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Food
Planet
Health
Healthy Diets From
Sustainable Food Systems
SummaryReportoftheEAT-LancetCommission
Table of Contents
04	 Introduction
06	 The 1 Goal
08	 The 2 Targets
20	 The 5 Strategies
26	 Conclusion
27	 Glossary
28	 The EAT-Lancet Commission
30	 About EAT
Photo credit: Shutterstock (page 8, 20, 22, 24, 25), iStock (page 6), Mollie Katzen (page 11).
This report was prepared by EAT and is an adapted summary of the Commission Food in The Anthropocene:
the EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems. The entire Commission can be
found online at thelancet.com/commissions/EAT.
The EAT-Lancet Commission and this summary report were made possible with the support of Wellcome Trust.
3
Summary Report
Transformation to healthy diets
by 2050 will require substantial
dietary shifts. Global consumption
of fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes
will have to double, and consumption
of foods such as red meat and sugar
will have to be reduced by more than
50%. A diet rich in plant-based foods
and with fewer animal source foods
confers both improved health and
environmental benefits.
Prof. Walter Willett MD
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
4
Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems
Our Food in the
Anthropocene:
Healthy Diets
From Sustainable
Food Systems
Introduction
#foodcanfixit
Without action, the world risks failing to meet the UN
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris
Agreement, and today’s children will inherit a planet that
has been severely degraded and where much of the
population will increasingly suffer from malnutrition and
preventable disease.
5
Summary Report
Figure 1
An integrated agenda for food in the Anthropocene recognizes that food forms an inextricable link between human health and
environmental sustainability. The global food system must operate within boundaries for human health and food production
to ensure healthy diets from sustainable food systems for nearly 10 billion people by 2050.
Food is the single strongest lever to optimize human
health and environmental sustainability on Earth.
However, food is currently threatening both people
and planet. An immense challenge facing human-
ity is to provide a growing world population with
healthy diets from sustainable food systems. While
global food production of calories has generally kept
pace with population growth, more than 820 million
people still lack sufficient food, and many more
consume either low-quality diets or too much food.
Unhealthy diets now pose a greater risk to morbid-
ity and mortality than unsafe sex, alcohol, drug and
tobaccousecombined.Globalfoodproductionthreat-
ens climate stability and ecosystem resilience and
constitutes the single largest driver of environmental
degradation and transgression of planetary bound-
aries. Taken together the outcome is dire. A radi-
cal transformation of the global food system is
urgently needed. Without action, the world risks
failingtomeettheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoals
(SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, and today’s children
will inherit a planet that has been severely degraded
and where much of the population will increasingly
suffer from malnutrition and preventable disease.
There is substantial scientific evidence that links
diets with human health and environmental
sustainability. Yet the absence of globally agreed
scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable
food production has hindered large-scale and coor-
dinated efforts to transform the global food system.
Toaddressthiscriticalneed,theEAT-LancetCommis-
sion convened 37 leading scientists from 16 countries
in various disciplines including human health, agri-
culture, political sciences and environmental sustain-
ability to develop global scientific targets for healthy
diets and sustainable food production. This is the first
attempt to set universal scientific targets for the food
system that apply to all people and the planet.
The Commission focuses on two “end-points” of the
global food system: final consumption (healthy di-
ets) and production (sustainable food production, see
Figure 1). These factors disproportionately impact
human health and environmental sustainability. The
Commission acknowledges that food systems have
environmental impacts along the entire supply chain
from production to processing and retail, and further-
more reach beyond human and environmental health
by also affecting society, culture, economy, and animal
health and welfare. However, given the breadth and
depth of each of these topics, it was necessary to place
many important issues outside the scope of the Com-
mission.
Food is the single strongest lever
to optimize human health and
environmental sustainability on Earth.
Health bo
undaries
Planetaryb
oundaries
Foodsystem
6
Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems
To Achieve
Planetary Health
Diets for Nearly
10 Billion People
by 2050
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
#foodcanfixit
7
Summary Report
A large body of work has emerged on the environ-
mental impacts of various diets, with most studies
concluding that a diet rich in plant-based foods
and with fewer animal source foods confers both
improved health and environmental benefits.
Overall, the literature indicates that such diets are
“win-win” in that they are good for both people and
planet. However, there is still no global consensus on
what constitutes healthy diets and sustainable food
production and whether planetary health diets*
may be achieved for a global population of 10 bil-
lion people by 2050.
By assessing the existing scientific evidence, the
Commission developed global scientific targets for
healthy diets and sustainable food production and
integrated these universal scientific targets into a
common framework, the safe operating space for
food systems, so that planetary health diets (both
healthy and environmentally sustainable) could be
identified. This safe operating space is defined by sci-
entific targets for intakes of specific food groups (e.g.
100 to 300 g/day of fruit) to optimize human health
and scientific targets for sustainable food production
to ensure a stable Earth system (see Figure 2).
The boundaries of the safe operating space are placed
at the lower end of the scientific uncertainty range,
establishing a "safe space" which, if transgressed,
would push humanity into an uncertainty zone of ris-
ing risks. Operating outside this space for any Earth
system process (e.g. high rates of biodiversity loss)
or food group (e.g. insufficient vegetable intake) in-
creases the risk of harm to the stability of the Earth
system and human health. When viewed together as
an integrated health and sustainability agenda, the
scientific targets that define a safe operating
space for food systems allow the evaluation of
which diets and food production practices to-
gether will enable achievement of the SDGs and
the Paris Agreement.
*Planetary health refers to the “the health of human civilization and the state of the natural systems on which it depends”. This concept was put
forth in 2015 by the Rockefeller Foundation-Lancet Commission on planetary health to transform the field of public health, which has tradition-
ally focused on the health of human populations without considering natural systems. The EAT-Lancet Commission builds upon the concept of
planetary health and puts forth the new term “planetary health diet” to highlight the critical role that diets play in linking human health and envi-
ronmental sustainability and the need to integrate these often-separate agendas into a common global agenda for food system transformation
to achieve the SDGs and Paris Agreement.
LO
S
E-W
IN
LO
SE
-LO
SE
W
I
N
-W
IN
W
IN-L
O
SE
Scientific targets define the safe operating space for food
systems and are represented here by the orange ring. The
wedges represent either dietary patterns or food produc-
tion, and together they reflect various dietary patterns that
may or may not meet scientific targets for human health and
environmental sustainability, i.e. outside of the safe
operating space. These dietary patterns can be “healthy and
unsustainable” (win-lose), “unhealthy and sustainable” (lose-
win), “unhealthy and unsustainable” (lose-lose) and “healthy
and sustainable” (win-win).
Figure 2
8
Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems
Setting Scientific
Targets for
Healthy Diets and
Sustainable Food
Production
#foodcanfixit
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
9
Summary Report
Dairy foods
Plant sourced protein
Animal sourced protein
Unsaturatedplantoils
Addedsugars
W
holegrains
Starchy vegetables
Beef, lamb and pork
Poultry
Eggs
Fish
Legumes
Nuts
Target 1
Healthy Diets
Figure 3
A planetary health plate should consist by volume of approximately half a plate of vegetables and fruits; the other half,
displayed by contribution to calories, should consist of primarily whole grains, plant protein sources, unsaturated plant oils,
and (optionally) modest amounts of animal sources of protein. For further details, please refer to section 1 of the Commission.
A healthy diet should optimize health, defined broad-
ly as being a state of complete physical, mental and
social well-being and not merely the absence of dis-
ease. Scientific targets for healthy diets are based on
the extensive literature on foods, dietary patterns
and health outcomes (see Table 1).
Healthy diets have an optimal caloric intake and con-
sist largely of a diversity of plant-based foods, low
amounts of animal source foods, contain unsaturated
rather than saturated fats, and limited amounts of re-
fined grains, highly processed foods and added sugars.
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
Macronutrient intake
grams per day
(possible range)
Caloric intake
kcal per day
Whole grains
Rice, wheat, corn and other 232 811
Tubers or starchy vegetables
Potatoes and cassava 50 (0–100) 39
Vegetables
All vegetables 300 (200–600) 78
Fruits
All fruits 200 (100–300) 126
Dairy foods
Whole milk or equivalents 250 (0–500) 153
Protein sources
Beef, lamb and pork
Chicken and other poultry
Eggs
Fish
Legumes
Nuts
14 (0–28)
29 (0–58)
13 (0–25)
28 (0–100)
75 (0–100)
50 (0–75)
30
62
19
40
284
291
Added fats
Unsaturated oils
Saturated oils
40 (20–80)
11.8 (0-11.8)
354
96
Added sugars
All sugars 31 (0–31) 120
Table 1
Scientific targets for a planetary health diet, with possible ranges, for an intake of 2500 kcal/day.
