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The
                  Compiled by
                     ANA
                    SANTI
                 Illustrations by
               NATHALIE LEES




Luxury
Report
SPONSORED BY
Introduction I Luxury report
Sponsored by




          ‘We ask how the luxury market is
          faring and what the future holds’
          _ Ana Santi




          T
                                 he fashion industry has had      market? We decided to find out by launching
                                 its fair share of ups and        Drapers’ first in-depth report into the sector.
                                 downs since the global              In September, we compiled a survey and asked
                                 recession of 2008, but for       businesses in the luxury fashion market – including
                                 the luxury fashion sector,       boutiques, brands, etailers, department stores,
                                 the ‘downs’ have been few        multiples and agents – to tell us how they’re faring
                                 and far between. The             today and their expectations for the future. Over the
          mainstream market looked on with envy as                next 14 pages, we analyse these findings across
          profits in the luxury sector soared and huge,           different business segments, from ecommerce and
          shiny flagships opened as quickly as those in the       social media to tourism, international retailing and




                                                                                                                             Drapers / November 17 2012 _ 25
          mid-market closed.                                      distribution and buying strategies.
             Luxury fashion seemed invincible, but then              Further in-depth analysis also comes from
          Burberry posted a profit warning in September.          Guy Salter, deputy chairman of Walpole, the
          Warning bells began to ring as China – the darling      membership group for the British luxury industry,
          of growth for luxury – saw growth in its economy        whose insights help to interpret our findings.
          slow. So what does this mean for the UK luxury          Ana Santi, deputy editor, Drapers




          ‘It’s vital to know your customers
          and how they identify with you’
          _ Robert McKee




          I
                       nfor is proud to sponsor Drapers’             By its very nature, couture will remain the
                       Luxury Report. In the constantly           seductress for luxury fashion. Much of luxury
                       evolving world of fashion                  fashion still manufactures many of its own
                       it is essential to know your customers     products but, as their product lines have evolved,
                       and understand how they identify           many are now sourcing globally.
                       with you. Brand identity must be              Infor is no stranger to the luxury goods market.
                       ingrained in the entire production         Our first luxury goods customer was signed in
          process, from initial design to shop-floor delivery     1992 and they are still with us today. For more
          to meet the ever-demanding expectations of              than 18 years, we have helped more than 1,100
          luxury consumers.                                       fashion companies in 194 countries improve
             Luxury was founded with the model ‘seduce            their processes to become more efficient and
          the customer, control the supply chain’. While this     competitive. But why do four of the top 10 luxury
          model is still intact today, we find that many in the   fashion companies use us? Because we
          luxury sector have found success using a model          understand every business’s individual needs and
          that relies on ‘listen-react-respond to the             tailor our products accordingly.
          customer and collaborate with the supply chain’.        Robert McKee, director, fashion industry strategy, Infor
luxury report I the current outlook




                                  Luxury                                                                                                      S
                                                                                                                                                               ince the global recession of
                                                                                                                                                               2008, one sector of the fashion
                                                                                                                                                               industry has appeared, perhaps
                                                                                                                                                               unsurprisingly, to weather the
                                                                                                                                                               storm. While the mid-market




                                  lifestyle
                                                                                                                                                               began to witness plummeting
                                                                                                                                                               sales and business closures,
                                                                                                                                               the luxury sector boomed.
                                                                                                                                                  But then, this September, UK luxury fashion
                                                                                                                                               bellwether Burberry posted a profit warning.
                                                                                                                                               Admittedly, investors breathed a sigh of relief
                                                                                                                                               this month, as Burberry reported an 8%
                                                                                                                                               increase in revenues for the first half, but
                                                                                                                                               pre-tax profits dropped almost 30% due to
                                                                                                                                               a one-off payment to end its fragrance and

                                  Drapers finds out how the luxury fashion sector                                                              beauty licence.
                                                                                                                                                  Yet last month, global consultancy Bain &

                                  is faring and its expectations for the future                                                                Company released its annual Luxury Goods
                                                                                                                                               Worldwide Market Study showing a slowdown
                                                                                                                                               in luxury goods sales. According to the report,
                                  Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES                                                            the value of the total luxury goods market is
                                                                                                                                               expected to rise by 5% at constant exchange
                                                                                                                                               rates to €212bn (£170bn) this year, compared
Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 26




                                                                                                                                               with an increase of 13% last year.

                                                                                                                                               In the same week, LVMH – the largest luxury
                                                                                                                                               goods group by sales – said organic sales growth
                                                                                                                                               in the third quarter had fallen to 6%, compared
                                                                                              Was your turnover
                                                                                                                                               with 15% growth in the same period last year.
                                                                                              for 2011 up or                                      Mulberry soon followed, also posting a profit
                                                                                              down on 2010?                                    warning, which took almost one third off its
                                                                                                                                               market value.
                                                                                              Down

                                                                                              14.9%
                                                                                                                  On average, by
                                                                                                                  how much did
                                                                                              Up                  turnover increase?

                                                                                              85.1%               23.2%
                                                                                                                                             On average, how
                                                                                                                                             much did your
                                                                                                                                             profits increase?
                                                                                                                  Was your profit for 2011
                                                                                                                  up or down on 2010?

                                                                                                                          Down 22.6%
                                                                                                                                             18.5%
                                      If you have bricks-and-mortar stores, how many
                                      do you expect to have by the end of 2013?
                                                                                       6.3%




                                       60.9%                         32.8%                                              Up 77.4%

                                       Same                         More          Fewer




                                                                                                                    100%
                                                                                                                    of department stores
                                                                                                                    said turnover was up
                                                                                                                    in 2011 against 2010
Sponsored by




   So, should the luxury sector in the UK be           In terms of investment in 2012, 54.1%
worried? Our survey found a healthy industry,       of respondents (the highest percentage)              / Industry View /
confident of further growth in the next year.       invested in their staff, with 51.4% also             ‘Luxury ecommerce
But few businesses were complacent. There
was an air of caution, with the majority not
                                                    investing in digital marketing and the same
                                                    figure investing in new products and brands.
                                                                                                         will continue to grow’
expecting the economy to pick up until the          Digital marketing topped the investment list         Guy Salter
end of 2014.                                        for brands. For multiple retailers, staff and
   While that overview paints a good picture of     digital marketing were most important, while         It seems counterintuitive to those outside the
the state of the overall luxury fashion market in   department stores ploughed money into staff,         industry that the luxury sector has experienced
the UK, the most interesting nuggets lie in the     new brands and digital marketing.                    strong growth despite the challenging
details of our survey. Some 85.1% of                                                                     economic environment. This resilience hasn’t
respondents said their turnover was up in 2011      Looking ahead, 92% and 89% of businesses             surprised me but the level of performance has.
against 2010 and 77.4% echoed the sentiment         expect turnover and profits to rise respectively     Conditions have worsened recently, so we
in terms of profits. Splitting this down further,   over the next year. Luxury brands forecast           must be ready for a tougher ride but I remain
department stores and pure-play etailers            turnover to increase by an average of 27%,           sure our business model is well suited to
came out on top, with 100% of respondents           while indies expect a 15% rise.                      continue to benefit from the type and pattern
in each segment recording a rise in turnover          Optimism is clearly in the air and, over           of affluent spending.
over the same period. For brands, the number        the next few pages, we look at how luxury                The luxury department stores and the pure-
was 90% and for indies it was 73%. On               businesses hope to fulfil these ambitions.           play luxury etailers have held up particularly
average, turnover increased by 23.2% and                                                                 well. Those department stores who strain every
profit by 18.5% across all segments.                                                                     sinew to keep maximum freshness, product
   Luca Solca, senior luxury goods analyst at          Do you expect profits to rise next year?          variety, exceptional in-store experience and
investment company Exane BNP Paribas,




                                                                                                                                                                  Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 27
                                                                                                         service will remain appealing to the luxury
is not surprised that independent boutiques,                                                             consumer and international tourists.
which had a good year nonetheless, didn’t                                                                    It’s good to see that businesses have
fare as well as department stores and brands                                                             continued to invest in their online presence and
last year. “Brands are integrating their               Yes
                                                                                                         digital marketing, although it would have been


                                                       89%
distribution more and more, particularly                                                                 shortsighted not to do so, as luxury brands’
with mono-brand stores. The traditional                                                                  ability to produce high-quality content gives
independent has less of a role to play and                                                               them an advantage. Luxury ecommerce will
they find it harder to finance their businesses,”                                                        continue to grow for those that offer a truly
                                                       No


                                                       11%
he explains. “And department stores are                                                                  integrated customer experience. Few are now.
performing more of a selection function. Look                                                            Simple things like user experience, navigation
at Liberty – it has come up with an interesting                                                          and checkout could be much improved.
selection of brands and products, with nicher                                                            Deputy chairman, Walpole
brands and designers to offer consumers
something different. Luxury consumers are
                                                                                                       What did you invest in this year?
keen to find novelty. They’re paying more
attention to their spend, to differentiation
                                                                                                       New EPoS system                     Opening stores
and distinction.”
                                                       The average
                                                       increase in profit
                                                                                                       16.2%                               27%
                                                       of multiples was

Do you expect turnover to rise next year?              28%                                             Digital marketing                   M-commerce


   Yes                                                                                                 51.4%                               16.2%
 92%                                                                                                   Union Pay                           Personal / VIP shopping
                      Indies expect
                      turnover to rise
                                                                                                       16.2%                               27%
                      by an average of

                      15%
                      in the next year
                                                                                                       Interiors / shopfit                 Staff


                                                                                                       48.6%                               54.1%

                                                                                                       Mandarin speakers                   CRM systems

                 No
                8%                                                                                     16.2%                               29.7%

                                                                                                       New products / brands               Paying down debt


                                                                                                       51.4%                               27%
luxury report I going global
                                  Sponsored by




                                                                                   Do you sell
                                                                                   internationally?

