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European Energy Challenges
Colette Lewiner

Paris – May 11th, 2012




                             | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
An overview of the European energy markets



 Recent events are impacting the energy markets
  • Middle-East political tensions
  • Fukushima accident consequences
  • Economic downturn
 Present and future energy mix is evolving
  • Renewables
  • Gas
  • Energy mix costs
 Sustainability questions
  • EU 2020 objectives
  • Demand Response
 Smart grids
 Conclusion




                                                        | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                    2
The rising political tensions in Iran are particularly worrying
                                                           for global oil supply
                                                                                                                                                                     Italy
 After China, the EU is the largest importer of Iranian oil                                                    Iran’s oil exports (Jan to June 2011)
  (about 20%)                                                         % of each                                                                                              13%
 In response to the Iran’s nuclear program negotiations              country’s total                                                           7%
                                                                      oil imports                                                   Others              Other EU
  failure, the US and Europe decided sanctions against Iran,          Jan to June 2011                                                                                       Spain
  who, in return, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz:                                                                         12%                  5%
                                                                      China                                                                                    6%                  13%
   • Strengthening of the US military presence in the Gulf
   • Oil embargo from the EU (due to start in July) which should             11%
     hit 450,000 to 550,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil exports                                                                             Total                                Japan
                                                                                                                                          Iranian oil
 But Iran banned crude oil supply to France, the UK and              South Africa                                       22%                exports                 14%
                                                                                                                                                                                      10%
  the EU right away                                                                                                                          2.3 m
 In addition, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India could                         25%                                                         bl/d
  reduce their purchases (up to 250,000 bl/d). In total,




                                                                                                                                                                                          Source: Financial Times
  between 25% and 35% of Iran’s oil exports could be                                                                                                                      India
                                                                      Turkey                                                                                  13%
  impacted                                                                                                                     4%                                               11%
 However, Saudi Arabia is increasing significantly its                                                         51%                 7%
  production to curb price                                                                                                                     10%
                                                                                                                                                                    South Korea
   Average daily oil flow
                                                                                                                                                                          10%
   through the Strait of
      Hormuz (2011)                                   14 crude oil tankers

                                                                                                                     Primary factors driving demand are
                                                      Almost 17 million barrels       Source: Financial Times          economic growth and increased
                                                          35%            20%
                                                                                                                    requirements in the developing world
                                                                                                                  Iran political situations may place global
                                                    of all seaborne   of oil traded
                                                                                                                    production and transportation at risk
                                                    traded oil        worldwide

                                                                                                                               | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                                                    3
Oil prices in European currencies are at their highest

 Oil prices forecasts uncertainty is increased by                                 In Euros, the crude oil spot price is at its highest
  speculation: each barrel traded on the physical                                  There is currently a $20 spread between WTI and Brent,
  market is traded 35 times on the financial markets                                a the consequence of a localized logistic phenomenon
 There is some consumption/price elasticity                                        at Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is priced
 High present oil prices are linked to tensions in                                President Obama is supporting a new pipeline
  Middle East and Iran                                                              (Keystone XL)
                Oil prices                        Crude oil spot – Brent in US dollars and in Euros           Crude oil spot – Brent vs. WTI
                                                                                                                                                      130
                                                                                                                                                      123.04
                                                                                                                                        Brent
                                                                                                                                                      120


                                                                                                                                                      110

                                                                                                                                                      101.53

                                                                                                                                                      100
                                                                                                                                                WTI

                                                                                                                                                      90


                                                                                                                                                      80

                                                                                                                                                      70
                                                                                                       May 2011         Sept 2011   Jan 2012    Apr 2012
Source: Focus Gaz, February 17, 2012                                                                  Source: Ycharts
                                       Source: France inflation

                   High oil prices impact economic growth (EU’s oil import costs up 44% in 2011
                 compared to 2010 and net oil import bill estimated to account for 2.8% EU’s GDP in
                     2012 compared to 1.7% from 2000 to 2010) and trade exchanges balance
                                                                                                      | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                               4
Gas is not a global market.
                                                                         Very different regional pricing systems
                                           Gas spot prices                                                                                Gas prices evolution
                     50                                                                        100
                                                                                                                         In €/MWh ($4.4/MBtu=€10.6 /MWh)
                           DE - Import price   NL - TTF
                           BE - Zeebrugge      UK - NBP
                     40    DE - NCG            FR - PEG Nord                                   80                                 Long-term contracts price
                           Brent month ahead                                                                                      Spot price
Gas prices [€/MWh]




                     30                                                                        60




                                                                                                    Brent price [€/bl]
                     20                                                                        40


                     10                                                                        20


                      0                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                    Europe versus US gas prices

Source: Gas Exchanges web sites, SG Commodities Research, BMWI – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13


             US spot prices could go up on the mid-term triggered by the new EPA
              (Environment Protection Agency) regulation on air pollution (Cross State Air
              Pollution Rule) that could lead to 20% of US coal-fired plants phase-out and their
              replacement by gas
             Beginning of 2012, Gazprom has agreed to reduce by 10% the price of its
              long-term contracts to Europe

                          US spot gas prices are only one third of long-term
                                European gas prices. For how long?
                                                                                                   Source: Focus Gaz January 2012

                                                                                                                               | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                           5
Post-Fukushima nuclear reactors’ market: new builds mainly
                                                     in Asia, Russia and Middle East
 Worldwide, 435 reactors are in operation, 62 under construction and 489 planned or proposed
    (April 2012, World Nuclear Association)
                                                                   Overview of existing nuclear plants and project capacities (as of April 2012)
 The final number of planned or proposed                                            0          50,000        100,000         150,000           200,000           250,000
  reactors is difficult to assess. However, two                            China                                                                                       MWe
  points are clear:                                                          USA
                                                                          Russia
      • Provided reactors are run safely, the consequences                  India
         of the Fukushima accident should be less                          Japan
                                                                          France
         important than viewed just after the accident
                                                                    South Korea
      • The proportion of new, safer “Generation 3               United Kingdom
         reactor” builds will increase                                   Ukraine
                                                                        Canada
   It is worthwhile mentioning that:                                      UAE                                                      Operable
                                                                    Saudi Arabia                                                    Under construction
      • In the US:                                                     Germany
                                                                     South Africa                                                   Planned
          TVA has decided to complete Bellefonte 1 reactor
                                                                        Vietnam                                                     Proposed
          The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has certified the            Turkey
            design of Westinghouse Electric Co.'s AP1000 reactor        Sweden
          Southern Company is building 2 new nuclear plants in            Spain
            Vogtle, Georgia                                              Finland
                                                                 Czech Republic
      • Finland announced a new build, the first                            Brazil
         announcement of a new site anywhere in the world Switzerland
       since the Fukushima accident                                                                                                     Source: World Nuclear Association

     • Russian Rosenergoatom has received a license for                        The vast majority of new constructions and
       building the Kaliningrad plant                                       existing plants in operation should continue with
     • No.1 nuclear unit in Zhejiang Sanmen (China) has                            some delays and more safety focus.
       restarted the infrastructure construction project                    The IEA* forecasts that nuclear output will rise by
     • Bulgaria has decided to build a 7th reactor at                             more than 70% over the period to 2035
       Kozloduy                                                            *IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011

