Workshop slides for HTGF Family Day 2016

1. COACHING START-UPS UNDER CONDITIONS
OF EXTREME UNCERTAINTIES
High-Tech Gründerfonds | Family Day 2016
Bonn, Germany | May 31st, 2016
Bernhard Doll | doll@orangehills.de
Note: Optimised for presentation with tablets

2. Start-ups can be
game changers
in many
industries...

3. …and sometimes
a great way to burn
your money.

4. Many start-ups fail…

5. …because they build things nobody wants.

6. 6
A typical challenge:
From technology ...

7. ...to func�onal prototypes

8. 8
Affordable 3D
prin�ng hardware
Easy-to-use
so�ware (even
for non-
engineers)
(Costly) consumables to
make your CFO happy
...to products
and services for people

9. ...to innova�ve business models.

10. Technology
Customers
Economics
Strategy
Is the innova�on
desired by
customers and
users?
Is the innova�on
technologically
feasible ? Is the innova�on
suitable to reach your
strategic targets?
Is the innova�on
economically viable ?
Innovation

11. Innovation is about
dealing with uncertainties
in areas where you are not
expert in.

12. Building start-ups is still in
many ways an unstructured
and chaotic process.

13. How do you deal
with uncertainties?

14. Ignoring the level
of uncertainties by
pretending the
start-up process
can be planned
1
2
�me
level of
uncertain�es
Embracing
uncertainties by
structuring the
learning process in
the most efficient
way

15. We want start-ups teams to work with the
precision of surgeons, architects or scien�sts…

16. Business designStrategic Management
SCRUM
Kanban
Design Thinking
(Social) Prototyping
Business Modelling
Behavioral Economics
Lean Startup
Team Research
How do we do
business in the
future?
What is our
bet on the
future?
How can we
excite
customers with
simple means?
How do we
work together
as a team?
…with

17. What is our
bet on the
future?
How can we
excite
customers with
simple means?
Business Design is an integrative
process model to design new
business under conditions of
extreme uncertainties.
visual worksheets
7 weeks per itera�on

18. Let’s talk about a startup
that didn’t fail…

19. Germany’s largest distributor of
residen�al mortgages

20. How do we
do business
in the
future?
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Inspired by www.businessmodelgeneration.com.
BUSINESS MODEL Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Target groups
Who are our sales targets and
who will be using our offerings?
Resources Partners
Primary
What is our primary
customer and user
segment that unlocks
the most value in our
business and is easily
accessible?
Customers Users
InvestmentsCostsPricing & revenue streamsPattern
How much money do we need to spend before we earn?What are our revenue streams and how much do our customers pay (per unit)?How, when and how often do we charge our customers? What are the most important costs of creating and delivering the offerings?
Brand & messages Offerings
Channels
Relationships
Channels
Processes
Profit formula
What (internal) key resources do we need
to create and deliver the offerings?
Who are our (external) key partners
to create and deliver the offerings?
What bundle of products and services do we offer
to our customers and users?
How do we want our brand to be perceived and
what is our story to sell the offerings?
Through which channels do our
customers and users want
to be reached?
What kinds of relationships do
our customers and users expect?
Through which channels do our partners
want to be reached?
What (internal) key processes do we need
to create and deliver the offerings?
Delivery R&D
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#bml_en
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What job(s) are our
customers and users
trying to get done?
Job(s) to
get done
Pains
Gains
What do we do better than
our competitors to create
the value, which is hard
to copy?
Unfair
advantage
What value do we create
for customers and users
to get their job(s) done?
Core
value
DNA
Incremental
redesign
Disruptive
innovation
Use the “Hypotheses &
Experiments Canvas” to
challenge your business
model by revealing critical
assumptions and simple
ways to test them.
Use the ”Target Groups
Canvas” to segment
customers and users based
on behavioural attributes.