                                                                        No 18.2%



                                                                                      Yes
                                                                                      81.8%
                                                                                                                    If you sell
                                                                                                              internationally is it via:
                                                                                                      A website	                       85.7%
                                                                                                      A licensing agreement 	          17.9%
                                                                                                      An agent 	                       14.3%
                                                                                                      Own international stores 	         7.9%
                                                                                                      Multi-brand retailer 	           10.7%
                                             What percentage of your business
                                             is from international sales?

                                             Less than 10%	              37% 	
                                             10%-20% 	                  18.5%
                                             21%-30% 	                   7.4%
                                             31%-40% 	                   7.4%
                                             41%-50%	                    3.7%
                                             51%-60% 	                  11.2%
                                             61%-70% 	                   7.4%
                                             71%-80%	                    7.4%
                                             81%-90%	                     0%
Drapers / NOVEMBER 17 2012 _ 28




                                             91%-100%	                    0%




                                                                                                                                                       What percentage of your sales
                                                                                                                                                       in the UK come from tourists?




                                                                                                                            41%-50%	                     More
                                                                                                                            5%                           than 50%
                                                                                                                                                         10%

                                                                                                                                                                            Less than 10% 	
                                                                                                                                           31%-40% 	
                                                                                                                                           10%                              30%

                                                 40%
                                                 of department stores
                                                                                                                                      21%-30% 		
                                                                                                                                      5%
                                                 sell internationally
                                                 via their website

                                                                                                                                                              10%-20% 		
                                                                                                                                                              40%
International
  exchange        Luxury businesses are looking overseas for growth




                                                                                                                                       Drapers / NOVEMBER 17 2012 _ 29
                                     Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES




W                                                     32%
                                 hen Burberry                                merchandise making its way into all the markets
                                 posted its profit                           globally. Are luxury brands doing all they can
                                 warning in             of indies sell
                                                                             to combat this dilution to both brand equity and
                                 September, the        internationally       revenue? It would seem that a key to combatting
                                 brand blamed         via their website      luxury counterfeiting comes through the use of
                                 in part the                                 technology to verify product pedigree. From


                                                     44%
                                 slowdown in the                             serialisation to the use of embedded RFID
Chinese economy. Bain & Company’s annual                                     [radio-frequency identification] through the
report also attributed the decline in growth of         of respondents       entire supply chain – from concept to consumer
the luxury goods market to Chinese consumers             said Western        – the products and all their components have
spending less at home and giving fewer gifts.           Europe is their      to be traceable throughout the value chain.”
                                                       best-performing
Clearly, luxury businesses have been relying                                    Of those who sell to international markets,
                                                     international market
heavily on thriving international markets,                                   85.7% do so via a website. Other methods such


                                                     100%
notably China, to drive overall growth.                                      as licensing agreements, via multi-brand stores
   In the UK, according to our survey’s                                      and own stores, remain relatively low, with
respondents, international sales will continue                               less than 20% of respondents choosing
to be important to overall growth, but these           of multiples sell     each model, thereby highlighting potential
                                                     internationally; 82%
businesses have far from saturated their sales        via a website; 36%
                                                                             new sales channels.
opportunities abroad. Although 81.8% of              via their own bricks-
respondents sell to international markets,            and-mortar stores      Drilling into these numbers, we found
37% of businesses (the highest percentage)                                   that 57% of brands and all multiple retailers
said less than 10% of their turnover comes from                              sell to international markets, and 32% of indies
international sales, with 18.5% (the second                                  do so. Andrew Robb, chief operating officer at
highest percentage) claiming international sales                             Farfetch.com, which facilitates independent
make up between 10% and 20% of turnover.                                     retailers’ online businesses, says 32% is actually
   “The luxury sector has seen solid growth in                               quite high. “It’s really difficult for independents
economically emerging Asia with the rapid                                    to sell online internationally because they have
evolution of the Chinese and other economies,”                               to deal with the complexities of pricing, returns
says Robert McKee, director, fashion industry                                and marketing,” he explains. “To be both a great
strategy at Infor. “The recent slowing in the rate                           online and offline retailer you need to invest, but
of that rapid economic evolution will have an                                most boutiques are small. Matches and Browns
obvious impact on that rate of growth – but it                               have put serious online teams in place and
doesn’t have to impact profitability. Of equal                               investment. But if you don’t have an online
concern has to be the dilution of luxury brand                               channel, you’ll suffer. The boutiques that do it
equity stemming from counterfeit luxury                                      well will be fewer [in the future]. It comes down     u
luxury report I going global




                                  to the owners having a passion and intuitive
                                  understanding of the online space, and in
                                  particular, online marketing. You need massive
                                  international appeal.”
                                     In terms of specific international territories,
                                  Western Europe gets the top spot, with 44% of


                                                                                                   46%
                                  respondents saying it was their best-performing                                                                          Which are your best-performing
                                  market. The US topped the list for 36% of                                                                                international markets?
                                  businesses. Other territories were more balanced,
                                  with 28% placing China fourth in the rankings,
                                                                                                   of respondents said the majority
                                                                                                   of tourists come from China while
                                                                                                                                                           Western Europe
                                  the same percentage putting Brazil in fifth place                                                                        18% of multiples said this
                                                                                                   31% said Western Europe was the
                                                                                                                                                           was their number one market
                                  while 36% said Australia was their eighth                        second biggest tourist group
                                  best-performing market.

                                  Looking ahead, 60% of businesses expect
                                  the above mix to change over the next five years.
                                  What is interesting from the results is the way
                                  that different territories will, on the whole, be on
                                  a more level playing field. For example, Western
                                  Europe is still predicted to be the number one         second biggest tourist group. Further down the       make shopping a priority when travelling.
                                  international market for the respondents, but only     list, 23% said Russians were at number six and       Products are becoming more diversified and
                                  30%, rather than 44%, believe so. There could be       46% said Brazilians were ranked seventh.             the demand for high-end, luxury products
Drapers / NOVEMBER 17 2012 _ 30




                                  two reasons for this. Either the respondents are          “Non-EU international spend in the UK has         and tailor-made services is increasing among
                                  simply unsure or, as growth in emerging markets        shown continual growth year on year – with China     international shoppers. Due to the tax refund
                                  slows, businesses are more reluctant to put all        leading this growth, reporting spend increases       policy and exchange rate, many European luxury
                                  their eggs in one Chinese basket and are, instead,     of 29% year on year between January and              products are estimated to be up to 20% to 30%
                                  spreading themselves across territories depending      September,” says Richard Brown, vice-president       lower than in their home nations, and often
                                  on their business type and those territories’          of tax-free shopping operator Global Blue UK.        overseas tourists will still choose to buy an item
                                  different demographics. Having said that, 53%          “Europe is seen as the world’s leading destination   from London, even if it is available in their home
                                  of respondents said China is having the biggest        for luxury shopping, especially among those who      country, so that they are able to talk about buying
                                  impact on the global fashion industry, followed                                                             it from a famous London store.”
                                  (far behind) by the US at 13%.
                                     China also leads the way in tourism – 40% of          / Industry View /                                  Brown adds that China and the Middle
                                  businesses said between 10% and 20% of their             ‘Luxury attracts                                   East remain the top international spenders,
                                  sales in the UK come from tourists, with 46% of                                                             representing 54% of all international non-EU
                                  businesses ranking the Chinese top of their tourist
                                                                                           a global clientele’                                spend. “Chinese spend has seen steady year-on-
                                  table. 31% said Western Europeans were their             Guy Salter                                         year increases. However, it is the Middle Eastern
                                                                                                                                              nations who have seen the most substantial
                                                                                           I am surprised that of the businesses surveyed,    increases – 50% year on year in September,
                                                                                           40% of them noted that only 10% to 20% of          with some individual transactions exceeding

                                      China
                                      the country
                                                                                           their UK sales came from tourists and that 37%
                                                                                           said international sales made up less than 10%
                                                                                                                                              £1m,” says Brown.
                                                                                                                                                 He believes that the top international
                                                                                           of their turnover. I would expect those figures    spenders are unlikely to change dramatically
                                      impacting most
                                      on the global                                        to be higher, with tourists and international      in the next few years, but adds that Global Blue
                                      fashion sector                                       sales accounting for a much bigger percentage      has seen significant increases in spend from
                                      at the moment                                        of overall sales of the UK luxury businesses       Nigerian and Indonesian visitors. “These two
                                                                                           surveyed. But a factor in this could be the        countries, which account for only 9% of the