                                                                                                              | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                             6
There is some elasticity between the economic situation and
                                                             the energy consumption
        EU electricity and gas consumption
                                                                  Evolution of electricity and gas consumption (M/M-12) non-weather-adjusted
              (non-weather-adjusted)
                                             +8%
                                                                 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
                                      -6%            -11%
                                  5,599 5,010 5,708
                                                  5,098                                Electricity
              +4.1% -2.7%                                                                                                                                     9%
      -4.7%                                                                            Gas                                                                   14%
             3,265                                                                                                         1%
   3,294 3,136                                                    -1%                          0%                0%
                  3,177
                                                                           -3%       -2%                                         -2%                  -3%
                                                                                                       -4%                              -5%
                                                                                                                 -2%                           -10%
                                                                                              -4%      -6%                 -4%
                                                                  -7%
                                                                                                                                                      -10%
                                                                                    -12%                                         -12%
                                                                           -16%                                                         -14%
           Electricity                      Gas
                  2008      2009      2010      2011                                                                                           -22%
                                                                    Source: SG Energy Pulse – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13
  Source: ENTSO-E, BP – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13


 In 2009, electricity and gas consumption dropped in Europe (-4.7% and -6.1% respectively) due to the crisis, in 2010,
  they increased again (+4.1% and +7.0%) thanks to the economic recovery and colder than average winter
  temperatures. Wholesale electricity and gas prices followed the same trend.
 In 2011, European electricity and gas consumption decreased respectively by 2.7%* and 10.7%**, mainly due to a
  mild weather. In France, electricity consumption decreased by 6.8% (weather-adjusted: +0.8%) and gas
  consumption by 13.4% (weather-adjusted: -1.9%).
      A second economic slowdown would impact negatively the energy consumption and prices
  * Société Générale Energy Pulse (Focus group representing 63% of European electricity consumption)
                                              **Eurogas

                                                                                                                     | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                   7
An overview of the European energy markets



 Recent events are impacting the energy markets
  • Middle-East political tensions
  • Fukushima accident consequences
  • Economic downturn
 Present and future energy mix is evolving
  • Renewables
  • Gas
  • Energy mix costs
 Sustainability questions
  • EU 2020 objectives
  • Demand Response
 Smart grids
 Conclusion




                                                       | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                   8
European energy mix evolution

                                                                         2010 and 2025 electricity mix (as of June 2011)
 Energy mix should evolve towards
                                                100%
  more gas, renewables and coal (in
  certain countries)                             90%



 Shale gas development is changing              80%

  the picture
 In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas              70%
                                                                                                                                                                Solar + Biomass
  share of primary energy consumption                                                                                                                           Wind
                                                 60%
  reaches 25% in 2035 at a global level                                                                                                                         Hydro
                                                                                                                                                                Other f ossil
  (more than coal, slightly less than oil)                                                                                                                      Gas
                                                 50%
  but leads to a +3.5°C global                                                                                                                                  Lignite + Coal

  temperature increase (compared to                                                                                                                             Nuclear
                                                 40%
  the +2°C objective)                                                                                                                                          2010 mix: lef t-
                                                                                                                                                               hand side bar
                                                 30%
 In 2011, the IEA** has examined a Low
                                                                                                                                                               2025 mix: right-
                                                                                                                                                               hand side bar

  Nuclear Scenario:                              20%

    • No new nuclear plant is built in OECD
      countries                                  10%

    • Non-OECD countries build only half of
      the projected nuclear plants                0%
                                                       BE    BG    CH    CZ    DE    ES     FI   FR    UK       HU   IT     LT   NL   PL   RO   SE   SI   SK
    • The operating lifespan of existing
                                                 Source: ENTSO-E – Capgemini analysis and estimations, EEMO13
      nuclear plants is limited to 45 years
 However, today’s nuclear energy                                                       The energy mix evolution could result in:
  development forecast is more                                                           • Higher costs (renewables development)
  optimistic                                                                          • Higher temperature increase (more fossil fuels)
   *GAS: Golden Age of Gas, International Energy Agency                                        • Lower energy independency
            **World Energy Outlook 2011, IEA

                                                                                                                          | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                                  9
Renewable energies have continued their quick development.
                                                       For how long?
 As of May 2011, 10% of the European                                                                                      Growth rate of renewable energy sources
  generation plants under construction                        110%               2008

                                                                                                              Solar PV                                             Top 3 countries ranked by:
  are from renewable energy sources (vs.                                                        Capacity     Growth (abs.) Growth (%)
                                                              100%                                                                                                Capacity installed*            Growth** (absolute)
  7% in 2009)                                                                                           DE            DE        SK
                                                                                                                                                                      1.           DE              1.           SK
 In 2011, despite a drop of the new EU                       90%
                                                                         2005
                                                                                                        IT            CZ        FR
                                                                                                                                                                      2.           ES              2.           FR
                                                                                                        CZ            FR        SI
  wind installed capacity due to the                                                                                                                                  3.           IT              3.           SI
  financial crisis and tougher regulations,                   80%                                2010
                                                                                                                                                                  * Volume for wind, small hydro, geothermal and solar PV

  wind power covered over 5% of EU’s
                                                                                                                                                                     in MW and for biogas and biomass in TWh
                                                                                                                                                                  ** Relative growth additionally displayed for solar PV and
                                                              70%                                                                                                    wind
  consumption (172 TWh)
 Many governments have or are launching


                                                 Growth (%)
                                                              60%
                                                                            2007        2009
  large offshore wind programs
   • September 2010: 300 MW offshore wind                     50%
                                                                          2006
     farm inaugurated in the UK                                                                                                                                                                          Wind
                                                              40%
   • France: part of the 3,000 MW tender                                                                                                                                         Capacity         Growth (abs.) Growth (%)
     awarded to 2 consortiums (one led by EDF                 30%
                                                                                                                                                                                            DE              ES                  RO
     for 1,400 MW and one led by Iberdrola for                                                                                                                                              ES              DE                  BG
                                                                                                                                                                                            IT              FR                  PL
     500 MW) in April 2012                                    20%                                                                              2005      2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2008               2009
   • North Sea: 400 MW (Germany) and 325
                                                                                                                                                                               2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010
                                                                                                                                              + Biomass
     MW (Belgium) under construction                          10%                                                                      2009

                                                                                                                                                 DE       PL
   • Nuclear phase out in Germany should                                                                                                         FI       SE
                                                               0%
     boost wind power but creates issues on                          0           10        20           30       40        50     60          70 SE 80    NL 90       100             110        120           130             140   150
     the grid
                                                                                                                                Electricity production (TWh)
 Despite the solar PV growth in 2011                         Source: Eur’Observer barometers – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13
  globally (+44%), many solar companies
  went bust because of China competition                                     A stable governmental policy is key for renewables
 In 2011, renewable energy investment
                                                                         development. The eurozone sovereign debt issues should
  rose 5% to US$260 billion* globally                                      lead to subsidies decreases and threaten the EU 2020
  (solar energy: +36%) Finance
     *Bloomberg New Energy
                                                                                           objective achievement
                                                                                                                                                | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10
The gas paradigm is changing

 In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas consumption is increased. Main                              World primary natural gas demand by
  assumptions are:                                                                                      sector and scenario
    • China ambitious policy for gas use
    • Increased power plants’ consumption linked to lower nuclear energy
    • Sustained low gas price
 However, in this scenario, heavy investments in infrastructure
  (difficult to finance) are needed
                Global unconventional natural gas resources (tcm)

