-prowl
for opportunities [Texan saying:“Big Hats, No Cattles”]