Sir Mark Walport gave a series of public lectures on climate change at Science and Discovery Centres across the UK. In these talks he explored what the science tells us, and what we, as a developed nation, should do in response. These slides come from the talk given in Glasgow on 14 March 2014, but differ only slightly from the slides used in earlier talks. See also the video of the Bristol talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tKi8OSW640

1. The planet in our hands: Responding to
climate change
Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
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2. Scientific
Communications
Policy
There are three challenges relating to climate
change
2 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change #CCtalks
Credit: Reuters

3. There is a crucial distinction between weather
and climate
3 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Source: Met Office (2014)
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Credit: PA
Credit: Sodahead
Credit: PA

4. There are a number of natural influences on our
climate, operating on different timescales
4 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Examples include:
• Seasonal cycles
• Multi-annual cycles (e.g. El Niño and La
Niña which recur every few years)
• Multi-decadal cycles (e.g. the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which causes
shifts in the climate every 20-30 years)
• Solar cycles (solar cycles range from the 11
year cycle between sunspot minima and
sunspot maxima to much longer
Milankovitch cycles related to the Earth’s
orbital parameters, most obviously seen in
the 100,000 year ice age cycles)
Source: Met Office
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5. The greenhouse effect was established in 19th
Century physics
5 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Source: Met Office (2014)
…without it the Earth would be about 30°C cooler
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6. 6 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
• Photosynthesis began
2.5 billion years ago
• Cyanobacteria were first to evolve
the capability
• Carboniferous forests evolved ~
300 million years ago
The history of our atmosphere - inheritance
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Credit: Natural History Museum
Credit: Natural History Museum

7. We have inherited our energy
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Credit: PD
Credit: Agencia Brasil/CC-BY-SA-3.0-BRCredit: Meredithw/CC-BY-SA-3.0

8. Source: Kaplin (2009)
Evidence From
•Domesday Book
•Soil Record
•Climate Modelling
8 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Humans modifying the environment - deforestation
England and
Wales
deforested
90%  17%
tree cover
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9. 9 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Humans modifying the environment - industrialisation
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Credit: Leonard Bentley

10. 1 million
years ago
100,000
years ago Today
10,000
years ago
100
years ago
1,000
years ago
Human
Occupation of
New
Environmental
Zones
Unequivocal
Anthropogenic
Warming
England and
Wales
deforested
90%  17%
Cities & the built
environment
emerge
10 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Domestication of
Fruits
Agriculture
Pasture and
Plough arrive
in UK
The Practical
Steam Engine
We must be conscious of our legacy
Regular
Fire Use
Complex
Stone
Tools
Future
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11. 11 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Our population has grown exponentially
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
Year
WorldPopulation(Millions)
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12. 12 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Source: NOAA
Credit: IPCC
Our atmosphere is catching up
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13. Warming of the climate is unequivocal
13 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly 1850–2012 (IPCC, 2013)
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14. Observations show consistent trends across the
climate system
14 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Source: IPCC (2013)
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15. ….ocean heat content is rising
15
mean
(1993-2009)
= 0
The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change #CCtalks

16. ….sea level is rising
16
mean
(1961-1990)
= 0
The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change #CCtalks

17. ….and the cryosphere is changing
17 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Arctic sea ice at summer minimum
has been in steady decline
(Lowest recorded summer sea ice minimum
in the satellite record, 16 September 2012.
Credit: NSIDC, 2012)
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are both
losing mass
(Credit: Ice2Sea, 2013)
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18. Has global warming stopped?
© Crown copyright Met Office
18 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Not unusual to have
periods of little or no
warming, other such
periods can be seen in
the instrumental record
Current global average
temperatures are still at
record levels
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (2013)
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19. 19 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Plot of energy accumulation in ZJ (1 ZJ =
1021
J) within distinct components of Earth’s
climate system (IPCC, 2013)
Ocean warming dominates the total warming of the
globe
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20. Warming is not uniform across the globe
20 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Observed change in surface temperature 1901 - 2012 (IPCC, 2013)
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21. Not climate change, but climate disruption
21 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Trends in the frequency (or intensity) of various climate extremes since the middle of the 20th
century, except for North
Atlantic storms where the period covered is from the 1970s (IPCC, 2013)
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22. Scientists have increasing confidence in
attribution of extremes
UK and US scientists studied a selection of extreme events which occurred in 2012.
Half of the extreme events studied displayed some evidence that human induced climate
change was a contributing factor.
USA heatwave, spring 2012 Iberian drought winter 2011/12 Arctic sea ice minimum, autumn 2012
New Zealand rainfall, winter 2011Australian rainfall, summer 2012 Inundation from Hurricane Sandy, autumn 2012
22 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change #CCtalks
Credit: Todd Heisler/New York Times Credit: Glyn Baker/CC-BY-SA-2.0 Credit: NASA
Credit: ABC News Credit: FNDC Credit: US Air Force

