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NCLR Economics of SB1070 Presentation
1. SB1070 Doesn’t Work
The Impacts of State-level Immigration Laws
Todd Landfried
Executive Director
Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform
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2. “The greatest threat to democracy
is having a public that thinks it is
fully informed, but really isn’t very
well informed at all.”
Linda Foley
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3. Arizona v. United States
“Arizona bears the brunt of the country’s illegal
immigration problem. Its citizens feel themselves
under siege by large numbers of illegal
immigrants who invade their property, strain
their social services and even place their lives in
jeopardy.”
Justice Scalia
Dissenting Opinion
Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 22 (2012) (Scalia, J. dissenting). 3
4. Arizona v. United States
“...these aliens are reported to be responsible for a
disproportionate share of serious crime.”
“Accounts in the record suggest there is an ‘epidemic of
crime, safety risks, serious property damage, and
environmental problems’ associated with the influx of illegal
migration across private land near the Mexican border.”
Justice Kennedy
Majority Opinion
Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 6 (2012). 4
5. Arizona v. United States
“The problems posed to the State by illegal
immigration must not be underestimated.”
Justice Kennedy
Majority Opinion
Unfortunately, they are being overestimated!
Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 6 (2012). 5
6. “A salient characteristic of the
current debate on U.S.
immigration policy is the high
ratio of hot air to data.”
Dr. Douglas Massey
Co-director, Mexican Migration Project
Princeton University
mmp.opr.princeton.edu
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8. Crime Fallacies
Claim Reality Difference
% in Federal Prison 35% 17.5% +200%
% in AZ Prisons* 33% 13.2% +250%
Hate Crime
Not a problem +68% +6,800%
Increase ‘07-’10
Identity Theft 100% 0.9% -99.1%
* Includes green card and undocumented prisoners
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14. 9 out of 10
Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
15. g
9 out on10
of
W r
Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
16. How’s This Working Out?
U.S. history is replete with examples of bad immigration law:
Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, The Gentleman’s Agreement of 1907, The
Immigration Act of 1924, and Bracero Program of 1942
Prior to SB 1070 “Attrition Through Enforcement” was tried:
Cities: Farmer’s Branch, TX, Freemont, NE and Hazelton, PA
Counties: Prince William County, VA
States: Arizona and Oklahoma
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17. A Local Record of Failure
Prince William County, VA (2007) - $14.9M to train & enforce
county officers, increase property tax rate by $0.15/$1,000;
foreclosure rate 3X regional rate; business closures up 45%
Farmer’s Branch, TX (2007) - $3.2M for lawyers, $5M in settlement
fees, $623,000 in legal set-asides, increased vacancy rates, lower
property values, business reputation damaged, divided community
Hazelton, PA (2007) - $1M for lawyers, $2.4M in settlement fees,
increased foreclosure and vacancy rates, businesses closed,
divided community
Source: Dallas Morning News, April 9, 2010. Hazelton Standard Speaker, Nov. 7, 2010
18. A State Record of Failure
Oklahoma Taxpayer & Citizen Protection Act (2007) - Oklahoma
Bankers Association study found the loss of 90,000 unauthorized
workers/families resulted in net Gross State Product loss of $1.9B
Urban Institute found negligible impact on savings on public services
from departure of the undocumented because by law they’re ineligible
for those benefits in the first place
Despite having examples of universal failure at every level of
government, Arizona passed SB 1070 anyway
Source: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of the Oklahoma Taxpayer and Citizen Protection Act of 2007
19. A Continued Record of Failure
“Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act” -
SB1070 (2010)
$5M+ to train law enforcement
$186M in near-term convention and related tourism losses
$40.7M loss in state tax revenues
$3M+ to defend SB1070 in court, losing on 3/4 of the challenges and
it’s not over
Source: CAP “Rising Tide or Shrinking Pie” 2011 and Arizona Republic June 21, 2012
20. SB1070 Economics
Immigrant Pop. Gross State Tax Revenue
Income Loss Job Loss
Decline Product Loss Loss
15% $8.3B $5.3B 99,000 $636M
30% $14.4B $9.4B 172,000 $1.27B
50% $20B $15.7B 291,000 $2.11B
100% $48.8B $29.5B 581,000 $4.22B
Source: "A Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie," M. Fitz and R. Hinojosa, Immigration Policy Council, March, 2011.
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21. Sound Good?
✓Shrinking workforce
✓Significant population loss
✓Fewer consumers
✓Business layoffs & closures
✓Broad tax base decline
✓Foreclosures up, values down
✓Damage to business climate
✓Loss of investment interest
23. Georgia’s HB 87
Ignoring previous failures, Gov. Deal signed it on May 12, 2011
Georgia felt the impact within days
Farmers lost field workers during prime spring harvest season and the
state’s Farm Bureau projected immediate losses at $330M
Gov. Deal called for impact study 14 days AFTER the law was passed
“Pilot” probationer employment program for agriculture failed
miserably: needed 11,000 and 14 showed up and seven remained a
week later
24. GA Governor: Use Prison Labor
How many support giving prison laborers this knife?
