Presentation delivered by Mr. Ian Durant, Director of Economics at the 2020 Annual News Conference on February 1, 2022 at CDB's Headquarters in Barbados.

1. 2022
POLICY
IMPERATIVES
TO SPUR
GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT
Mr. Ian Durant,
Director, Economics Department

2. IN REVIEW

3. GROWTH
2021
GDP
Growth
Estimates
3.2%
SERVICE
EXPORTERS
2.7%
COMMODITY
EXPORTERS
3.0%
REGIONAL

4. 3.2%
+
GROWTH
Service Exporters

5. 2.7%
GROWTH
+
Commodity Exporters
Guyana
Continued growth in
mining and quarrying
industry driven by
crude oil extraction.
2021
2020
19.9%
Suriname
Reduced purchasing power
following fiscal consolidation
and exchange rate
depreciation; protracted
lockdowns and curfews.
-3.5%
2021
2020
Trinidad and Tobago
Mandated closure of
service sector entities;
lower natural gas
production.
-2.9%
2021
2020 -7.4%
43.5% -15.9%

6. Expenditure containment
and Growth
2018 2019 2020 2021
-
FISCAL
Debt
66.5 64.8
82.5
80.5
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
Biggest Changes
78.5%
89.5%
Saint Vincent
and the
Grenadines
104.8%
127.9%
Belize
128.9%
147.7%
Suriname
Average Regional Debt
(% of GDP)
97.0%
102.1%
Commonwealth
of
Dominica

7. OUTLOOK

8. Risks to the Outlook
There are downside
risks to the outlook
OUTLOOK
Inflation
Price pressures due to logistical
challenges and resource constraints will
challenge recovery efforts and
disproportionately affect vulnerable
groups.
New COVID-19 Variants
Growth prospects could recede if new
variants emerge and slow the
recovery.
Geopolitical Tensions
In a time of rising inequality and
widening paths of growth – any
unforeseen shocks threatens to be
more contagious and long lasting
across the globe.
Rising Interest Rates
Monetary policy tethered on reversing the
COVID-19 low-growth/high inflation reality:
U-turn in interest rates or accommodative
stance in spite of inflationary pressures.
Adverse Climate Events
The increased occurrence and intensity of
natural disasters within the region remain a
direct threat to both regional growth and
debt sustainability.

9. BMC
Growth
Outlook
2022
OUTLOOK
Highest increases expected in:
Guyana Anguilla
Barbados
Saint Lucia
+ 47.5% + 7.1%
+ 7.6%
+ 8.1%
Average projected
growth in BMCs
9.1%
Service Exporters Commodity Exporters
ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE HAI JAM MON SKN SLU SVG TCI GUY SUR TT
7.1
5.0 6.3 7.6 6.5
4.0
5.0 3.8 4.5 4.3
0.3
6.4
4.5
8.1
4.0 4.8
47.5
1.8
5.4

10. Debt and Fiscal Outlook 2022
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0
20
40
60
80
100
Debt (% GDP)
Regional Commodity Exporters Service Exporters
SUSTAINABILITY
THRESHOLD
As the region
continues to
recover, we expect
an improvement in
regional debt
dynamics and the
intensification of a
trend towards
sustainability.
OUTLOOK

11. POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS

12. The continued advancement
of standards of living and the attainment
of the SDGs must rest
on a platform of sustained,
diversified export growth.
“
“

13. Policy Imperatives
POLICY
Improved
logistics
infrastructure
Facilitating exploitation
of renewable energy Modernising
education
Regional cooperation
and integration
Greater efficiency of
regulatory frameworks
Digitalization