                                      30%
                                                                                           different trading patterns experienced in          total non-EU spend, have shown enormous
                                                                                           2012 with the Jubilee and the Olympics.            year-on-year growth in September compared
                                      of brands                                               Luxury is a global business attracting          with last year – Indonesia at 54% and Nigeria
                                      said they                                            a global clientele. Perhaps some UK luxury         at 32%,” says Brown. “For Nigerians, London
                                      didn’t expect
                                      more sales
                                                                                           brands need to work harder to become more          has become a top shopping destination, with
                                      to come from                                         commercial and more relevant in certain            many visiting to purchase UK items cheaper
                                      tourists in                                          key overseas markets. Likewise all brands are      than imported and sold in their native Lagos,
                                      the next year                                        now looking seriously at how to get better         and Nigerian men particularly enjoy getting
                                                                                           at attracting and selling to affluent visitors.    suited and booted in UK designer brands.
                                                                                              I am not surprised that the Chinese are            “Nigeria is forecast to become Africa’s biggest
                                                                                           ranked top of the tourist table and we             economy by next year. Meanwhile, Indonesia is
                                                                                           are working closely with the Government            only in the 15 top international spenders in the
                                                                                           to help further increase Chinese visitor           UK, and only 1% of the population are able to
                                                                                           numbers to the UK.                                 travel for holiday or business reasons, but their
                                                                                           Deputy chairman, Walpole                           September average monthly sales are comparable
                                                                                                                                              to China and the Middle East.”
Sponsored by




What percentage of
your total turnover




55%
comes from wholesale?
                                                                                                 What percentage of your
                                                                                                 turnover do you expect
                                                                                                 wholesale to contribute
                                                                                                 over the next five years?


                                                                                                 39.5%
                                “The wholesale model does not have
                                enough margin. Only a few established
                                wholesalers will survive – those who are
                                able to review their business and approach
                                to consumers, including investments in
                                e-business, to become more internationally
                                known,” said one respondent




                      Doing it for
                      themselves
                        With sales from wholesale divisions expected to continue to
                          decline over the next five years, brands in the luxury
                                sector are turning their attention to retail
                                             Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES
19%
                                                                         of brands are
                                                                         producing more
                                                                         collections than




  46%                                                                                                                          27%
                                                                         a year ago




                                                                                                                               of respondents said
  of respondents said womenswear
                                                                                                                               accessories sales were
  sales were up between 10% and
                                                                                                                               up between 10% and 20%
  20% compared with a year ago
                                                                                                                               compared with last year




                                                                                                                           50%
                                                                                                                           of footwear sales were up between
                                                                                                                           1% and 10% compared with a year ago




O
                         ver the past few years,       brands are taking steps to manage their own          Hudson Walker International. “Nobody used
                         we’ve seen many luxury        distribution. But brands have to be prepared         to talk heavily about sales [in the luxury sector]
                         brands report stronger        to invest more capital back into their business to   but brands are developing much more aggressive
                         sales from their retail,      finance directly-operated stores, for example.”      business models with underlying sales ethics. It’s
                         rather than wholesale,        He also expects fewer independent boutiques          a very sales-driven environment now with more
                         divisions and, as a result,   to enter the market. “The more sophisticated         commercially-oriented roles.”
                         have focused their efforts    boutiques will become masters of selection,
on growing the former. The luxury brands               in a smaller scale to department stores.”            As for buying strategies among retailers,
surveyed said 55% of sales come from their                This shift is also affecting the skillset among   forward order remains the norm, representing
wholesale channel but, over the next five years,       luxury professionals, says Mathew Dixon,             62% of total budget. But in the next year, this
they expect wholesale to make up less than             director at luxury recruitment consultancy           is expected to contribute to more than half of
half of total turnover – 39.5%. Respondents                                                                 buyers’ budgets – 53%. Respondents listed
explained the reason for this predicted change,                                                             the following as their best-selling brands (in no
with one saying “the wholesale model does not            / Industry View /                                  particular order): Vivienne Westwood, J Brand,
have enough margin”. Another added: “The                 ‘Wholesale is                                      Equipment, Isabel Marant, Alexander McQueen,
wholesale segment is falling down. Only a few
established wholesalers will survive, those who
                                                         tougher than ever’                                 Stella McCartney, Diane von Furstenberg, Louis
                                                                                                            Vuitton, Rick Owens and By Malene Birger.
are able to review their business and approach           Guy Salter                                            Looking at specific markets, sales were
to consumers, including investments in                                                                      generally up on a year ago for the majority
e-business, to become more internationally               Wholesale will always be with us but it is         of respondents – 89% – across womenswear,
known.” One respondent simply said this is               tougher than ever. It’s not just the squeeze       menswear, kidswear, accessories, footwear and
now the “rule of thumb”.                                 on margins but the lack of control. There is a     lingerie. Only 10% of respondents said sales
                                                         trend towards getting out of accounts that are     were down in womenswear, kidswear, footwear
As investment firm Exane BNP paribas’                    either too accessible or don’t present the right   and lingerie, with menswear and accessories
Luca Solca says: “If wholesale isn’t dead, then it’s     environment for luxury, even if that means         showing a clean sheet. 25% of respondents
severely damaged.” Solca explains that industry-         taking a short-term hit on revenues.               said menswear sales were up between 10%
wide, deep discounting over the past few years              The strength of menswear and accessories        and 20%. Meanwhile, 50% said footwear
has led brands with a traditional wholesale model        isn’t a surprise and in my view is based on        sales had increased between 0% and 10%,
to become more protective and take more control          underlying strong fundamentals.                    and 46% said womenswear sales had risen
of all elements of their business, from pricing,         Deputy chairman, Walpole                           by between 10% and 20%, while 27% said
to marketing and distribution. “The strongest                                                               accessories had seen the same increase.           u
luxury report I buying & distribution




                                                60%
                                                of etailers’ budgets
                                               go on forward order
                                                                                                                                                               Forward order is
                                                                                                                                                               expected to make up



                                      Manufacturing case study Honey Clothing                                                                                  53%
                                                                                                                                                               of total buying
                                      Mahbub Ullah, accounts manager
Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 34




                                                                                                                                                               budget in the
                                                                                                                                                               next 12 months		
                                      Customers                   high-end brands are         motivated high street        London-based
                                      Christopher Kane,           making some of their        brands and designers.     manufacturers are
                                      Paul Smith, Preen,          lines here in the UK            Consumers are         competing with
                                      Roland Mouret               and we are benefiting.      more aware of where       established
                                                                     I think the luxury       their clothes are being   manufacturers from
                                      As a Sedex-certified        sector has traded           made and they are         France and Italy.
                                      [an ethical and             better than the rest        willing to pay extra if   Established British
                                      responsible supply          of the fashion market       made well in an ethical   designers are also
                                      chain standards body]       [in the economic            working environment       choosing to bring back
                                      premium outerwear           downturn].                  in this country.          their production from
                                      manufacturer, trading          The British Fashion          We’re experiencing    continental Europe to
                                      is relatively sound         Council has better          demand for high-          this country. As long as
                                      and improving every         organised London            quality pure wool, and    we can keep up the
                                      year. More and more         Fashion Week in recent      specialised leather is    quality, the demand
                                      British designers and       years, which has            growing each year.        will grow further.




                                      Manufacturing case study Johnstons of Elgin
                                      James Dracup, group managing director
                                      Customers Burberry,         which affected our          China, which, although       Next year I expect
                                      Chanel, Hermès              customers.                  slowing down, will        continued growth

                                      Trading is tough. A
                                                                  A slowdown in
                                                                  developing markets
                                                                                              continue to grow.
                                                                                                  Both private-label
                                                                                                                        with private-label
                                                                                                                        couture and luxury         46%
                                                                                                                                                   of womenswear sales were
                                      mild winter in 2011 left    is also affecting our       supply to global          brands, and a more
                                                                                                                                                   up between 10% and 20%
                                      our customers with          global luxury clients.      brands and the            effective sales effort     compared with a year ago
                                      too much inventory in           The luxury sector       development of            from our own

                                                                                                                                                   50%
                                      our product categories      has traded better than      our own-brand offer       company in the
                                      resulting in small          the wider market,           with independent          Scottish tourist market,
                                      orders for 2012. The        however, it has slowed      wholesale customers       the wider market and       of footwear sales were
                                      Olympics, weather           in terms of growth          and via our own retail    particularly the US.       up between 0.1% and 10%
                                                                                                                                                   compared with last year
                                      and a less competitive      potential compared          has driven growth.           We intend to grow
                                      currency in relation to     with two years ago.             Menswear is           our export sales from
                                      the eurozone all
                                      impacted on tourist
                                                                  Opportunity still exists
                                                                  in markets such as
                                                                                              particularly strong as
                                                                                              is the local Scottish
                                                                                                                        the current 25%
                                                                                                                        turnover to more
                                                                                                                                                   27%
                                                                                                                                                   of respondents said
                                      travel in August 2012,      Brazil, India, Russia and   tourist market.           than 30%.                  accessories sales were
                                                                                                                                                   up 10%-20% on last year
Sponsored by




                                     How is your buying
                                          budget split?