21. How do we
do business
in the
future?
The first business model of interhyp.de...

22. “Interhyp is Germany‘s
largest distributor of
residential mortgages.
As a broker, Interhyp
does not act as a lender
but instead selects the
best mortgages for its
customers among offers
from over 250
commercial banks,
saving banks and
insurance companies.
We focus on
competent, personal
and objective
consulting by our
approximately 316
mortgage consultants.
Private customers
receive advice from our
homepage
www.interhyp.de and
through 23 regional
offices in key German
cities.”
Source: Interhyp Annual
Report 2011
…relied on digital sales channels and a
call-center to interact with customers.

23. What was their “big bet”
on the future in their sales
approach?
1. Discuss this question with your
right neighbor
2. Describe your key hypothesis and
how you would test it to manage
your uncertainties
What is our
bet on the
future?

24. H: “They believed…”
E: “I would have tested H
by…”
1. Discuss this question with your
right neighbor
2. Describe your key hypothesis and
how you would test it to manage
your uncertainties
What is our
bet on the
future?

25. What is our
bet on the
future?
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS
Analogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others
because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market,
and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers
+ Users
+ Brand & messages
+ Channels
+ Relationships
+ Offerings
+ Resources
+ Processes
+ Partners
+ Profit formula
+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your
business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Importance
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are
reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies
eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business
when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further
before you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
Validation
Experiments
How can we test the identified
hypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both
very important and uncertain?
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of
relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?
1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.
2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or
possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.
3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards.
Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour.
It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses
can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan
Canvas” to investigate
important analogs even
further to see what we can
learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
run your experiments in
short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings
Canvas” and start designing
your first products and
services to hit the market
and excite customers.
Will the big
banks accept us
as business
partners?
Do people trust
an IT pla�orm for
mortgage
business?
Can we prevent
customers from
taking our rates
and defec�ng to
other banks?
…that X% of our
visitors on
landing page
submit an
applica�on
MVP with lean
web frontend and
closed ALPHA
community
…applica�ons in
our database and
customers
connected with
banks
...that X out of 50
close the deal
within MVP test
run of 2 weeks
...that X big banks
join the pla�orm
and transfer their
interest rates daily
LOI nego�a�ons
with banks (S, M,
L)
...wide range of
financial
products in
database
X out of 10 big
banks in
Germany sign an
LOI within next 4
months
...

26. “Interhyp is Germany‘s
largest distributor of
residential mortgages.
As a broker, Interhyp
does not act as a lender
but instead selects the
best mortgages for its
customers among offers
from over 250
commercial banks,
saving banks and
insurance companies.
We focus on
competent, personal
and objective
consulting by our
approximately 316
mortgage consultants.
Private customers
receive advice from our
homepage
www.interhyp.de and
through 23 regional
offices in key German
cities.”
Source: Interhyp Annual
Report 2011
Interhyp.de today with
100 physical offices across Germany.

27. What is our
bet on the
future?
What’s your “big bet” on
the future in your real
startup today?
Use the next five minutes to reflect on
your current business(es) as founder,
investor, coach etc.

