Ben Anderson – University of Southampton (@dataknut) Jacopo Torriti – University of Reading Richard Hanna – University of Reading Paper presented at BEHAVE 2014, Said Business School, Oxford, 3rd September 2014.

1. The Rhythms and Components
of ‘Peak Energy’ Demand
Ben Anderson – University of Southampton (@dataknut)
Jacopo Torriti – University of Reading
Richard Hanna – University of Reading
www.demand.ac.uk
BEHAVE Conference 2014
3rd September 2014

2. What’s the problem?
• Domestic demand for electricity is
particularly ‘peaky’…
• Infrastructure problems
• Network ‘import’ overload on
weekday evenings;
• Network ‘export’ overload at mid-day
on weekdays due to under-used
PV generation;
• Inefficient use of resources (night-time
trough)
• Carbon problems:
• Peak load can demand ‘dirty’
generation
UK Housing Energy Fact File
Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied
homes, England 2010-11
Gas consumption
The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between
households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as
much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy
consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has
so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation.
Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular
behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a
cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low
gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas
user. The behaviours in question can be clustered under three broad
headings:
• physical properties of the home – the particular physical environment
Gas use varies enormously from
household to household, and the
variation has more to do with
behaviour than how dwellings are
built.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
Heating
Water heating
Electric showers
Washing/drying
Cooking
Lighting
Cold appliances
ICT
Audiovisual
Other
Unknown
Watts
Filling the
trough
Peak load
• Cost problems:
• Peak generation is higher
priced energy

3. What to do?
Two inter-linked approaches to dealing
with ‘Peak’:
• Demand Reduction
• Just reducing it per se
• Demand Response
• Shifting it somewhere else in
time (or space and time)
This raises the crucial questions:
• What do people do during peaks?
• How has this evolved?
• What can shift and where can it
shift to?
UK Housing Energy Fact File
Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied
homes, England 2010-11
Gas consumption
The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between
households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as
much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy
consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has
so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation.
Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular
behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a
cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low
gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas
user. The behaviours in question can be clustered under three broad
headings:
• physical properties of the home – the particular physical environment
Gas use varies enormously from
household to household, and the
variation has more to do with
behaviour than how dwellings are
built.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
Heating
Water heating
Electric showers
Washing/drying
Cooking
Lighting
Cold appliances
ICT
Audiovisual
Other
Unknown
Watts
Filling the
trough
Peak load

4. But there’s another problem… UK Housing Energy Fact File
• This is an appliance
level view
• It tells us very little
about what people
do in peaks (and
troughs)
• And nothing about
change over time
• But time-use diary
data might…
Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied
homes, England 2010-11
Gas consumption
Gas use varies enormously from
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
Heating
Water heating
Electric showers
Washing/drying
Cooking
Lighting
Cold appliances
ICT
Audiovisual
Other
Unknown
Watts

5. So what constitutes peak?
ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, weekdays) % of persons reporting

6. So what constitutes peak?
ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, weekdays) % of persons reporting

7. The ‘average day’ is not that helpful
Monday Friday
ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK) % people reporting category – half hour summaries

8. Whose ‘peak’: gendered practices
Men Women
ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, all days) % people reporting category – half hour summaries

9. Overall
The ‘evolution’ of laundry 1975 - 2005
Multinational Time Use Study 1975-2005 (UK sample) – half hour summaries
% of laundry episodes
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
1.00%
0.50%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
0.00%
0.20%
4:00
5:30
7:00
8:30
10:00
11:30
13:00
14:30
16:00
17:30
19:00
20:30
22:00
23:30
1:00
2:30
Saturday
Friday
Thursday
Wednesday
Tuesday
Monday
Sunday
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
0:00
2:00
1974 Monday
2005 Monday
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
0:00
2:00
1974 Sunday
2005 Sunday
% point change

10. Whose ‘peak’: age/cohort variation
16-64 : weekdays 65+ : weekdays
ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, week days) % people reporting category – half hour summaries

11. Synchronisation and peaks…
• Occurs when practices are to some extent happening together over the
same time periods, across multiple spaces.
• Synchronisation matters because it generates peaks in energy demand
and implies potential to manage social practices.
Synchronisation high Synchronisation low
Many people doing the same
energy-intensive activity at
the same time e.g. cooking
Many people doing different
energy-intensive activities at
the same time
Many people doing the same
lower energy activity at the
same time e.g. sleeping
Many people doing different
lower energy activities at the
same time
Energy demand
higher
Energy demand
lower

12. Synchronisation index: relative synchronisation
of men and women
• ‘Trajectory’ 2011 time use
data (n = 500)
• Based on Shannon entropy
index
• Indicator of people ‘doing
the same thing’
• Chapela (2013)
dx.doi.org/10.13085/eIJTU
R.10.1.9-37

13. Summary
• Energy ‘demands’ are emergent from co-evolving
infrastructures and what people do (social practices)
• There are a range of factors that affect how these demands emerge
and how they are synchronised to produce ‘peaks’
• We need more than ‘average days’ and ‘appliance profiles’ to
understand these quantitatively
• Non-energy energy policy
• E.g. labour market participation influences the time & timing of
demand
• Next steps:
• Which kinds of people are engaged in similar social practices?
• Which sequences of practices are implicated in peak demand?

14. Thank you
Ben Anderson b.anderson@soton.ac.uk
Jacopo Torriti j.torriti@reading.ac.uk
Richard Hanna r.f.hanna@reading.ac.uk
www.demand.ac.uk