                                          Forward order

                                     61.67%
                                 Closer to and in-season          Manufacturing case study
                                    16.88%                        Harris Tweed
                                                                  Malcolm Campbell, sales
                                 Resort / pre-collections         and marketing director
                                    16.88%
                                                                  for the Carloway Mill
                                                                  Customers Brooks Brothers, Chanel, Saks
                                          House brands

                                     51.67%                       Trading is currently very good. We are sampling
                                                                  well for autumn 13, and our top-end customers
                                                                  appreciate the marketing and images we have
                                            Own brands
                                                                  created to promote the history and provenance
                                   40.83%                         of Harris Tweed.
                                                                     We believe the luxury sector has traded
                                                                  well because clients seek quality and products
                                                                  that last. Price deflation over the past 20 years
                                                                  has created a disposable product, which is


                                58%
                                                                  no longer acceptable. Our customers want
                                                                  a product that is robust and fit for purpose,
                                                                  and they are prepared to pay for it.




                                                                                                                         Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 35
                       of respondents said menswear                  We have also developed two new finishes
                       sales were up between 0% and
                                                                  working with WT Johnson textile finishers of
                        10% while 25% said they were
                             up between 10% and 20%               Huddersfield. The new finishes and creative
                                                                  colours and designs will drive sales.
                                                                     Demand in the UK luxury sector is less strong
                                                                  than in other countries such as Japan, the US
                                                                  and Europe, probably because the UK high
                                                                  street brands over the years have driven the
                                                                  price of Harris Tweed down, so it does not
                                                                  reflect the artisan processes of carding,
    What is your                                                  spinning, hand-loom weaving and finishing
 best-selling brand?                                              that the luxury market tends to respect,
                                                                  appreciate and pay for.
 Alexander McQueen
   By Malene Birger
Diane von Furstenberg
       Equipment
     Isabel Marant
        J Brand                          Manufacturing case study
     Louis Vuitton
      Rick Owens
                                         Alfred Brown
   Stella McCartney                      Ian Brown, joint managing director
 Vivienne Westwood
                                         Customers               hold up better than        strong, especially
                                         Aquascutum, Jaeger,     the middle market.         slightly bolder colours.
                                         Paul Smith              Fabric woven in                Next year, I expect
                                                                 Britain is still strong    traditional English
                                         Trade is very good.     and this plays into        fabrics, with a modern
                                         We think people         the luxury market.         twist, to drive sales.
                                         are buying less but         The biggest driver         I think the Jubilee
                                         spending more on        is the fact that all our   and Olympics have
                                         individual items,       fabrics are woven in       given us a belief in
                                         which is helpful to     Britain and some of        ourselves as a nation
                                         us, because being       this sentiment is          and this encouraged
                                         a European weaver       beginning to show          the demand for British
                                         we will always be at    in the womenswear          manufacturing and
                                         the luxury end.         market, which is           goods. We have had a
                                            In difficult         growing for us.            good year and we will
                                         economic climates,      Our biggest market         be pleased if we can
                                         the luxury and bottom   though is menswear –       maintain this growth
                                         ends of the market      semi-plain fabrics are     in the year to come.
luxury report I social media




                                  The move to                                                                                                             What proportion of your business is online?




                                  multichannel
                                                                                                                                                          None	                                   15.8%
                                                                                                                                                          0.1%–20%	                               32.9%
                                                                                                                                                          21%–40% 	                               22.4%
                                                                                                                                                          41%–60% 	                               14.5%
                                                                                                                                                          61%–80%	                                 6.6%
                                                                                                                                                          100% 	                                   7.8%
                                  Investing in online, particularly social media platforms,
                                  is key for retailers’ growth in the luxury sector
                                  Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES




                                  W
                                                                   ith digital         their game though, with only 57% of brands
                                                                   marketing listed    and 45% of indies on Twitter. 57% of brands         / Industry View /
                                                                   high among the      have a Facebook page, while 41% of indies do so.    ‘It’s a powerful way
Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 36




                                                                   different areas
                                                                   of business that    Newman believes social media offers the
                                                                                                                                           to build consumers’
                                                                   respondents         biggest opportunities to brands “because they       Guy Salter
                                                                   invested in for     have a stronger relationship with the end
                                  2012, it comes as no surprise that the internet,     consumer, it’s about how you leverage social        Social is a hugely influential communications
                                  and social media in particular, are crucial to the   media and create a community,” he says. “I          channel. A lot of luxury brands are reticent
                                  growth of the luxury sector.                         question the traction of Google+, but if a brand    about engaging with their consumers via social
                                     Almost 33% said up to a fifth of their business   isn’t on Pinterest, it’s missing out. Pinterest     media, as it can be difficult to retain control. But
                                  comes from online sales, while 22% said online       seems to have the highest level of engagement       if harnessed in the right way, it is a powerful and
                                  sales account for between 21% and 40% of             where the engagement is very product-focused.       effective way to build a brand’s consumer base,
                                  turnover. More than 90% expect online sales to       Facebook is harder – people are engaging with       generating customer engagement and loyalty,
                                  account for even more of their total turnover in     friends and family on it.”                          attracting visitors to online stores and driving
                                  the next 12 months, with 56% citing online sales        Infor’s Robert McKee agrees: “Today,             sales. Everyone is still learning.
                                  as the biggest growth area for their business. Any   Facebook is a community – a very successful         Deputy chairman, Walpole
                                  reservations that luxury brands had about selling    community – but luxury fashion companies
                                  their collections online have disappeared, with      have the ability to create their own communities.
                                  100% of respondents unconcerned about their          Brand loyalty in mainstream fashion is very much    Do you have a presence on any of the following?
                                  products being sold on a stockist’s website rather   ‘easy come, easy go’, but luxury fashion enjoys
                                  than a bricks-and-mortar store.                      a prestige factor that is not afforded to the
                                                                                                                                            Twitter 	                                         97.1%
                                     Martin Newman, chief executive of ecommerce       mainstream. Whether it’s brand loyalty or
                                  consultancy Practicology, says these figures are     conspicuous consumption, the merchandise
                                  encouraging and expects bigger growth for the        is sought-after. This brand loyalty represents       Facebook 	                                     94.3%
                                  luxury sector from online sales. “The [businesses]   a group of people with like interests – or – a
                                  who take that leap are the ones that link their      community. Luxury companies need to begin            Pinterest 	                57.1%		
                                  multichannel functions, and I’d say department       building their own online social communities
                                  stores [have a better chance] because they have a    around this brand loyalty. Listen to your            Instagram 	    37.1%
                                  broader product proposition,” he says.               communities. From colour palettes to silhouettes,
                                     Mark Henderson, chairman of the London            your community has an opinion and they’re            Google+ 	      37.1%		
                                  Luxury Quarter and non-executive chairman of         anxious to share that with you.”
                                  British tailor Gieves & Hawkes, says click-and-         Most businesses – 97.1% – use social media
                                  collect is a “phenomenal” opportunity for luxury     for brand awareness, which topped the list
                                  brands: “The majority of luxury purchases are        above marketing in second place, customer
                                  pre-considered and that is an enormous               service in third place and sales ranked last.
                                  opportunity for luxury retailers, certainly             It is encouraging to see that 68.6% of
                                  the [‘collect’] opportunity because shopping         respondents have a daily presence on social
                                  is an experience of temptation.”                     media, with 8.6% using different platforms
                                     Luxury brands have embraced social media          “more than 10 times a day”. With the purpose
                                  – 97.1% are on Twitter; 94.3% on Facebook;           of social media being instant and regular
                                  57.1% on Pinterest and 37.1% on both Instagram       engagement with customers, a strong presence
                                  and Google+. Brands and indies need to step up       on these sites is a must.
Sponsored by




     Do you expect your online business
     to grow in the next 12 months?
                                                                                        Does selling your         Yes
     No 	
     Yes	
                                     6.6%
                                    93.4%
                                                                                        collections via a
                                                                                        stockist’s website       0%
     (by 1%–10%) 	                  39.5%                                               rather than a bricks-
     (by 11%–25% ) 	                  25%                                               and-mortar store
     (by 26%–50%) 	                 10.5%
                                                                                                                           %
                                                                                                                         00
                                                                                        concern you?
     (by more than 50%) 	           15.8%                                                                          No
     Not applicable 	                2.6%
                                                                                                                        1




  40%                                     27%
                                          of indies have a
  of department                           daily presence on
  stores have a daily                     the main social
  presence on                             media channels
  the main social
  media channels



                            48%
  82%
  of multiples have
                            of brands have
                            a daily presence
  a daily presence          on the main social
  on the main social        media channels
  media channels




How active are you on the main social media sites?