28. core tools
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved.
LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Functional requirements
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en
Should have
What is the extended set of user stories
that increases the value of the product
and/or service to the next level?
What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)?
A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least
the following requirements:
+ Are your hypotheses covered?
+ Can you charge your customers?
+ Is your DNA embedded?
+ Does your mother like it?
To define user stories, look through
the lenses of customers and users.
Could have
What are optional user stories
that can help us better serve our
customers and users in the future?
F
Hypotheses
Keep in mind that each user story should
be independent of any other user story.
Competitive benchmark
Non-functional requirements
What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”)
considered in its offering to customers and users?
Fc
What non-functional requirements should be
embedded in our product and/or service?
NF
...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill?
NFc
Ease of implementation
DNAfit
Must have
What is the minimal set of user stories
customers and users expect to be implemented, in order
to deliver the core value of the product and/or service?
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What value do we create
for customers and users
to get their job(s) done?
Core
value
What do we do better than
our competitors to create
the value, which is hard
to copy?
Unfair
advantage
DNA
What job(s) are our
customers and users
trying to get done?
Job(s) to
get done
Pains
Gains
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
implement your lean
offerings in short cycles.
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS
Analogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others
because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market,
and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers
+ Users
+ Brand & messages
+ Channels
+ Relationships
+ Offerings
+ Resources
+ Processes
+ Partners
+ Profit formula
+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your
business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Importance
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are
reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies
eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business
when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further
before you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
Validation
Experiments
How can we test the identified
hypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both
very important and uncertain?
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of
relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?
1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.
2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or
possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.
3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards.
Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour.
It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses
can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan
Canvas” to investigate
important analogs even
further to see what we can
learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
run your experiments in
short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings
Canvas” and start designing
your first products and
services to hit the market
and excite customers.
How can we
excite
customers with
simple means?
What is our
bet on the
future?
...and many other tools:
+ Business Ecosystem
+ Customer Journey
+ KPIs
+ Target Groups
+ Compe��ve Landscape
+ Financial Sanity Check
+ Business Model Inspirator
+ UI Design
7 weeks per itera�on

29. + Agile process design to deal with uncertainties
+ Easy way to manage the “unmanageable”
+ Holistic thinking in business models, not just products
+ Strong emphasis on doing, not planning
+ Systematic learning based on evidence, not gut feeling
+ Prototyping to support learning and team development
+ Lean product design to generate cash quickly
+ Rigid task management with short cycles to get teams into flow

30. core tools
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved.
LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Functional requirements
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en
Should have
What is the extended set of user stories
that increases the value of the product
and/or service to the next level?
What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)?
A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least
the following requirements:
+ Are your hypotheses covered?
+ Can you charge your customers?
+ Is your DNA embedded?
+ Does your mother like it?
To define user stories, look through
the lenses of customers and users.
Could have
What are optional user stories
that can help us better serve our
customers and users in the future?
F
Hypotheses
Keep in mind that each user story should
be independent of any other user story.
Competitive benchmark
Non-functional requirements
What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”)
considered in its offering to customers and users?
Fc
What non-functional requirements should be
embedded in our product and/or service?
NF
...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill?
NFc
Ease of implementation
DNAfit
Must have
What is the minimal set of user stories
customers and users expect to be implemented, in order
to deliver the core value of the product and/or service?
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What value do we create
for customers and users
to get their job(s) done?
Core
value
What do we do better than
our competitors to create
the value, which is hard
to copy?
Unfair
advantage
DNA
What job(s) are our
customers and users
trying to get done?
Job(s) to
get done
Pains
Gains
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
implement your lean
offerings in short cycles.
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS
Analogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others
because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market,
and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers
+ Users
+ Brand & messages
+ Channels
+ Relationships
+ Offerings
+ Resources
+ Processes
+ Partners
+ Profit formula
+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your
business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Importance
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are
reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies
eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business
when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further
before you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
Validation
Experiments
How can we test the identified
hypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both
very important and uncertain?
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of
relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?
1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.
2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or
possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.
3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards.
Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour.
It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses
can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan
Canvas” to investigate
important analogs even
further to see what we can
learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
run your experiments in
short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings
Canvas” and start designing
your first products and
services to hit the market
and excite customers.
How can we
excite
customers with
simple means?
What is our
bet on the
future?
...and many other tools:
+ Business Ecosystem
+ Customer Journey
+ KPIs
+ Target Groups
+ Compe��ve Landscape
+ Financial Sanity Check
+ Business Model Inspirator
+ UI Design
7 weeks per itera�on
Download for free:
h�p://bit.ly/1TOdoG3
Thank you.

31. Dr. Bernhard Doll
Orange Hills GmbH
Sendlinger Str. 25
80331 München, Germany
E. doll@orangehills.de
T. +49-89-4520545-0
F. +49-89-4520545-69
Follow us on Twitter:
@orangehillsgmbh