Target 1
Healthy Diets
Although the planetary health diet, which is based on health considerations, is consistent with many traditional eating patterns, it does not imply that the
global population should eat exactly the same food, nor does it prescribe an exact diet. Instead, the planetary health diet outlines empirical food groups
and ranges of food intakes, which combined in a diet, would optimize human health. Local interpretation and adaptation of the universally-applicable
planetary health diet is necessary and should reflect the culture, geography and demography of the population and individuals.
10
Summary Report
11
The plates below are examples
of a planetary health diet. This is
a flexitarian diet, which is largely
plant-based but can optionally
include modest amounts of fish,
meat and dairy foods.
10 10 2
15
17
12
Sub-Saharan Africa
293%
288%
153%
Health boundary
100%
100%
729%
GLOBAL
Transformation to healthy diets
by 2050 will require substantial
dietary shifts.
This includes a more than doubling in the con-
sumption of healthy foods such as fruits, veg-
etables, legumes and nuts, and a greater than
50% reduction in global consumption of less
healthy foods such as added sugars and red meat
(i.e. primarily by reducing excessive consumption
in wealthier countries). However, some populations
worldwide depend on agropastoral livelihoods and
animal protein from livestock. In addition, many
populations continue to face significant burdens of
undernutrition and obtaining adequate quantities of
micronutrients from plant source foods alone can be
difficult. Given these considerations, the role of ani-
mal source foods in people’s diets must be carefully
considered in each context and within local and re-
gional realities.
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
13
Summary Report
North America
South Asia
100%
638%
268%
234%
171%
145%
100%
125%
Figure 4
The “diet gap” between current dietary
patterns and intakes of food in the
planetary health diet.
Limited intake
Red meat
Fish Vegetables Fruit Legumes Whole grains Nuts
Eggs Poultry Dairy foods
Starchy
vegetables
Optional foods
Emphasized foods
14
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
Table 2
Estimated deaths prevented among adults by a global adoption of the planetary health diet.
Dietary changes from current
diets toward healthy diets are
likely to result in significant
health benefits.
The Commission analyzed the potential impacts
of dietary change on diet-related disease mortali-
ty using three approaches (see Table 2). All three
approaches concluded that dietary changes from
current diets toward healthy diets are likely to
result in major health benefits. This includes pre-
venting approximately 11 million deaths per year,
which represent between 19% to 24% of total deaths
among adults.
Approach 1
Comparative Risk 19% or 11.1 million
adult deaths per year
Approach 2
Global Burden of Disease 22.4% or 10.8 million
adult deaths per year
Approach 3
Empirical Disease Risk 23.6% or 11.6 million
adult deaths per year
15
Summary Report
Table 3
Scientific targets for six key Earth system processes and the control variables used to quantify the boundaries.
Target 2
Sustainable
Food Production
Interacting biogeophysical systems and processes in
the Earth system, in particular between the climate
system and the biosphere, regulate the state of the
planet. The Commission focuses on six of these (Table
3),which are the main systems and processes affected
by food production and for which scientific evidence
allows the provision of quantifiable targets. These
systems and processes are being increasingly rec-
ognized as necessary parameters for a system-wide
definition of sustainable food production. For each of
these, the Commission proposes boundaries that
global food production should stay within to de-
crease the risk of irreversible and potentially
catastrophic shifts in the Earth system. These
planetary boundaries for food production conceptu-
ally define the upper limit of environmental effects
for food production at the global scale.
For the climate change boundary for food produc-
tion, the underlying assumption that has been ap-
plied is that the world will follow the Paris Agree-
ment (keeping global warming to well below 2°C,
aiming for 1.5°C) and decarbonize the global energy
system by 2050. It has also been assumed that world
agriculture will transition toward sustainable food
production, leading to a shift from land use being a
net source of carbon to becoming a net sink of car-
bon. The boundary estimate is thereby an assess-
ment of the maximum amount of non-CO2
gases (i.e.
methane and nitrous oxide) that have been assessed
as both necessary and hard to further reduce – at
least before 2050 – in order to achieve both healthy
diets for everyone on the planet and the targets of the
Paris Agreement.
Earth system process Control variable Boundary
(Uncertainty range)
Climate change GHG emissions
5 Gt CO2
-eq yr−1
(4.7 – 5.4 Gt CO2-eq yr−1
)
Land-system change Cropland use
13 M km2
(11–15 M km²)
Freshwater use Water use
2,500 km3
yr−1
(1000–4000 km³ yr−1
)
Nitrogen cycling N application
90 Tg N yr−1
(65–90 Tg N yr−1
) *
(90–130 Tg N yr−1
)**
Phosphorus cycling P application
8 Tg P yr−1
(6–12 Tg P yr−1
) *
(8–16 Tg P yr−1
)**
Biodiversity loss Extinction rate
10 E/MSY
(1–80 E/MSY)
*Lower boundary range if improved production practices and redistribution are not adopted.
**Upper boundary range if improved production practices and redistribution are adopted and 50% of
applied phosphorus is recycled.
N
P
16
Achieving a sustainable food system that can deliv-
er healthy diets for a growing population presents
formidable challenges. Finding solutions to these
challenges requires an understanding of the envi-
ronmental impacts of various actions. The readily
implementable actions investigated by the Commis-
sion were: 1) A global shift toward healthy diets; 2)
improved food production practices; and 3) reduced
food loss and waste (see Table 4). The Commission’s
aim was to identify a set of actions that meet the
scientific targets for healthy diets and sustaina-
ble food production, which will allow for a tran-
sition of the global food system to within the safe
operating space.
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
Achieving planetary health diets. Applying this framework to future projections of
world development indicates that food systems can
provide healthy diets (defined here as a reference
diet) for an estimated population of about 10 billion
people by 2050 and remain within a safe operating
space. However, even small increases in the con-
sumption of red meat or dairy foods would make this
goal difficult or impossible to achieve. The analysis
shows that staying within the safe operating space for
food systems requires a combination of substan-
tial shifts toward mostly plant-based dietary
patterns, dramatic reductions in food losses and
waste, and major improvements in food produc-
tion practices. While some individual actions are
enough to stay within specific boundaries, no single
intervention is enough to stay below all boundaries
simultaneously.
Table 4
Actions considered for reducing environmental impacts from food production.
Actions Description
Dietary shift
Planetary health diet
Planetary health diet – as outlined in Table 1.
Halve waste
Reduced food loss and waste
Food losses and waste reduced by half, in line with SDG target 12.3.
PROD
Improved production practices
Standard level of ambition
Closing of yield gaps to about 75%; rebalancing nitrogen and phosphorus
fertilizer application between over and under-applying regions; improving
water management; and implementation of agricultural mitigation options
that are economic at the projected social cost of carbon in 2050.
For biodiversity, it was assumed that land is expanded first into secondary
habitat or other managed ecosystems and then to intact forests.
PROD+
Improved production practices
High level of ambition
High level of ambition practices on top of PROD scenario, including closing yield
gaps to 90%; a 30% increase in nitrogen use efficiency, and 50% recycling rates
of phosphorus; phase-out of first-generation biofuels, and implementation of all
available bottom-up options for mitigating food-related GHG emissions.
For biodiversity, it was assumed that land use is optimized across regions such
that it minimizes impacts on biodiversity.
17
Summary Report
Table 5
Various scenarios demonstrating the environmental impacts of implementing the action outlined in Table 4. The colors
illustrate whether environmental impacts transgress food production boundaries: green - below lower range value;
light green - below or equal to boundary but above lower range value; yellow - above boundary but below upper range
value; red - above upper range value. BAU indicates business as usual scenario.