23. Sea level rise will continue to rise, increasing the
risk of coastal flooding
Strong mitigation
No mitigation
23 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
IPCC (2013)
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24. Climate change will act to increase water availability in some regions and
decrease it in others: dry regions of the world are expected to become drier, and
wet regions to become wetter.
24 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Climate change has implications for water
security, and how we manage water resources
Credit: staticantics/CC-BY-ND-2.0
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25. Crop productivity will be affected by higher temperatures and changes to water
availability
Higher temperatures will also increase stress upon cattle
At lower levels of temperature rise there may be some positive benefits for crop
production at higher latitudes, but at higher levels of temperature rise the net effect
of climate change is expected to be negative
Warmer oceans and ocean acidification will also impact food security
Climate change has implications for regional and
global food security
25 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Credit: CraneStation/CC-BY-2.0
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26. 26 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
As temperature increases migration patterns will change, and some species will not
be able to survive
Disease patterns will also change as the migration patterns of carriers of plant,
animal and human diseases will change, posing risks to both human health but also
agricultural productivity
A warmer climate will increase stress on ecosystems and
put entire species at risk of extinction
Credit: dr_relling/CC-BY-2.0
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27. 27 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Climate change poses a number of health risks
Higher temperatures and increased risk
of heatwaves brings a greater risk of
heat-related mortality (especially for the
very young and very old). Cold related
mortality would be expected to decrease.
The distribution of disease vectors is
expected to change.
Increased flood risk brings increased risk
of water borne diseases in flood prone
regions.
Credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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28. We will also see more damaging extremes
28 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Credit: kloniwotski/CC-BY-SA-2.0
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29. Bednarsek et al. 2012
The oceans also currently absorb about half the
CO2 from burning fossil fuels
29 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Royal Society and US National Academy of Sciences, 2014
….with consequent implications for marine life
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Credit: pnup65/fotolia

30. Mitigate
Adapt
Suffer
What are the policy responses?
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Credit: Harvey McDaniel
Credit: Ian Britton/CC-BY-NC-ND-3.0
Credit: Reuters

31. Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities
continue to rise
Annual CO2 emissions from human activities, estimated by the Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (from IPCC, 2013)
31 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Fossil fuel
and cement
CO2
emissions
(GtC yr-1
)
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32. New York’s daily carbon dioxide emissions (2010 figures) shown as metric ton spheres of CO2 (at standard pressure)
Source: Carbon Visuals
32
What if our emissions were visible?
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Credit: Carbon Visuals
Credit: Carbon Visuals

33. CO2 has a long atmospheric lifetime
© Crown copyright Met Office
Decay of atmospheric CO2 pulse, as calculated by a range of coupled climate-carbon models
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy33 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
For any given
addition (or ‘pulse’)
of CO2 to the
atmosphere around
half is taken up by
the land and oceans
within a few
decades, the other
half will remain in the
atmosphere for
hundreds of years
100 (GtC)
5000 (GtC)
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34. Future temperature rise depends on cumulative
emissions
The findings of the IPCC and implications for science and technology in support of climate change and energy policy34 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change #CCtalks

35. 35
Coal is still the primary source of today’s
electricity generation here in the UK
Coal 15000 MW (36.7%)
Gas 12000 MW (29.3%)
Nuclear 6000 MW (14.8%)
Wind 3800 MW (9.3%)
Other 1000 MW (2.5%)
Dutch IC 1000 MW (2.4%)
French IC 990 MW (2.4%)
Hydro 710 MW (1.7%)
Storage 310 MW (0.8%)
Oil 0 MW (0.0%)
Irish IC 0 MW (0.0%)
East-West IC 0 MW (0.0%)
498
gCO2 / kWh
40.9GW
The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Total output for the last 24 hours
Figures as of 12:30, 14 March 2014
Source: GridCarbon
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36. How is all this energy (all fuels) used?
36 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
energy supplied by
fossil fuels
87%
(Figures are for 2012. Source:
DUKES 2013)
Services, agricultural & other
18.5%
Transport
37.9%
Domestic
30.7%
Industrial
17.5%
+
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37. How is all this energy used: Transport breakdown
37 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Goods Vehicles 26%
Cars
48%
Rail
2%
Ships
1%
Aeroplanes
24%
Proportion of energy use by transport type in
2012 (source: ONS, 2013)
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38. • Climate Change Act (2008) requires emissions cuts by at least 80% by
2050 relative to 1990 levels, and by at least 34% by 2020
• Five-year carbon budgets set three budget periods ahead; first ones
already set in legislation cover period 2008-2027
• Set the trajectory towards the 2020 and 2050 targets, and ensure that
cumulative emissions are limited.
• A requirement for Government to publish policies and proposals for
meeting the carbon budgets
• The independent Committee on Climate Change to advise Government on
level of budgets and how to meet them, and to scrutinise delivery through
annual progress reports to parliament.
• Every five years assess the risks for the UK of the current and predicted
impacts of climate change, and publish plans and policies to adapt to
climate change risks identified
• Powers to require public bodies to assess and report on plans to address
climate risks within sectors
Ambitious targets to
reduce emissions
Binding carbon
budgets
An accountability
framework
Ensuring the
resilience of UK plc
38
Government has legislated to ensure effective
mitigation and adaptation
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39. The policy challenge: Viewing difficult issues
through lenses
Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
Parkhill et al, Transforming the Energy System – Public Values, Attitudes and Acceptability, 2013 (UKERC)
39 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change #CCtalks
Credit: Thomas Shahan/CC-BY-NC-ND-2.0