More than 10 times a day	      8.6%
Daily 	                       68.6%
Several times a week 	         5.7%
Weekly	                        8.6% 	
Several times a month 	          0%
Monthly	                       5.7%
Less often 	                   2.8%




                                                                                                                Do you have any
                                                                                                                of the following?
                                  What do you use the main social media channels for?                           An app	                  41.2%
                                                                                                                A mobile-	               76.5%
                                                                                                                optimised site
                                  Sales                            Brand awareness
                                                                                                                Use of QR codes 	       35.3%

                                  45.7%                            97.1%
                                  Customer service                 Marketing                                               9%
                                  62.9%                            77.1%                                             of indies have an app,
                                                                                                                     mobile-optimised site
                                                                                                                       and use QR codes
Brands expect
                       online sales to
                       be the biggest
                       growth driver
                       next year

36%
of multiples believe
the economy will
pick up from 2014                 Are you confident about
onwards, while 15%                business over the next 12 months?
believe the economy
will pick up at the               Not at all. 	                    0%
end of next year                  I am worried my
                                  business might fail 	

                                  Not really. I think 	          13.6%
                                  it’s going to be tough	                                                   Outside London,
                                                                                                            which are the other
                                  I think things will 	          23.7%                                      hot spots in the UK?
                                  remain the same	
                                                                                                            Manchester
                                  I am quite confident 	         30.5%                                      Liverpool
                                  trade will begin to pick up	                                              Birmingham
                                                                                                            Leeds
                                  I am confident my 	            27.1%                                      Oxford
                                  business will grow	                                                       Cambridge
                                                                                                            Bicester Village
                                  Very. Things are 	              5.1%
                                  going really well	




                                                                                                  When do you believe the
                                                                                                  economy will start to pick up?

                                                                                                  Start of 2013	               14.8%

                                                                                                  End of 2013	                 18.5%

                                                                                                  Not until 2014	              25.9%

                                                                                                  Not until 2015	              25.9%

                                                                                                  Not until 2018	              14.9%


International
                                                                         What is the biggest growth
and online                                                                area of your business?
expansion

                                                                         55.6%
                                                                                  Online
are two of
the most
popular areas
of growth for

                                                                         27.8%
                                                                               International
multiples



                                                                         38.9%
                                                                               Sales in store
future prospects I luxury report
                                                                                                                                                        Sponsored by




                                           Great
                     expectations
        While few expect the economic gloom to lift in the near future, many in the
          luxury sector are optimistic that their business will continue to grow




                                                                                                                                                                       Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 39
                                                      Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES




D
                       espite respondents’ earlier          Henderson cites Harrods as a great example        side by side. The future looks pretty good. I am
                       comments that they expect         of the type of business that will lead growth in     hugely optimistic.”
                       turnover and profit to grow       the luxury sector. “We seem to have particularly
                       next year, 25.9% (the joint       good department stores in this country. Harrods      For Infor’s Robert McKee, the success of the
                       highest percentage) do not        is an outstanding business, and [managing            luxury sector lies in its analysis of information.
                       expect the economy to pick        director] Michael Ward is a genius,” he says.        “At the core is business intelligence, pulling in
                       up until 2014, while the          “It’s a fabulous experience of temptation as         information from different sources. The luxury
same number think it will be even later – not until      you can move from one brand to another.              industry is much more right-brained, therefore
2015. Meanwhile, 18.5% believe there could be            Equally, walking into the Louis Vuitton store        it has a great deal of difficulty in intellectualising
some improvement by the end of next year, while          is not the same as walking into the Louis Vuitton    its business models. Luxury often makes money
the optimistic few – nearly 15% – think it could         concession. I think they [department stores          in spite of itself, because of its prestige, but the
be early in the new year.                                and own-brand stores] live incredibly comfortably    luxury sector has huge potential, even beyond
   Over the next 12 months, 30.5% are “quite                                                                  its current results; it needs to be more technology-
confident” that trade will pick up, with 27.1%                                                                attuned,” he explains. “Too much emphasis is
“confident” that their business will grow. Nearly          / Industry View /                                  put on high margins rather than efficient business
a quarter believe trading will remain the same,            ‘Long-term prospects                               practices. History is littered with luxury apparel
while 13.6% predict “it’s going to be tough”. The
majority – 55.6% – believe growth next year will
                                                           are extremely good’                                companies that forgot to run an efficient business.
                                                                                                              Let’s not forget that when all the glamour is
be driven by online sales.                                 Guy Salter                                         stripped away, you still have a business to run.
                                                                                                              If you have to flatten growth, it doesn’t mean
The Bain report estimates that the luxury                  Forecasts for continued growth in luxury are       you have to flatten profits. You should be
goods market will grow by 4% to 6% from 2013               positive across all markets and categories, but    able to control your profitability with better
to 2015, pushing the sector to between €240bn              the next 12 months could be challenging, and       operating efficiencies.”
(£192.3bn) and €250bn (£200.3bn) by 2015.                  sales increases are likely to be more modest           While luxury businesses do have reason to be
    Mark Henderson, chairman of the London                 than in recent years. Ongoing uncertainty in       optimistic, the industry is likely to experience
Luxury Quarter and non-executive chairman of               the eurozone, the muted outlook for the UK         a readjustment. Recent profit warnings and
Gieves & Hawkes, believes the luxury sector will           economy and concerns about China’s                 slowdown in markets such as China mean that
continue to grow “because people want the best”.           slowdown could have a short-term impact.           companies will need to work harder to find
    He adds: “Tourism is growing, and London’s             However, long-term prospects look good. I’m        pockets of growth. There may be a short-term
reputation is growing. The trend at the moment             as excited as I have ever been about the future.   slowdown, or even short-term losses, but
is towards craftsmanship and individualism,                Deputy chairman, Walpole                           businesses that understand their brand’s values
which supports the luxury sector’s values.”                                                                   and adapt to a changing market will prosper.

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The Current Outlook of the Luxury Fashion Market