GHG
emissions
Cropland use Water use Nitrogen
application
Phosphorus
application
Biodiversity
loss
Food production boundary 5.0
(4.7–5.4)
13
(11.0–15.0)
2.5
(1.0–4.0)
90
(65.0–140.0)
8
(6.0–16.0)
10
(1–80)
Baseline in 2010 5.2 12.6 1.8 131.8 17.9 100–1000
Production
(2050)
Waste
(2050)
Diet
(2050)
BAU Full waste BAU 9.8 21.1 3.0 199.5 27.5 1,043
BAU Full waste Dietary shift 5.0 21.1 3.0 191.4 25.5 1,270
BAU Halve waste BAU 9.2 18.2 2.6 171.0 23.2 684
BAU Halve waste Dietary shift 4.5 18.1 2.6 162.6 21.2 885
PROD Full waste BAU 8.9 14.8 2.2 187.3 25.5 206
PROD Full waste Dietary shift 4.5 14.8 2.2 179.5 24.1 351
PROD Halve waste BAU 8.3 12.7 1.9 160.1 21.5 50
PROD Halve waste Dietary shift 4.1 12.7 1.9 151.7 20.0 102
PROD+ Full waste BAU 8.7 13.1 2.2 147.6 16.5 37
PROD+ Full waste Dietary shift 4.4 12.8 2.1 140.8 15.4 34
PROD+ Halve waste BAU 8.1 11.3 1.9 128.2 14.2 21
PROD+ Halve waste Dietary shift 4.0 11.0 1.9 121.3 13.1 19
N P
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
Baseline projections of environmental
pressures in 2050
Dietary Shift
Planetary Health Diet
Halve waste
Reduced food loss and waste
PROD
Improved production practices
Standard level of ambition
PROD+
Improved production practices
High level of ambition
COMB+
Combination of actions
High level of ambition
Planetary
boundary
Uncertainty
range
COMB
Combination of actions
Standard level of ambition
Planetary boundary
Uncertainty range
Standard level of ambition
PROD+
Improved production practices
High level of ambition
Standard level of ambition
COMB+
Combination of actions
High level of ambition
Biodiversityloss
GHG emissions
Croplanduse
W
ateruse
N application
Papplication
100%
10,000%
N
P
Impacts of a global shift toward planetary health diets, improved food
production practices and reductions in food loss and waste from base-
line projections of environmental pressures in 2050. The readily imple-
mentable actions and their combination are depicted as reductions from
the 2050 baseline projections for each boundary. The aim is to find an
action or set of actions that reduces the impact to within the uncertainty
range (grey shading) or boundary (100% dashed line). For example, the
dietary shift wedge that ends at 100% the GHG emissions boundary
indicates that a dietary shift can reduce the projected increase of GHG
emissions from 196% of present impacts to the boundary of 5 Gt CO2
-
eq yr-1, which represents a reduction of 49% or 96 percentage points.
Improved production practices (PROD) and reduced food loss and waste
(halve waste) only reduce impacts by 18 percentage points and 12 per-
centage points respectively, both of which remain well above both the
GHG emissions boundary and the uncertainty range. A combination of
actions with a standard level of ambition (COMB) reduces the impact by
114 percentage points, which is well below the boundary. For biodiversity
loss, only the impact of the most ambitious combination of actions is
shown (COMB+), as only this level of action reduces the impact to within
the uncertainty range (grey shading) for the biodiversity loss boundary.
Figure 5
19
Summary Report
Prof. Johan Rockström PhD
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research  Stockholm Resilience Centre
Global food production threatens
climate stability and ecosystem
resilience. It constitutes the single
largest driver of environmental
degradation and transgression
of planetary boundaries. Taken
together the outcome is dire.
A radical transformation of the
global food system is urgently
needed. Without action, the
world risks failing to meet the
UN Sustainable Development
Goals and the Paris Agreement.
20
Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems
Humanity has never before set out to radically
change the food system at the scale or speed envis-
aged by the Commission. There are no “silver bullet”
solutions to the problems. Hard work, political will
and sufficient resources are required. Opponents
will warn of unintended consequences or argue that
the case for action is premature or should be left
to existing dynamics. This Commission disagrees.
1 Goal — 2 Targets — 5 Strategies
The data are both sufficient and strong enough to warrant immediate
action. Delaying action will only increase the likelihood of serious, even
disastrous, consequences.
#foodcanfixit
Five Strategies for
a Great Food
Transformation
The data are both sufficient and strong enough
to warrant immediate action. Delaying action
will only increase the likelihood of serious, even
disastrous, consequences. It is clear too that a
Great Food Transformation will not occur without
widespread multi-sector, multi-level action, which
must be guided by scientific targets.
21
Summary Report
1
Strategy 1
Seek international and
national commitment to
shift toward healthy diets
Table 6
Predicted change in food production from 2010 to 2050 (percent from 2010 scenario) for the business as usual (BAU)
with full waste, the planetary health diet with full waste, and the planetary health diet with halve waste scenarios.
The scientific targets set out by this Commission provide guidance for the necessary shift,
recommending increased consumption of plant-based foods – including fruits, vegeta-
bles, nuts, seeds and whole grains – while in many settings substantially limiting ani-
mal source foods. This concerted commitment can be achieved by making healthy foods more
available, accessible and affordable in place of unhealthier alternatives, improving information
and food marketing, investing in public health information and sustainability education, imple-
menting food-based dietary guidelines, and using health care services to deliver dietary advice
and interventions.
0%
–50%
Whole
grains
Starchy
vegetables
Vegetables Fruits Dairy Dry beans
Lentils
Peas
Soy
NutsRed meat
Protein sources
Poultry Eggs Fish
–100%
150%
200%
250%
100%
50%
2050 BAU + full waste 2050 planetary health diet + full waste 2050 planetary health diet + halve waste
22
2
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
Strategy 2
Reorient agricultural priorities
from producing high quantities
of food to producing healthy food
Agriculture and fisheries must not only produce enough calories to feed a growing global
population but must also produce a diversity of foods that nurture human health and
support environmental sustainability. Alongside dietary shifts, agricultural and marine pol-
icies must be reoriented toward a variety of nutritious foods that enhance biodiversity rather
than aiming for increased volume of a few crops, much of which is now used for animal feed.
Livestock production needs to be considered in specific contexts.
23
Summary Report
3
Strategy 3
Sustainably intensify food
production to increase
high-quality output
The current global food system requires a new agricultural revolution that is based on sus-
tainable intensification and driven by sustainability and system innovation. This would
entail at least a 75% reduction of yield gaps on current cropland, radical improvements in ferti-
lizer and water use efficiency, recycling of phosphorus, redistribution of global use of nitrogen
and phosphorus, implementing climate mitigation options including changes in crop and feed
management, and enhancing biodiversity within agricultural systems. In addition, to achieve
negative emissions globally as per the Paris Agreement, the global food system must become a
net carbon sink from 2040 and onward.
24
4This implies feeding humanity on existing agricultural land i.e. by implementing a zero-ex-
pansion policy of new agricultural land into natural ecosystems and species-rich forests, aiming
management policies at restoring and reforesting degraded land, establishing international land
use governance mechanisms, and adopting a Half Earth strategy for biodiversity conser-
vation (i.e. conserve at least 80% of preindustrial species richness by protecting the remaining
50% of Earth as intact ecosystems). Moreover, there is a need to improve the management of
the world’s oceans to ensure that fisheries do not negatively impact ecosystems, fish stocks are
utilized responsibly, and global aquaculture production is expanded sustainably.
Strategy 4
Strong and coordinated
governance of land and oceans
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
25
Summary Report
5
Strategy 5
At least halve food losses and
waste, in line with UN Sustainable
Development Goals
Substantially reducing food losses at the production side and food waste at the consum-
ption side is essential for the global food system to stay within a safe operating space. Both
technological solutions applied along the food supply chain and implementation of public poli-
cies are required in order to achieve an overall 50% reduction in global food loss and waste as per
the targets of the SDGs. Actions include improving post-harvest infrastructure, food transport,
processing and packing, increasing collaboration along the supply chain, training and equipping
producers, and educating consumers.
26
Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems
calls for widespread multi-sector, multi-level action
including: a substantial global shift toward healthy
dietary patterns; large reductions in food loss and
waste; and major improvements in food production
practices. The data are both sufficient and strong
enough to warrant immediate action.
Food will be a defining issue of the 21st century. Un-
locking its potential will catalyse the achievement
of both the SDGs and Paris Agreement. An unprec-
edented opportunity exists to develop food systems
as a common thread between many international,
national, and business policy frameworks aiming for
improved human health and environmental sustain-
ability. Establishing clear, scientific targets to guide
food system transformation is an important step in
realizing this opportunity.
