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Actuarial Report Summary for City of San Angelo
1.
Actuarial Report as
of September 30, 2012 A Presentation to the City of San Angelo by Jason Martin, FCAS, MAAA March 2013 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.
2.
Limitations on Analysis
These results are intended for the internal use of the City of San Angelo. Judgments about the findings contained in this presentation should be made only after reviewing our report titled “Actuarial Analysis of Self-Insured Programs as of September 30, 2012” in its entirety. It should be noted that due to the inherent uncertainty in the projection of future events, actual losses could vary, perhaps materially, from the estimates contained herein. towerswatson.com © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
3.
Table of Contents
Self-insured Program Background Actuarial Report Objectives/Scope Actuarial Report Findings Variability of Estimates towerswatson.com 2 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
4.
City of San
Angelo Self-Insurance Program Background Self-insurance program inception: January 1, 1988 for Workers Compensation (WC) October 1, 1987 for Automobile and Liability Current self-insured retentions/deductibles: Coverage Self-Insured Retentions/Deductibles Workers Compensation $500,000 General Liability & Auto Liability Unlimited - No Excess Insurance* Law Enforcement & Public Officials $500,000 $25,000 Vehicles/Equipment Property $10,000 Other Property * Subject to Texas Tort Claims Act limits of $250,000/$500,000 Bodily Injury and $100,000 Property Damage towerswatson.com 3 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
5.
City of San
Angelo Actuarial Report Objective/Scope of Actuarial Report Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE) as of 9/30/2012 Forecasted loss and ALAE for 10/1/2012 to 9/30/2013 Surplus analysis of self-insured funds Analysis performed for each self-insured coverage Estimates reflect self-insured retentions/deductibles towerswatson.com 4 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
6.
Actuarial Terminology
Loss and ALAE Components of a Claim Paid Amounts — Actual amounts paid to date Case Reserves — Current estimates of future payments on known claims Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) — Unpaid amounts for claims incurred but not yet reported — Additional development on case reserves for known claims — Actuarially determined amount Ultimate Loss & ALAE = Paid Amount + Case Reserves + IBNR towerswatson.com 5 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
7.
Unpaid Loss &
ALAE Unpaid Loss & ALAE as of September 30, 2012 Unpaid Estimates ($000s) Self-Insured Coverage Undiscounted Discounted Workers Compensation $1,501 $1,454 Liability & Property Automobile $312 $310 General Liability 515 511 Property 4 4 Total $832 $825 Total $2,332 $2,279 Note: Discounted estimates based on 0.6% annual rate of return as requested by the City towerswatson.com 6 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
8.
Reconciliation of Unpaid
Estimates Current Estimates Reconciled to Prior Estimates (Amounts in $000s) Workers Property & Reconciliation Total Compensation Liability Prior Unpaid Estimate as of 9/30/2011 $1,302 $474 $1,775 + New Losses from 10/1/2011 to 9/30/2012 615 503 1,118 + Ultimate Loss Estimate Change 171 (10) 161 - Payments from 10/1/2011 to 9/30/2012 587 136 722 = New Unpaid Estimate as of 9/30/2012 $1,501 $832 $2,332 Change in Unpaid Estimate $199 $358 $557 towerswatson.com 7 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
9.
Forecasted Loss &
ALAE Forecast for October 1, 2012 to September 30, 2013 Forecasts ($000s) Self-Insured Coverage Undiscounted Discounted Workers Compensation $629 $615 Liability & Property Automobile $135 $134 General Liability 327 322 Property 67 67 Total $529 $523 Total $1,158 $1,138 Note: Discounted estimates based on 0.6% annual rate of return as requested by the City towerswatson.com 8 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
10.
Estimates at Higher
Confidence Levels Discounted Estimates with Risk Margins as of September 30, 2012 (Amounts in $000s) Discounted Estimates Self-Insured Coverage at 75% CL at 90% CL Workers Compensation Unpaid Loss & ALAE as of September 30, 2012 $1,657 $1,879 Forecast Loss & ALAE for 10/1/2012-2013 701 796 Total Loss & ALAE $2,358 $2,675 Total Risk Margin $289 $606 Liability & Property Unpaid Loss & ALAE as of September 30, 2012 $940 $1,208 Forecast Loss & ALAE for 10/1/2012-2013 596 766 Total Loss & ALAE $1,537 $1,973 Total Risk Margin $189 $626 towerswatson.com 9 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
11.
Surplus Analysis
Workers Compensation & Property/Liability Funds as of September 30, 2012 (Amounts in $000s) Workers Property/ Compensation Liability Benchmark Fund Fund Ratios Surplus Estimate Fund Assets at 9/30/2012 $1,603 $2,024 Unpaid Estimates - Discounted $1,454 $825 Estimated Surplus $150 $1,199 Surplus Ratios Unpaid Estimate / Surplus 9.71 0.69 < 3.0 Loss Forecast / Surplus 4.20 0.44 < 3.0 Surplus / Maximum $500K Retention 0.30 2.40 5.0 to 20.0 towerswatson.com 10 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
12.
Workers Compensation -
Loss Cost (Per $100 of Payroll) Increasing trend since 2003 Significant variability in loss costs by year 2007 & 2010 due to impact of large losses towerswatson.com 11 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
13.
General Liability -
Loss Cost (Per $1000 of Expenditures) Loss cost variability primarily due to impact of large losses Large losses in 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2012 2013 based on long-term average of loss costs trended to current levels towerswatson.com 12 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
14.
Auto Liability -
Loss Cost (Per Vehicle) Loss cost variability primarily due to impact of large losses $279,000 loss in 2012; 45% of losses from 3 claims in 2007 and 2010 2013 based on long-term average of loss costs trended to current levels towerswatson.com 13 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
15.
Variability of Estimates
Variability of estimates is expected due to: Low number of claims Impact of large losses “Long-tailed” lines of business Difficult to predict with certainty the course and outcome of future events Influenced by external factors — Jury verdicts, legislative changes, public attitude, inflation, changes in medical conditions Influenced by internal factors — Case reserving accuracy, claim settlement speed, retention level, risk/quality control Potential variability of the City’s Unpaid Estimate at 9/30/2012 One additional $500,000 claim could increase: — Workers Compensation unpaid loss estimate of $1.5 million by 33% — Liability & Property unpaid loss estimate of $0.83 million by 60% towerswatson.com 14 © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only.
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