This is the front page of a 15 page report for Enders Analysis on the outlook for a cheap iPhone. It gives the thesis - for the supporting argument and data, contact me.

1. Benedict Evans
+44 7880 786 727
benedict.evans@endersanalysis.com
@benedictevans
6 August 2013 [2013-071]
A cheaper iPhone has been discussed almost since the
original launch in 2007, but we believe costs have fallen
and the market developed to the point that it now makes
sense for Apple to offer a $200-$300 (unsubsidised) model
We see a positive but fairly small financial impact on
Apple. The key benefit would be defensive: by extending
the ecosystem and preserving iOS as developers’ first
choice, Apple would secure the whole portfolio
We believe a well-executed and distributed $200-$300
iPhone would sell double-digit millions of units – a
significant challenge to Android OEMs and Google.
However, the US market’s pricing structure might limit the
impact there
“They made outlandish profits for about four years. What this cost them was their
future. What they should have been doing is making rational profits and going for
market share.” – Steve Jobs on Apple’s management after he was fired.
The iPhone is expensive. Apple’s average selling price (ASP) has been in the region
of $600 since launch where the global average mobile phone price is $180, Android
averages $250-$300 and the key price for Android in China is RMB1000 ($160).
Handset subsidies mask some of this premium, but higher prices still mean higher
contract prices in most markets, while around 50% of global mobile users are on
prepay. Meanwhile, Apple’s policy of selling older models at a discount appears to
have had only a limited impact – a two year old iPhone 4 at $400 is still a high-end
price.
A separate, cheaper line has been discussed almost since the original iPhone
launched, and it is highly likely that Apple has been considering them for as long.
However, we see three reasons why this could now be the moment that Apple
would move from prototypes to shipping a product:
• Experience: Apple has always been unwilling to make devices with a poor
experience in order to hit a lower price point. We believe costs have fallen to the
point Apple could now make a phone with a good user experience at a $200-
$300 price
• Opportunity: Apple’s share of phone sales continues to grow, but it sells 10% of
global phone units where smartphone sales have passed 50%
• Defence: the growth of Android makes it increasingly appealing to developers,
and if nothing changes we could see iOS becoming a second priority for the best
new apps by 2014. This would be a major threat to the appeal of the whole
iPhone franchise
Notes on a cheap iPhone