  • 1. The Compiled by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES Luxury Report SPONSORED BY
  • 2. Introduction I Luxury report Sponsored by ‘We ask how the luxury market is faring and what the future holds’ _ Ana Santi T he fashion industry has had market? We decided to find out by launching its fair share of ups and Drapers’ first in-depth report into the sector. downs since the global In September, we compiled a survey and asked recession of 2008, but for businesses in the luxury fashion market – including the luxury fashion sector, boutiques, brands, etailers, department stores, the ‘downs’ have been few multiples and agents – to tell us how they’re faring and far between. The today and their expectations for the future. Over the mainstream market looked on with envy as next 14 pages, we analyse these findings across profits in the luxury sector soared and huge, different business segments, from ecommerce and shiny flagships opened as quickly as those in the social media to tourism, international retailing and Drapers / November 17 2012 _ 25 mid-market closed. distribution and buying strategies. Luxury fashion seemed invincible, but then Further in-depth analysis also comes from Burberry posted a profit warning in September. Guy Salter, deputy chairman of Walpole, the Warning bells began to ring as China – the darling membership group for the British luxury industry, of growth for luxury – saw growth in its economy whose insights help to interpret our findings. slow. So what does this mean for the UK luxury Ana Santi, deputy editor, Drapers ‘It’s vital to know your customers and how they identify with you’ _ Robert McKee I nfor is proud to sponsor Drapers’ By its very nature, couture will remain the Luxury Report. In the constantly seductress for luxury fashion. Much of luxury evolving world of fashion fashion still manufactures many of its own it is essential to know your customers products but, as their product lines have evolved, and understand how they identify many are now sourcing globally. with you. Brand identity must be Infor is no stranger to the luxury goods market. ingrained in the entire production Our first luxury goods customer was signed in process, from initial design to shop-floor delivery 1992 and they are still with us today. For more to meet the ever-demanding expectations of than 18 years, we have helped more than 1,100 luxury consumers. fashion companies in 194 countries improve Luxury was founded with the model ‘seduce their processes to become more efficient and the customer, control the supply chain’. While this competitive. But why do four of the top 10 luxury model is still intact today, we find that many in the fashion companies use us? Because we luxury sector have found success using a model understand every business’s individual needs and that relies on ‘listen-react-respond to the tailor our products accordingly. customer and collaborate with the supply chain’. Robert McKee, director, fashion industry strategy, Infor
  • 3. luxury report I the current outlook Luxury S ince the global recession of 2008, one sector of the fashion industry has appeared, perhaps unsurprisingly, to weather the storm. While the mid-market lifestyle began to witness plummeting sales and business closures, the luxury sector boomed. But then, this September, UK luxury fashion bellwether Burberry posted a profit warning. Admittedly, investors breathed a sigh of relief this month, as Burberry reported an 8% increase in revenues for the first half, but pre-tax profits dropped almost 30% due to a one-off payment to end its fragrance and Drapers finds out how the luxury fashion sector beauty licence. Yet last month, global consultancy Bain & is faring and its expectations for the future Company released its annual Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study showing a slowdown in luxury goods sales. According to the report, Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES the value of the total luxury goods market is expected to rise by 5% at constant exchange rates to €212bn (£170bn) this year, compared Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 26 with an increase of 13% last year. In the same week, LVMH – the largest luxury goods group by sales – said organic sales growth in the third quarter had fallen to 6%, compared Was your turnover with 15% growth in the same period last year. for 2011 up or Mulberry soon followed, also posting a profit down on 2010? warning, which took almost one third off its market value. Down 14.9% On average, by how much did Up turnover increase? 85.1% 23.2% On average, how much did your profits increase? Was your profit for 2011 up or down on 2010? Down 22.6% 18.5% If you have bricks-and-mortar stores, how many do you expect to have by the end of 2013? 6.3% 60.9% 32.8% Up 77.4% Same More Fewer 100% of department stores said turnover was up in 2011 against 2010
  • 4. Sponsored by So, should the luxury sector in the UK be In terms of investment in 2012, 54.1% worried? Our survey found a healthy industry, of respondents (the highest percentage) / Industry View / confident of further growth in the next year. invested in their staff, with 51.4% also ‘Luxury ecommerce But few businesses were complacent. There was an air of caution, with the majority not investing in digital marketing and the same figure investing in new products and brands. will continue to grow’ expecting the economy to pick up until the Digital marketing topped the investment list Guy Salter end of 2014. for brands. For multiple retailers, staff and While that overview paints a good picture of digital marketing were most important, while It seems counterintuitive to those outside the the state of the overall luxury fashion market in department stores ploughed money into staff, industry that the luxury sector has experienced the UK, the most interesting nuggets lie in the new brands and digital marketing. strong growth despite the challenging details of our survey. Some 85.1% of economic environment. This resilience hasn’t respondents said their turnover was up in 2011 Looking ahead, 92% and 89% of businesses surprised me but the level of performance has. against 2010 and 77.4% echoed the sentiment expect turnover and profits to rise respectively Conditions have worsened recently, so we in terms of profits. Splitting this down further, over the next year. Luxury brands forecast must be ready for a tougher ride but I remain department stores and pure-play etailers turnover to increase by an average of 27%, sure our business model is well suited to came out on top, with 100% of respondents while indies expect a 15% rise. continue to benefit from the type and pattern in each segment recording a rise in turnover Optimism is clearly in the air and, over of affluent spending. over the same period. For brands, the number the next few pages, we look at how luxury The luxury department stores and the pure- was 90% and for indies it was 73%. On businesses hope to fulfil these ambitions. play luxury etailers have held up particularly average, turnover increased by 23.2% and well. Those department stores who strain every profit by 18.5% across all segments. sinew to keep maximum freshness, product Luca Solca, senior luxury goods analyst at Do you expect profits to rise next year? variety, exceptional in-store experience and investment company Exane BNP Paribas, Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 27 service will remain appealing to the luxury is not surprised that independent boutiques, consumer and international tourists. which had a good year nonetheless, didn’t It’s good to see that businesses have fare as well as department stores and brands continued to invest in their online presence and last year. “Brands are integrating their Yes digital marketing, although it would have been 89% distribution more and more, particularly shortsighted not to do so, as luxury brands’ with mono-brand stores. The traditional ability to produce high-quality content gives independent has less of a role to play and them an advantage. Luxury ecommerce will they find it harder to finance their businesses,” continue to grow for those that offer a truly No 11% he explains. “And department stores are integrated customer experience. Few are now. performing more of a selection function. Look Simple things like user experience, navigation at Liberty – it has come up with an interesting and checkout could be much improved. selection of brands and products, with nicher Deputy chairman, Walpole brands and designers to offer consumers something different. Luxury consumers are What did you invest in this year? keen to find novelty. They’re paying more attention to their spend, to differentiation New EPoS system Opening stores and distinction.” The average increase in profit 16.2% 27% of multiples was Do you expect turnover to rise next year? 28% Digital marketing M-commerce Yes 51.4% 16.2% 92% Union Pay Personal / VIP shopping Indies expect turnover to rise 16.2% 27% by an average of 15% in the next year Interiors / shopfit Staff 48.6% 54.1% Mandarin speakers CRM systems No 8% 16.2% 29.7% New products / brands Paying down debt 51.4% 27%
  • 5. luxury report I going global Sponsored by Do you sell internationally? No 18.2% Yes 81.8% If you sell internationally is it via: A website 85.7% A licensing agreement 17.9% An agent 14.3% Own international stores 7.9% Multi-brand retailer 10.7% What percentage of your business is from international sales? Less than 10% 37% 10%-20% 18.5% 21%-30% 7.4% 31%-40% 7.4% 41%-50% 3.7% 51%-60% 11.2% 61%-70% 7.4% 71%-80% 7.4% 81%-90% 0% Drapers / NOVEMBER 17 2012 _ 28 91%-100% 0% What percentage of your sales in the UK come from tourists? 41%-50% More 5% than 50% 10% Less than 10% 31%-40% 10% 30% 40% of department stores 21%-30% 5% sell internationally via their website 10%-20% 40%
  • 6. International exchange Luxury businesses are looking overseas for growth Drapers / NOVEMBER 17 2012 _ 29 Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES W 32% hen Burberry merchandise making its way into all the markets posted its profit globally. Are luxury brands doing all they can warning in of indies sell to combat this dilution to both brand equity and September, the internationally revenue? It would seem that a key to combatting brand blamed via their website luxury counterfeiting comes through the use of in part the technology to verify product pedigree. From 44% slowdown in the serialisation to the use of embedded RFID Chinese economy. Bain & Company’s annual [radio-frequency identification] through the report also attributed the decline in growth of of respondents entire supply chain – from concept to consumer the luxury goods market to Chinese consumers said Western – the products and all their components have spending less at home and giving fewer gifts. Europe is their to be traceable throughout the value chain.” best-performing Clearly, luxury businesses have been relying Of those who sell to international markets, international market heavily on thriving international markets, 85.7% do so via a website. Other methods such 100% notably China, to drive overall growth. as licensing agreements, via multi-brand stores In the UK, according to our survey’s and own stores, remain relatively low, with respondents, international sales will continue less than 20% of respondents choosing to be important to overall growth, but these of multiples sell each model, thereby highlighting potential internationally; 82% businesses have far from saturated their sales via a website; 36% new sales channels. opportunities abroad. Although 81.8% of via their own bricks- respondents sell to international markets, and-mortar stores Drilling into these numbers, we found 37% of businesses (the highest percentage) that 57% of brands and all multiple retailers said less than 10% of their turnover comes from sell to international markets, and 32% of indies international sales, with 18.5% (the second do so. Andrew Robb, chief operating officer at highest percentage) claiming international sales Farfetch.com, which facilitates independent make up between 10% and 20% of turnover. retailers’ online businesses, says 32% is actually “The luxury sector has seen solid growth in quite high. “It’s really difficult for independents economically emerging Asia with the rapid to sell online internationally because they have evolution of the Chinese and other economies,” to deal with the complexities of pricing, returns says Robert McKee, director, fashion industry and marketing,” he explains. “To be both a great strategy at Infor. “The recent slowing in the rate online and offline retailer you need to invest, but of that rapid economic evolution will have an most boutiques are small. Matches and Browns obvious impact on that rate of growth – but it have put serious online teams in place and doesn’t have to impact profitability. Of equal investment. But if you don’t have an online concern has to be the dilution of luxury brand channel, you’ll suffer. The boutiques that do it equity stemming from counterfeit luxury well will be fewer [in the future]. It comes down u
