A presentation by Stephen Carver for the APM South East branch's 'Leadership in 3PM' event, Wednesday 23rd October, in Crawley

1. Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times
The Battle of Britain
Stephen Carver FAPM
School of Management
Cranfield University

2. Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times
“Eagles
may soar high
but…….
weasels don’t get sucked
into jet engines”

3. Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times
Want to do
Don’t want to
do
Strategic
Spontaneous
Projects &
Adventures Programmes
Crisis
Events
Compliance
Projects &
Programmes
Unplanned
Planned

4. 68%
Project Failure Rate
Most projects and programmes
are doomed to fail....

5. Flying Analogy

7. Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger III

8. Chaos
Complex or
Complicated?

9. UK Airways System

10. PPM – Maturity Levels
5
4
3
2
1
World Class Continuous process
improvement , success is normal
Competitive Controlled and
measured processes, results more in
line with plans
Compliant Standardised, more predictable
Minimal Some process, inconsistent success
Ad Hoc Disorganised, accidental success

11. PPM – Strategic Advantage
Strategic
Contribution
Limit of process based approach
5
4
3
2
1
World-class: redefines delivery in the industry,
automatically improving, very hard to imitate by
competitors, drives business strategy.
Competitive: provides source of competitive
advantage, focused, metrics determine areas for
improvement, supports business strategy.
Compliant: follows industry-accepted norms,
improvements sporadic, process-focused, cost of
failure significant, little strategic contribution
Minimal: tasked with ‘not messing up’, some use
of standards, reactive, high cost of failure,
negative strategic contribution.
Ad hoc: unreliable delivery, very high cost of
failure, strongly negative strategic
contribution

12. Two Dimensions of Complexity
Programme
Complex
Dynamic
Project
Agile
High
Structural
Dimension
Low
Low
Dynamic
Dimension
High

13. 1940
The Battle of Britain

14. 1940
Huge number of great planes
Huge numbers of pilots
Lots of experience
Innovative tactics
Morale high
On a roll
Large number of rubbish planes
Limited number of pilots
Limited experience
Traditional tactics
Morale low
Defeatist

15. Hugh Dowding
Head of RAF
Fighter Command
Complex/Dynamic
More with less

16. Fighter Command System

17. Deals with
Structural
Complexity

18. Deals with
Dynamic
Complexity

19. Hugh Dowding
Head of Fighter Command
Leigh Mallory
Keith Park

20. Approach
Engage in pure fighter raids
Engage bomber raids after they bomb
Big Wing standing patrols
Shoot down lots of planes
Pursue stragglers over the sea
Douglas
Bader
Pilots are a individualistic risk taking heroes

21. Approach
Do not engage pure fighter raids
Engage bomber raids before they bomb
Scramble early – hit and run
Aim to break up formations
Do not pursue stragglers over the sea
Pilots are part of an integrated team

22. The Luftwaffe: strategically incoherent
• Bomb Ports
• Bomb Factories
• Bomb RAF
• Bomb London
Goering

23. The Blitz
Hitler expects to terrorise and
cow the people of this mighty
city…
Little does he know the spirit of
the British nation, or the tough
fibre of the Londoners.

24. Now Park could really do his stuff …

27. So What?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Have a clear vision/strategy
Do more with less - focus
Turn on the radar!
Know where you/the “enemy” are
Have simple/flexible/agile systems
Bend/make the rules
Communicate and integrate...
Lead/empower/trust
Embrace risk & complexity
But...

28. Leadership of Change
“There is nothing more difficult to arrange,
more doubtful of success and more
dangerous to carry through, than initiating
change.
The change leader makes enemies of all
those who prospered under the old order
and only lukewarm support is forthcoming
from those who would prosper under the
new.

29. Socio Political Complexity
Programme
Complex
Dynamic
Project
Agile
High
Structural
Dimension
Low
Low
Dynamic
High

30. “If ever any one man won the Battle of
Britain,
Keith Park did.
I don’t believe it is recognised how much
this one man, with his leadership, his calm
judgment and his skill, did to save not only
this country, but the world.”
Lord Tedder
Chief of the Royal Air Force
February 1947

31. Thank you!