Conclusion
How food is produced, what is consumed, and how
much is lost or wasted all heavily shape the health of
both people and planet. The EAT-Lancet Commission
presents an integrated global framework and for the
first time, provides quantitative scientific targets for
healthy diets and sustainable food production. The
Commission shows that feeding 10 billion people a
healthy diet within safe planetary boundaries for food
production by 2050 is both possible and necessary.
It also demonstrates that the universal adoption of
a planetary health diet would help avoid severe en-
vironmental degradation and prevent approximate-
ly 11 million human deaths annually. However, to
safeguard the natural systems and processes that
humanity depends on and that ultimately determine
the stability of the Earth system will require no less
than a Great Food Transformation. The Commission
The global adoption of healthy diets from sustainable food systems
would safeguard our planet and improve the health of billions.
The data are both sufficient
and strong enough to warrant
immediate action.
Food will be a defining issue of the
21st century. Unlocking its potential
will catalyse the achievement of both
the SDGs and Paris Agreement.
27
Summary Report
Anthropocene
A proposed new geological
epoch that is characterized
by humanity being the
dominating force of change
on the planet.
?
Great Food Transformation
The unprecedented range of actions taken by all food system sectors across
alllevelsthataimtonormalisehealthydietsfromsustainablefoodsystems.?
Safe operating space for
food systems
A space that is defined by
scientific targets for human
health and environmentally
sustainable food production
set by this Commission.
Operating within this space
allows humanity to feed
healthy diets to about 10
billion people within the
biophysical limits of the
Earth system.
?
Food loss and food waste
The terms “food loss” and “food waste” have distinct meanings as they occur at different stages of the food value chain.
“Food loss” occurs before the food reaches the consumer as an unintended result of agricultural processes or technical
limitations in the production, storage, processing and distribution phases. On the other hand, “food waste” refers to
good quality food fit for consumption that is consciously discarded at the retail and consumption stages.
?
Boundaries
Thresholds set at the low end of the scientific uncertainty range that serve
as guides for decisionmakers on acceptable levels of risk. Boundaries are
baselines, unchanging and not time-bound.
?
Food system
All elements and activities that relate to production, processing,
distribution, preparation and consumption of food. This Commission
focuses on two end-points of the global food system; final consumption
(healthy diets) and production (sustainable food production).
?
Biosphere
All parts of the Earth where life
exists including the lithosphere
(solid surface layer), hydrosphere
(water) and atmosphere (air). The
biosphere plays an important part
in regulating the Earth system by
driving energy and nutrient flow
between components.
?
Planetary boundaries
Nine boundaries, each representing a system or process that is important
for regulating and maintaining stability of the planet. They define global
biophysical limits that humanity should operate within to ensure a stable
and resilient Earth system—i.e. conditions that are necessary to foster
prosperity for future generations.
?
Earth system
Earth’s interacting physical, chemical and biological processes consisting
of land, oceans, atmosphere and poles, and include Earth’s natural cycles—
i.e. carbon, water, nitrogen, phosphorus and other cycles. Life, including
human society, is an integral part of the Earth system and affects these
natural cycles.
?
Glossary
28
Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems
The EAT-Lancet
Commission
Co-chaired by Prof. Walter Willett and Prof. Johan Rockström, the
EAT-Lancet Commission brought together 19 Commissioners and 18
co-authors from 16 countries in various fields including human health,
agriculture, political science and environmental sustainability.
Prof. Walter Willett MD
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,
Harvard Medical School  Channing
Division of Network Medicine, Brigham
and Women’s Hospital
The Stockholm Resilience Centre hosted the EAT-Lancet Commission secretariat and co-led the Commission’s
research activities with EAT. All Commissioners and co-authors contributed to the manuscript ideas, structure,
and reviewing and have seen and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Prof. Johan Rockström PhD
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research  Stockholm Resilience Centre
Commissioners
Prof. Tim Lang PhD
Centre for Food Policy,
City, University of London
Dr. Sonja Vermeulen
PhD
World Wide Fund for
Nature International
 Hoffmann Centre for
Sustainable Resource
Economy, Chatham House
Dr. Tara Garnett PhD
Food Climate Research
Network, Environmental
Change Institute and
Oxford Martin School,
University of Oxford
Dr. David Tilman PhD
Department of Ecology,
Evolution and Behavior,
University of Minnesota
 Bren School of
Environmental Science
and Management,
University of California
Dr. Jessica Fanzo PhD
Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies,
Berman Institute of
Bioethics and Bloomberg
School of Public Health,
Johns Hopkins University
Prof. Corinna Hawkes
PhD
Centre for Food Policy,
City, University of London
Dr. Rami Zurayk PhD
Department of Landscape
Design and Ecosystem
Management, Faculty
of Agricultural and Food
Sciences, American
University of Beirut
Dr. Juan A. Rivera PhD
National Institute of
Public Health of Mexico
Dr. Lindiwe Majele Siban-
da PhD
Global Alliance for
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Dr. Rina Agustina MD
Department of Nutrition,
Faculty of Medicine,
Universitas Indonesia
Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo
General Hospital  Human
Nutrition Research Center,
Indonesian Medical
Education and Research
Institute, Faculty of Med-
icine, Universitas Indo-
nesia
Dr. Francesco Branca
MD
Department of Nutrition
for Health and Devel-
opment, World Health
Organization
Dr. Anna Lartey PhD
Nutrition and Food Sys-
tems Division, Economic
and Social Development
Department, Food and
Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Dr. Shenggen Fan PhD
International Food Policy
Research Institute,
University of Washington
Prof. K. Srinath Reddy
DM
Public Health Foundation
of India
Dr. Sunita Narain PhD
Centre for Science and
Environment
Dr. Sania Nishtar MD
Heartfile  WHO
Independent High-Level
Commission on Non-
communicable Diseases
 Benazir Income Support
Programme
Prof. Christopher J.L.
Murray MD
Institute for Health
Metrics and Evaluation,
University of Washington
Co-authors
Dr. Brent Loken PhD
EAT  Stockholm
Resilience Centre
Dr. Marco Springmann PhD
Oxford Martin Programme
on the Future of Food
and Centre on Population
Approaches for Non-
Communicable
Disease Prevention, Nuff-
ield Department of Popu-
lation Health, University
of Oxford
Dr. Fabrice DeClerck PhD
EAT  Stockholm Resil-
ience Centre  Bioversity
International, CGIAR
Dr. Amanda Wood PhD
EAT  Stockholm
Resilience Centre
Dr. Malin Jonell PhD
Stockholm Resilience
Centre
Dr. Michael Clark PhD
Natural Resources Sci-
ence and Management,
University of Minnesota
Dr. Line J. Gordon PhD
Stockholm Resilience
Centre
Prof. Wim De Vries PhD
Environmental Systems
Analysis Group, Wage-
ningen University and
Research
Dr. Ashkan Afshin MD
Institute for Health
Metrics and Evaluation,
University of Washington
Dr. Abhishek Chaudhary
PhD
Institute of Food, Nutrition
and Health, ETH Zurich 
Department of Civil Engi-
neering, Indian Institute of
Technology
Dr. Mario Herrero PhD
Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research
Organisation
Dr. Beatrice Crona PhD
Stockholm Resilience
Centre
Dr. Elizabeth Fox PhD
Berman Institute of
Bioethics, Johns Hopkins
University
Ms. Victoria Bignet MSc
Stockholm Resilience
Centre
Dr. Max Troell PhD
Stockholm Resilience
Centre  The Beijer
Institute of Ecological
Economics, Royal
Swedish Academy of
Sciences
Dr. Therese Lindahl PhD
Stockholm Resilience
Centre  The Beijer
Institute of Ecological
Economics, Royal
Swedish Academy of
Sciences
Dr. Sudhvir Singh
MBChB
EAT  University of
Auckland
Dr. Sarah E. Cornell PhD
Stockholm Resilience
Centre
30
Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems
EAT is a global, non-profit foundation established by the Stordalen
Foundation, Stockholm Resilience Centre and Wellcome Trust to
catalyze a food system transformation.