  • 7. luxury report I going global to the owners having a passion and intuitive understanding of the online space, and in particular, online marketing. You need massive international appeal.” In terms of specific international territories, Western Europe gets the top spot, with 44% of 46% respondents saying it was their best-performing Which are your best-performing market. The US topped the list for 36% of international markets? businesses. Other territories were more balanced, with 28% placing China fourth in the rankings, of respondents said the majority of tourists come from China while Western Europe the same percentage putting Brazil in fifth place 18% of multiples said this 31% said Western Europe was the was their number one market while 36% said Australia was their eighth second biggest tourist group best-performing market. Looking ahead, 60% of businesses expect the above mix to change over the next five years. What is interesting from the results is the way that different territories will, on the whole, be on a more level playing field. For example, Western Europe is still predicted to be the number one second biggest tourist group. Further down the make shopping a priority when travelling. international market for the respondents, but only list, 23% said Russians were at number six and Products are becoming more diversified and 30%, rather than 44%, believe so. There could be 46% said Brazilians were ranked seventh. the demand for high-end, luxury products Drapers / NOVEMBER 17 2012 _ 30 two reasons for this. Either the respondents are “Non-EU international spend in the UK has and tailor-made services is increasing among simply unsure or, as growth in emerging markets shown continual growth year on year – with China international shoppers. Due to the tax refund slows, businesses are more reluctant to put all leading this growth, reporting spend increases policy and exchange rate, many European luxury their eggs in one Chinese basket and are, instead, of 29% year on year between January and products are estimated to be up to 20% to 30% spreading themselves across territories depending September,” says Richard Brown, vice-president lower than in their home nations, and often on their business type and those territories’ of tax-free shopping operator Global Blue UK. overseas tourists will still choose to buy an item different demographics. Having said that, 53% “Europe is seen as the world’s leading destination from London, even if it is available in their home of respondents said China is having the biggest for luxury shopping, especially among those who country, so that they are able to talk about buying impact on the global fashion industry, followed it from a famous London store.” (far behind) by the US at 13%. China also leads the way in tourism – 40% of / Industry View / Brown adds that China and the Middle businesses said between 10% and 20% of their ‘Luxury attracts East remain the top international spenders, sales in the UK come from tourists, with 46% of representing 54% of all international non-EU businesses ranking the Chinese top of their tourist a global clientele’ spend. “Chinese spend has seen steady year-on- table. 31% said Western Europeans were their Guy Salter year increases. However, it is the Middle Eastern nations who have seen the most substantial I am surprised that of the businesses surveyed, increases – 50% year on year in September, 40% of them noted that only 10% to 20% of with some individual transactions exceeding China the country their UK sales came from tourists and that 37% said international sales made up less than 10% £1m,” says Brown. He believes that the top international of their turnover. I would expect those figures spenders are unlikely to change dramatically impacting most on the global to be higher, with tourists and international in the next few years, but adds that Global Blue fashion sector sales accounting for a much bigger percentage has seen significant increases in spend from at the moment of overall sales of the UK luxury businesses Nigerian and Indonesian visitors. “These two surveyed. But a factor in this could be the countries, which account for only 9% of the 30% different trading patterns experienced in total non-EU spend, have shown enormous 2012 with the Jubilee and the Olympics. year-on-year growth in September compared of brands Luxury is a global business attracting with last year – Indonesia at 54% and Nigeria said they a global clientele. Perhaps some UK luxury at 32%,” says Brown. “For Nigerians, London didn’t expect more sales brands need to work harder to become more has become a top shopping destination, with to come from commercial and more relevant in certain many visiting to purchase UK items cheaper tourists in key overseas markets. Likewise all brands are than imported and sold in their native Lagos, the next year now looking seriously at how to get better and Nigerian men particularly enjoy getting at attracting and selling to affluent visitors. suited and booted in UK designer brands. I am not surprised that the Chinese are “Nigeria is forecast to become Africa’s biggest ranked top of the tourist table and we economy by next year. Meanwhile, Indonesia is are working closely with the Government only in the 15 top international spenders in the to help further increase Chinese visitor UK, and only 1% of the population are able to numbers to the UK. travel for holiday or business reasons, but their Deputy chairman, Walpole September average monthly sales are comparable to China and the Middle East.”
  • 8. Sponsored by What percentage of your total turnover 55% comes from wholesale? What percentage of your turnover do you expect wholesale to contribute over the next five years? 39.5% “The wholesale model does not have enough margin. Only a few established wholesalers will survive – those who are able to review their business and approach to consumers, including investments in e-business, to become more internationally known,” said one respondent Doing it for themselves With sales from wholesale divisions expected to continue to decline over the next five years, brands in the luxury sector are turning their attention to retail Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES
  • 9. 19% of brands are producing more collections than 46% 27% a year ago of respondents said of respondents said womenswear accessories sales were sales were up between 10% and up between 10% and 20% 20% compared with a year ago compared with last year 50% of footwear sales were up between 1% and 10% compared with a year ago O ver the past few years, brands are taking steps to manage their own Hudson Walker International. “Nobody used we’ve seen many luxury distribution. But brands have to be prepared to talk heavily about sales [in the luxury sector] brands report stronger to invest more capital back into their business to but brands are developing much more aggressive sales from their retail, finance directly-operated stores, for example.” business models with underlying sales ethics. It’s rather than wholesale, He also expects fewer independent boutiques a very sales-driven environment now with more divisions and, as a result, to enter the market. “The more sophisticated commercially-oriented roles.” have focused their efforts boutiques will become masters of selection, on growing the former. The luxury brands in a smaller scale to department stores.” As for buying strategies among retailers, surveyed said 55% of sales come from their This shift is also affecting the skillset among forward order remains the norm, representing wholesale channel but, over the next five years, luxury professionals, says Mathew Dixon, 62% of total budget. But in the next year, this they expect wholesale to make up less than director at luxury recruitment consultancy is expected to contribute to more than half of half of total turnover – 39.5%. Respondents buyers’ budgets – 53%. Respondents listed explained the reason for this predicted change, the following as their best-selling brands (in no with one saying “the wholesale model does not / Industry View / particular order): Vivienne Westwood, J Brand, have enough margin”. Another added: “The ‘Wholesale is Equipment, Isabel Marant, Alexander McQueen, wholesale segment is falling down. Only a few established wholesalers will survive, those who tougher than ever’ Stella McCartney, Diane von Furstenberg, Louis Vuitton, Rick Owens and By Malene Birger. are able to review their business and approach Guy Salter Looking at specific markets, sales were to consumers, including investments in generally up on a year ago for the majority e-business, to become more internationally Wholesale will always be with us but it is of respondents – 89% – across womenswear, known.” One respondent simply said this is tougher than ever. It’s not just the squeeze menswear, kidswear, accessories, footwear and now the “rule of thumb”. on margins but the lack of control. There is a lingerie. Only 10% of respondents said sales trend towards getting out of accounts that are were down in womenswear, kidswear, footwear As investment firm Exane BNP paribas’ either too accessible or don’t present the right and lingerie, with menswear and accessories Luca Solca says: “If wholesale isn’t dead, then it’s environment for luxury, even if that means showing a clean sheet. 25% of respondents severely damaged.” Solca explains that industry- taking a short-term hit on revenues. said menswear sales were up between 10% wide, deep discounting over the past few years The strength of menswear and accessories and 20%. Meanwhile, 50% said footwear has led brands with a traditional wholesale model isn’t a surprise and in my view is based on sales had increased between 0% and 10%, to become more protective and take more control underlying strong fundamentals. and 46% said womenswear sales had risen of all elements of their business, from pricing, Deputy chairman, Walpole by between 10% and 20%, while 27% said to marketing and distribution. “The strongest accessories had seen the same increase. u
  • 10. luxury report I buying & distribution 60% of etailers’ budgets go on forward order Forward order is expected to make up Manufacturing case study Honey Clothing 53% of total buying Mahbub Ullah, accounts manager Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 34 budget in the next 12 months Customers high-end brands are motivated high street London-based Christopher Kane, making some of their brands and designers. manufacturers are Paul Smith, Preen, lines here in the UK Consumers are competing with Roland Mouret and we are benefiting. more aware of where established I think the luxury their clothes are being manufacturers from As a Sedex-certified sector has traded made and they are France and Italy. [an ethical and better than the rest willing to pay extra if Established British responsible supply of the fashion market made well in an ethical designers are also chain standards body] [in the economic working environment choosing to bring back premium outerwear downturn]. in this country. their production from manufacturer, trading The British Fashion We’re experiencing continental Europe to is relatively sound Council has better demand for high- this country. As long as and improving every organised London quality pure wool, and we can keep up the year. More and more Fashion Week in recent specialised leather is quality, the demand British designers and years, which has growing each year. will grow further. Manufacturing case study Johnstons of Elgin James Dracup, group managing director Customers Burberry, which affected our China, which, although Next year I expect Chanel, Hermès customers. slowing down, will continued growth Trading is tough. A A slowdown in developing markets continue to grow. Both private-label with private-label couture and luxury 46% of womenswear sales were mild winter in 2011 left is also affecting our supply to global brands, and a more up between 10% and 20% our customers with global luxury clients. brands and the effective sales effort compared with a year ago too much inventory in The luxury sector development of from our own 50% our product categories has traded better than our own-brand offer company in the resulting in small the wider market, with independent Scottish tourist market, orders for 2012. The however, it has slowed wholesale customers the wider market and of footwear sales were Olympics, weather in terms of growth and via our own retail particularly the US. up between 0.1% and 10% compared with last year and a less competitive potential compared has driven growth. We intend to grow currency in relation to with two years ago. Menswear is our export sales from the eurozone all impacted on tourist Opportunity still exists in markets such as particularly strong as is the local Scottish the current 25% turnover to more 27% of respondents said travel in August 2012, Brazil, India, Russia and tourist market. than 30%. accessories sales were up 10%-20% on last year
