Transformational Management of Forest Ecosystems to Improve Water Availability and Ecological Resiliance in the West

1. Management of Forest Ecosystems to Improve Water
Availability and Ecological Resilience in the West
Laura McCarthy
The Nature Conservancy
New Mexico Field Office
Mike Hightower
Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque, NM
Transformational Solutions for Water in the West
University of New Mexico, September 5, 2013

2. Climate Change will Impact Precipitation,
Evapotranspiration, and Runoff
10% reduction in
precipitation equals
a 20% reduction in
runoff in the SW
Nat. Geo. April 2009 from IPCC
“Water is where the climate change rubber meets the road”
Dr. Bernie Zak, Sandia Sr. Climate Scientist, 2013

3. Southwest Climate History Based on Tree Ring Data
20
18
Avg.
Precipitation
(inches)
16
14
12
25
0
45
0
65
0
85
0
10
50
12
50
14
50
16
50
18
50
20
50
50
-1
50
10
Univ. of Arizona – Tree Ring Research Lab
Year
The southern U.S is the 100th year of a 300 year
arid cycle, this is not what we should be calling a drought

4. Projected Rio Grande Flows through 2100
“Results are not predictions, but rather a starting point for dialogue and
increased awareness of potential impacts of climate change.”
Roach et al, 2013

5. Traditional Western Surface Water Availability Relies
Heavily on Annual Mountain Snowmelt
Illustrative example (Southwest)
Month
60-70 % of western river flows come from runoff of
snowmelt in mountain watersheds

6. The Number, Size, and Severity of Forest Fires Has Grown
Significantly in the U.S. Over the Last Four Decades
Two major contributing factors - forest management and climate
. ..
...
Noted by U of A 2006, and finally by NOAA 2012,
NASA 2012, USDA 2012, Harvard 2013, 2013 draft NCA

7. Forest Management Contributions to Fire Intensity
• Past forest and fire management
practices have contributed to increased
fuel loads and fire severity.
• Future management practices must
consider climate change impacts.
Many small trees,
high intensity fires
(Tree Diameter)
Few large trees,
low intensity fires

8. Ecosystem Damage
from High Intensity Fires
Photo: Craig Allen, USGS

9. Watershed, Water Quality, and Reservoir Damage
from High Intensity Fires

10. Possible Future Impact of Forest Fires
on Mountain Watersheds
Climate change is compounding already unhealthy forest conditions
“You might get to the point where in some parts of the
West, there are no more forests.”
Don Wuebbles, 2013 Draft NCA

11. Forest Treatments Can Reduce Fire Intensity and
Reduce Snowpack and Water Yield Loss
 Thinning can reduce snow
sublimation by up to 50% (Veatch
et al. 2009)
 Winter ablation in burned areas
reduces snowpack by 50% (Harpold
et al. 2013)

12. Transformational Forest Management Solutions to
Improve Water Availability and Ecosystems
 Improve fire modeling tools to
quantify ecologically and water
shed safe forest thinning
treatments for individual
watersheds
 Thinning could generate as much
as 100 tons per acre of biomass
– volumes compatible with
distributed rural energy uses
such as gasification
 Forest fire fighting and fire
damage costs can approach or
exceed forest thinning costs