Outcomes of the study from the Hydrogen MOBILITÉ France.
73% of hydrogen used is to be generated by the cleanest possible method: electrolysis by 2030. Electrolysis uses only water and renewable power and the hydrogen can be generated where it is required, therefore eliminating fossil fuels 100% in its production and delivery.
http://www.afhypac.org/images/documents/h2_mobilit_france_fr_final.pdf
2. Source :
FRANCEDEFINEDITSHYDROGENMOBILITYIMPLEMENTATIONPLAN
•Part of the HydrogenInfrastructure for Transport (HIT) project
•European project financed by the EU (TEN-T program)
•4 Member States, 7 partners:
•Dutch ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Air Liquide, AFHYPAC, CopenhagenHydrogenNetwork, HyER, HydrogenLink Denmark, and HydrogenSweden
•Supported by the Ministry of Environment and Energy
•DGEC + ADEME
•Endorsed by the whole Government
•NFI plans «Energy Storage»
•Developed by the H2 Mobilité France Consortium
•A strong and wide coalition
•Analytical support provided by Element Energy
2
3. Source :
Government
Energy companies
Hydrogen and HRS Producers
Vehicle and Fuel Cells
Electrolyserproviders
Research organisations
Regions
EU and French Associations
H2 MOBILITÉFRANCECONSORTIUMSPANSFROMENERGYCOMPANIESTOENDCUSTOMERS
3
6. Source :
HYDROGENMOBILITYWILLHELPFRANCEMEETITSCO2TARGETSANDSUPPORTANENERGYTRANSITION
6
Quality of life
•Societal cost savings : 500million €2 over the 2015-2030 period
Societal cost of the CO2emissions, noise and pollutants of an ICE vehicle: 510 €per year, reduced to 160€for a FCEV1.
CO2emissions
•By 2030, the fleet of FCEVs will save 1.2Mt of CO2per year
Equivalent to 780,000 diesel vehicles
•Annual CO2savings from 1.2Mt p.a. in 2030 to 10.4Mt in 2050
Energy security and impact on economy
•FCEVs improve the energy independence factor of France
3TWheof electricity used by fuel cell vehicles by 2030
•Value creation of 700M€for H2 Sales in France
Energy transition
•H2production through water electrolysers offers the opportunity to integrate renewable generation as well as smooth the loading factor of nuclear plants
•H2can also be injected in the gasgridor combined with CO2to produce synthetic methane and thus decarbonise other sectors
1.As per approach use by CGDD in their 2011 report on vehicle total cost of ownership that accounts for social cost of vehicles;
2.Discounted at 4%; EUR 850million undiscounted
7. Source :
HYDROGENVEHICLESCANREDUCEEMISSIONSFROMTRANSPORTCOMPAREDTODIESELANDPHEVS
•Fuel Cell vehicles offer zero tailpipe emissions
•No particulates, no CO2, no NOx, no SOx, low noise
•H2RE-EV: 88% lower emissions compared to diesel in 2015
•FCEV: 77% lower emissions compared to diesel in 2030
7
ICE: diesel, BEV: BatteryElectric Vehicle, H2RE-EV: H2Range Extended EV, FCEV: Fuel CellElectric Vehicle, PHEV: Plug-In Electric Vehicle
H2working group analysis based on:
•EnerdataBalance scenario: CO2intensity of the electricity grid in 2030 –67g/kWh
•Diesel ICE efficiency based on consortium vehicle manufacturer data
WTW, g
CO2eq
/ km
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
PHEV
BEV
FCEV
H2 RE
-
EV
ICE diesel
99
37
23
9
2030 values
15
-
54%
-
88%
-77%
8. Source :
HYDROGEN ENABLES THE WIDESPREAD USE OF
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN TRANSPORT
8
Reference scenario – reference CO2 pathway
On-site WE SMR By-product
• Hydrogen Production will become
decarbonized progressively thanks to
electrolysis and biogas
• Introduction of low carbon production
processes can reduce the carbon footprint
by a factor of two by 2030.