  • 11. Sponsored by How is your buying budget split? Forward order 61.67% Closer to and in-season Manufacturing case study 16.88% Harris Tweed Malcolm Campbell, sales Resort / pre-collections and marketing director 16.88% for the Carloway Mill Customers Brooks Brothers, Chanel, Saks House brands 51.67% Trading is currently very good. We are sampling well for autumn 13, and our top-end customers appreciate the marketing and images we have Own brands created to promote the history and provenance 40.83% of Harris Tweed. We believe the luxury sector has traded well because clients seek quality and products that last. Price deflation over the past 20 years has created a disposable product, which is 58% no longer acceptable. Our customers want a product that is robust and fit for purpose, and they are prepared to pay for it. Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 35 of respondents said menswear We have also developed two new finishes sales were up between 0% and working with WT Johnson textile finishers of 10% while 25% said they were up between 10% and 20% Huddersfield. The new finishes and creative colours and designs will drive sales. Demand in the UK luxury sector is less strong than in other countries such as Japan, the US and Europe, probably because the UK high street brands over the years have driven the price of Harris Tweed down, so it does not reflect the artisan processes of carding, What is your spinning, hand-loom weaving and finishing best-selling brand? that the luxury market tends to respect, appreciate and pay for. Alexander McQueen By Malene Birger Diane von Furstenberg Equipment Isabel Marant J Brand Manufacturing case study Louis Vuitton Rick Owens Alfred Brown Stella McCartney Ian Brown, joint managing director Vivienne Westwood Customers hold up better than strong, especially Aquascutum, Jaeger, the middle market. slightly bolder colours. Paul Smith Fabric woven in Next year, I expect Britain is still strong traditional English Trade is very good. and this plays into fabrics, with a modern We think people the luxury market. twist, to drive sales. are buying less but The biggest driver I think the Jubilee spending more on is the fact that all our and Olympics have individual items, fabrics are woven in given us a belief in which is helpful to Britain and some of ourselves as a nation us, because being this sentiment is and this encouraged a European weaver beginning to show the demand for British we will always be at in the womenswear manufacturing and the luxury end. market, which is goods. We have had a In difficult growing for us. good year and we will economic climates, Our biggest market be pleased if we can the luxury and bottom though is menswear – maintain this growth ends of the market semi-plain fabrics are in the year to come.
  • 12. luxury report I social media The move to What proportion of your business is online? multichannel None 15.8% 0.1%–20% 32.9% 21%–40% 22.4% 41%–60% 14.5% 61%–80% 6.6% 100% 7.8% Investing in online, particularly social media platforms, is key for retailers’ growth in the luxury sector Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES W ith digital their game though, with only 57% of brands marketing listed and 45% of indies on Twitter. 57% of brands / Industry View / high among the have a Facebook page, while 41% of indies do so. ‘It’s a powerful way Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 36 different areas of business that Newman believes social media offers the to build consumers’ respondents biggest opportunities to brands “because they Guy Salter invested in for have a stronger relationship with the end 2012, it comes as no surprise that the internet, consumer, it’s about how you leverage social Social is a hugely influential communications and social media in particular, are crucial to the media and create a community,” he says. “I channel. A lot of luxury brands are reticent growth of the luxury sector. question the traction of Google+, but if a brand about engaging with their consumers via social Almost 33% said up to a fifth of their business isn’t on Pinterest, it’s missing out. Pinterest media, as it can be difficult to retain control. But comes from online sales, while 22% said online seems to have the highest level of engagement if harnessed in the right way, it is a powerful and sales account for between 21% and 40% of where the engagement is very product-focused. effective way to build a brand’s consumer base, turnover. More than 90% expect online sales to Facebook is harder – people are engaging with generating customer engagement and loyalty, account for even more of their total turnover in friends and family on it.” attracting visitors to online stores and driving the next 12 months, with 56% citing online sales Infor’s Robert McKee agrees: “Today, sales. Everyone is still learning. as the biggest growth area for their business. Any Facebook is a community – a very successful Deputy chairman, Walpole reservations that luxury brands had about selling community – but luxury fashion companies their collections online have disappeared, with have the ability to create their own communities. 100% of respondents unconcerned about their Brand loyalty in mainstream fashion is very much Do you have a presence on any of the following? products being sold on a stockist’s website rather ‘easy come, easy go’, but luxury fashion enjoys than a bricks-and-mortar store. a prestige factor that is not afforded to the Twitter 97.1% Martin Newman, chief executive of ecommerce mainstream. Whether it’s brand loyalty or consultancy Practicology, says these figures are conspicuous consumption, the merchandise encouraging and expects bigger growth for the is sought-after. This brand loyalty represents Facebook 94.3% luxury sector from online sales. “The [businesses] a group of people with like interests – or – a who take that leap are the ones that link their community. Luxury companies need to begin Pinterest 57.1% multichannel functions, and I’d say department building their own online social communities stores [have a better chance] because they have a around this brand loyalty. Listen to your Instagram 37.1% broader product proposition,” he says. communities. From colour palettes to silhouettes, Mark Henderson, chairman of the London your community has an opinion and they’re Google+ 37.1% Luxury Quarter and non-executive chairman of anxious to share that with you.” British tailor Gieves & Hawkes, says click-and- Most businesses – 97.1% – use social media collect is a “phenomenal” opportunity for luxury for brand awareness, which topped the list brands: “The majority of luxury purchases are above marketing in second place, customer pre-considered and that is an enormous service in third place and sales ranked last. opportunity for luxury retailers, certainly It is encouraging to see that 68.6% of the [‘collect’] opportunity because shopping respondents have a daily presence on social is an experience of temptation.” media, with 8.6% using different platforms Luxury brands have embraced social media “more than 10 times a day”. With the purpose – 97.1% are on Twitter; 94.3% on Facebook; of social media being instant and regular 57.1% on Pinterest and 37.1% on both Instagram engagement with customers, a strong presence and Google+. Brands and indies need to step up on these sites is a must.
  • 13. Sponsored by Do you expect your online business to grow in the next 12 months? Does selling your Yes No Yes 6.6% 93.4% collections via a stockist’s website 0% (by 1%–10%) 39.5% rather than a bricks- (by 11%–25% ) 25% and-mortar store (by 26%–50%) 10.5% % 00 concern you? (by more than 50%) 15.8% No Not applicable 2.6% 1 40% 27% of indies have a of department daily presence on stores have a daily the main social presence on media channels the main social media channels 48% 82% of multiples have of brands have a daily presence a daily presence on the main social on the main social media channels media channels How active are you on the main social media sites? More than 10 times a day 8.6% Daily 68.6% Several times a week 5.7% Weekly 8.6% Several times a month 0% Monthly 5.7% Less often 2.8% Do you have any of the following? What do you use the main social media channels for? An app 41.2% A mobile- 76.5% optimised site Sales Brand awareness Use of QR codes 35.3% 45.7% 97.1% Customer service Marketing 9% 62.9% 77.1% of indies have an app, mobile-optimised site and use QR codes
  • 14. Brands expect online sales to be the biggest growth driver next year 36% of multiples believe the economy will pick up from 2014 Are you confident about onwards, while 15% business over the next 12 months? believe the economy will pick up at the Not at all. 0% end of next year I am worried my business might fail Not really. I think 13.6% it’s going to be tough Outside London, which are the other I think things will 23.7% hot spots in the UK? remain the same Manchester I am quite confident 30.5% Liverpool trade will begin to pick up Birmingham Leeds I am confident my 27.1% Oxford business will grow Cambridge Bicester Village Very. Things are 5.1% going really well When do you believe the economy will start to pick up? Start of 2013 14.8% End of 2013 18.5% Not until 2014 25.9% Not until 2015 25.9% Not until 2018 14.9% International What is the biggest growth and online area of your business? expansion 55.6% Online are two of the most popular areas of growth for 27.8% International multiples 38.9% Sales in store
  • 15. future prospects I luxury report Sponsored by Great expectations While few expect the economic gloom to lift in the near future, many in the luxury sector are optimistic that their business will continue to grow Drapers / november 17 2012 _ 39 Words by ANA SANTI Illustrations by NATHALIE LEES D espite respondents’ earlier Henderson cites Harrods as a great example side by side. The future looks pretty good. I am comments that they expect of the type of business that will lead growth in hugely optimistic.” turnover and profit to grow the luxury sector. “We seem to have particularly next year, 25.9% (the joint good department stores in this country. Harrods For Infor’s Robert McKee, the success of the highest percentage) do not is an outstanding business, and [managing luxury sector lies in its analysis of information. expect the economy to pick director] Michael Ward is a genius,” he says. “At the core is business intelligence, pulling in up until 2014, while the “It’s a fabulous experience of temptation as information from different sources. The luxury same number think it will be even later – not until you can move from one brand to another. industry is much more right-brained, therefore 2015. Meanwhile, 18.5% believe there could be Equally, walking into the Louis Vuitton store it has a great deal of difficulty in intellectualising some improvement by the end of next year, while is not the same as walking into the Louis Vuitton its business models. Luxury often makes money the optimistic few – nearly 15% – think it could concession. I think they [department stores in spite of itself, because of its prestige, but the be early in the new year. and own-brand stores] live incredibly comfortably luxury sector has huge potential, even beyond Over the next 12 months, 30.5% are “quite its current results; it needs to be more technology- confident” that trade will pick up, with 27.1% attuned,” he explains. “Too much emphasis is “confident” that their business will grow. Nearly / Industry View / put on high margins rather than efficient business a quarter believe trading will remain the same, ‘Long-term prospects practices. History is littered with luxury apparel while 13.6% predict “it’s going to be tough”. The majority – 55.6% – believe growth next year will are extremely good’ companies that forgot to run an efficient business. Let’s not forget that when all the glamour is be driven by online sales. Guy Salter stripped away, you still have a business to run. If you have to flatten growth, it doesn’t mean The Bain report estimates that the luxury Forecasts for continued growth in luxury are you have to flatten profits. You should be goods market will grow by 4% to 6% from 2013 positive across all markets and categories, but able to control your profitability with better to 2015, pushing the sector to between €240bn the next 12 months could be challenging, and operating efficiencies.” (£192.3bn) and €250bn (£200.3bn) by 2015. sales increases are likely to be more modest While luxury businesses do have reason to be Mark Henderson, chairman of the London than in recent years. Ongoing uncertainty in optimistic, the industry is likely to experience Luxury Quarter and non-executive chairman of the eurozone, the muted outlook for the UK a readjustment. Recent profit warnings and Gieves & Hawkes, believes the luxury sector will economy and concerns about China’s slowdown in markets such as China mean that continue to grow “because people want the best”. slowdown could have a short-term impact. companies will need to work harder to find He adds: “Tourism is growing, and London’s However, long-term prospects look good. I’m pockets of growth. There may be a short-term reputation is growing. The trend at the moment as excited as I have ever been about the future. slowdown, or even short-term losses, but is towards craftsmanship and individualism, Deputy chairman, Walpole businesses that understand their brand’s values which supports the luxury sector’s values.” and adapt to a changing market will prosper.