2. What is TRANZFOR
Joint funded:IRSES Madam Curie Action Framework 7; MoRST, DIISR, AAS
Supported by INRA, Scion, ISA, CSIRO, UKFR

3. Forests and climate change
• WP 1 - Genomics and tree breeding strategies
• WP 2 - Forest Models
• WP 3 - Environmental services
• WP 4 - Risk assessment
• WP 5 - Bioenergy

4. Australian climate change adaptation for forestry: current
activities and future needs
Michael Battaglia

5. Australia is dry and getting drier
…with consequences for our forests
1950 - 2008 1970 - 2008

6. With drying comes fire risk
By 2050, the percent change in the number of days with Very
High or Extreme fire weather are:
• Number of ‘Very High’ fire danger days: +20-100%
• Number of ‘Extreme’ fire danger days: +100-300%
Lucas et al., 2007

7. Regional forest carbon stocks and fire
impacts: a shift?
Long-term decrease in carbon stock
(net emission of CO2)
Carbon
Stock
(Mt)
‘mature’ fire regrowth
forest
Time (years)
After Polglase pers. comm

8. Forest fires and water supply
Wildfires in 1939 have decreased stream flows to Melbourne by about 300
GL per year (40%) due to increased forest water use in just 65,000 ha of
regenerating forest.
1400
1200
1000 500 mm x 65,000 ha
Annual catchment
= 325 GL
runoff (mm)
800
600
400
95% confidence
limits
200 2009
0
0 50 100 150 200 Kuczera, 1987
Forest age (yrs)
After Polglase pers. comm

9. NOW
Pinkard and Kriticos pers. comm
2070

10. Climate-driven tree mortality in Australian plantations
On the increase – in Australia and elsewhere
See Allen et al (2010) For Ecol Manage 259: 660–684 for global review
Australian plantations ‘ moderately vulnerable’ – IPCC
Late summer E. globulus plantations in WA
From McDowell et al.(2008)
New Phytologist 178: 719–739
After White pers. comm

11. No mortality
Assuming mortality
Relative to 1980 growth Relative to 1980 growth
% change % change
< -10 < -10
-9 - 0 -9 - 0
1 - 10 1 - 10
> 10 > 10
www.fwpa.com.au/Resources/RD/Reports

12. Biodiversity
Distribution of species with mean annual
Frequency distribution of temperature ranges < 1°C
mean annual T range for (Hughes et al. 1996)
eucalypt species

13. Australian biome distribution at Last Glacial Maximum, present, and 2100
(600ppm CO2 scenario) using BIOME 4.0.
(Steffen et al. 2009 Australia’s biodiversity and climate change. Summary for policy makers 2009)

14. a) b)
c) d)
Carbon markets and land-use change
Profitability of reforestation of cleared landscapes for carbon sequestration, expressed as equalised annual equivalents (EAE), under a
carbon price of $20/t of CO2-e and the baseline commodity price scenario. Carbon plantings are economically viable when EAE > 0. The
tree systems modelled are: a) Eucalyptus globulus; b) Eucalyptus cladocalyx and Eucalyptus camaldulensis blend; c) Eucalyptus kochii,
and ; d) mixed environmental plantings. Crossman et al. 2010

15. National response .. some examples
• COAG National climate change action plan
• Climate change and forest action plan
• Support research to address major knowledge gaps (FFICCRF,
NCCARF)
• Other national response
• National Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010-20
• National water initiative and complementary state legislation
• Sustainable yields studies and MDBC irrigation changes
• Black Saturday Royal Commission Recommendations

16. Framework for what we do (in production
forestry research)
• Better, more useful vulnerability assessments
– not climate-centric but decision-centric
– but has to be based on understanding forest
functioning as well as human systems
• Identify and build adaptive capacity
• Explore adaptation options and their different
dimensions
• Social science to better understand adaptation
decisions (barriers, synergies)
• Work with industry and policy partners to develop
pathways to adoption
Modified from pers. Comm. Howden

17. Activities – again a sample (related to
production and carbon forestry)
Reviews:
•NNCARF forest vulnerability review
•NAFI Adaptation to climate change in Australia’s plantation industry
review
Vulnerability assessments:
•FWPA climate change and plantations impacts
%
-9
1- 0
> 1 10
0
Re
-
lati
ch ve
an to
< -1 ge
0
1 98
0g
ro
wth
•BRS climate change and plantations
•Water security, climate and land-use change– Lu Zhang &WfHC
Functioning and climate change:
•Hawkesbury + UWS Face: elevated CO2, temperature,
nutrients,water
•FFICCRF Forest mortality project
•Genetic flows in fragmented landscapes
•Wood properties
•OzFlux, Forest/biosphere-atmosphere interactions
Capacity building and carbon markets and biofuels:
•FFICCRF carbon markets project
•FASA sub-tropical and tropical germplasm / ALRTIG & ATSC
•Sustainable biofuels project / Gen2 sustainable oil mallees

18. Domain of government investment
Industry focus after NCCARF review Pinkard et al. 2010

19. TRANZFOR: where we have been
• WP 1 - Genomics and tree breeding strategies
S,I • Virtual gene project (Wu-Cullity)
C • Altitudinal variation in water use Nothofagus (Bresson)
• Genetic and environmental stability of the relationship between Water
E Use Efficiency (WUE) and discrimination against Carbon 13 (Δ13C)
(Douthe-Warren)
• WP 2 - Forest Models
C • Pinus pinaster (Fontes-Almeida)
C,I • Silvopastoral models (Battaglia-Palma)
C,I • Fast growing plantations and water (White-Cassella)
• WP 3 - Environmental services
• WP 4 - Risk assessment
S • Wind modelling (Gardiner-Finnigan)
C • Post fire recovery / Fire Paradox(Gomes-Moirea-Catry
• WP 5 - Bioenergy
C • Harmonising sustainability frameworks (O’Connell-Tubby)

20. TRANZFOR: future missions
• Forest Mortality
• Full carbon cycle /soils
• GxExM for carbon forestry
• Integrate approaches policy / adoption - lessons
• Native forest resilience
? • Detection and monitoring of change
? • Multi-criteria decision making/land use
? • Landscape connectivity – biodiversity and gene flows
• Biosecurity/Weeds
• Urban forestry / periurban forestry?
• Forest functioning and elevated CO2/ regulation of
photosynthesis/models of physiology