                                                              SE: 1,148
                                              NO: 2,324

                                                              PL: 5,236
                                                                                       Source: World Energy Outlook 2011: Golden Age of Gas Report
                                        FR: 5,040

                                                                                                Shale gas changes the gas
                                                                                                           perspective:
                                                                                                  • It increases the total gas
                                                                                                    resources to 250 years of
                                                                                                            consumption
                                                                                                    • It is widely distributed
                                                                                              • It is cheap ($2/Mbtu in the US)
                                                                                                 • It allows to repatriate gas
                                                                                                     consuming industries as
                                                 Largest EU technically recoverable
                                    FR: 5,040
                                                 shale gas resources (bcm)                       chemicals and to fight against
 Source: EIA
                                                                                                         deindustrialization
     * GAS: Golden Age of Gas, IEA WEO 2011

                                                                                                 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                     11
Extensive analysis have been carried out on energy mix
                                                                           scenarios in France
   The Energies 2050 commission examined four existing energy scenarios:
       1. Lifespan extension of existing reactors: all existing nuclear reactors lifetime is extended to 60 years providing the nuclear safety
          authority (ASN) allows it
       2. Quicker adoption of 3rd generation nuclear reactors: replacement of all existing nuclear reactors by 3rd generation reactors (EPR) as
          soon as they reach their 40 years lifetime, which implies to build at least 2 EPR reactors per year during 10 years (from 2020 to 2030)
       3. Progressive reduction of nuclear energy in the mix: all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years
          lifetime and 1 on 2 reactors is replaced by a 3rd generation reactor (EPR), which leads to a 40-60% nuclear energy share by 2030
       4. a. Nuclear phase out (more fossil fuel energy): all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime
          and are replaced by fossil fueled plants
       4. b. Nuclear phase out (more RES): all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime and are
          replaced by renewable energy plants
                                                             Assumptions in the different scenarios by 2030
                              Electricity generation costs (€/MWh w/o taxes)         CO2 emissions   Employment               Energy security

ing nuclear reactors
                 1                                                                    ~25 MtCO2/y       Stable                      Stable
                                                                                                      Not able to
ion nuclear reactors
                 2                                                                    ~25 MtCO2/y
                                                                                                       measure
                                                                                                                                    Stable

                 3                                                                                   - 100,000 to      Energy sources diversification
ar energy in the mix                                                                 30-50 MtCO2/y
                                                                                                     150,000 jobs     but increase of fossil fuel imports
                  4a
e fossil fuel energy)                                                                ~120 MtCO2/y                       Increase of fossil fuel imports
                                                                                                     - 200,000 jobs
                4b
hase out (more RES)                                                                   ~45 MtCO2/y                     Potential issues on grid security

                        50      60        70         80         90       100   110
                  Source: Energies 2050, February 2012 – Capgemini analysis




                             Energies 2050 commission recommends extending nuclear reactors lifespan
                                                                                                                         | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                    12
An overview of the European energy markets



 Recent events are impacting the energy markets
  • Middle-East political tensions
  • Fukushima accident consequences
  • Economic downturn
 Present and future energy mix is evolving
  • Renewables
  • Gas
  • Energy mix costs
 Sustainability questions
  • EU 2020 objectives
  • Demand Response
 Smart grids
 Conclusion




                                                        | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                   13
Status on the EU 2020 objectives

 After the 2009 drop (-7.1%), GHG emissions increased
                                                                                                                         110                              EU-27 GHG emissions




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Source: BP statistical report 2011, European Environment Agency, Eur’Observer – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13
  by 2.2% due to the 2010 economic recovery. For 2011,                                                                                                                                   Historical evolution of GHG emissions




                                                                                   EU-27 GHG emissions [base year=100]
                                                                                                                         105                                                             Path to reach 2020 target

  88% ETS sector CO2 emissions released data show a                                                                                                                                      2020 target f or EU-27



  2.4%* decrease, mainly due to the combustion/power                                                                     100
  sector (-3.1%)
 An economic slowdown would push CO2 emissions                                                                           95

  down
                                                                                                                          90
 In its March 2011 Energy Efficiency plan, the EU
  estimated that with current measures only half of the                                                                   85
  objective would be attained and developed a new draft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -20%
  Directive focusing on:                                                                                                  80
                                                                                                                           1990   1995                 2000                   2005       2010                 2015               2020
    • Triggering better energy efficiency of public buildings
                                                                                                                 1,850                     EU-27 primary energy consumption
    • Demand response programs notably through smart meters
      roll out




                                                                EU-27 Primary energy consumption [Mtoe]
                                                                                                                 1,800

    • White Certificates mechanisms extension
                                                                                                                 1,750
    • Better usage of cogeneration
 In 2013, the EU will re-assess the situation                                                                   1,700

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -9%
                                                                                                                 1,650
    The present European Emissions Trading
     Scheme (ETS) needs to be amended to                                                                         1,600

    provide predictable and high enough CO2                                                                      1,550
                                                                                                                                   Historical evolution of primary energy consumption
                                                                                                                                   Path to reach 2020 target
                                                                                                                                   2020 target f or EU-27
    prices. The UK announced a carbon price                                                                                        Projection with current measures in place
                                                                                                                                   (as per the March 2011 EU Energy Ef f iciency Plan)
                                                                                                                 1,500
       floor to start in 2013 at £16/t of CO2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -20%
                                                                                                                 1,450
  *Deutsche Bank analysis, April 2012                                                                                1990         1995                  2000                   2005      2010                  2015              2020

                                                                                                                                                          | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          14
In certain countries as France, peak shaving is a key issue
                                                during cold weather
                                                               % peak shaving observed in various pilots worldwide
 Several means exist for
  peak shaving and energy                                                                                    % peak shaving
                                                                                                             Range of peak shaving
  savings, that can be
  combined or not:
  • Dynamic tariffs (that
    should be further
    developed with the mass
    roll-out of smart meters)
  • Automation such as smart
    thermostat, smart
    appliances, in-home
    displays or web-based
    consumer portal
  • Demand management
    programs such as
    customers alerts, social
    networks communication or
    feedbacks through bills,
    web, SMS, smart phones
                                Source: Capgemini Consulting


             Peak shaving: the use of displays helps but the customers’ behavior is key

                                                                                       | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                     15
In all developed countries, energy savings are key

                                                                                 % energy savings observed in various pilots worldwide
 Large-scale pilots
  operated for more than                                                                                                        % energy saving
  one year reach energy                                                                                                         Range of energy saving

  savings in the 2-6%
  range while more
  focused programs based
  on customer segmentation
  can reach up to 18%*
  energy savings
 In France, only one third
  of peak shaving electricity
  savings result in final
  electricity consumption
  reduction


     Prices increase and
     Time-of-Use tariffs
        should trigger
      sustained energy
       savings results
                                                Source: Capgemini Consulting
    *Literature review for the Energy Demand Research Project, Sarah Darby, Oxford University, 2010

                                                                                                          | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                         16
Demand response potential for EU-27 by 2020

                                                                                                                                                 Dynamic scenario:
 In Capgemini Consulting’s Demand Response                                           Demand Response study                               3.1    Savings in CO2 emissions (in Mt of CO2 1 )

