1. A new profession is emerging:
Decision Coach
INFORMS Analytics Conference
April 15 -17, 2012
Huntington Beach, California
Stephen Barrager, Ph.D.
Baker Street Publishing, LLC
steve@bakerstreetpublishing.com

2. I started my career in aerospace and computers.
Second job - IBM360
First job - Apollo.
That’s me --
to the right of
the analog
computers.
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

3. Third job - Lead Teaching Assistant for
Professor Howard’s probability and
decision analysis courses at Stanford.
Professor Howard
Graduate Student
Barrager
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

4. I hope you learn the following things
today:
• A new profession is emerging: decision coaching
• There is a core knowledge set required for strategic
decision making: process, systems analysis, and
applied probability.
• In addition, decision coaches must master facilitation
skills, project management, and organizational
learning.
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

5. Success in any enterprise consists of
doing three basic things well.
Strategic
Decision making is only one of the
Leadership Decision tasks of an executive. It usually
takes but a small fraction of his
Making time. But to make decisions is the
specific executive task.
Pe t e r D r u c ke r, T h e E f f e c t i ve
Manager 1966
Operational
Management There is a lot to be gained if we
can improve strategic decision
(execution) making.
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

6. A McKinsey survey of 2,327 executives from the full range of
industries, regions and functions revealed the following
goals of strategic decision making. (In percentage of total
decisions.)
Expansion into new products, services or geographies 34
Investment in existing products, services or geographies 15
Building new infrastructure 12
Mergers and acquisitions 11
Maintenance of existing infrastructure 5
Organizational change for other reasons 21
From “How companies make good decisions,”
The McKinsey Quarterly, December 2008
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

7. Generally there are 3 groups involved in important
strategic decisions: decision makers, stakeholders, and
experts.
Decision Makers
Act
Stakeholders Experts
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8. Scene from Moneyball, Columbia Pictures
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9. What is missing?
Facilitation?
Process?
Tools? Decision Makers
Stakeholders Act
Project
Management?
Experts
Knowledge Management and training?
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

10. Who is missing?
Decision Makers
Stakeholders Act
Experts
?
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

11. A decision coach brings
several things to the table.
Project
Process Tools Facilitation Management
Knowledge Management and Training
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

12. “If you can’t describe what you are doing as
a process, you don’t know what you are
doing.”
W. Edwards Deming
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13. Two processes are fundamental. The Decision Analysis
Process and the Collaborative Design Process.
Decision Deterministic Appraisal
Modeling and
Probability
framing and and value of
sensitivity assessment
basis Information
development analysis and
calculations
Situation calculation
1
2
A B C
Act
3
4
5
Decision Systems Probability Value of
Theory Analysis Theory information
Decision Makers
Stakeholders and Experts
Framing
Alternative
Generation Analysis Synthesis Act
Stakeholders and experts
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

14. The Decision Analysis Process combines the
power of:
Systems Probability
Analysis Theory
Decision
Theory
in a normative way.
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

15. The Collaborative Design Process brings in the
people.
Decision Makers
Alternative Act
Framing Analysis
Stakeholders and Experts
Generation Synthesis
Stakeholders
Coach Experts
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

16. The Collaborative Design Process emphasizes
framing and design.
Systems Probability
Analysis Theory
Decision
Framing Theory Design
Decision Analysis is the analytical backbone of the Collaborative Design Process.
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

17. Inappropriate framing is the root cause of most bad
decisions.
Here

18. it

19. is!
Find x.
x
3 cm
4 cm
Too often we get the right answer to the wrong question.
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

20. Design is the intersection of analysis and
synthesis. We want this intersection to be
big.
Design
Alternative
Analysis
FramingStakeholders and Experts
Generation
Synthesis
Steve Jobs called
synthesis, “Connecting
the dots.”
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

21. Project
Process Tools Facilitation Management
Knowledge Management and Training
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

22. A decision coach brings a bag full of tools.
Policy
Decision and Framing hierarchies --- Which decisions
are we working on? How do they fit with other decisions? What
Strategy are the givens.
Tactics
Strategy tables --- How do alternative strategies differ?
Do they cover the range of possibilities?
Competition
High Sport
Market Size
Pricing
Strategy
Decision Diagrams --- What issues are relevant to the strategy?
Performance
Styling
How do issues influence each other?
Net Present
Market Share
Comfort and
Convenience
Strategy
Value
Quality
Warranty Costs
Investment
Unit Costs
A B C
1
2
Dynamic System Simulation and Optimization Models ---
3
Have we captured the complexities and dynamics logically?
4
5
Sensitivity Analysis --- What are the important uncertainties?
Where should we focus our attention?
Probability assessment techniques --- How do we express
what we don’t know? How do we deal with cognitive biases?
Bayesian updating of information --- How do probabilities
change as we learn more? What is the value of better
information?
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

23. A business enterprise is a complex system. Systems
modeling is the best tool we have for understanding it.
Customer Relationships
Key Activities Cus
tom
Key er S
Resources egm
ents
Key nels
ns
n
Cha
os e
itio
op lu
Partners
Pr Va
Cost Revenue
Structure Streams
Diagram adapted from:
“Business Model Generation,” by Alexander
Osterwalder and Yves Pigeur, Wiley 2010
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