• Existing French electricity grid highly
favourable for producing low CO2 hydrogen
• Biogas reforming could help decarbonizing
SMR footprint
• Large renewable deployments have been
announced for coastal regions
• Hydrogen production supports integration of
high proportions of renewable electricity into
the grid
Current 2017 2020 2025 2030
9. Source :
ON SITE H2 PRODUCTION BECOMES COMPETITIVE
DISTANCES GREATER THAN 150KM FROM INDUSTRIAL H2
PRODUCTION SITES
9
Assumptions:
• Excluding margin, compression and
distribution costs for onsite production
• 300 km round trip for delivered H2
• Hydrogen costs include revenues of
~1€/kg from balancing services
provided to the electricity grid
On-site water
electrolysis
Centralised water
electrolysis
6,4 6,1 5,7
7,8
7,3 7,2
EURO / kg for 80 kg/day hydrogen refuelling station
Large-scale (5-10t/day)
WE unlikely to be built in
this period
2015 2020 2025 2030
Electricity price assumption of 114 €/MWh for electrolysers in
2030, based on ‘Enerdata Balance’ scenario
12. Source :
A NATIONWIDEAPPROACHWASINVESTIGATEDATFIRST
•We followed the approach based on UK and Germany data and methodologies
•For a real passenger car market, a nation-wide infrastructure is needed from the very start
•This requires large investments and generates operating losses the early years
Global H2 infrastructure deployment
Nation-wide from scratch
600M€on 10 years of investment
12
13. Source :
ANALTERNATIVEAPPROACHWASTHENDEVELOPEDTHATMINIMIZESRISKSINTHEEARLYYEARS
•The infrastructure roll-out is focused on local fleets in the early years
•Vehicles and HRS are deployed once enough local clients are identified
•A good HRS load factor is achievable from the beginning
•Initial investment capacity and risk of under-utilisationare greatly reduced
•We identified suitable market segments(1):
Fleet cars
Delivery/utility
Urban duty logistics
Taxis
13
(1)Buses were not considered among the earliest market due to the current high cost premium and refuellingpatterns in private bus depots
14. Source :
FIRSTANALYSISOFMARKETSEGMENTSHIGHLIGHTEDTHEROLEOFCLUSTERSOFCAPTIVEFLEETS
•Captive Fleet definition
•Fleet vehicles with predictable driving and refuellingpatterns
•Vehicles making regular visits to or overnight parking at a depot
•Cluster definition
•Multiple fleets of customers within a defined area
•One or a few Hydrogen RefuellingStations (HRS) per cluster
14
15. Source :
Area where HRS provide coverage
Highway with HRS
HRS in place as of 2014
CAPTIVEFLEETAPPROACH: AWAYOFSTARTINGTHEMARKET, AHEADOFA3 PHASENATIONALROLLOUT
15
Clusters
2017
2020
2030
Clusters
•Affordable investments
•MaximisesHRS utilisationrate
National-scaledeployment
•Widespread network for passenger car drivers
•Sufficient vehicles to create viable business case for refuellingstations
Investment TRIGGERS
Supply of series FCEVs
•2ndgeneration FCEV drives cost decrease
•Policy support
•Evidence consumers will buy
•Regulation barriers addressed
Linkage of clusters
FCEV full scalecommercialisation
2025
PRECISE HRS LOCATIONS TO BE DEFINED IN NEXT PROJECT STEPS
16. Source :
STARTINGWITHRE-EVS: 65% LOWERVEHICLECOSTVS. FULLPOWERFCEVSATLOWVOLUMES
•Fuel Cell Range-extended Electric Vehicles offer a significantly lower cost route to market than full power FCEVs at low volume, due to smaller fuel cells and lower pressure hydrogen tanks
•At high volumes, purchase premiumrelative to EV falls to 3 000€for the RE-EV and 6 000€for the FCEV
ICE: diesel, BEV: BatteryElectric Vehicle, H2RE-EV: H2Range Extended EV, FCEV: Fuel CellElectric Vehicle
16
-65%
FCEV
H2RE-EV
BEV
ICE
FCEV
BEV
ICE
FCEV
BEV
ICE
Comparison of van purchase costs including existing bonus/malus*
100 to 500 units/year(2015-2020)
1000 to 5 000 units/year
(2020-2025)
10 000 and 50 000 units/year(2025-2030)
-48%
-6%
H2RE-EV
H2RE-EV
100%
Additional fuel cell powertrain costs
Battery cost premium(leasing or ownership model)
Vehicle glider cost (including bonus for electric powertrains between 2015-20)