40. Credit: Ian Britton/ CC-BY-NC-2.0
Credit: Pieter van Marion/CC-BY-SA-2.0
Credit: Ludovic Hirlimann
There are demand-side solutions
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Credit: iStockphoto

41. CC BY-SA 2.0 - Russ Ferriday
41 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
And supply-side solutions
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Credit: Bidgee/CC-BY-SA-2.0
Credit: hddod/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0Credit: Russ Ferriday/CC-BY-SA-2.0
Credit: Bellona

42. www.my2050.decc.gov.uk
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43. Do we need another Apollo or Manhattan project?
• The challenge is at
least as great
• Major projects are
required, with funding
on a large scale
• However, both had a
well-defined single,
technological objective
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy43 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
• The objective now is a planetary
one and no single roadmap can
be drawn
• Need to take the best elements of the approach
taken in these projects and apply them to a more
complex scenario
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Credit: PD
Credit: NASA
Credit: NASA

44. Climate change: science to policy issues
Changing our energy mix brings both challenges
and opportunities
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
We need innovation in
technologies, and in the
electricity system.
There is high export potential
and the UK is at the forefront of
research in a number of areas,
including innovation in wind
turbines, next generation solar
and nuclear technologies.
Full scale Carbon Capture and
Storage is currently unproven.
44 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
The UK is one of the first
countries with a full scale test
planned. Bioenergy and CCS
together could actually reduce
net emissions.
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Credit: edupic Credit: Bellona Credit: Stacey Peak Media

45. Many changes to behaviour will benefit our health as
well as our environment, and help save money
45 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change #CCtalks
Credit: AP
Credit: PD
Credit: davipt/CC-BY-NC-SA-2.0
Credit: Jason Coleman/CC-BY-NC-SA-2.0

46. We also need to adapt to the impacts of climate
change
46 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
The 2012 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment identified risks across sectors,
including agriculture, forestry, health, buildings and infrastructure
There are practical steps we can take to be more
resilient to future climate
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Credit: IES JRC Credit: Adelaide Advertiser Credit: Daily Mail
Credit: iStockphoto Credit: smatlin blogspot

47. 47 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
There are actions we can all take to reduce emissions,
and in many cases at the same time save money
CHANGE
PRACTICES
CHANGE
ELECTRICITY SOURCES
DE-ENERGISE
YOUR HOME
Replace older, less
efficient appliances
Fit an
electricity monitor
Turn devices off at the plug
to cut their standby usage
Turn off lights
in empty rooms Wash clothes at a
lower temperature
Use a lower energy
shower system
Use low-energy
light bulbs
Fit PV solar panels
Air-dry wet laundry
Install a CHP
biomass boiler
Defrost fridge/freezer
regularly
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48. 48
Wear a
vest/jumper
Close internal doors
Utilise waste heat
after cookingOnly heat
main rooms
Close curtains
at night
CHANGE
PRACTICES
Turn the
Thermostat down
Retrofit wall and
loft insulationFit draught
excluders
Reflective panels
behind radiators
Insulate tanks/pipes
Block up
unused fireplaces
INSULATE
YOUR HOME
Fit double or
triple glazing
The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Replace older, less
efficient boilers
Install below-ground
heat pumps
Install a CHP
biomass boiler
CHANGE
HEAT SOURCES
Fit non-PV
solar panels
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49. Which ever policy options are adopted there will
be a cost, whether now or later….what price a
grandchild?
49 The planet in our hands: Responding to climate change
Credit: RoHerreraP/CC-BY-2.0
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