About EAT
Our values:
·	 Scale bold systems change
based on solid science
·	 Accelerate impact through
collaboration
·	 Deliver disruptive solutions,
where others can’t
·	 Embody diversity, honesty
and integrity
·	 Champion fairness and
equity, leaving no one behind
ACTIO N
KNOWLED
G
E EN
G
AGEMENT
TRANSFORMING
THE GLOBAL
FOOD SYSTEM
KNOWLEDGE
Identifying ques
Generating kno
ENGAGEMENT
Amplifying the
Engaging stakeh
ACTION
Translating kno
Scaling up actio
impact at scale
BUSINESS
SCIENCE POLICY
ACTIO N
KNOWLED
G
E EN
G
AGEMENT
TRANSFORMING
THE GLOBAL
FOOD SYSTEM
KNOWLEDGE
Identifying q
Generating k
ENGAGEMEN
Amplifying t
Engaging sta
ACTION
Translating k
Scaling up a
impact at sc
BUSINESS
SCIENCE POLICY
To address these challenges, we use a framework for
change that sets up a dynamic three-way interaction
across knowledge, engagement and action. The gen-
eration of new knowledge provides direction and an
evidence base for change. Creative engagement with
partners across business, policy and science amplifies
messages and spurs action for change. Partnerships
inspired through engagement and informed by knowl-
edge enable actions leading to change and impact at
scale.
Our approach to food system transformation coupled
with our framework for change constitute our DNA.
Our vision:
A fair and sustainable global
food system for healthy
people and planet
– leaving no one behind.
Our mission:
Transform our global food
system through sound
science, impatient disruption
and novel partnerships.
To ensure success, we connect and partner across
science, policy, business and civil society to achieve five
urgent and radical transformations by 2050:
•	 Shift the world to healthy, tasty and
sustainable diets
•	 Realign food system priorities for people
and planet
•	 Produce more of the right food, from less
•	 Safeguard our land and oceans
•	 Radically reduce food losses	and waste
EAT is the science-based
global platform for food
system transformation
#foodcanfixit

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EAT - Food Plant Health - The Lancet Commission 2019

  • 1. Food Planet Health Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems SummaryReportoftheEAT-LancetCommission
  • 2. Table of Contents 04 Introduction 06 The 1 Goal 08 The 2 Targets 20 The 5 Strategies 26 Conclusion 27 Glossary 28 The EAT-Lancet Commission 30 About EAT Photo credit: Shutterstock (page 8, 20, 22, 24, 25), iStock (page 6), Mollie Katzen (page 11). This report was prepared by EAT and is an adapted summary of the Commission Food in The Anthropocene: the EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems. The entire Commission can be found online at thelancet.com/commissions/EAT. The EAT-Lancet Commission and this summary report were made possible with the support of Wellcome Trust.
  • 3. 3 Summary Report Transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require substantial dietary shifts. Global consumption of fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes will have to double, and consumption of foods such as red meat and sugar will have to be reduced by more than 50%. A diet rich in plant-based foods and with fewer animal source foods confers both improved health and environmental benefits. Prof. Walter Willett MD Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
  • 4. 4 Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems Our Food in the Anthropocene: Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems Introduction #foodcanfixit Without action, the world risks failing to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, and today’s children will inherit a planet that has been severely degraded and where much of the population will increasingly suffer from malnutrition and preventable disease.
  • 5. 5 Summary Report Figure 1 An integrated agenda for food in the Anthropocene recognizes that food forms an inextricable link between human health and environmental sustainability. The global food system must operate within boundaries for human health and food production to ensure healthy diets from sustainable food systems for nearly 10 billion people by 2050. Food is the single strongest lever to optimize human health and environmental sustainability on Earth. However, food is currently threatening both people and planet. An immense challenge facing human- ity is to provide a growing world population with healthy diets from sustainable food systems. While global food production of calories has generally kept pace with population growth, more than 820 million people still lack sufficient food, and many more consume either low-quality diets or too much food. Unhealthy diets now pose a greater risk to morbid- ity and mortality than unsafe sex, alcohol, drug and tobaccousecombined.Globalfoodproductionthreat- ens climate stability and ecosystem resilience and constitutes the single largest driver of environmental degradation and transgression of planetary bound- aries. Taken together the outcome is dire. A radi- cal transformation of the global food system is urgently needed. Without action, the world risks failingtomeettheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, and today’s children will inherit a planet that has been severely degraded and where much of the population will increasingly suffer from malnutrition and preventable disease. There is substantial scientific evidence that links diets with human health and environmental sustainability. Yet the absence of globally agreed scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production has hindered large-scale and coor- dinated efforts to transform the global food system. Toaddressthiscriticalneed,theEAT-LancetCommis- sion convened 37 leading scientists from 16 countries in various disciplines including human health, agri- culture, political sciences and environmental sustain- ability to develop global scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production. This is the first attempt to set universal scientific targets for the food system that apply to all people and the planet. The Commission focuses on two “end-points” of the global food system: final consumption (healthy di- ets) and production (sustainable food production, see Figure 1). These factors disproportionately impact human health and environmental sustainability. The Commission acknowledges that food systems have environmental impacts along the entire supply chain from production to processing and retail, and further- more reach beyond human and environmental health by also affecting society, culture, economy, and animal health and welfare. However, given the breadth and depth of each of these topics, it was necessary to place many important issues outside the scope of the Com- mission. Food is the single strongest lever to optimize human health and environmental sustainability on Earth. Health bo undaries Planetaryb oundaries Foodsystem
  • 6. 6 Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems To Achieve Planetary Health Diets for Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies #foodcanfixit
  • 7. 7 Summary Report A large body of work has emerged on the environ- mental impacts of various diets, with most studies concluding that a diet rich in plant-based foods and with fewer animal source foods confers both improved health and environmental benefits. Overall, the literature indicates that such diets are “win-win” in that they are good for both people and planet. However, there is still no global consensus on what constitutes healthy diets and sustainable food production and whether planetary health diets* may be achieved for a global population of 10 bil- lion people by 2050. By assessing the existing scientific evidence, the Commission developed global scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production and integrated these universal scientific targets into a common framework, the safe operating space for food systems, so that planetary health diets (both healthy and environmentally sustainable) could be identified. This safe operating space is defined by sci- entific targets for intakes of specific food groups (e.g. 100 to 300 g/day of fruit) to optimize human health and scientific targets for sustainable food production to ensure a stable Earth system (see Figure 2). The boundaries of the safe operating space are placed at the lower end of the scientific uncertainty range, establishing a "safe space" which, if transgressed, would push humanity into an uncertainty zone of ris- ing risks. Operating outside this space for any Earth system process (e.g. high rates of biodiversity loss) or food group (e.g. insufficient vegetable intake) in- creases the risk of harm to the stability of the Earth system and human health. When viewed together as an integrated health and sustainability agenda, the scientific targets that define a safe operating space for food systems allow the evaluation of which diets and food production practices to- gether will enable achievement of the SDGs and the Paris Agreement. *Planetary health refers to the “the health of human civilization and the state of the natural systems on which it depends”. This concept was put forth in 2015 by the Rockefeller Foundation-Lancet Commission on planetary health to transform the field of public health, which has tradition- ally focused on the health of human populations without considering natural systems. The EAT-Lancet Commission builds upon the concept of planetary health and puts forth the new term “planetary health diet” to highlight the critical role that diets play in linking human health and envi- ronmental sustainability and the need to integrate these often-separate agendas into a common global agenda for food system transformation to achieve the SDGs and Paris Agreement. LO S E-W IN LO SE -LO SE W I N -W IN W IN-L O SE Scientific targets define the safe operating space for food systems and are represented here by the orange ring. The wedges represent either dietary patterns or food produc- tion, and together they reflect various dietary patterns that may or may not meet scientific targets for human health and environmental sustainability, i.e. outside of the safe operating space. These dietary patterns can be “healthy and unsustainable” (win-lose), “unhealthy and sustainable” (lose- win), “unhealthy and unsustainable” (lose-lose) and “healthy and sustainable” (win-win). Figure 2
  • 8. 8 Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems Setting Scientific Targets for Healthy Diets and Sustainable Food Production #foodcanfixit 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
  • 9. 9 Summary Report Dairy foods Plant sourced protein Animal sourced protein Unsaturatedplantoils Addedsugars W holegrains Starchy vegetables Beef, lamb and pork Poultry Eggs Fish Legumes Nuts Target 1 Healthy Diets Figure 3 A planetary health plate should consist by volume of approximately half a plate of vegetables and fruits; the other half, displayed by contribution to calories, should consist of primarily whole grains, plant protein sources, unsaturated plant oils, and (optionally) modest amounts of animal sources of protein. For further details, please refer to section 1 of the Commission. A healthy diet should optimize health, defined broad- ly as being a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of dis- ease. Scientific targets for healthy diets are based on the extensive literature on foods, dietary patterns and health outcomes (see Table 1).