* Current bonus of ~6 000€reduces cost premium of electric powertrains relative to a diesel van, although a cost premium due to the battery remains. By 2020, battery cost reductions are expected allow a competitive EV cost without the bonus, and the remaining battery cost will be offset by fuel cost savings during the life of the vehicle
17. Source :
ADAPTINGSTATIONSIZETOEXPECTEDFLEETDEMANDENABLESA32% REDUCTIONINHYDROGENCOSTVERSUSLARGERSTATIONSINTHEEARLYYEARS
17
•Starting with 350 bar refuellingenables lower HRS costs, but HRS remains compatible with 700 bar vehicles
•HRS for captive fleets are easier to size as a high utilization rate can be achieved from the beginning
Dispensed H2costs range for captive fleet HRS
Average dispensingcapacity (kg/day)
Target dispensing capacityfor captive fleets
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
210
350bar 35kg/day
350bar 80kg/day
350/700bar 80kg/day
350bar 212kg/day
350/700bar 212kg/day
-32%
€/H2kg
18. Source :
WITHH2RE-EVS, THETCO1GAPVS. DIESELCOULDBECLOSETO5K€FORCAPTIVEFLEETS
•Significant upside/externalities(2)
•Increased number of addressable duty cycles compared with battery electric vehicles
•Reduced accident rate for electric powertrains due to lower driver fatigue
•Increased vehicle availability due to rapid vehicle fuelling
•Restrictions in urban access with diesel vehicles anticipated
•Increasing needs for clean vehicles
•The current ‘Bonus-Malus’ vehicle incentive system helps to reduce the TCO gap in the early years
18
(1)TCO: Total Costof Ownership
(2)Workshop with 10 French fleet operators held in Feb 2014
TCO of diesel
Remain-ingTCO gap
Additional upside/ external- ities
TCO of H2RE-EV
Final gap: 5k€
Current bonus for zero emission vehicles
19. Source :
VALLEYOFDEATHMUSTBEOVERCOMETOREACHECONOMICVIABILITY
19
•Losses in the early years are reduced by 75% with the captive fleet approach
•HRS investments after 2020 expected to be NPV positive
•TCO premium is ~EUR 15,000 per vehicle before incentives in first 5 years
17 HRS CAPEX 11M€
338 HRSCAPEX 319M€
247 HRSCAPEX 247M€
Capex
Operating cashflow
Free cash flow of passenger car led HRS rollout
Million EUR
2016
2020
2026
20. Source :
H2 PRICESTRATEGYMAXIMIZESEARLYREVENUESANDACHIEVESDIESELPARITYAFTER2020
20
Revenues from H2sales, EUR/kg
Example of H2revenues at EUR 13/kg for first 5 years (captive fleets)
Strong growth in FCEV passenger cars beyond 2020
Continued fall in H2cost allows opportunity for fuel taxation while remaining competitive with diesel
Subsidies
Taxes
Customeracceptableprice
21. CONCLUSION AND NEXT STEPSA REALISTIC PLAN FOR A FRENCH INFRASTRUCTURE ROLL-OUT IS POSSIBLE AND ALLOWS A QUICK START OF A PROFITABLE MARKET
21
22. Source :
GROWINGCLUSTERS: THESTRUCTUREOFTHENETWORKTHATCOULDPROVIDENATIONWIDECOVERAGEBY2030
Area where HRS provide coverage
Highway with HRS
HRS in place as of 2014
2017
2020
2030
2025
•The rollout of Hydrogen Refilling Stations and vehicles should be phased to reduce investment risks in the early years
•The early clusters do not preclude initiatives starting in other regions
•The clusters should be demand-led and other clusters could form in the short term
•The mapped rollout does however show a progressive linkage of cities. This minimizes the number of HRS on corridors in the early years, when low utilization level would make them more unprofitable than HRS placed in cluster.
PRECISE HRS LOCATIONS TO BE DEFINED IN NEXT PROJET STEPS
23. Source :
THENUMEROUSLOCALHYDROGENACTIVITIESINFRANCECANACTASUNDERLYINGSTARTINGPOINT
23
X 5
X 1
Quadri
X 10
X 2
X 50
X 2
X 1
X 20
X up to 10
X 1
X 1
demos (8)
Planned 2014
By-product
Green H2: from photovoltaic, wind energy, or waste biogas
in use(end 2014)
on order /planned
Steam Methane Reforming (SMR)
Hydrogen vehicles
Hydrogen refilling stations
Hydrogen production
Planned
24. Source :
PUBLICAUTHORITIES’ SUPPORTISSTILLNEEDED
•Explicit recognition of FCEVs as a solution for future decarbonisedmobility
•In key public policies like the Energy Transition Law, national plans to reduce polluting emissions, low carbon strategy etc.
