World Bank Massive Open Online Course Digital Artifact for "Turn down the heat: Why a 4 degree warmer world must be avoided." Focus is on the role of forests and forest based products in a low carbon economy. Only with long-term, landscape level thinking can the forest-baed ecosystems and rich biodiversity found within be protected for future generations and effectively help to keep the world from heating up 4 degrees by 2100.

1. Impacts of Climate Change for
the Forest Products Industry
By Susan Brunner
February 19, 2014
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2. Global Context
Sustainable forest
management plays a
vital role in mitigating
climate change risks and
reducing societal green
house gas emissions.
It is essential to meet
future fibre demand and
to conserve ecosystems
& biodiversity.
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3. What are ecosystem services?
FOOD
FRESH WATER
WOOD AND FIBRE
FUEL
CLIMATE
FLOOD
DISEASE
WATER PURIFICATION
AESTHETIC
SPIRITUAL
EDUCATIONAL
RECREATIONAL
NUTRIENT CYCLING
SOIL FORMATION
PRIMARY PRODUCTION
e.g. photosynthesis
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4. The Ecosystem Landscape
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5. Forests
Facts
Trends
• Forest cover 1/3 of the world‘s
land surface
• Sustainable forest management &
wood procurement programs
continue to grow
• Carbon stocks are
• Planted forests tend to be more
productive than natural forests;
thereby better able to meet rising
demand
• Net forest area continues to
due to ongoing deforestation
• Planted forest area is growing
rapidly
• Approx. 10% of the global forests
are certified
• Forest cover stable in top
producing countries;
deforestation -primarily due to
land conversion for agriculture - is
still rampant in some parts of the
world.
Sources: wbcsd Forest Solutions, September 2012; UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2010-2011
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6. Forest Products / Paper
Facts
• Nearly 42% of the global wood
harvest for industrial purposes is
used to make paper.
• Export ratio of 25%-30% of global
wood products and paper
manufacturing output from the
country of origin
• Harvesting of industrial roundwood
has been stable despite increasing
production of paper products
due to increasing usage
of recovered fibre
Source: wbcsd Forest solutions, September 2012; * source: CEPI Key Statistics 2011, p21.
Trends
• There is increased competition
for forest biomass, particularly
for energy production
• Global production and use of
recovered paper has been
increasing drastically in last
two decades
• European paper recycling rate
of 70.4% in 2011*
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7. Energy & Climate Change
Facts
• The world’s forests and forest
soils currently store more than
one trillion tonnes of carbon –
twice the amount found free in
the atmosphere*
• Energy consumption by the FP
industry = ca. 1.5 – 2% of
global final energy use
• Approx. 50% of energy needs
by FP industry are supplied by
biomass and it leads in using
combined heat & power
Trends
• Net removals of carbon from
the atmosphere attributable to
carbon storage in forest
products are significant
• There is improving energy
efficiency in the FP sector and
recycling rates continue to
increase
• Energy needed to produce a
metric ton of paper is 10-20%
lower compared to 1990+
+Source: wbcsd forest solutions, September 2012; *Source: FAO = Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
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8. Consequences for business?
Businesses impact on ecosystems and
ecosystem services
Ecosystem change creates
business risks and opportunities
Businesses rely and depend on ecosystems
and ecosystem services
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9. Consequences for business?
€ 1.35 trillion / year:
minimum estimate of natural capital loss,
just from deforestation

Approx total GDP of UK or France in 2010
Ecosystem change creates
business risks and opportunities
US$ 190 billion / year:
contribution of insect pollination to
agriculture output
Approx. 8 times Walmart’s 2010
total operating income
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10. Biodiversity
80%
terrestrial
biodiversity found in forests
Severe consequences of deforestation
due to climate change include: GHG
emissions, biodiversity loss and soil
erosion, spread of diseases and more.
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11. Water scarcity
Just 1% of the earth‘s water is fresh water.
Supply
More extreme droughts & floods in a 4o C
warmer world expected
Demand
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12. Water scarcity
In a 2oC warmer world estimated
sea level rise is roughly 79 cm above
1980-99 levels.
In a 4oC scenario sea levels will rise
nearly 1m by 2100, further
endangering fresh water acquifers
and inland sources of fresh water
Source: MOOC Turn Down the Heat, World Bank, 2014
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13. Impacts of a 4oC warmer world on forests
 Major heat and extreme weather events (drought/flooding)
 More frequent extreme heat waves could result in yield
losses and forest fires, which in turn release the carbon
stored in the trees.
 Ecosystems climate and water regulation, erosion
prevention, and forest disease control services
endangered
 20 – 30% of plant and animal species are like to be at
increased risk of extinction if global average temperatures
increase more than 2-3oC above pre-industrial levels
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14. For the sceptics….
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
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