  (DR) study*, the potential of peak shaving and                                       2012 results snapshot                            1.0 3%   Savings in electricity consumption (in equivalent
                                                                                                                                                 number of major cities2 and in % energy savings)
  energy savings is modeled on the basis of a
                                                                                5.2                                                      4 2%    Savings in peak generating capacities (in number
  baseline scenario:                                                           0.9 2%       4.3
                                                                                                                                                 of power plants3 and in % peak shaving)

  • GDP growth 2010-20: 1.8% in average                                                   0.8 1%
                                                                                                                                                 Moderate scenario:
                                                                                                                                                 Probable savings based on our observation of
  • CAGR electricity consumption 2010-20: 0.7%
                                                                                24 13%
                                                                                                                                                 current trends in regulatory, technical and
                                                                                                      3.7
                                                                                           22 15%                                                market conditions (in number of power plants)

  • Some existing energy efficiency programs such                                                    0.6 2%
                                                                                                                  2.5

                                                                                                                0.4 1%
                                                                                                                              2.8         1.4
                                                                                                                                                     1.1
     as Grenelle de l’Environnement or White                                                         15 13%                  0.5 2%     0.2 1%                     1.0
                                                                                                                                                    0.2 1%                                     0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                  0.7
     Certificates                                                                                                14 13%                                           0.2 2%
                                                                                                                                         7 13%                                  0.1 1%        0.1 1%
 Assumptions are made on:
                                                                                                                             12 13%
                                                                                                                                                     6 13%
                                                                                                                                                                  5 13%

  • Regulation (norms and standards, energy                                                                                                                                      4 14%        4 15%


    efficiency objectives, tariffs and incentive policies)
  • Market design (possibility to monetize DR on
    wholesale markets, contracts optimization, capacity
    markets)
  • Smart meters penetration and functionalities (for                         1 Normative hypothesis: 1 kWh saves 700g CO2 (average European value considering avoided peak
                                                                              capacity is mainly gas-fired plants)
    the households segment)                                                   2 Expressed in equivalent of avoided consumption of large size cities (2 mio inhabitants and 150,000
                                                                                commercials, average consumption of 8.2 TWh/year)
                                                                              3 Expressed in equivalent of avoided construction of power plants (500 MW)
 And typical DR offerings are modeled with                               Source: Capgemini Consulting
  hypothesis on their adoption by customers                                           Our study shows that peak shaving potential is
                                                                                      significant while electricity savings potential is
  *Demand Response study 2012 - Capgemini Consulting, VaasaETT and Enerdata                             more limited
                                                                                                                        | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                                                       17
An overview of the European energy markets



 Recent events are impacting the energy markets
  • Middle-East political tensions
  • Fukushima accident consequences
  • Economic downturn
 Present and future energy mix is evolving
  • Renewables
  • Gas
  • Energy mix costs
 Sustainability questions
  • EU 2020 objectives
  • Demand Response
 Smart grids
 Conclusion




                                                        | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                   18
Renewable energies are strongly impacting the grid
                                                     management
                            August 27, 2009                       November 8, 2009




Source: Enagas, Outlook for LNG


    In the absence of competitive electricity storage solutions, gas storage and CCGT
          rapid ramp up helps managing the renewable output volatility on the grid

                                                                 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                            19
The need for smart grids is emerging

 With the increase of renewable energies generation
  share, the electrical grid’s management is facing new        Communication
  challenges as these energies provide unforeseeable and         Technologies
  intermittent power generation that is thus not                                                              Network Device and
  schedulable. Balancing demand and supply on the grid                                                    Events Ops Management
  becomes very complex.
 Wind and solar power units are generally small and                                                          Back Office Applications
  decentralized, allowing customers to become occasional
  producers
 The distribution network that is less sophisticated than              Renewable
                                                                                s
  the transmission network is not designed to manage            Advanced
  those decentralized and sometimes bi-directional flows         Metering

 Smart grids concept has emerged to manage a                                                                     Enhanced Power Grid
                                                                Plug-In                              Digital Communications and Control
  dramatic increase in data flow, data storage and              Hybrids
  exchanges both for grid balance and customer                                                  Smart Meters &
                                                                             Control          Building Automation
  relations. They necessitate new equipments and will be                    Interface
  more digitally managed. Communication protocols will need
  to be standardized in order to manage the information flow
  on the net and with the customers as well as within
  buildings                                                                 Electric grid management is a key
                                                                                factor to improve security of
 New investments needed: Today there is funding in                          supply. However it’s not going to
  Europe (€1 bn EU funds) and, more so, in the US (stimulus                      happen overnight. A lot of
  grants: $3.4 bn), for smart grid studies and prototype                      regulatory and standardization
  building but not for their real deployment, while                            issues have to be worked out.
  investments are estimated at $200 bn worldwide from 2008-
  2015 ($53 bn in the US)*                                                *Pike Research

                                                                                           | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                          2
Smart grids: key success factors


 Smart grids implementation will necessitate new investments:
  • The transmission and distribution tariffs will have to increase and by consequence the electricity prices
  • Regulators, governments and customers will have to accept these prices increases
 Industrial R&D is needed to develop new equipments (as large competitive storage) or
  improve existing ones (as HVDC connections).
 Communication standards are crucial:
  • US is mobilized at the government (Department of Energy) and equipment manufactures levels
  • Europe is now considering more seriously this question
  • Equipments conceived with the internationally adopted standards will have a clear advantage
 Efforts on simulation and modeling are needed:
  • For the transmission grid there is a need to build a new European High Voltage grid management
    model
  • On the distribution side, the retail market has to evolve and modeling is needed. Interesting
    experiences initiated by regulators and involving all stakeholders (Utilities, equipment manufacturers,
    IT service companies, local authorities...) have been launched in Victoria (Australia), Texas (USA) and
    France.


                                                                        | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                   21
Smart meters are the first steps for smart grids

