USC Demographer Dowell Myers presents a demographic forecast for the multifamily industry at MFE2009

1. Demand and Demographics with Dowell Myers

3. Market Boom and Bust

5. Minority Dictatorship of New Construction Everyone else lives in existing housing 1% of households (growing segments) dictate type of new construction

6. Shiller’s 120 Year View of House Prices

7. Closer View of Prices in 1970 to 2020

8. Case-Shiller Prices by Metro Area

9. How Flexible is Demand?

10. Demand = Consumption Rates X Number of People of Each Type

11. Household Formation by Age & Decade

12. Home Ownership by Age & Decade

13. Home Ownership by Age & Decade

14. Paradox of Ownership Trends and Price Age 25-34 1980s 1990s

15. The Two Drivers: Aging and Immigration

16. Demographic Growth Native-Born Turning Age 25 Plus Immigrant Arrivals Myers and Pitkin ‘09

19. …… ?

20. 56 million still kicking in 2030 Dowell Myers 2009

21. Population Growth in the US (Age 25+) by Major Segment Each Decade Source: Statistical Abstract 2003, Tables No. 12 and HS-3. Myers ‘09

22. Age Group Increase as Percent of US Population at End of Each Decade The Baby Boomers Surge Forward

23. Percent of U.S. Population Newly Immigrated in Preceding 10 Years Homer Hoyt 1940 Predicted urban decline

25. Soaring Immigrant Homeownership For Each Immigrant Wave Arriving Before 1970, 80, 90, 2000 United States Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research , September 2005 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 All Native- born All Foreign- born 1960s Arrivals 1970s Arrivals 1980s Arrivals 1990s Arrivals

26. Change in Homeownership For Successive Waves of Immigrants Arriving Before 1970, 1980, 1990, or 2000 NY 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 TX 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research , September 2005 IL 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 CA 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 FL 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 70 80 90 00 0.8

27. Turning Points in Cities and Housing

29. Apartment Trend and Outlook

30. Century of Multifamily Construction Shares

31. place holder Price series Share of Housing Construction in Apartments

32. Age Profile of Tenants in Recently Built Apartments

33. Baby Bust Hits Young Adult Age Growth at Ages 25-34 as a Percent of US Population

34. Myers and Gearin 2001 based on NAHB data Expressed Preference for a Townhouse in the City

35. The Baby Boomer Sell-Off

36. Source: Myers (2007) Immigrants and Boomers , Figure 11.1 Buyers and Sellers per 100 Population Age Per 100 People of Each Age in California Buy Sell Average Annual Rates of Buying and Selling

37. Seniors (65+) Per 100 Working Age +67% after 2010 Growing Weight of Seniors Compared to Working Age

38. Annual Net Selling Rate at Age 65-69 Source: Dowell Myers and SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble,” Journal of the American Planning Association (winter 2008) Myers and Ryu ‘08

39. Will Supply Cut Back? Annual Home Sales in Millions

40. Myers and Pitkin ‘08 Annual Growth in Homeowners by Age Group

42. Need for Bulking Up the Younger Generation 67% Heavier Senior Ratio of Home Sellers

43. Solution: Bulk them up with education… Everyone a College Grad … and a Home Buyer

45. The Intergenerational Social Contract Investing in Future Workers & Home Buyers Children Educational Investments Seniors Rewarded Pensions Health Care Home Sales $$ $$ $$ Dowell Myers University of Southern California Replacement Supporters New Workers New Home Buyers New Taxpayers Mature Adults Make Maximum Financial Contributions $$ the cycle of roles

46. Conclusions for the Future

49. Thank You Dowell Myers <dowell@usc.edu> For more information search for “popdynamics”