  • 10. Healthy diets have an optimal caloric intake and con- sist largely of a diversity of plant-based foods, low amounts of animal source foods, contain unsaturated rather than saturated fats, and limited amounts of re- fined grains, highly processed foods and added sugars. 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies Macronutrient intake grams per day (possible range) Caloric intake kcal per day Whole grains Rice, wheat, corn and other 232 811 Tubers or starchy vegetables Potatoes and cassava 50 (0–100) 39 Vegetables All vegetables 300 (200–600) 78 Fruits All fruits 200 (100–300) 126 Dairy foods Whole milk or equivalents 250 (0–500) 153 Protein sources Beef, lamb and pork Chicken and other poultry Eggs Fish Legumes Nuts 14 (0–28) 29 (0–58) 13 (0–25) 28 (0–100) 75 (0–100) 50 (0–75) 30 62 19 40 284 291 Added fats Unsaturated oils Saturated oils 40 (20–80) 11.8 (0-11.8) 354 96 Added sugars All sugars 31 (0–31) 120 Table 1 Scientific targets for a planetary health diet, with possible ranges, for an intake of 2500 kcal/day. Target 1 Healthy Diets Although the planetary health diet, which is based on health considerations, is consistent with many traditional eating patterns, it does not imply that the global population should eat exactly the same food, nor does it prescribe an exact diet. Instead, the planetary health diet outlines empirical food groups and ranges of food intakes, which combined in a diet, would optimize human health. Local interpretation and adaptation of the universally-applicable planetary health diet is necessary and should reflect the culture, geography and demography of the population and individuals. 10
  • 11. Summary Report 11 The plates below are examples of a planetary health diet. This is a flexitarian diet, which is largely plant-based but can optionally include modest amounts of fish, meat and dairy foods. 10 10 2 15 17
  • 12. 12 Sub-Saharan Africa 293% 288% 153% Health boundary 100% 100% 729% GLOBAL Transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require substantial dietary shifts. This includes a more than doubling in the con- sumption of healthy foods such as fruits, veg- etables, legumes and nuts, and a greater than 50% reduction in global consumption of less healthy foods such as added sugars and red meat (i.e. primarily by reducing excessive consumption in wealthier countries). However, some populations worldwide depend on agropastoral livelihoods and animal protein from livestock. In addition, many populations continue to face significant burdens of undernutrition and obtaining adequate quantities of micronutrients from plant source foods alone can be difficult. Given these considerations, the role of ani- mal source foods in people’s diets must be carefully considered in each context and within local and re- gional realities. 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
  • 13. 13 Summary Report North America South Asia 100% 638% 268% 234% 171% 145% 100% 125% Figure 4 The “diet gap” between current dietary patterns and intakes of food in the planetary health diet. Limited intake Red meat Fish Vegetables Fruit Legumes Whole grains Nuts Eggs Poultry Dairy foods Starchy vegetables Optional foods Emphasized foods
  • 14. 14 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies Table 2 Estimated deaths prevented among adults by a global adoption of the planetary health diet. Dietary changes from current diets toward healthy diets are likely to result in significant health benefits. The Commission analyzed the potential impacts of dietary change on diet-related disease mortali- ty using three approaches (see Table 2). All three approaches concluded that dietary changes from current diets toward healthy diets are likely to result in major health benefits. This includes pre- venting approximately 11 million deaths per year, which represent between 19% to 24% of total deaths among adults. Approach 1 Comparative Risk 19% or 11.1 million adult deaths per year Approach 2 Global Burden of Disease 22.4% or 10.8 million adult deaths per year Approach 3 Empirical Disease Risk 23.6% or 11.6 million adult deaths per year
  • 15. 15 Summary Report Table 3 Scientific targets for six key Earth system processes and the control variables used to quantify the boundaries. Target 2 Sustainable Food Production Interacting biogeophysical systems and processes in the Earth system, in particular between the climate system and the biosphere, regulate the state of the planet. The Commission focuses on six of these (Table 3),which are the main systems and processes affected by food production and for which scientific evidence allows the provision of quantifiable targets. These systems and processes are being increasingly rec- ognized as necessary parameters for a system-wide definition of sustainable food production. For each of these, the Commission proposes boundaries that global food production should stay within to de- crease the risk of irreversible and potentially catastrophic shifts in the Earth system. These planetary boundaries for food production conceptu- ally define the upper limit of environmental effects for food production at the global scale. For the climate change boundary for food produc- tion, the underlying assumption that has been ap- plied is that the world will follow the Paris Agree- ment (keeping global warming to well below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C) and decarbonize the global energy system by 2050. It has also been assumed that world agriculture will transition toward sustainable food production, leading to a shift from land use being a net source of carbon to becoming a net sink of car- bon. The boundary estimate is thereby an assess- ment of the maximum amount of non-CO2 gases (i.e. methane and nitrous oxide) that have been assessed as both necessary and hard to further reduce – at least before 2050 – in order to achieve both healthy diets for everyone on the planet and the targets of the Paris Agreement. Earth system process Control variable Boundary (Uncertainty range) Climate change GHG emissions 5 Gt CO2 -eq yr−1 (4.7 – 5.4 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 ) Land-system change Cropland use 13 M km2 (11–15 M km²) Freshwater use Water use 2,500 km3 yr−1 (1000–4000 km³ yr−1 ) Nitrogen cycling N application 90 Tg N yr−1 (65–90 Tg N yr−1 ) * (90–130 Tg N yr−1 )** Phosphorus cycling P application 8 Tg P yr−1 (6–12 Tg P yr−1 ) * (8–16 Tg P yr−1 )** Biodiversity loss Extinction rate 10 E/MSY (1–80 E/MSY) *Lower boundary range if improved production practices and redistribution are not adopted. **Upper boundary range if improved production practices and redistribution are adopted and 50% of applied phosphorus is recycled. N P
  • 16. 16 Achieving a sustainable food system that can deliv- er healthy diets for a growing population presents formidable challenges. Finding solutions to these challenges requires an understanding of the envi- ronmental impacts of various actions. The readily implementable actions investigated by the Commis- sion were: 1) A global shift toward healthy diets; 2) improved food production practices; and 3) reduced food loss and waste (see Table 4). The Commission’s aim was to identify a set of actions that meet the scientific targets for healthy diets and sustaina- ble food production, which will allow for a tran- sition of the global food system to within the safe operating space. 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies Achieving planetary health diets. Applying this framework to future projections of world development indicates that food systems can provide healthy diets (defined here as a reference diet) for an estimated population of about 10 billion people by 2050 and remain within a safe operating space. However, even small increases in the con- sumption of red meat or dairy foods would make this goal difficult or impossible to achieve. The analysis shows that staying within the safe operating space for food systems requires a combination of substan- tial shifts toward mostly plant-based dietary patterns, dramatic reductions in food losses and waste, and major improvements in food produc- tion practices. While some individual actions are enough to stay within specific boundaries, no single intervention is enough to stay below all boundaries simultaneously. Table 4 Actions considered for reducing environmental impacts from food production. Actions Description Dietary shift Planetary health diet Planetary health diet – as outlined in Table 1. Halve waste Reduced food loss and waste Food losses and waste reduced by half, in line with SDG target 12.3. PROD Improved production practices Standard level of ambition Closing of yield gaps to about 75%; rebalancing nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer application between over and under-applying regions; improving water management; and implementation of agricultural mitigation options that are economic at the projected social cost of carbon in 2050. For biodiversity, it was assumed that land is expanded first into secondary habitat or other managed ecosystems and then to intact forests. PROD+ Improved production practices High level of ambition High level of ambition practices on top of PROD scenario, including closing yield gaps to 90%; a 30% increase in nitrogen use efficiency, and 50% recycling rates of phosphorus; phase-out of first-generation biofuels, and implementation of all available bottom-up options for mitigating food-related GHG emissions. For biodiversity, it was assumed that land use is optimized across regions such that it minimizes impacts on biodiversity.