                                               Electricity and gas smart metering projects in Europe                                                                                                       In addition to smart meters and
                                                                                                                                                                                                            boxes, time of use tariffs,
       Mass roll-out finalized                                         Norway                                                                      Finland
                                                                        E        Draft regulation issued in Feb. 2011                                 E       Legislation into effect. At least             electricity curtailment incentives
       Mass roll-out by 2020 well-engaged                                        80% roll-out by 2016, 100% by 2018                                           80% roll-out by end 2013                      and public education are key
       Mass roll-out probably not                                                                                                                                                                           elements to implement a demand
       completed by 2020                                        Netherlands                                          Sweden
                                                                E Legal framework for voluntary
                                                                                                                         E   100% smart meters
                                                                                                                                            FI
                                                                                                                             implemented in 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            management policy
                UK                                                installation adopted
                E 27 million smart meters should                  Several pilots under way                     NO                                                                                          80% of electricity customers in EU
                  be implemented by 2020                                                                                 SE                                                                                 Member States should have smart
                G Similar to electricity                                                                                                                        Estonia
                                                                         Denmark
                                                                             E     Deployment by several
                                                                                                                                              EE
                                                                                                                                                                 E       Mandatory nationwide               meters by 2020. All countries
                        Ireland                                                                                                                                          roll-out under discussion
                        E National roll-out
                                                                                   DNOs. No national plan
                                                                                                                                                 LV                                                         required to perform cost benefit
                                                                                                      DK
                          planned for 2014-17              IE                                                                                         Germany                                               analysis by September 2012
                        G Studies under way                                                                                               LT              E     50 trials from 10 to 115,000 meters
                          for gas                                                                                                                               Nationwide roll out under discussion
                                                                    UK
                                                                                                                                                                Customers can opt in or out
                         Belgium                                                           NL                                                             G     Similar to electricity                     In September 2011, France has
                          E       No legislation yet
                                  Several business case                                 BE            DE                        PL           Poland                                                         decided the mass roll out of 35
                                                                                                                                             E       Legislation should be ready in 2012
                          G
                                  studies under way
                                  Similar to electricity                                   LU                                                        Pilots run by all Utilities                            million meters from 2013 to 2020 but
                                                                                                                     CZ                      G       Similar to electricity                                 the starting date will be delayed.
                              France                                                                                            SK
                              E     Decision for roll-out of 35         FR
                                                                                                                    AT
                                                                                                                                        Czech Republic                                                     4 technologies experimented for
                                    million smart meters by 2020       Austria               CH                                          E       National roll-out under discussion
                                    taken in 2011.                       E       Legislation adopted in 2010.
                                                                                                                                 HU
                                                                                                                                                 Several pilots under way                                   gas smart meters (18,500 meters)
                                                                                                              SI
                              G     GreenLys pilot, decision for
                                    mass roll-out by 2013
                                                                                 Pilots from 10,000 to                                           RO               Hungary                                   in France. Final mass roll-out
                                                                                 240,000 meters
                                                                         G       Legislation under discussion
                                                                                                                                                                     E     Legislation adopted in 2011      decision should be taken in 2013
                                                  ES                                                      IT
                                                                                                                                                                     G     Legislation under discussion        In Europe, the Value
                                                                                                                                                  BG
                                  PT                                                                                                                                                                             Chain unbundling
   Portugal
   E    Smart meter substitution plan        Spain
                                                                                                  Italy
                                                                                                  E       100% smart meters                   Greece
                                                                                                                                                                                                                regulation impacts
        presented by the regulator
        Several pilots (30,000 to
                                              E    100% smart meters should be                            implemented in 2009    GR              E        Roll-out under way                                   negatively the return
        50,000 meters) run
                                                   implemented by end 2018                        G       80% smart meters to be
                                                                                                          installed by 2016
                                                                                                                                                 G        Plans for extending the
                                                                                                                                                          electricity system to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 on smart meters
Source: ESMA, GEODE – Capgemini analysis, EEMO12, updated March 2012
                                                                                                                                                          water and gas meters                                      investment

                                                                                                                                                                                               | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               22
An overview of the European energy markets



 Recent events are impacting the energy markets
  • Middle-East political tensions
  • Fukushima accident consequences
  • Economic downturn
 Present and future energy mix is evolving
  • Renewables
  • Gas
  • Energy mix costs
 Sustainability questions
  • EU 2020 objectives
  • Demand Response
 Smart grids
 Conclusion




                                                        | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                   23
Utilities need to change their business model


                                                             « Energy Orb » (PG&E) gives visual
 Oil and gas procurement tensions and post-               indications to clients involved in energy
                                                               demand management programs
  Fukushima accident are leading to changes in the
  energy landscape
 European Utilities are negatively impacted by the
  economic slowdown, governments pressure on prices,
  potential extra-taxes and frozen regulation
 US Utilities are negatively impacted by low gas prices
 They need to adapt their business model, increase
  competitiveness and launch profitable innovative
  projects
 Developed countries have to limit their energy
  demand and Utilities have a key role to play
 Public deserves a proper information on all energy-
  related questions



                                                           | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

                                                                                                       24
About Capgemini



With around 120,000 people in 40 countries, Capgemini is one of the world's foremost providers of
consulting, technology and outsourcing services. The Group reported 2011 global revenues of EUR 9.7
billion. Together with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers business and technology solutions that fit
their needs and drive the results they want.
A deeply multicultural organization, Capgemini has developed its own way of working, the Collaborative
Business ExperienceTM, and draws on Rightshore ®, its worldwide delivery model.

With EUR 670 million revenue in 2011 and 8,400 dedicated consultants engaged in Utilities projects
across Europe, North & South America and Asia Pacific, Capgemini's Global Utilities Sector serves the
business consulting and information technology needs of many of the world’s largest players of this
industry.

More information is available at www.capgemini.com/energy.

Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini




                                                                                | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
                                                                         Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini
                                                                                                                             25
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

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European Energy Challenges v2