•Give a safe and stable regulatory framework
•To local authorities, solutions providers and customers
•Support significant demonstration projects
•Develop incentives to promote these solutions and build deployment volumes to allow a self-sustaining future
24
25. Source :
REGULATIONSAREEVOLVINGINTOANINTEGRATEDFRAMEWORKTOMINIMISEBARRIERSTODEPLOYMENT
•Regulation Codes and Standards (RCS) authorities
•Strong involvement over the last few years (DREAL, Regions...)
•Lots of recent progress made in the H2 regulatory framework
•FCEVs
•Registration of vehicles allowed under the EC Whole Vehicle Type Approval(1)
•Fire authorities are already actively involved in the safety procedures
•Underground car parks, tunnels and building/car park insurance to be defined next
•H2 production and transport
•Harmonization of authorization of procedures across France
•Definition of new thresholds for hydrogen industrial production (ICPE 1415)
•No identified barriers relating to transport of Hydrogen
•HRS siting
•Regulations are needed by end 2014 for captive fleets and by mid 2016 for fully public passenger car refuelling stations
25
(1) Regulations 79/2009 and 406/2010 applied through Arrêté of 22 mars 2011 (DEVR1108437A) in France
26. Source :
STRATEGYUNTIL2020
HRS + FCEV: NUMBER AND TYPE, PHASES…
•Core Customers identified
•First clusters should be deployed
•500-700 fleet Vans
•Tens of Trucks
•15 to 20 HRS
•Bi-pressure dispensing close to borders
•350bar for local fleets
•Mixture of on-site production and delivered H2depending on relative advantages at each site
•Levels of ambition among the regions will determine early locations
•And create trans-border corridors
•German corridor towards Dusseldorf
•Belgian corridor towards Brussels and Netherlands
EARLYCITIESAND FIRST CORRIDORS
26
27. Source :
2014 –2015 PLAN
POTENTIALDEPLOYMENTS
•5 HRS –80 kg/day (yellow dots)
•1 dual pressure
•4 x 350 bar
•400 FCEVs
•300 RE-EVs Vans
•100 FCEVs
2014-2015 CITIES
27
Green dots: Existingor underconstruction HRS
28. Source :
FUNDINGNEEDS(FIRSTESTIMATE)
28
20142015 - 20192020-20242025-2030FCEV/U (k€)100,060,040,025,0H2RE-EV/U (k€)50,030,023,019,0HRS 35MPa (M€)0,90,9HRS Medium (M€)1,21,20,80,6HRS Large (M€)0,90,7Vehicles (units)1501200119500760300Total CAPEX (M€)6,59,04414,518045,7Funding need (M€)1,72,00,00,0HRS Deployments (units)715319247Total CAPEX (M€)4,911,5319,0246,9Funding need (M€)3,810,595,70,0Total Fundings (M€)5,412,595,70,0Private partners HRS1,21223247
29. Source :
GROUPING THE EXISTING H2MOBILITY INITIATIVES CREATES
THE START OF A EUROPEAN HYDROGEN NETWORK
29
TEN-T Corridors
165 km 175 km
120 km
150 km
150 km
150 km
120 km
160 km
230 km
70 km
270 km
85 km
70 km
45 km
75 km
220 km
310 km
130 km
150 km
75 km
95 km
370 km
120 km
31. THE SOCIETAL COST SAVINGS BROUGHT BY FCEVS DISPLACING DIESEL ICE WILL
AMOUNT TO C. EUR500MILLION OVER THE 2015-30 PERIOD
Source: Element Energy 1 – As per societal cost used by the CGDD, before applying a discounting factor 2 – Discounting factor of 4%, as per CGDD approach,
undiscounted annual savings = EUR260m, 2015-30 savings = EUR850m
Annual CO2 emission savings (WTW), tCO2, 2030
0,4
1,6
-1.2
Diesel ICE FCEV
Quality of
life
15,600km p.a.