  • 17. 17 Summary Report Table 5 Various scenarios demonstrating the environmental impacts of implementing the action outlined in Table 4. The colors illustrate whether environmental impacts transgress food production boundaries: green - below lower range value; light green - below or equal to boundary but above lower range value; yellow - above boundary but below upper range value; red - above upper range value. BAU indicates business as usual scenario. GHG emissions Cropland use Water use Nitrogen application Phosphorus application Biodiversity loss Food production boundary 5.0 (4.7–5.4) 13 (11.0–15.0) 2.5 (1.0–4.0) 90 (65.0–140.0) 8 (6.0–16.0) 10 (1–80) Baseline in 2010 5.2 12.6 1.8 131.8 17.9 100–1000 Production (2050) Waste (2050) Diet (2050) BAU Full waste BAU 9.8 21.1 3.0 199.5 27.5 1,043 BAU Full waste Dietary shift 5.0 21.1 3.0 191.4 25.5 1,270 BAU Halve waste BAU 9.2 18.2 2.6 171.0 23.2 684 BAU Halve waste Dietary shift 4.5 18.1 2.6 162.6 21.2 885 PROD Full waste BAU 8.9 14.8 2.2 187.3 25.5 206 PROD Full waste Dietary shift 4.5 14.8 2.2 179.5 24.1 351 PROD Halve waste BAU 8.3 12.7 1.9 160.1 21.5 50 PROD Halve waste Dietary shift 4.1 12.7 1.9 151.7 20.0 102 PROD+ Full waste BAU 8.7 13.1 2.2 147.6 16.5 37 PROD+ Full waste Dietary shift 4.4 12.8 2.1 140.8 15.4 34 PROD+ Halve waste BAU 8.1 11.3 1.9 128.2 14.2 21 PROD+ Halve waste Dietary shift 4.0 11.0 1.9 121.3 13.1 19 N P
  • 18. 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies Baseline projections of environmental pressures in 2050 Dietary Shift Planetary Health Diet Halve waste Reduced food loss and waste PROD Improved production practices Standard level of ambition PROD+ Improved production practices High level of ambition COMB+ Combination of actions High level of ambition Planetary boundary Uncertainty range COMB Combination of actions Standard level of ambition Planetary boundary Uncertainty range Standard level of ambition PROD+ Improved production practices High level of ambition Standard level of ambition COMB+ Combination of actions High level of ambition Biodiversityloss GHG emissions Croplanduse W ateruse N application Papplication 100% 10,000% N P Impacts of a global shift toward planetary health diets, improved food production practices and reductions in food loss and waste from base- line projections of environmental pressures in 2050. The readily imple- mentable actions and their combination are depicted as reductions from the 2050 baseline projections for each boundary. The aim is to find an action or set of actions that reduces the impact to within the uncertainty range (grey shading) or boundary (100% dashed line). For example, the dietary shift wedge that ends at 100% the GHG emissions boundary indicates that a dietary shift can reduce the projected increase of GHG emissions from 196% of present impacts to the boundary of 5 Gt CO2 - eq yr-1, which represents a reduction of 49% or 96 percentage points. Improved production practices (PROD) and reduced food loss and waste (halve waste) only reduce impacts by 18 percentage points and 12 per- centage points respectively, both of which remain well above both the GHG emissions boundary and the uncertainty range. A combination of actions with a standard level of ambition (COMB) reduces the impact by 114 percentage points, which is well below the boundary. For biodiversity loss, only the impact of the most ambitious combination of actions is shown (COMB+), as only this level of action reduces the impact to within the uncertainty range (grey shading) for the biodiversity loss boundary. Figure 5
  • 19. 19 Summary Report Prof. Johan Rockström PhD Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Stockholm Resilience Centre Global food production threatens climate stability and ecosystem resilience. It constitutes the single largest driver of environmental degradation and transgression of planetary boundaries. Taken together the outcome is dire. A radical transformation of the global food system is urgently needed. Without action, the world risks failing to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement.
  • 20. 20 Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems Humanity has never before set out to radically change the food system at the scale or speed envis- aged by the Commission. There are no “silver bullet” solutions to the problems. Hard work, political will and sufficient resources are required. Opponents will warn of unintended consequences or argue that the case for action is premature or should be left to existing dynamics. This Commission disagrees. 1 Goal — 2 Targets — 5 Strategies The data are both sufficient and strong enough to warrant immediate action. Delaying action will only increase the likelihood of serious, even disastrous, consequences. #foodcanfixit Five Strategies for a Great Food Transformation The data are both sufficient and strong enough to warrant immediate action. Delaying action will only increase the likelihood of serious, even disastrous, consequences. It is clear too that a Great Food Transformation will not occur without widespread multi-sector, multi-level action, which must be guided by scientific targets.
  • 21. 21 Summary Report 1 Strategy 1 Seek international and national commitment to shift toward healthy diets Table 6 Predicted change in food production from 2010 to 2050 (percent from 2010 scenario) for the business as usual (BAU) with full waste, the planetary health diet with full waste, and the planetary health diet with halve waste scenarios. The scientific targets set out by this Commission provide guidance for the necessary shift, recommending increased consumption of plant-based foods – including fruits, vegeta- bles, nuts, seeds and whole grains – while in many settings substantially limiting ani- mal source foods. This concerted commitment can be achieved by making healthy foods more available, accessible and affordable in place of unhealthier alternatives, improving information and food marketing, investing in public health information and sustainability education, imple- menting food-based dietary guidelines, and using health care services to deliver dietary advice and interventions. 0% –50% Whole grains Starchy vegetables Vegetables Fruits Dairy Dry beans Lentils Peas Soy NutsRed meat Protein sources Poultry Eggs Fish –100% 150% 200% 250% 100% 50% 2050 BAU + full waste 2050 planetary health diet + full waste 2050 planetary health diet + halve waste
  • 22. 22 2 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies Strategy 2 Reorient agricultural priorities from producing high quantities of food to producing healthy food Agriculture and fisheries must not only produce enough calories to feed a growing global population but must also produce a diversity of foods that nurture human health and support environmental sustainability. Alongside dietary shifts, agricultural and marine pol- icies must be reoriented toward a variety of nutritious foods that enhance biodiversity rather than aiming for increased volume of a few crops, much of which is now used for animal feed. Livestock production needs to be considered in specific contexts.
  • 23. 23 Summary Report 3 Strategy 3 Sustainably intensify food production to increase high-quality output The current global food system requires a new agricultural revolution that is based on sus- tainable intensification and driven by sustainability and system innovation. This would entail at least a 75% reduction of yield gaps on current cropland, radical improvements in ferti- lizer and water use efficiency, recycling of phosphorus, redistribution of global use of nitrogen and phosphorus, implementing climate mitigation options including changes in crop and feed management, and enhancing biodiversity within agricultural systems. In addition, to achieve negative emissions globally as per the Paris Agreement, the global food system must become a net carbon sink from 2040 and onward.
  • 24. 24 4This implies feeding humanity on existing agricultural land i.e. by implementing a zero-ex- pansion policy of new agricultural land into natural ecosystems and species-rich forests, aiming management policies at restoring and reforesting degraded land, establishing international land use governance mechanisms, and adopting a Half Earth strategy for biodiversity conser- vation (i.e. conserve at least 80% of preindustrial species richness by protecting the remaining 50% of Earth as intact ecosystems). Moreover, there is a need to improve the management of the world’s oceans to ensure that fisheries do not negatively impact ecosystems, fish stocks are utilized responsibly, and global aquaculture production is expanded sustainably. Strategy 4 Strong and coordinated governance of land and oceans 1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
  • 25. 25 Summary Report 5 Strategy 5 At least halve food losses and waste, in line with UN Sustainable Development Goals Substantially reducing food losses at the production side and food waste at the consum- ption side is essential for the global food system to stay within a safe operating space. Both technological solutions applied along the food supply chain and implementation of public poli- cies are required in order to achieve an overall 50% reduction in global food loss and waste as per the targets of the SDGs. Actions include improving post-harvest infrastructure, food transport, processing and packing, increasing collaboration along the supply chain, training and equipping producers, and educating consumers.
