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Now that the 2020 #AKelect is Over ...
Open on
November 4, 2020
… What the Winners Should Know
10 -Year Outlook is bleak ...
● Under current law,
FY22 deficit equals
$2.4 billion (50% of
projected spending)
● Cumulative deficit
FY22-29 equals $18.5
billion (average $2.3
billion/yr)
● The “rainy day
savings” are gone
Will require a broad, “all the above” solution ...
● Even a 15% ($700
million) spending cut
still leaves a $1.7
billion deficit
● Even implementing
Gov. Dunleavy’s
2019 plan ($1 billion
in combined cuts +
diverted revenues)
still leaves a $1.4
billion deficit
A “glide path” approach taxes future gens ...
A 5% per year glide path (using the ERA to
fill) ...
… results in a $7.5 billion reduction in the
future Permanent Fund investment base.
Distributional effects are critical ...
● Who pays is critical
● Impacts economic
effect: using PFD cuts
have the “largest
adverse impact” on
the overall economy
(ISER 2016)
● Impacts equity: why
should mid & lower
income Alaska
families bear more of
the burden

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Now that the 2020 #AKelect is over, what the winners should know (open on 11.4.2020)

  • 1. Now that the 2020 #AKelect is Over ... Open on November 4, 2020 … What the Winners Should Know
  • 2. 10 -Year Outlook is bleak ... ● Under current law, FY22 deficit equals $2.4 billion (50% of projected spending) ● Cumulative deficit FY22-29 equals $18.5 billion (average $2.3 billion/yr) ● The “rainy day savings” are gone
  • 3. Will require a broad, “all the above” solution ... ● Even a 15% ($700 million) spending cut still leaves a $1.7 billion deficit ● Even implementing Gov. Dunleavy’s 2019 plan ($1 billion in combined cuts + diverted revenues) still leaves a $1.4 billion deficit
  • 4. A “glide path” approach taxes future gens ... A 5% per year glide path (using the ERA to fill) ... … results in a $7.5 billion reduction in the future Permanent Fund investment base.
  • 5. Distributional effects are critical ... ● Who pays is critical ● Impacts economic effect: using PFD cuts have the “largest adverse impact” on the overall economy (ISER 2016) ● Impacts equity: why should mid & lower income Alaska families bear more of the burden