The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is a national authority providing a wide range of environmental information and forecast services for the Australian community. Traditionally, the Bureau’s mission has been to observe, understand and forecast the behaviour of the atmosphere. Over the past decade and in addition to existing wave forecasting services, the Bureau has responded to the need for new products and services, in particular information, warnings and forecasts on ocean temperature, salinity, currents, tides, storm surges and tsunami warnings. The ocean temperature, salinity and current forecasting capability that underpins these services was developed via the “BLUElink>” project which was established with participation of CSIRO, the Bureau and the Royal Australian Navy. This partnership has delivered a state-of-the-art Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System (OceanMAPS), deployed and run operationally by the Bureau. OceanMAPS includes an ocean model, a data assimilation system, real-time observations and atmospheric forcing. Tide and tidal stream predictions are provided for locations around Australia and for some locations in the South Pacific. State-of-the-art tsunami monitoring and forecasting capabilities have been developed to provide tsunami warnings for Australia and all countries bordering the Indian Ocean. A new coastal forecasting capability is being developed to more accurately forecast hazards associated with sea level anomalies such as storm surges generated by tropical cyclones and mid-latitude storms. This information ensures a more predictable ocean environment and safer communities. It provides critical capability to Australia’s maritime industries, Navy, emergency services, specialized meteorological services providers, research community and the public. Specific examples of using Bureau’s ocean forecasts in monitoring of oil spills, search-and-rescue operations, Defence, port operations and prediction of coastal hazards (tropical cyclones, storm surges and tsunamis) will be discussed.

1. OCEAN FORECASTING SERVICES PROVIDED BY THE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Rick Bailey et al.
Blue Planet Symposium, 25-29 May 2015, Cairns

2. • Observe, understand and forecast our weather,
climate, oceans and water resources
• Assist our stakeholders via products, services
and advice
OUR MISSION

3. OUR PURPOSE
Safety Sustainability Well being Prosperity

4. Observations Modelling
Situational awareness
Analysis
Re-analysis
Forecasts
(Deterministic)
Outlooks
(Probabilistic)
Projections
(Scenarios)
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
(°C)
0

5. ‘Environmental Intelligence’
Conclusions drawn from …
… environmental observations and models
… to guide decisions and actions
… by governments, businesses and
individuals.

7. MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
• Marine weather
• Wave forecasts
• Tide prediction service
• Tsunami warnings
• Ocean temperature, salinity, currents
and sea level forecasts
• Tropical cyclone and storm surge

8. SUPPORT FOR DEFENCE
• Daily ocean forecasts out to 7 days
• Eddy-resolving
• Ensemble forecasts
• Tactical operations and planning

9. SUPPORT FOR SEARCH & RESCUE
Weather and ocean forecasts
assisting environmental protection
and air-sea rescue by the
Australian Maritime Safety Authority
(AMSA)
Sea level and ocean currents
forecast

10. Two categories of tsunami warning for individual coastal zones, including
advice issued to public, media, emergency services, shipping (via AMSA, port
authorities), commercial operators….
Designated Tsunami Service Provider (TSP) for 28 countries around the Indian Ocean
Tsunamis
SUPPORT FOR SAFETY OF
COASTAL COMMUNITIES

11. SUPPORT FOR COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING &
CLIMATE ADAPTATION
Analysis of sea level records around
Australia & Southwest Pacific
Coastal Station
Deep Ocean Station
National and
regional sea level
monitoring network
feeds into global
observations used
by IPCC

12. SUPPORT FOR SAFE AND
EFFICIENT NAVIGATION, PORT &
MARITIME OPERATIONS
Tide predictions for over 400 ports,
harbours and other significant
locations
Providing commercial services such as
tailored environmental forecasts to
support logistics operations, such as
delivery of offshore platforms to drilling
sites.

13. STORM SURGE PROJECT (2013-17)
• Nationally consistent service
• Australia & offshore territories
• Tropical cyclones (probabilistic)
• Synoptic storms (deterministic)
• Dynamical forecasting capability
• Extended lead time -> 48 hours

14. STORM SURGE PROJECT (2013-17)

15. MARINE INFORMATION SERVICES
• Climatologies
– Tropical Cyclones
– Sea Surface Temperature
– Sea Level

16. CLIMATE FORECASTING
• Global
• Coupled ocean-atmosphere
• Data assimilation
• Ensembles
• Seasonal timescale
• Forecasts for early intervention
• Resilience to climate change
Spillman and Alves 2009, Spillman 2011
POAMA: Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia

17. Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies
(to 30 April 2015)
Typical El Niño
pattern

18. • First in the world
• Timely
• Improve community and stakeholder
awareness
• Identify future threats for long term
planning and policy development
Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012 1997/98 GBR bleaching event
CORAL BLEACHING RISK FORECASTS

19. SUPPORT FOR WILD FISHERIES
Hobday et al 2012
POAMA forecast
Tuna
data
Observed
temperature
preferences
200m
Habitat
distributions
over depth
Zoning

20. SUPPORT FOR AQUACULTURE
Spillman and Hobday 2014, Spillman et al in review, http//:poama.bom.gov.au
Seasonal scaled POAMA
forecasts of farm
temperatures
Manage vulnerability to
temperature and rainfall
extremes
Tasmanian Salmon and Queensland Prawns

21. REMOTE SENSING MARINE WATER QUALITY

22. A whole of Great Barrier Reef perspective on…
Nutrients Sediments Temperature
MARINE WATER QUALITY DASHBOARD

23. MARINE RESEARCH
• Dynamical modelling
• Ocean state modelling (BLUElink>)
• Tsunami forecasting
• Total sea level
OceanMAPS
ACCESS
Harmonic tide
Aggregate Sea level
forecast
Observations
Corrections

24. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
• National and international
• Sea level gauges
• Bathythermographs
• Drifting buoys
• Wave buoys
• Profiling floats
• Tsunameters
• Volunteers

25. THANK YOU!