  • 26. 26 Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems calls for widespread multi-sector, multi-level action including: a substantial global shift toward healthy dietary patterns; large reductions in food loss and waste; and major improvements in food production practices. The data are both sufficient and strong enough to warrant immediate action. Food will be a defining issue of the 21st century. Un- locking its potential will catalyse the achievement of both the SDGs and Paris Agreement. An unprec- edented opportunity exists to develop food systems as a common thread between many international, national, and business policy frameworks aiming for improved human health and environmental sustain- ability. Establishing clear, scientific targets to guide food system transformation is an important step in realizing this opportunity. Conclusion How food is produced, what is consumed, and how much is lost or wasted all heavily shape the health of both people and planet. The EAT-Lancet Commission presents an integrated global framework and for the first time, provides quantitative scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production. The Commission shows that feeding 10 billion people a healthy diet within safe planetary boundaries for food production by 2050 is both possible and necessary. It also demonstrates that the universal adoption of a planetary health diet would help avoid severe en- vironmental degradation and prevent approximate- ly 11 million human deaths annually. However, to safeguard the natural systems and processes that humanity depends on and that ultimately determine the stability of the Earth system will require no less than a Great Food Transformation. The Commission The global adoption of healthy diets from sustainable food systems would safeguard our planet and improve the health of billions. The data are both sufficient and strong enough to warrant immediate action. Food will be a defining issue of the 21st century. Unlocking its potential will catalyse the achievement of both the SDGs and Paris Agreement.
  • 27. 27 Summary Report Anthropocene A proposed new geological epoch that is characterized by humanity being the dominating force of change on the planet. ? Great Food Transformation The unprecedented range of actions taken by all food system sectors across alllevelsthataimtonormalisehealthydietsfromsustainablefoodsystems.? Safe operating space for food systems A space that is defined by scientific targets for human health and environmentally sustainable food production set by this Commission. Operating within this space allows humanity to feed healthy diets to about 10 billion people within the biophysical limits of the Earth system. ? Food loss and food waste The terms “food loss” and “food waste” have distinct meanings as they occur at different stages of the food value chain. “Food loss” occurs before the food reaches the consumer as an unintended result of agricultural processes or technical limitations in the production, storage, processing and distribution phases. On the other hand, “food waste” refers to good quality food fit for consumption that is consciously discarded at the retail and consumption stages. ? Boundaries Thresholds set at the low end of the scientific uncertainty range that serve as guides for decisionmakers on acceptable levels of risk. Boundaries are baselines, unchanging and not time-bound. ? Food system All elements and activities that relate to production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food. This Commission focuses on two end-points of the global food system; final consumption (healthy diets) and production (sustainable food production). ? Biosphere All parts of the Earth where life exists including the lithosphere (solid surface layer), hydrosphere (water) and atmosphere (air). The biosphere plays an important part in regulating the Earth system by driving energy and nutrient flow between components. ? Planetary boundaries Nine boundaries, each representing a system or process that is important for regulating and maintaining stability of the planet. They define global biophysical limits that humanity should operate within to ensure a stable and resilient Earth system—i.e. conditions that are necessary to foster prosperity for future generations. ? Earth system Earth’s interacting physical, chemical and biological processes consisting of land, oceans, atmosphere and poles, and include Earth’s natural cycles— i.e. carbon, water, nitrogen, phosphorus and other cycles. Life, including human society, is an integral part of the Earth system and affects these natural cycles. ? Glossary
  • 28. 28 Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems The EAT-Lancet Commission Co-chaired by Prof. Walter Willett and Prof. Johan Rockström, the EAT-Lancet Commission brought together 19 Commissioners and 18 co-authors from 16 countries in various fields including human health, agriculture, political science and environmental sustainability. Prof. Walter Willett MD Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Medical School Channing Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital The Stockholm Resilience Centre hosted the EAT-Lancet Commission secretariat and co-led the Commission’s research activities with EAT. All Commissioners and co-authors contributed to the manuscript ideas, structure, and reviewing and have seen and approved the final version of the manuscript. Prof. Johan Rockström PhD Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Stockholm Resilience Centre
  • 29. Commissioners Prof. Tim Lang PhD Centre for Food Policy, City, University of London Dr. Sonja Vermeulen PhD World Wide Fund for Nature International Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy, Chatham House Dr. Tara Garnett PhD Food Climate Research Network, Environmental Change Institute and Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Dr. David Tilman PhD Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Dr. Jessica Fanzo PhD Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Berman Institute of Bioethics and Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Prof. Corinna Hawkes PhD Centre for Food Policy, City, University of London Dr. Rami Zurayk PhD Department of Landscape Design and Ecosystem Management, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, American University of Beirut Dr. Juan A. Rivera PhD National Institute of Public Health of Mexico Dr. Lindiwe Majele Siban- da PhD Global Alliance for Climate-Smart Agriculture Dr. Rina Agustina MD Department of Nutrition, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital Human Nutrition Research Center, Indonesian Medical Education and Research Institute, Faculty of Med- icine, Universitas Indo- nesia Dr. Francesco Branca MD Department of Nutrition for Health and Devel- opment, World Health Organization Dr. Anna Lartey PhD Nutrition and Food Sys- tems Division, Economic and Social Development Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Dr. Shenggen Fan PhD International Food Policy Research Institute, University of Washington Prof. K. Srinath Reddy DM Public Health Foundation of India Dr. Sunita Narain PhD Centre for Science and Environment Dr. Sania Nishtar MD Heartfile WHO Independent High-Level Commission on Non- communicable Diseases Benazir Income Support Programme Prof. Christopher J.L. Murray MD Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington Co-authors Dr. Brent Loken PhD EAT Stockholm Resilience Centre Dr. Marco Springmann PhD Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food and Centre on Population Approaches for Non- Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuff- ield Department of Popu- lation Health, University of Oxford Dr. Fabrice DeClerck PhD EAT Stockholm Resil- ience Centre Bioversity International, CGIAR Dr. Amanda Wood PhD EAT Stockholm Resilience Centre Dr. Malin Jonell PhD Stockholm Resilience Centre Dr. Michael Clark PhD Natural Resources Sci- ence and Management, University of Minnesota Dr. Line J. Gordon PhD Stockholm Resilience Centre Prof. Wim De Vries PhD Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wage- ningen University and Research Dr. Ashkan Afshin MD Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington Dr. Abhishek Chaudhary PhD Institute of Food, Nutrition and Health, ETH Zurich Department of Civil Engi- neering, Indian Institute of Technology Dr. Mario Herrero PhD Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Dr. Beatrice Crona PhD Stockholm Resilience Centre Dr. Elizabeth Fox PhD Berman Institute of Bioethics, Johns Hopkins University Ms. Victoria Bignet MSc Stockholm Resilience Centre Dr. Max Troell PhD Stockholm Resilience Centre The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Dr. Therese Lindahl PhD Stockholm Resilience Centre The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Dr. Sudhvir Singh MBChB EAT University of Auckland Dr. Sarah E. Cornell PhD Stockholm Resilience Centre
  • 30. 30 Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems EAT is a global, non-profit foundation established by the Stordalen Foundation, Stockholm Resilience Centre and Wellcome Trust to catalyze a food system transformation. About EAT Our values: · Scale bold systems change based on solid science · Accelerate impact through collaboration · Deliver disruptive solutions, where others can’t · Embody diversity, honesty and integrity · Champion fairness and equity, leaving no one behind ACTIO N KNOWLED G E EN G AGEMENT TRANSFORMING THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM KNOWLEDGE Identifying ques Generating kno ENGAGEMENT Amplifying the Engaging stakeh ACTION Translating kno Scaling up actio impact at scale BUSINESS SCIENCE POLICY ACTIO N KNOWLED G E EN G AGEMENT TRANSFORMING THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM KNOWLEDGE Identifying q Generating k ENGAGEMEN Amplifying t Engaging sta ACTION Translating k Scaling up a impact at sc BUSINESS SCIENCE POLICY To address these challenges, we use a framework for change that sets up a dynamic three-way interaction across knowledge, engagement and action. The gen- eration of new knowledge provides direction and an evidence base for change. Creative engagement with partners across business, policy and science amplifies messages and spurs action for change. Partnerships inspired through engagement and informed by knowl- edge enable actions leading to change and impact at scale. Our approach to food system transformation coupled with our framework for change constitute our DNA. Our vision: A fair and sustainable global food system for healthy people and planet – leaving no one behind. Our mission: Transform our global food system through sound science, impatient disruption and novel partnerships. To ensure success, we connect and partner across science, policy, business and civil society to achieve five urgent and radical transformations by 2050: • Shift the world to healthy, tasty and sustainable diets • Realign food system priorities for people and planet • Produce more of the right food, from less • Safeguard our land and oceans • Radically reduce food losses and waste
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  • 32. EAT is the science-based global platform for food system transformation #foodcanfixit