24. Computer-based, mathematical models are the key to
cutting through complexity and dynamics.
In the mid-1980’s Herb Simon* gave a lecture at Stanford University. He discussed the
slow, but unrelenting march of critical thinking about complex social problems.
Toward the end of his talk he stated that he thought the computer-based, mathematical
model was perhaps the greatest invention of all time. I was a bit taken back. I was
expecting him to suggest something like the microprocessor, not esoteric computer
models like those I was building.
He went on to explain that these models were so important because they offered the first
opportunity for groups of people to think collectively about very complicated problems.
Individuals can model parts of the problem and then combine their knowledge with that of
other people in a logically consistent way. Mankind has never had this capability.
When used properly, these models are like meta neural networks. They combine the
thinking of many brains. They capture the thinking in a way that can be shared and refined
by many people spread out over the globe.
*Herb Simon was the first winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics.
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

25. Project
Process Tools Facilitation Management
Knowledge Management and Training
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

26. There are 3 well known barriers to good
decision making:
• Cognitive biases, e.g., anchoring and availability
• The confirmation bias
• Organizational defenses
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

27. Overcoming the confirmation bias is a big challenge in
group decision making.
We tend to hear
only those things
that are consistent
with our prior
experience and
beliefs.
From: The Complete Far Side, Gary Larson
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

28. Organizational defenses are pervasive.
What do we do if there
is a warthog in the room
and no-one wants to
talk about it?
What if the warthog is
the boss?
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

29. The Mutual Learning Model is normative. We say this is
how we should think and behave.
Results
•Increased understanding
•More informed decisions
•High commitment to action
Your Purpose •Mutual learning
•Better working relationships
•Valid information
•Informed choice
•Internal commitment
Acting
Framing •State thinking behind own view
•How you see yourself •Inquire into other’s views
-What I see is one perspective •Make dilemmas discussible
-I may be missing something •Express and reflect on emotion
•How you see others •Design ways to test merits of
-Acting sensibly in own mind differing views
-Caught in a dilemma
Source: Action Design. Adapted from Chris
Argyris Donald Schön
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

30. Facilitation Project
Process Tools Skills Management
Knowledge Management and Training
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

31. Coaches can fill the project management role.
People and
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
Phas
e
Organization
Alternative Generation
Analysi
s ynthes
S
is
Implemen
Money
tation
Schedule Project
Management
Plan
Decision Makers
Alternative
Analysis
A
Framing Synthesis
A B C Generation
1
2 Stakeholders and experts
3
4
5
Tools Process
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

32. Facilitation Project
Process Tools Skills Management
Knowledge Management and Training
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

33. Organizations need a memory.
“When important decisions are not documented, one
becomes dependent on individual memory, which is quickly
lost as people leave or move to other jobs. In my work, it is
important to be able to go back a number of years to
determine the facts that were considered in arriving at a
decision. This makes it easier to resolve new problems by
putting them into proper perspective. It also minimizes the
risk of repeating past mistakes. Moreover, if important
communications and actions are not documented clearly, one
can never be sure they were understood or even executed.”
From Doing a Job, by Admiral Hyman G. Rickover
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

34. Someone needs to be responsible for knowledge
management and organizational learning. This is a
natural role for the decision coach.
Act
Roster
Best Practices
d
Learne
Lessons
s
l failure
Successfu
Act Act
Act
Act
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

35. A decision coach brings
several things to the table.
Facilitation Project
Process Tools Skills Management
Knowledge Management and Training
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

36. We need more qualified coaches. Where are they going
to come from?
Management
Skill MBA OR Science and
Engineering
Process
Decision Analysis ☀ ☀ ☀
Collaborative Design ? ? ?
Tools
Core Skills
Framing ☀
Systems Analysis ☀ ☀
Applied probability ☀ ☀
Facilitation ☀
Project Management ☀ ☀
Organizational
Learning ☀
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

37. In summary,
• A new profession is emerging: decision coaching
• There is a core knowledge set required for strategic
decision making: process, systems analysis, and
applied probability.
• In addition, decision coaches must master facilitation
skills, project management, and organizational
learning.
Odds are good that more engineers will become decision
coaches and ultimately move into executive positions. This
will lead to major, sustained improvements in public and
private decision making.
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

38. The Baker Street mission is to supply decision coaches with
the things that they need to be successful. For more
information see the following:
• Coach’s Guide to Framing, slide deck, PDF
http://bakerstreetpublishing.com/publications/framing-strategic-decisions-an-overview/
• Coach’s Guide to the Decision Analysis Process, slide deck, PDF
http://bakerstreetpublishing.com/publications/coachs-guide-to-the-decision-analysis-process/
• Coach’s Guide to the Collaborative Design Process, slide deck, PDF
http://bakerstreetpublishing.com/publications/coachs-guide-to-the-collaborative-design-process/
• Coach’s Guide to Mutual Learning, forthcoming, enhanced e-book
for the iPad.
• Baker Street Publishing Blog http://bakerstreetpublishing.com/blog/
• Speaking of Decisions: Precise Decision Language, Ron Howard,
INFORMS, Onlinehttp://da.journal.informs.org/content/1/2/71.abstract
© 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.