12”
25. Alabama’s HB 56
Ignoring previous failures, Gov. Bentley signed it on June 9, 2011
Alabama felt the impact within days
Construction industry stalled as workers leave, slowing down
rebuilding process following spring tornado storms
Long-term growers of crops that are hand-picked are switching to
crops that can be mechanized
Recent study show community tax receipts are down so low in
agricultural communities, they are considering cutting services
26. Quiz
Doing the same thing over and over and
expecting a different result is the definition of...
INSANITY
27. Spreading The Truth
“What is more, the supposed benefits of S.B. 1070 are illusory and
do not outweigh its burdens. Arizona claims it enacted S.B. 1070
to address the severe fiscal and economic effects of unauthorized
immigrants—specifically, the rising costs of incarceration,
education, and health care. But Arizona’s contentions lack
empirical support. To the contrary, unauthorized immigrants
provide a net benefit to state economies.”
AZEIR Amicus Brief
Source: Brief of Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform,. et. al. As Amici Curiae In Support of Respondent,
No. 11-182, Supreme Ct. Of the US. 25 April 2012. 25
28. Facts + Engagement = Wins
Building coalitions of business, faith, legal and community organizations
can educate the public and defeat SB1070-style bills
Kansas - SB1070 copycat bills DEFEATED TWICE
Mississippi - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED
Missouri - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED
Rhode Island - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED
Texas - 108 immigration bills DEFEATED
West Virginia - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED
29. What You Must Do
These laws have never worked anywhere - Tell people!
Challenge every statement - 9 times out of 10 it’s wrong
Hold public forums to discuss facts and present alternatives
Challenge “rule of law” assumption that current laws are “good”
Business, faith, legal, and community leaders must speak out together
Start demanding state and federal candidates have solutions and
demand specific timelines for action
The greatest threat to Democracy is having a public that thinks it is fully informed, but really isn’t very well informed at all. Too often in this digital age, we jump right to the debate without having the facts. We need good, quality journalism so we the citizens of the United States, who live in a very complex world are able to say “These are the facts. I know what the facts are and I’m going to make my decision as an informed citizen.”\n\nThree things you need to know about this presentation\nParty and ideology have nothing to do with this presentation. It’s only intent is to present facts. \nIt’s purpose is to challenge false beliefs and preconceived notions.\nThe information presented herein are based on verifiable public data obtained from recognized sources with sources listed at the bottom of each slide.\n
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EXAMPLE #4: How exaggerating data distorts public perceptions of the problem.\n\nThis table highlights some of the more egregious falsehoods told on a daily basis about immigrants in Arizona. The data for Texas is similar, but all highlight the problems of rhetoric of "hot air."\n\nPrison population data: http://www.azcorrections.gov/adc/reports/Zoya_ethnic.aspx\nEducation costs data: Estimates based on larger estimate of http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_ill_pe_2010.pdf or http://www.migrationinformation.org/DataHub/charts/MPIDataHub-Children-in-immigrant-families.xls (12.2% or 61,507 undocumented population <=17 yrs x $6,170 = $379,498,190)\nHealth care costs data: Illegal Immigration: Perceptions and Realities, ASU Morrison Inst.\nTax Payments data: &#x201C;A Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie,&#x201D; CAP, http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/special-reports/rising-tide-or-shrinking-pie \n\n\n
EXAMPLE #4 continued: How exaggerating data distorts public perceptions of the problem.\n\nCrime statistics claims don&#x2019;t match up with reality.\n\nFederal Prison data: http://www.bop.gov/news/quick.jsp#2 \nAZ Prison data: http://www.azcorrections.gov/adc/reports/Zoya_ethnic.aspx\nViolent crime data: http://www.azdps.gov/About/Reports/Crime_In_Arizona/\nHate crime data: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr#hate\nID Theft data: http://www.adc.state.az.us/BudgetHearings2012.pdf\n
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Does anyone watch lawyer shows on TV? What do they say in the courtroom when they swear someone in as a witness? They swear to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. The DON&#x2019;T swear to tell the truth, most of the truth or half of the truth.\n
SB1070 has had a brutal impact on Arizona&#x2019;s economy already, but what would happen if all aspects of SB1070 were passed into law? \n\nSuffice it to say, the economic and jobs damage would be enormous. If SB1070 is fully implemented, the impacts on Arizona&#x2019;s economy would be worse than during the last recession by doubling the numbers of lost jobs (275,000 to 581,000) and reducing Gross State Product by $48.8B and tax revenues by $4.2B. \n\nThere has to be a better way and there are better ways. What&#x2019;s important is that you hear about them.\n\nSource: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/03/rising_tide.html \n