H2 production mix: WE
(75%), by-product (20%),
SMR (5%)
PM
1.6
SO2
kg per year
NOX
42
161
EUR, 2030
High population
density
Low population
density
Emissions of EURO 6 diesel ICE and corresponding cost1
121
180
Diesel ICE FCEV
-59
• The societal cost of the CO2 emissions, noise and
pollutants of a ICE vehicle amounts to EUR510 per
year vs. EUR160 for a FCEV in 2030
• Accounting for discounting of savings, the cumulative
benefits of the FCEV parc will be EUR140million per
year in 2030 and c. EUR500million over 2015-20302
CO2 EMISSIONS
A FCEV has no tailpipe emissions, and even accounting for
WTW emissions, offer significant savings over a diesel ICE (c. -
50% in 2020, increasing to -75% by 2030). This translates into
a saving of 1.2tCO2 per year by vehicle in 2030, when the
societal cost of CO2 is evaluated at EUR105/tonne1
AIR QUALITY
Air pollutants (e.g. NOx, Particulate Matter, SO2) affect
people’s health and life expectancy. Air quality targets are not
met in 15 areas in France, leading to the risk of fines by the
European Commission. The parc of FCEVs will avoid 1,300
tonnes of air pollutants by 2030, representing EUR98million
annual societal cost savings
Societal cost of noise1,
EUR/year, 2030
NOISE
Noise also impacts on
health, leading to further
benefits from FCEVs that
are quieter than
equivalent diesel vehicles
32. CO2 EMISSION SAVINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1.2MT P.A. IN 2030 AND 10MT P.A. IN
2050, HELPING FRANCE MEET ITS EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS
FCEV parc, cars and vans, million Annual CO2 emission savings,
WTW, Mt
• METHOD: FCEV sales projections as developed
by the European Climate Foundation1 are
combined with annual sales assumptions to
estimate the number of vehicles in circulation
(parc size), taking a 15 year life assumption, in
line with the CGDD approach.
• This results in a parc increasing from 0.8
million in 2030 to 7.3 million FCEVs by 2050
(17% of total light vehicles parc, broadly in line
with the ANCRE ‘decarbonisation through
electricity’ scenario2)
% parc
2%
9%
17%
% current light
vehicle emissions
1%
5%
9%
• Despite the limited parc share that FCEVs represent by
2030, their cumulative savings amount to 4Mt of CO2
between 2015-2030. The annual saving in 2030 (1.2Mt) is
the equivalent of taking 780,000 diesel ICE vehicles off
the road
• The annual savings will increase from 1.2Mt p.a. in 2030
to 10.4Mt p.a. in 2050, which represent 9% of current
WTW emissions of light vehicles
• FCEVs will allow the decarbonisation of long distance
vehicles that cannot transition to pure electric powertrain
CO2
emissions
2
8
6
4
0
2030 2040
7.3
2050
3.7
0.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: Element Energy ANCRE: French National Alliance for Energy Research Coordination CGDD: General Committee of Sustainable development 1 - ‘Fuelling Europe’s future’
European Climate Foundation report, June 2013 2 – This ANCRE scenario implies an FCEV share of 5% new passenger car registrations in 2030, rising to 20% in 2050
33. A TRANSITION TO HYDROGEN VEHICLES WILL IMPROVE THE TRANSPORT ENERGY
TRADE BALANCE AND ENERGY SECURITY
Source: Element Energy 1 – ‘Fuelling Europe’s future’ ECF report, 2013 2 – As electricity is mostly generated from renewables or based on nuclear for which
the strategic storage is equivalent to 1 year of demand vs. 3 months of storage for diesel 3 – CCFA
Energy security
and impact on
economy
2030
SMR
Water
Electrolyser
By-product
100%
2025
100%
Current 2020
100% 100%
At the EU level, the evaluation of macro economic impacts of H2 production share, %
the transition to low emissions vehicles1 shows it would have a
positive impact on GDP. Net additional jobs have been
evaluated at between 660,000 and 1.1 million by 2030, across
all industry sectors
At France level, the development of the FCEV market presents
two opportunities for the transport energy balance trade and
for employment:
H2 mobility will allow a move away from diesel (for
which value is mostly created abroad) to H2 production
that relies mainly on electricity, an energy vector with a
higher energy independence index than diesel2. The
production and sales of H2 for vehicles in France would
represent a value of over EUR700million p.a. by 2030
The automotive industry is still a large employer in
France (135,000 employees in manufacturing and over
200,000 for OEMs supply chain3). The skilled workforce
will present the opportunity of attracting the
manufacturing of high-tech FCEVs in France and thus
sustain/ provide further employment opportunities 700
Hydrogen value
chain
Based on assumption
that 88% of electricity
value is created in
France in 2030 (See
Appendix B for details)
x c. 0.8
million FCEVs
paying EUR1k
p.a. in H2
Value creation for
2030 in France from
H2 sales
million EUR
France Abroad
86%
14%