  • 1. European Energy Challenges Colette Lewiner Paris – May 11th, 2012 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
  • 2. An overview of the European energy markets  Recent events are impacting the energy markets • Middle-East political tensions • Fukushima accident consequences • Economic downturn  Present and future energy mix is evolving • Renewables • Gas • Energy mix costs  Sustainability questions • EU 2020 objectives • Demand Response  Smart grids  Conclusion | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 2
  • 3. The rising political tensions in Iran are particularly worrying for global oil supply Italy  After China, the EU is the largest importer of Iranian oil Iran’s oil exports (Jan to June 2011) (about 20%) % of each 13%  In response to the Iran’s nuclear program negotiations country’s total 7% oil imports Others Other EU failure, the US and Europe decided sanctions against Iran, Jan to June 2011 Spain who, in return, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz: 12% 5% China 6% 13% • Strengthening of the US military presence in the Gulf • Oil embargo from the EU (due to start in July) which should 11% hit 450,000 to 550,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil exports Total Japan Iranian oil  But Iran banned crude oil supply to France, the UK and South Africa 22% exports 14% 10% the EU right away 2.3 m  In addition, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India could 25% bl/d reduce their purchases (up to 250,000 bl/d). In total, Source: Financial Times between 25% and 35% of Iran’s oil exports could be India Turkey 13% impacted 4% 11%  However, Saudi Arabia is increasing significantly its 51% 7% production to curb price 10% South Korea Average daily oil flow 10% through the Strait of Hormuz (2011) 14 crude oil tankers Primary factors driving demand are Almost 17 million barrels Source: Financial Times economic growth and increased 35% 20% requirements in the developing world Iran political situations may place global of all seaborne of oil traded production and transportation at risk traded oil worldwide | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 3
  • 4. Oil prices in European currencies are at their highest  Oil prices forecasts uncertainty is increased by  In Euros, the crude oil spot price is at its highest speculation: each barrel traded on the physical  There is currently a $20 spread between WTI and Brent, market is traded 35 times on the financial markets a the consequence of a localized logistic phenomenon  There is some consumption/price elasticity at Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is priced  High present oil prices are linked to tensions in  President Obama is supporting a new pipeline Middle East and Iran (Keystone XL) Oil prices Crude oil spot – Brent in US dollars and in Euros Crude oil spot – Brent vs. WTI 130 123.04 Brent 120 110 101.53 100 WTI 90 80 70 May 2011 Sept 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Source: Focus Gaz, February 17, 2012 Source: Ycharts Source: France inflation High oil prices impact economic growth (EU’s oil import costs up 44% in 2011 compared to 2010 and net oil import bill estimated to account for 2.8% EU’s GDP in 2012 compared to 1.7% from 2000 to 2010) and trade exchanges balance | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 4
  • 5. Gas is not a global market. Very different regional pricing systems Gas spot prices Gas prices evolution 50 100 In €/MWh ($4.4/MBtu=€10.6 /MWh) DE - Import price NL - TTF BE - Zeebrugge UK - NBP 40 DE - NCG FR - PEG Nord 80 Long-term contracts price Brent month ahead Spot price Gas prices [€/MWh] 30 60 Brent price [€/bl] 20 40 10 20 0 0 Europe versus US gas prices Source: Gas Exchanges web sites, SG Commodities Research, BMWI – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13  US spot prices could go up on the mid-term triggered by the new EPA (Environment Protection Agency) regulation on air pollution (Cross State Air Pollution Rule) that could lead to 20% of US coal-fired plants phase-out and their replacement by gas  Beginning of 2012, Gazprom has agreed to reduce by 10% the price of its long-term contracts to Europe US spot gas prices are only one third of long-term European gas prices. For how long? Source: Focus Gaz January 2012 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 5
  • 6. Post-Fukushima nuclear reactors’ market: new builds mainly in Asia, Russia and Middle East  Worldwide, 435 reactors are in operation, 62 under construction and 489 planned or proposed (April 2012, World Nuclear Association) Overview of existing nuclear plants and project capacities (as of April 2012)  The final number of planned or proposed 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 reactors is difficult to assess. However, two China MWe points are clear: USA Russia • Provided reactors are run safely, the consequences India of the Fukushima accident should be less Japan France important than viewed just after the accident South Korea • The proportion of new, safer “Generation 3 United Kingdom reactor” builds will increase Ukraine Canada  It is worthwhile mentioning that: UAE Operable Saudi Arabia Under construction • In the US: Germany South Africa Planned  TVA has decided to complete Bellefonte 1 reactor Vietnam Proposed  The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has certified the Turkey design of Westinghouse Electric Co.'s AP1000 reactor Sweden  Southern Company is building 2 new nuclear plants in Spain Vogtle, Georgia Finland Czech Republic • Finland announced a new build, the first Brazil announcement of a new site anywhere in the world Switzerland since the Fukushima accident Source: World Nuclear Association • Russian Rosenergoatom has received a license for The vast majority of new constructions and building the Kaliningrad plant existing plants in operation should continue with • No.1 nuclear unit in Zhejiang Sanmen (China) has some delays and more safety focus. restarted the infrastructure construction project The IEA* forecasts that nuclear output will rise by • Bulgaria has decided to build a 7th reactor at more than 70% over the period to 2035 Kozloduy *IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 6
  • 7. There is some elasticity between the economic situation and the energy consumption EU electricity and gas consumption Evolution of electricity and gas consumption (M/M-12) non-weather-adjusted (non-weather-adjusted) +8% Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 -6% -11% 5,599 5,010 5,708 5,098 Electricity +4.1% -2.7% 9% -4.7% Gas 14% 3,265 1% 3,294 3,136 -1% 0% 0% 3,177 -3% -2% -2% -3% -4% -5% -2% -10% -4% -6% -4% -7% -10% -12% -12% -16% -14% Electricity Gas 2008 2009 2010 2011 -22% Source: SG Energy Pulse – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13 Source: ENTSO-E, BP – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13  In 2009, electricity and gas consumption dropped in Europe (-4.7% and -6.1% respectively) due to the crisis, in 2010, they increased again (+4.1% and +7.0%) thanks to the economic recovery and colder than average winter temperatures. Wholesale electricity and gas prices followed the same trend.  In 2011, European electricity and gas consumption decreased respectively by 2.7%* and 10.7%**, mainly due to a mild weather. In France, electricity consumption decreased by 6.8% (weather-adjusted: +0.8%) and gas consumption by 13.4% (weather-adjusted: -1.9%). A second economic slowdown would impact negatively the energy consumption and prices * Société Générale Energy Pulse (Focus group representing 63% of European electricity consumption) **Eurogas | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 7
  • 8. An overview of the European energy markets  Recent events are impacting the energy markets • Middle-East political tensions • Fukushima accident consequences • Economic downturn  Present and future energy mix is evolving • Renewables • Gas • Energy mix costs  Sustainability questions • EU 2020 objectives • Demand Response  Smart grids  Conclusion | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 8
  • 9. European energy mix evolution 2010 and 2025 electricity mix (as of June 2011)  Energy mix should evolve towards 100% more gas, renewables and coal (in certain countries) 90%  Shale gas development is changing 80% the picture  In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas 70% Solar + Biomass share of primary energy consumption Wind 60% reaches 25% in 2035 at a global level Hydro Other f ossil (more than coal, slightly less than oil) Gas 50% but leads to a +3.5°C global Lignite + Coal temperature increase (compared to Nuclear 40% the +2°C objective) 2010 mix: lef t- hand side bar 30%  In 2011, the IEA** has examined a Low 2025 mix: right- hand side bar Nuclear Scenario: 20% • No new nuclear plant is built in OECD countries 10% • Non-OECD countries build only half of the projected nuclear plants 0% BE BG CH CZ DE ES FI FR UK HU IT LT NL PL RO SE SI SK • The operating lifespan of existing Source: ENTSO-E – Capgemini analysis and estimations, EEMO13 nuclear plants is limited to 45 years  However, today’s nuclear energy The energy mix evolution could result in: development forecast is more • Higher costs (renewables development) optimistic • Higher temperature increase (more fossil fuels) *GAS: Golden Age of Gas, International Energy Agency • Lower energy independency **World Energy Outlook 2011, IEA | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 9
