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The real-nominal principle
Price Indexing and the GDP Deflator
“Apples and Oranges”
• Price is often used as a proxy for market value.
• The problem with this is that prices change over time.
• This means that a dollar in 1997 may not have the same
value as a dollar in 2007.
• Thus, we have to be clear about what how we look at dollar
and product values:
• In nominal terms, we make refer to the price as
expressed in current dollars (i.e. the stated price).
• In real terms, we take into account the purchasing power
of those dollars.
On the comparability of GDP data (and monetary data in general).
Price Indexing
• The simple way to do this:
• Pick a base year.
• Weigh the goods from Year A and Year B by the prices
from the base year.
Making product values across years comparable.
∑ P x Q
A A
∑ P x Q
B B
Nominal GDP
in Year A
=
Nominal GDP
in Year B
=
∑ P x Q
B A
∑ P x Q
B B
Year A GDP in
Year B Dollars
=
Year B GDP in
Year B Dollars
=
Price Indexing
• The simple way to do this:
• Pick a base year.
• Weigh the goods from Year A and Year B by the prices
from the base year.
Making product values across years comparable.
∑ P x Q
A A
∑ P x Q
B B
Nominal GDP
in Year A
=
Nominal GDP
in Year B
=
∑ P x Q
B A
∑ P x Q
B B
Year A GDP in
Year B Dollars
=
Year B GDP in
Year B Dollars
=
REAL
(Comparable!)
NOMINAL
(Not Comparable!)
A Numerical ExampleComputing Nominal and Real GDP
2005 2006
Price Qty Price Qty
Food $5 30 $3 35
Clothing $16 10 $20 8
Housing $500 1 $550 2
Price Indexing II
• The obvious problem with fixed-weight indices is that “real”
percent changes (i.e. growth rates) from one year to
another are sensitive to the choice of the base year.
• One way to overcome this is to use chain weights to
compute growth rates.
• An example of this is the procedure used by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA), which simply takes the geometric
average:
Fixed vs. Chain-weight procedures
Chain-Weighted
Growth Rate
=
Growth Rate if
Prior Year is Base Year√ Growth Rate if
Current Year is Base
x
Again...An illustration of chain-weighting.
2005 2006
Price Qty Price Qty
Food $5 30 $3 35
Clothing $16 10 $20 8
Housing $500 1 $550 2
The GDP DeflatorAnother useful macroeconomic statistic
GDP Deflator =
Nominal GDP
Real GDP
*It is a “deflator” because it tells us by how much we have to divide
Nominal GDP to get the equivalent Real GDP for a given year.
Comparing GDPGDP as a measure of an economy’s size.
COUNTRY GDP ($ BN)
USA 13,770.31
Japan 4,302.09
Germany 3,080.55
China 3,051.24
UK 2,660.66
France 2,401.44
Italy 1,993.72
Spain 1,359.91
Canada 1,266.40
Brazil 1,177.71
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
Database.
COMPANY REVENUES ($ BN)
Wal-Mart 351.14
Exxon-Mobil 347.25
R. D. Shell 318.85
BP 274.31
GM 207.35
Toyota 204.75
Chevron 200.57
DaimlerChrysler 190.19
ConocoPhillips 172.45
Total 168.36
Source: Fortune 500 World’s Largest
Companies.
GDP and its Limitations
• It does not account for all productive activity in the
economy.
• It ignores other equally valid components of social welfare.
• It does not necessarily represent “desirable” economic
activity.
• It does not capture all the costs of economic activity.
• It offers no indication of how the “wealth” is distributed.
Remember: GDP is only an imperfect measure at best.

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Real vs. Nominal GDP

  • 1. The real-nominal principle Price Indexing and the GDP Deflator
  • 2. “Apples and Oranges” • Price is often used as a proxy for market value. • The problem with this is that prices change over time. • This means that a dollar in 1997 may not have the same value as a dollar in 2007. • Thus, we have to be clear about what how we look at dollar and product values: • In nominal terms, we make refer to the price as expressed in current dollars (i.e. the stated price). • In real terms, we take into account the purchasing power of those dollars. On the comparability of GDP data (and monetary data in general).
  • 3. Price Indexing • The simple way to do this: • Pick a base year. • Weigh the goods from Year A and Year B by the prices from the base year. Making product values across years comparable. ∑ P x Q A A ∑ P x Q B B Nominal GDP in Year A = Nominal GDP in Year B = ∑ P x Q B A ∑ P x Q B B Year A GDP in Year B Dollars = Year B GDP in Year B Dollars =
  • 4. Price Indexing • The simple way to do this: • Pick a base year. • Weigh the goods from Year A and Year B by the prices from the base year. Making product values across years comparable. ∑ P x Q A A ∑ P x Q B B Nominal GDP in Year A = Nominal GDP in Year B = ∑ P x Q B A ∑ P x Q B B Year A GDP in Year B Dollars = Year B GDP in Year B Dollars = REAL (Comparable!) NOMINAL (Not Comparable!)
  • 5. A Numerical ExampleComputing Nominal and Real GDP 2005 2006 Price Qty Price Qty Food $5 30 $3 35 Clothing $16 10 $20 8 Housing $500 1 $550 2
  • 6. Price Indexing II • The obvious problem with fixed-weight indices is that “real” percent changes (i.e. growth rates) from one year to another are sensitive to the choice of the base year. • One way to overcome this is to use chain weights to compute growth rates. • An example of this is the procedure used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which simply takes the geometric average: Fixed vs. Chain-weight procedures Chain-Weighted Growth Rate = Growth Rate if Prior Year is Base Year√ Growth Rate if Current Year is Base x
  • 7. Again...An illustration of chain-weighting. 2005 2006 Price Qty Price Qty Food $5 30 $3 35 Clothing $16 10 $20 8 Housing $500 1 $550 2
  • 8. The GDP DeflatorAnother useful macroeconomic statistic GDP Deflator = Nominal GDP Real GDP *It is a “deflator” because it tells us by how much we have to divide Nominal GDP to get the equivalent Real GDP for a given year.
  • 9. Comparing GDPGDP as a measure of an economy’s size. COUNTRY GDP ($ BN) USA 13,770.31 Japan 4,302.09 Germany 3,080.55 China 3,051.24 UK 2,660.66 France 2,401.44 Italy 1,993.72 Spain 1,359.91 Canada 1,266.40 Brazil 1,177.71 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database. COMPANY REVENUES ($ BN) Wal-Mart 351.14 Exxon-Mobil 347.25 R. D. Shell 318.85 BP 274.31 GM 207.35 Toyota 204.75 Chevron 200.57 DaimlerChrysler 190.19 ConocoPhillips 172.45 Total 168.36 Source: Fortune 500 World’s Largest Companies.
  • 10. GDP and its Limitations • It does not account for all productive activity in the economy. • It ignores other equally valid components of social welfare. • It does not necessarily represent “desirable” economic activity. • It does not capture all the costs of economic activity. • It offers no indication of how the “wealth” is distributed. Remember: GDP is only an imperfect measure at best.