Global Financial Crises In Australia

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arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision. arifanees.com Information-Inspiration-Transformation

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Source: IMF and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Note: Find data that shows narrowing of spread, then widening, and then gradual reduction. Source: Bloomberg. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Note: To be changed to RBA Commodity Price Index Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0 and Treasury. Note: Only latest forecast needed arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Note: Other East Asia* excludes Vietnam, Hong Kong, China and Japan. Source: Relevant National Statistical Agencies and Treasury calculations. United States euro area China Other East Asia and Japan arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Advanced World Source: International Monetary Fund. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: International Monetary Fund. Duration Amplitude arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury. Forecasts arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0 and Treasury. Forecasts arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: International Monetary Fund. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0, Thomson Reuters and Treasury. Note: Need to include OECD average arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Businesses Consumers Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute, National Australia Bank, DX and OECD. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0 and Thomson Reuters. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8755.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: CEIC China database and Treasury.. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5220.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences . arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network 2005, Columbia University;and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). Gridded Population of the World,Version 3. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, IMF and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

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Economic and investment outlook • Expect a very large hit to global GDP in the June quarter from coronavirus driven shutdowns and uncertainty, followed by some recovery by year end as shutdowns ease. • Inflation to fall then remain low. • Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is far larger than seen in the GFC. • Australian fiscal stimulus is around 8% of GDP. • Cash rate to be around 0.25% for at least three years. • Shares at risk of a pull back in the short term but should provide good returns on a 12-24 month view. • Australian assets to benefit from better virus control, better stimulus, exposure to China. • What to watch: risk of a “second wave”, timely economic indicators, unemployment/ bankruptcies, US/China tensions and the US election.

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Government Government Statistics  Sources  Debt Clock  FED Money Supply  CBO  OMB  Treasury http://www.usdebtclock.org/ https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE https://www.cbo.gov/about/overview https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/ https://www.treasury.gov/Pages/default.aspx Government Statistics Government Research Issues  Budget Deficit  Off-budget items can create discrepancies (USPS and GSEs)  National Debt  May not be analogous to household debt since fiscal policy necessitates spending inverse to the business cycle.  Some debt is intra-governmental (SSA & FED)  Raw value may be less important than percentage of GDP. Government Statistics Government Research Issues  Tax Burden  Progressive vs. Regressive with income (sales vs. income tax)  Payroll tax is split between employer/employee but the employer may pass burden onto employee in the form of a lower wage.  Excise taxes are imposed on businesses but they may be able to pass onto consumers in the form of higher prices.  Some groups are better able and more incentivized to avoid (or evade) taxes. Government Statistics Government Research Issues  Measuring Money  Money Supply: M1 & M2 categories.  Monetary Policy  By 1990s the FED stopped targeting the money supply.  Monetary expansion shows up in FED balance sheet.  Inflation Measurements: CPI  BLS creates a “Market Basket” to compute CPI monthly.  Annualized CPI?  CPI-U vs. CPI-W  May fail to account for:  Qualitative changes in products.  Substitution toward cheaper but similar products.  Cost of owning a home (post 1983 use rental value) https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Government Statistics Government Research Issues  Military Expenditures  Overstated since it includes “nation building” expenditures.  Understated as some “defense” expenditures are excluded.  Economics of War  Direct costs understate true economic costs.  Assessing true cost-benefit of war requires counter-factual computations that are highly unreliable.  Wartime deaths estimates have a broad continuum.  Welfare Expenditures  Budget includes in-kind benefits such as health care, overstating actual money received by recipients.  Defining “welfare” is debatable:  Means tested transfer payments or benefits to all citizens? Business Statistics Business Statistics  EDGAR  Provides financial statements of publically traded corporation in the U.S.  Company Size?  Sales  High sales may be misleading due to pass-through production.  Appropriate in researching market control in a certain industry.  Assets  Rarely bought and sold so depreciation after purchase must be estimated.  Market Value  Stock market assessment of value.  Volatile measurement.  Appropriate when researching corporate takeovers.  Profits  Appropriate in researching likely success of a firm.  Employment  Less ambiguous than sales or asset val.

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Global Financial Crises In Australia

1. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

3. Source: IMF and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

4. Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

5. Source: Thomson Reuters

6. Note: Find data that shows narrowing of spread, then widening, and then gradual reduction. Source: Bloomberg. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

7. Note: To be changed to RBA Commodity Price Index Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

8. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0 and Treasury. Note: Only latest forecast needed arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

9. Note: Other East Asia* excludes Vietnam, Hong Kong, China and Japan. Source: Relevant National Statistical Agencies and Treasury calculations. United States euro area China Other East Asia and Japan arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

10. Advanced World Source: International Monetary Fund. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

11. Source: International Monetary Fund. Duration Amplitude arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

12. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

13. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

14. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

15. Source: Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

16. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury. Forecasts arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

17. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0 and Treasury. Forecasts arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

18. Source: Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

19. Source: International Monetary Fund. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

20. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0, Thomson Reuters and Treasury. Note: Need to include OECD average arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

21. Businesses Consumers Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute, National Australia Bank, DX and OECD. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

22. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0 and Thomson Reuters. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

23. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

24. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8755.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

25. Source: CEIC China database and Treasury.. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

26. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

27. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

28. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

29. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

30. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5220.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

31. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

32. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

33. Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences . arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

34. Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network 2005, Columbia University;and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). Gridded Population of the World,Version 3. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

35. Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, IMF and Treasury. arifanees.com - Information - Inspiration - Transformation

Global Financial Crises In Australia

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