  • 10. Renewable energies have continued their quick development. For how long?  As of May 2011, 10% of the European Growth rate of renewable energy sources generation plants under construction 110% 2008 Solar PV Top 3 countries ranked by: are from renewable energy sources (vs. Capacity Growth (abs.) Growth (%) 100% Capacity installed* Growth** (absolute) 7% in 2009) DE DE SK 1. DE 1. SK  In 2011, despite a drop of the new EU 90% 2005 IT CZ FR 2. ES 2. FR CZ FR SI wind installed capacity due to the 3. IT 3. SI financial crisis and tougher regulations, 80% 2010 * Volume for wind, small hydro, geothermal and solar PV wind power covered over 5% of EU’s in MW and for biogas and biomass in TWh ** Relative growth additionally displayed for solar PV and 70% wind consumption (172 TWh)  Many governments have or are launching Growth (%) 60% 2007 2009 large offshore wind programs • September 2010: 300 MW offshore wind 50% 2006 farm inaugurated in the UK Wind 40% • France: part of the 3,000 MW tender Capacity Growth (abs.) Growth (%) awarded to 2 consortiums (one led by EDF 30% DE ES RO for 1,400 MW and one led by Iberdrola for ES DE BG IT FR PL 500 MW) in April 2012 20% 2005 2006 2008 2009 • North Sea: 400 MW (Germany) and 325 2007 2010 + Biomass MW (Belgium) under construction 10% 2009 DE PL • Nuclear phase out in Germany should FI SE 0% boost wind power but creates issues on 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 SE 80 NL 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 the grid Electricity production (TWh)  Despite the solar PV growth in 2011 Source: Eur’Observer barometers – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13 globally (+44%), many solar companies went bust because of China competition A stable governmental policy is key for renewables  In 2011, renewable energy investment development. The eurozone sovereign debt issues should rose 5% to US$260 billion* globally lead to subsidies decreases and threaten the EU 2020 (solar energy: +36%) Finance *Bloomberg New Energy objective achievement | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 10
  • 11. The gas paradigm is changing  In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas consumption is increased. Main World primary natural gas demand by assumptions are: sector and scenario • China ambitious policy for gas use • Increased power plants’ consumption linked to lower nuclear energy • Sustained low gas price  However, in this scenario, heavy investments in infrastructure (difficult to finance) are needed Global unconventional natural gas resources (tcm) SE: 1,148 NO: 2,324 PL: 5,236 Source: World Energy Outlook 2011: Golden Age of Gas Report FR: 5,040 Shale gas changes the gas perspective: • It increases the total gas resources to 250 years of consumption • It is widely distributed • It is cheap ($2/Mbtu in the US) • It allows to repatriate gas consuming industries as Largest EU technically recoverable FR: 5,040 shale gas resources (bcm) chemicals and to fight against Source: EIA deindustrialization * GAS: Golden Age of Gas, IEA WEO 2011 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 11
  • 12. Extensive analysis have been carried out on energy mix scenarios in France  The Energies 2050 commission examined four existing energy scenarios: 1. Lifespan extension of existing reactors: all existing nuclear reactors lifetime is extended to 60 years providing the nuclear safety authority (ASN) allows it 2. Quicker adoption of 3rd generation nuclear reactors: replacement of all existing nuclear reactors by 3rd generation reactors (EPR) as soon as they reach their 40 years lifetime, which implies to build at least 2 EPR reactors per year during 10 years (from 2020 to 2030) 3. Progressive reduction of nuclear energy in the mix: all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime and 1 on 2 reactors is replaced by a 3rd generation reactor (EPR), which leads to a 40-60% nuclear energy share by 2030 4. a. Nuclear phase out (more fossil fuel energy): all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime and are replaced by fossil fueled plants 4. b. Nuclear phase out (more RES): all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime and are replaced by renewable energy plants Assumptions in the different scenarios by 2030 Electricity generation costs (€/MWh w/o taxes) CO2 emissions Employment Energy security ing nuclear reactors 1 ~25 MtCO2/y Stable Stable Not able to ion nuclear reactors 2 ~25 MtCO2/y measure Stable 3 - 100,000 to Energy sources diversification ar energy in the mix 30-50 MtCO2/y 150,000 jobs but increase of fossil fuel imports 4a e fossil fuel energy) ~120 MtCO2/y Increase of fossil fuel imports - 200,000 jobs 4b hase out (more RES) ~45 MtCO2/y Potential issues on grid security 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Source: Energies 2050, February 2012 – Capgemini analysis Energies 2050 commission recommends extending nuclear reactors lifespan | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 12
  • 13. An overview of the European energy markets  Recent events are impacting the energy markets • Middle-East political tensions • Fukushima accident consequences • Economic downturn  Present and future energy mix is evolving • Renewables • Gas • Energy mix costs  Sustainability questions • EU 2020 objectives • Demand Response  Smart grids  Conclusion | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 13
  • 14. Status on the EU 2020 objectives  After the 2009 drop (-7.1%), GHG emissions increased 110 EU-27 GHG emissions Source: BP statistical report 2011, European Environment Agency, Eur’Observer – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13 by 2.2% due to the 2010 economic recovery. For 2011, Historical evolution of GHG emissions EU-27 GHG emissions [base year=100] 105 Path to reach 2020 target 88% ETS sector CO2 emissions released data show a 2020 target f or EU-27 2.4%* decrease, mainly due to the combustion/power 100 sector (-3.1%)  An economic slowdown would push CO2 emissions 95 down 90  In its March 2011 Energy Efficiency plan, the EU estimated that with current measures only half of the 85 objective would be attained and developed a new draft -20% Directive focusing on: 80 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 • Triggering better energy efficiency of public buildings 1,850 EU-27 primary energy consumption • Demand response programs notably through smart meters roll out EU-27 Primary energy consumption [Mtoe] 1,800 • White Certificates mechanisms extension 1,750 • Better usage of cogeneration  In 2013, the EU will re-assess the situation 1,700 -9% 1,650 The present European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) needs to be amended to 1,600 provide predictable and high enough CO2 1,550 Historical evolution of primary energy consumption Path to reach 2020 target 2020 target f or EU-27 prices. The UK announced a carbon price Projection with current measures in place (as per the March 2011 EU Energy Ef f iciency Plan) 1,500 floor to start in 2013 at £16/t of CO2 -20% 1,450 *Deutsche Bank analysis, April 2012 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 14
  • 15. In certain countries as France, peak shaving is a key issue during cold weather % peak shaving observed in various pilots worldwide  Several means exist for peak shaving and energy % peak shaving Range of peak shaving savings, that can be combined or not: • Dynamic tariffs (that should be further developed with the mass roll-out of smart meters) • Automation such as smart thermostat, smart appliances, in-home displays or web-based consumer portal • Demand management programs such as customers alerts, social networks communication or feedbacks through bills, web, SMS, smart phones Source: Capgemini Consulting Peak shaving: the use of displays helps but the customers’ behavior is key | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 15
  • 16. In all developed countries, energy savings are key % energy savings observed in various pilots worldwide  Large-scale pilots operated for more than % energy saving one year reach energy Range of energy saving savings in the 2-6% range while more focused programs based on customer segmentation can reach up to 18%* energy savings  In France, only one third of peak shaving electricity savings result in final electricity consumption reduction Prices increase and Time-of-Use tariffs should trigger sustained energy savings results Source: Capgemini Consulting *Literature review for the Energy Demand Research Project, Sarah Darby, Oxford University, 2010 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 16
  • 17. Demand response potential for EU-27 by 2020 Dynamic scenario:  In Capgemini Consulting’s Demand Response Demand Response study 3.1 Savings in CO2 emissions (in Mt of CO2 1 ) (DR) study*, the potential of peak shaving and 2012 results snapshot 1.0 3% Savings in electricity consumption (in equivalent number of major cities2 and in % energy savings) energy savings is modeled on the basis of a 5.2 4 2% Savings in peak generating capacities (in number baseline scenario: 0.9 2% 4.3 of power plants3 and in % peak shaving) • GDP growth 2010-20: 1.8% in average 0.8 1% Moderate scenario: Probable savings based on our observation of • CAGR electricity consumption 2010-20: 0.7% 24 13% current trends in regulatory, technical and 3.7 22 15% market conditions (in number of power plants) • Some existing energy efficiency programs such 0.6 2% 2.5 0.4 1% 2.8 1.4 1.1 as Grenelle de l’Environnement or White 15 13% 0.5 2% 0.2 1% 1.0 0.2 1% 0.6 0.7 Certificates 14 13% 0.2 2% 7 13% 0.1 1% 0.1 1%  Assumptions are made on: 12 13% 6 13% 5 13% • Regulation (norms and standards, energy 4 14% 4 15% efficiency objectives, tariffs and incentive policies) • Market design (possibility to monetize DR on wholesale markets, contracts optimization, capacity markets) • Smart meters penetration and functionalities (for 1 Normative hypothesis: 1 kWh saves 700g CO2 (average European value considering avoided peak capacity is mainly gas-fired plants) the households segment) 2 Expressed in equivalent of avoided consumption of large size cities (2 mio inhabitants and 150,000 commercials, average consumption of 8.2 TWh/year) 3 Expressed in equivalent of avoided construction of power plants (500 MW)  And typical DR offerings are modeled with Source: Capgemini Consulting hypothesis on their adoption by customers Our study shows that peak shaving potential is significant while electricity savings potential is *Demand Response study 2012 - Capgemini Consulting, VaasaETT and Enerdata more limited | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 17
