Presentation hold by Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development, Imperial College London, as part of the first panel of the 30th edition of the Brussels Briefing on “Agricultural resilience in the face of crisis and shocks", organized by CTA in collaboration with the ACP Secretariat, the EC/DEVCO, Concord, and IFPRI on 4th March 2013.
More on: http://brusselsbriefings.net/
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience- 1. Sir Gordon Conway: What we know and what we need to know
1. Brussels Briefing n. 30
Agricultural Resilience in the Face of Crises and Shocks
4th March 2013
http://brusselsbriefings.net
Agricultural resilience -- what do we know and
what do we need to know
Sir Gordon Conway, Imperial College London
2. Agricultural resilience -- what do we
know and what do we need to know
Sir Gordon Conway,
Professor of International
Development
Agriculture for Impact,
Imperial College, London
European Economic and
Social Committee,
Brussels,
March 4, 2013
3.
4. Rising
sea and land
temperatures
Three Drivers:
Tropical convection
The Monsoons
El Niño – La Niña Oscillation
5. El Niño La Niña
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
6. Gradual build-up of adverse
events
• Pest and disease attack
• Land degradation
• Growing pollution
• Increasing temperatures
• Rising sea levels
• Greater or lesser rainfall
• Growing indebtedness
11. Russia
Severe heatwave in 2010
Doubled Moscow’s death
rate
30% of grain crops lost to burning
Pakistan
Worst floods in 80 years
Killed over 1600 people
Submerged 1/5th of the country, including
14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land
12.
13. Increased yields or production
On the same amount of land
With less water
Less fertilisers
Less pesticides
Lower emissions
of Greenhouse Gases
Increased natural capital
and environmental services
Greater resilience
14.
15. Use ecological principles to
design agricultural practices
e.g.
Agroforestry
Integrated Pest
Management
Organic farming
16.
17. Plants more nutritious
carbohydrate and protein
micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)
Plants more resilient to
pests and diseases
climate change
Plants more efficient at
converting sunlight to food
taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere
using water
18.
19. $500 million losses
a year in Uganda
Academia Sinica
provided sweet
potato gene
Successfully
transferred to
bananas
In Ugandan field
trials
Entirely
government funded
20. Genes from Bacterial
RNA that help to repair
misfolded proteins
resulting from stress
Plants rapidly recover
No yield penalty when
stress free
In African field trials
21.
22. National trade
Rural Economy
Seed Co
Connectivity Fertiliser
Co
Local
trader Agrodealer
Farm Household in the
local community
Banks for
Regional trade microcredit
Model of Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA)
23.
24. Increasingly frequent and severe
droughts, floods, and storms
Fertile lowlands good crops but
can be destroyed during flood
Highlands good crops of maize
and cassava during flood years,
but less productive otherwise
Eduardo Mondlane
http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adaptiv...
25.
26.
27.
28. Thank You
Conway, G. ‘One Billion Hungry: Can we feed
the world?’
www.canwefeedtheworld.org
Follow us on twitter: #1billionhungry
For more info on Ag4Impact, go to:
www.ag4impact.org
Contact:
g.conway@imperial.ac.uk
Notas del editor
The answer is YES CAN because I am an Optimist BUT it is a qualified yes IT IS A TALL ORDER
AFRICAN AGRICULTURE IS ALREADY SUFFERINGI WAS IN NORTHERN GHANA A YEAR AGO – THE RAINS CAME A MONTH EARLY AND STOPPED A MONTH EARLY
EVEN MORE SERIOUS IS THE EFFECT OF EXTREME EVENTSJAMES HANSEN HAS SHOWN THAT OVER THE PAST 60 YEARS MEAN TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ACCOMPANIED BY MORE FREQUENT HEAT WAVES
THESE EXTREMES TRIGGERED THE FOOD PRICE SPIKE OF 2010WE WERE AIMING FOR 2 DEGREES C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVEL. MORE LIKELY TO BE 4 DEGREES – THIS COULD BE CATASTROPHICTHE EXTREMES ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN MORE FREQUENT AND SEVERE
SO WHAT DO WE DO – INVEST IN APPROPRIATE INNOVATIONWE INNOVATE – NEW CROP VARIETIES AND LIVESTOCK BREED AND NEW WAYS OF GROWING AND HUSBANDING THEM THAT WILL HELP FEED THE WORLD BY 2050THE GREEN REVOLUTION TAUGHT US THE POWER OF INNOVATIONIT WAS ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS OF THE 21ST CENTURYBUT THERE WERE LIMITATIONSFOCUSED ON IDEAL ENVIRONMENTSOVER-RELIANT ON SYNTHETIC PESTICDES AND FERTILISERSONLY SOME OF THE POOR BENEFITEDPASSED AFRICA BY
THE CHALLENGE FOR INNOVATION IS THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION
FERTILISERS ARE EXPENSIVE AND PRODUCE GHGSTHERE ARE SIMPLE SOLUTIONSPUT FERTILISER IN TOP OF SODA BOTTLE AND PLACE IN PLANTING HOLEBETTER YIELDS WITH LESS FERTILISER.EXAMPLE OF PRECISION FAMRING
THE ALTERNATIVE OR COMPLEMENTARY APPROACH IS TO FOCUS ON MODERN PLANT BREEDING BUILD WHAT FARMERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT NEEDS INTO THE SEEDTASKS ARE FORMIDABLE – BUT ACHIEVABLE
IN AFRICA, A THIRD OF PRESCHOOL-AGED CHILDREN ARE VITAMIN A DEFICIENT. MANY GO BLIND; MANY DIE.THE CRITICAL TIME IS WHEN A CHILD IS BEING WEANED. MOTHERS OFTEN USE RICE GRUEL OR MASHED UP SWEET POTATO. THIS PROVIDES CARBOHYDRATE AND SOME PROTEIN BUT LITTLE OR NO VITAMIN AOFSP HAS BEEN CONVENTIONALLY BRED TO CONTAIN HIGH QUANTITIES OF BETA-CAROTENE – THE PRECURSOR OF VITAMIN A. IN UGANDA AND MOZAMBIQUE INTAKE DOUBLED WHEN FARMERS RECEIVED THE VINES AND GREW THEM.SOMETIMES THOUGH AS IN THE RICE GRAIN THE GENES ARE NOT PRESENT. HERE GENES HAVE BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM MAIZE TO PRODUCE GOLDEN RICE
IN SOME CASES WE WILL NEED NEW GENETICALLY MODIFIED VARIETIES
NO AMOUNT OF INNOVATION OR TECHNOLOGY WILL WORK WITHOUT GOOD MARKETSTHEY HAVE TO BE EFFICIENT, ACCESSIBLE AND FAIR
THIS IS A SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION
APPROPRIATE INNOVATION AND FAIR AND EFFICIENT MARKETS ARE ESSENTIALBUT SUCCESS DEPENDS ON PEOPLE TO DRIVE AND EMBRACE THE CHANGES