Anderson, B. (2014) The Time and Timing of UK Domestic Energy DEMAND. Keynote paper presented at the 2014 Otago Energy Research Centre Symposium, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, 28/11/2014.

1. The Time and Timing of UK Domestic
Energy DEMAND
Otago Energy Research Centre Symposium 2014
Ben Anderson b.anderson@soton.ac.uk (@dataknut)
Sustainable Energy Research Group, University of
Southampton
DEMAND End User Energy Demand Research Centre

2. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
The Menu
2
• What’s the problem
• Examples:
• ‘Peaks’
• ‘Evolving Demand’
• Lessons learnt
• Next Steps

3. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
What’s the problem?
 We need to know what drives domestic energy demand
3

4. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Why?
 Domestic demand for electricity
is particularly uneven…
 Infrastructure problems:
 Network ‘import’ overload on
weekday evenings;
 Network ‘export’ overload at mid-day
on weekdays due to under-used
PV generation;
 Inefficient use of resources (night-time
trough)
 Carbon problems:
 Peak load can demand ‘dirty’
generation
6
UK Housing Energy Fact File
Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied
homes, England 2010-11
Gas consumption
The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between
households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as
much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy
consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has
so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation.
Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular
behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a
cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low
gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas
Gas use varies enormously from
household to household, and the
variation has more to do with
behaviour than how dwellings are
built.
8 0 0
7 0 0
6 0 0
5 0 0
4 0 0
3 0 0
2 0 0
1 0 0
0
0 0 :0 0 0 2 : 0 0 0 4 :0 0 0 6 :0 0 0 8 : 0 0 1 0 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 1 4 : 0 0 1 6 :0 0 1 8 : 0 0 2 0 : 0 0 2 2 :0 0
H e a t i n g
W a t e r h e a t i n g
E l e c t r i c s h o w e r s
W a s h i n g / d r y i n g
C o o k i n g
L i g h t i n g
C o l d a p p l i a n c e s
I C T
A u d i o v i s u a l
O t h e r
U n k n o w n
W a t t s
 Cost problems:
 Peak generation is higher
priced energy

5. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Why?
 Domestic demand for electricity
is particularly uneven…
 Infrastructure problems:
 Network ‘import’ overload on
weekday evenings;
 Network ‘export’ overload at mid-day
on weekdays due to under-used
PV generation;
 Inefficient use of resources (night-time
trough)
 Carbon problems:
 Peak load can demand ‘dirty’
generation
7
UK Housing Energy Fact File
Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied
homes, England 2010-11
Gas consumption
The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between
households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as
much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy
consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has
so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation.
Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular
behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a
cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low
gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas
Gas use varies enormously from
household to household, and the
variation has more to do with
behaviour than how dwellings are
built.
8 0 0
7 0 0
6 0 0
5 0 0
4 0 0
3 0 0
2 0 0
1 0 0
0
0 0 :0 0 0 2 : 0 0 0 4 :0 0 0 6 :0 0 0 8 : 0 0 1 0 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 1 4 : 0 0 1 6 :0 0 1 8 : 0 0 2 0 : 0 0 2 2 :0 0
H e a t i n g
W a t e r h e a t i n g
E l e c t r i c s h o w e r s
W a s h i n g / d r y i n g
C o o k i n g
L i g h t i n g
C o l d a p p l i a n c e s
I C T
A u d i o v i s u a l
O t h e r
U n k n o w n
W a t t s
 Cost problems:
 Peak generation is higher
priced energy

6. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
What to do?
• Storage
• Demand Reduction
• Just reducing it per se
• Demand Response
• Shifting it somewhere else in time
(or space and time)
8
Filling the
trough
UK Housing Energy Fact File
Reducing
Peak load
Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied
homes, England 2010-11
Gas consumption
The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between
households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as
much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy
consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has
so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation.
Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular
behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a
cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low
gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas
Gas use varies enormously from
household to household, and the
variation has more to do with
behaviour than how dwellings are
built.
8 0 0
7 0 0
6 0 0
5 0 0
4 0 0
3 0 0
2 0 0
1 0 0
0
0 0 :0 0 0 2 : 0 0 0 4 :0 0 0 6 :0 0 0 8 : 0 0 1 0 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 1 4 : 0 0 1 6 :0 0 1 8 : 0 0 2 0 : 0 0 2 2 :0 0
H e a t i n g
W a t e r h e a t i n g
E l e c t r i c s h o w e r s
W a s h i n g / d r y i n g
C o o k i n g
L i g h t i n g
C o l d a p p l i a n c e s
I C T
A u d i o v i s u a l
O t h e r
U n k n o w n
W a t t s
Filling the
trough
Reducing
Peak load
This raises crucial questions:
• What do people do during peaks?
• How has this (co)-evolved and what does this imply for
shifting?
• How do energy ‘demands’ emerge from these doings (social
practices)?

7. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
But there’s another problem…
This is an appliance
level view
•It tells us very little about
what people do in peaks
(and troughs)
•And nothing about change
over time
But time-use diary
data might…
9
UK Housing Energy Fact File
Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied
homes, England 2010-11
Gas consumption
8 0 0
7 0 0
6 0 0
5 0 0
4 0 0
3 0 0
2 0 0
1 0 0
0
0 0 :0 0 0 2 :0 0 0 4 :0 0 0 6 :0 0 0 8 :0 0 1 0 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 1 4 :0 0 1 6 :0 0 1 8 :0 0 2 0 :0 0 2 2 :0 0
H e a t in g
W a t e r h e a t in g
E le c t r i c s h o w e r s
W a s h in g / d r y in g
C o o k in g
L ig h t in g
C o ld a p p lia n c e s
IC T
A u d io v is u a l
O t h e r
U n k n o w n
W a t t s

8. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
The Menu
10
• What’s the problem?
• Examples:
• ‘Peaks’
• ‘Evolving Demand’
• Lessons learnt
• Next Steps

9. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
So what constitutes ‘peak demand’?
Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, weekdays) % of persons reporting 11

10. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
What is the ‘average’ day?
Monday Friday
Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK) % of persons reporting, half hour summaries 12

11. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
What is the ‘average’ day?
Saturday Sunday
Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK) % of persons reporting, half hour summaries 13

12. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
What is the ‘average’ day?
Saturday Sunday
Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK) % of persons reporting, half hour summaries 14

13. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Whose peak ? – lifestage dimensions
16-64 (weekdays) 65+ (weekdays)
Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, weekdays) % of persons reporting, half hour summaries 16
http://www.demand.ac.uk/09/11/2014/databyte-peak-dinner/

14. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Whose peak ? – individual differences
X axis ordered by age within day
Source: ONS 2000 Time Use Survey Data (UK, all individuals) 17
Analysis by Giulio Mattioli (@giulio_mattioli) using Visual-TimePAcTS (Ellegård et al, 2010)
http://www.demand.ac.uk/13/03/2014/visualising-sequences-of-demand/
01:00 – 04:00
22:00 – 01:00
19:00 – 22:00
16:00 – 19:00
13:00 – 16:00
10:00 – 13:00
07:00 – 10:00
04:00 – 07:00
• Green: ‘care for
oneself’/ sleep
• Light blue: ‘care
for others’
• Pink: ‘house
keeping’
• Purple:
‘recreation’
• Yellow:
‘transport’
• Dark blue:
‘procure and
prepare food’
• Red: ‘employed
work / school’

15. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Whose peak ? – individual differences
X axis ordered by age within day
Source: ONS 2000 Time Use Survey Data (UK, all individuals) 18
Analysis by Giulio Mattioli (@giulio_mattioli) using Visual-TimePAcTS (Ellegård et al, 2010)
http://www.demand.ac.uk/13/03/2014/visualising-sequences-of-demand/
01:00 – 04:00
22:00 – 01:00
19:00 – 22:00
16:00 – 19:00
13:00 – 16:00
10:00 – 13:00
07:00 – 10:00
04:00 – 07:00
• Green: ‘care for
oneself’/ sleep
• Light blue: ‘care
for others’
• Pink: ‘house
keeping’
• Purple:
‘recreation’
• Yellow:
‘transport’
• Dark blue:
‘procure and
prepare food’
• Red: ‘employed
work / school’

16. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
The Menu
22
• What’s the problem?
• Examples:
• ‘Peaks’
• ‘Evolving Demand’
• Summary
• Next Steps

17. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Use of electricity by appliance type
Evolving demand – change is normal
24
9. Chart 4 shows the total amount of electricity consumption by household domestic
appliances between 1970 and 2011, which illustrates its steady growth of around 1.7
per cent per year over this period.
Chart 4: Electricity consumption by household domestic appliance, by broad type, UK,
1970 to 2011
1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 1
Source: DECC, ECUK Table 3.10
2 , 0 0 0
1 , 8 0 0
1 , 6 0 0
1 , 4 0 0
1 , 2 0 0
1 , 0 0 0
8 0 0
6 0 0
4 0 0
2 0 0
0
10. In 2011, consumer electronics were the largest consuming domestic appliances
group with an estimated consumption of 1,839 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent,
followed by wet appliances with an estimated consumption of 1,271 thousand tonnes
of oil equivalent and cold appliances with an estimated consumption of 1,192
thousand tonnes of oil equivalent.
11. Between 1970 and 2011, electricity consumption from consumer electronics
increased by 369 per cent, wet appliances by 146 per cent and cold appliances by
T h o u s a n d t o n n e s o f o i l e q u iv a l e n t
L i g h t C o l d
W e t C o n s u m e r e l e c t r o n i c s
H o m e c o m p u t i n g C o o k i n g
Owen. 2006. The rise of the machines—a
review of energy using products in the
home from the 1970s to today., Energy
Saving Trust, London.

18. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
UK Evolving demand: Laundry
27
• UK Laundry
1974-2005

19. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Problem: What is laundry?
28

20. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Problem: What is laundry?
29

21. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
The evolution of laundry I
30
% of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity
Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+)

22. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
The evolution of laundry II
31
% of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity
Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+)

23. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
The evolution of laundry III
32
% of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity % point difference in recorded laundry 1974-2005
Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+)

24. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Why?
33
% of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity
Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+)

25. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
The Menu
34
• What’s the problem?
• Examples:
• ‘Peaks’
• ‘Evolving Demand’
• Summary
• Next Steps

26. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Lessons learnt
 If:
 energy ‘demands’ are emergent from co-evolving infrastructures and what
people do (social practices) then
 We can see that:
 a range of factors affect how these demands emerge and how they are
synchronised to produce ‘peaks’.
 Data implications:
 Average ‘days’, ‘customers’ and ‘appliance profiles’ won’t do
 Modeling implications:
 Microsimulation, rather than ‘average types’, is needed to preserve
heterogeneity
 Policy implications:
 Non-energy energy policy
 E.g. working hours & schedules influence the time & timing of demand
35

27. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Next Steps
 Epidemiology of practices?
 Which kinds of people are ‘infected’ by similar energy-demanding
social practices?
 When and how did they spread?
 Do sequences matter?
 Which sequences of practices are implicated in peak demand?
 What happens if they are disrupted?
 Spatial distributions?
 Do estimated spatial distributions match to known local (LV)
network problems?
 Can we microsimulate demand response scenarios at local levels?
36

28. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014
Thank you
 Ben Anderson
 b.anderson@soton.ac.uk
 @dataknut
 github.com/dataknut
 www.energy.soton.ac.uk
 www.demand.ac.uk
37