  • 18. An overview of the European energy markets  Recent events are impacting the energy markets • Middle-East political tensions • Fukushima accident consequences • Economic downturn  Present and future energy mix is evolving • Renewables • Gas • Energy mix costs  Sustainability questions • EU 2020 objectives • Demand Response  Smart grids  Conclusion | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 18
  • 19. Renewable energies are strongly impacting the grid management August 27, 2009 November 8, 2009 Source: Enagas, Outlook for LNG In the absence of competitive electricity storage solutions, gas storage and CCGT rapid ramp up helps managing the renewable output volatility on the grid | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 19
  • 20. The need for smart grids is emerging  With the increase of renewable energies generation share, the electrical grid’s management is facing new Communication challenges as these energies provide unforeseeable and Technologies intermittent power generation that is thus not Network Device and schedulable. Balancing demand and supply on the grid Events Ops Management becomes very complex.  Wind and solar power units are generally small and Back Office Applications decentralized, allowing customers to become occasional producers  The distribution network that is less sophisticated than Renewable s the transmission network is not designed to manage Advanced those decentralized and sometimes bi-directional flows Metering  Smart grids concept has emerged to manage a Enhanced Power Grid Plug-In Digital Communications and Control dramatic increase in data flow, data storage and Hybrids exchanges both for grid balance and customer Smart Meters & Control Building Automation relations. They necessitate new equipments and will be Interface more digitally managed. Communication protocols will need to be standardized in order to manage the information flow on the net and with the customers as well as within buildings Electric grid management is a key factor to improve security of  New investments needed: Today there is funding in supply. However it’s not going to Europe (€1 bn EU funds) and, more so, in the US (stimulus happen overnight. A lot of grants: $3.4 bn), for smart grid studies and prototype regulatory and standardization building but not for their real deployment, while issues have to be worked out. investments are estimated at $200 bn worldwide from 2008- 2015 ($53 bn in the US)* *Pike Research | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 2
  • 21. Smart grids: key success factors  Smart grids implementation will necessitate new investments: • The transmission and distribution tariffs will have to increase and by consequence the electricity prices • Regulators, governments and customers will have to accept these prices increases  Industrial R&D is needed to develop new equipments (as large competitive storage) or improve existing ones (as HVDC connections).  Communication standards are crucial: • US is mobilized at the government (Department of Energy) and equipment manufactures levels • Europe is now considering more seriously this question • Equipments conceived with the internationally adopted standards will have a clear advantage  Efforts on simulation and modeling are needed: • For the transmission grid there is a need to build a new European High Voltage grid management model • On the distribution side, the retail market has to evolve and modeling is needed. Interesting experiences initiated by regulators and involving all stakeholders (Utilities, equipment manufacturers, IT service companies, local authorities...) have been launched in Victoria (Australia), Texas (USA) and France. | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 21
  • 22. Smart meters are the first steps for smart grids Electricity and gas smart metering projects in Europe  In addition to smart meters and boxes, time of use tariffs, Mass roll-out finalized Norway Finland E Draft regulation issued in Feb. 2011 E Legislation into effect. At least electricity curtailment incentives Mass roll-out by 2020 well-engaged 80% roll-out by 2016, 100% by 2018 80% roll-out by end 2013 and public education are key Mass roll-out probably not elements to implement a demand completed by 2020 Netherlands Sweden E Legal framework for voluntary E 100% smart meters FI implemented in 2009 management policy UK installation adopted E 27 million smart meters should Several pilots under way NO  80% of electricity customers in EU be implemented by 2020 SE Member States should have smart G Similar to electricity Estonia Denmark E Deployment by several EE E Mandatory nationwide meters by 2020. All countries Ireland roll-out under discussion E National roll-out DNOs. No national plan LV required to perform cost benefit DK planned for 2014-17 IE Germany analysis by September 2012 G Studies under way LT E 50 trials from 10 to 115,000 meters for gas Nationwide roll out under discussion UK Customers can opt in or out Belgium NL G Similar to electricity  In September 2011, France has E No legislation yet Several business case BE DE PL Poland decided the mass roll out of 35 E Legislation should be ready in 2012 G studies under way Similar to electricity LU Pilots run by all Utilities million meters from 2013 to 2020 but CZ G Similar to electricity the starting date will be delayed. France SK E Decision for roll-out of 35 FR AT Czech Republic  4 technologies experimented for million smart meters by 2020 Austria CH E National roll-out under discussion taken in 2011. E Legislation adopted in 2010. HU Several pilots under way gas smart meters (18,500 meters) SI G GreenLys pilot, decision for mass roll-out by 2013 Pilots from 10,000 to RO Hungary in France. Final mass roll-out 240,000 meters G Legislation under discussion E Legislation adopted in 2011 decision should be taken in 2013 ES IT G Legislation under discussion In Europe, the Value BG PT Chain unbundling Portugal E Smart meter substitution plan Spain Italy E 100% smart meters Greece regulation impacts presented by the regulator Several pilots (30,000 to E 100% smart meters should be implemented in 2009 GR E Roll-out under way negatively the return 50,000 meters) run implemented by end 2018 G 80% smart meters to be installed by 2016 G Plans for extending the electricity system to on smart meters Source: ESMA, GEODE – Capgemini analysis, EEMO12, updated March 2012 water and gas meters investment | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 22
  • 23. An overview of the European energy markets  Recent events are impacting the energy markets • Middle-East political tensions • Fukushima accident consequences • Economic downturn  Present and future energy mix is evolving • Renewables • Gas • Energy mix costs  Sustainability questions • EU 2020 objectives • Demand Response  Smart grids  Conclusion | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 23
  • 24. Utilities need to change their business model « Energy Orb » (PG&E) gives visual  Oil and gas procurement tensions and post- indications to clients involved in energy demand management programs Fukushima accident are leading to changes in the energy landscape  European Utilities are negatively impacted by the economic slowdown, governments pressure on prices, potential extra-taxes and frozen regulation  US Utilities are negatively impacted by low gas prices  They need to adapt their business model, increase competitiveness and launch profitable innovative projects  Developed countries have to limit their energy demand and Utilities have a key role to play  Public deserves a proper information on all energy- related questions | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 24
  • 25. About Capgemini With around 120,000 people in 40 countries, Capgemini is one of the world's foremost providers of consulting, technology and outsourcing services. The Group reported 2011 global revenues of EUR 9.7 billion. Together with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers business and technology solutions that fit their needs and drive the results they want. A deeply multicultural organization, Capgemini has developed its own way of working, the Collaborative Business ExperienceTM, and draws on Rightshore ®, its worldwide delivery model. With EUR 670 million revenue in 2011 and 8,400 dedicated consultants engaged in Utilities projects across Europe, North & South America and Asia Pacific, Capgemini's Global Utilities Sector serves the business consulting and information technology needs of many of the world’s largest players of this industry. More information is available at www.capgemini.com/energy. Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini 25
  • 26. | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector