Inequality and sustainability

Introduction
The economics paradigm
Planetary boundaries
Unequal distribution of wealth

Economic inequality and sustainability in a full
world
Union of Concerned Scientists
Cambridge, MA

Carlos Amador-Bedolla∗
∗
Departamento de Física y Química Teórica, Facultad de Química
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
On sabbatical semester at Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology
Harvard University

May 12, 2010

carlos.amador@unam.mx

Introduction
Present human activity

Current human activity


Introduction

Human population

Población humana a través de la historia
7000

Homo sapiens exists
6000
since two hundred
5000 thousand years
Población (millones)

approximately
4000
100% population
Población mundial
increase in the last 44
3000
years
2000 42% population
increase in the last 25
1000
years
Data from
0 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_estimates
−10000−8000 −6000 −4000 −2000 0 2000
Año AC/DC


Introduction

Current human activity is recent
Our population growth rate is not exponential!

Three different
exponential rates
Adam was created
either in
220 000 BC, 25 264
BC or 828 BC


Introduction

Demand for energy

United States of America from 1635 to 2000
Different energy sources: wood, coal, oil, natural gas, hydro, nuclear
Quadrillion Btu ≈ 25 million tons of oil
Current USA: 100 Quad. World: 450 Quad/year=15TW.
Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/intro.html


Introduction

Who made this possible?

A few scientists...

Johannes
Kepler (b. 1571
near Stuttgart)
Astronomia
nova (1609,
Prague)


Introduction


A few scientists...

Isaac Newton
Philosophiae
Naturalis
Principia
Mathematica
(1687)


Introduction


A few inventors...

Thomas
Newcomen
(1710)
Piston steam
engine
Efﬁciency below
1%
Miner’s friend


Introduction


A few inventors...

James Watt
(1784)
Separation of
the hot and cold
phases
Efﬁciency close
to 3%


Introduction


More scientists...

James Prescott
Joule (1845)
Heat and work
are energy
Thermodynamics
ﬁrst law


Introduction


More scientists...

Rudolf Clausius
(1850)
Heat and work
are energy but
interconversion is
limited by entropy
Thermodynamics
second law


Introduction


And economists

Adam Smith (1776)
The invisible hand
Free market


Introduction


And economists

David Ricardo (1817)
Comparative advantage
Law of diminishing returns


Introduction
Permanent growth is impossible


And economists

John Stuart Mill (1848)
Discussions on freedom
and liberty
Human rights, feminism,
environment


Introduction

Ever increasing economic activity paradigm
Year after year, economy must grow

Historic World Gross Product
Producto mundial bruto (PMB) a través de la historia
50

Humanity golden age

PMB (billones de dólares internacionales)
40
or
Humanity mega bash
30

Producto Mundial Bruto

20

10
Angus Maddison. Historical Statistics for the World
Economy: 1-2006 AD.
http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-
ﬁle_09-2008.xls 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Año


Introduction

Current human activity is recent
Our economic growth rate is not exponential!

At least two different
economic rates of
growth
Until 1870 we grew at
0.2% per year
—twofold increase in
302 years.
Since 1870 we grow at
3.2% per year
—twofold increase in
22 years.


Introduction

Year after year, economy must grow

Humanity golden age
or
Humanity mega bash

horizontal: 1896-2009
vertical: 0 to 14000 djia units

Dow Jones & Co. 2009.
https://www.djaverages.com/


Introduction

Year after year economy must grow

Humanity golden age
or
Humanity mega bash

H. Charles J. Godfray, et al. Food Security: The
Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People. Science
327, 812 (2010); DOI: 10.1126/science.1185383
World food production per capita grew 12% since
1990, 20% in developing countries, 5% in least
developed countries.


Introduction Climate change
The economics paradigm Energy
Planetary boundaries Water
Unequal distribution of wealth And a few more

Year after year economy must grow

Humanity golden age
or
Humanity mega bash

H. Charles J. Godfray, et al. Food Security: The
Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People. Science
327, 812 (2010); DOI: 10.1126/science.1185383 Chicken production increased over 450% since
1960, pork more than 250%.



World is (effectively) a closed system
Permanent growth is impossible in a ﬁnite system: Climate change

Oxygen in the atmosphere (a.
u.)
Carbon equivalent emissions
Change in the fraction of 13 C
to 12 C —inverted scale— new
carbon comes from fossil fuels
Forster, P., V. Ramaswamy, P. Artaxo, T. Berntsen, R. Betts, D.W.
Fahey, J. Haywood, J. Lean, D.C. Lowe, G. Myhre, J. Nganga, R.
Prinn, G. Raga, M. Schulz and R. Van Dorland, 2007: Changes
in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In:
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.
Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.



Permanent growth is impossible in a ﬁnite system: Energy

Hubbert’s peak
Open debate. Cornucopians
vs. neo-Malthusians.

For more recent calculations v.
Nashawi, Malallah & Al-Bisharah, Forecasting
world crude oil production using multicyclic Hubbert
model. Energy Fuels. ASAP
DOI:10.1021/ef901240p (2010).



Mexico: Hubbert’s peak

Mexico (UK,
Norway) is
amongst the oil
producing
countries with the
fastest decrease
rates



Permanent growth is impossible in a ﬁnite system: Water



GRACE: Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment
GRACE: humanity golden
age
Satellites orbiting 200 km
apart and interchanging
microwaves
Sense the variation in gravity
for regions (∼160 000 km2 )
This is the most irrigated
region of the world (more than
80% of the surface)
Estimated 54±9 km3 /year
water extraction from aquifers
V. M. Tiwari, J. Wahr & S. Swenson, Dwindling groundwater
resources in northern India, from satellite gravity observations,
Geophys. Res. Lett. (2009, in press)
M. Rodell, I. Velicogna & J. Famiglietti, Satellite-based estimates
of groundwater depletion in India, Nature
doi:10.1038/nature08238 (12 August 2009)


have become the main driver of global envi- industrialized forms of agriculture, human
Introduction Gini index
ronmental change5. This could see human activities have reached a level that could dam-
The economics paradigm activities push the Earth system outside regionage the systems that keep Earth in the desirable
Country by country, region by the
Planetary boundaries Application to CO of
stable environmental state 2 the Holocene, Holocene state. The result could be irrevers-
Unequal distribution of wealth with consequences that are detrimental or ible and, in some cases, abrupt environmental
Inequality and/or sustainability
even catastrophic for large parts of the world. change, leading to a state less conducive to
During the Holocene, environmental human development6. Without pressure from
change occurred naturally and Earth’s regu- humans, the Holocene is expected to continue
World is (effectively) a closed system latory capacity maintained the conditions for at least several thousands of years7.
that enabled human development. Regular
temperatures, freshwater availability and Planetary boundaries
Permanent growth is impossible in a finite system: Planetary boundaries
biogeochemical flows all stayed within a rela- To meet the challenge of maintaining the
tively narrow range. Now, largely because of Holocene state, we propose a framework
a rapidly growing reliance on fossil fuels and based on ‘planetary boundaries’. These
Nine boundaries not to be crossed to
mantain viability of human species Climate change
on )
uti Oc
oll fied ean
l p nti ac
ica qua id
ifi
climate change (−) t

ot m
ye
e
Ch

ca
tion
(n
ocean acidification

)
ified

ozo
(not yet quant g

Stra epletion
aerosol load ic
in
r
Atmosphe

ne d
tospheric
atmospheric ozone depletion
nitrogen and phosphorous cycles
(−)

loss

flow eoch
(bio

Nitro
cycl en
ity

g
bou em ycle oru

e
g
ers
global freshwater use

nd ica
div

ar l
o

y)
Bi

Ph
c ph
os
change in land use us
e
nd
in la
fre
shw
at
s
Change Glo er use
bal
biodiversity loss (−)
atmospheric aerosol A safe 1operating space for humanity. Johan Rockström, et al. Nature 461 472-475
Figure | Beyond the boundary. The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating
space for nine planetary systems. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for
(24 September 2009).
Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity. and human
each variable. The boundaries in three systems (rate of biodiversity loss, climate change Ecology
chemical pollution interference with the nitrogen cycle), have already been exceeded.
and Society. 14(2): 32. [online] URL:
472 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

!"#$!"%&'()*)+*&,-.*/0.12&3+4*5.1)/6&78&9:;)*55&&&!"#

The economics paradigm Country by country, region by region
Planetary boundaries Application to CO2
Unequal distribution of wealth Inequality and/or sustainability

Permanent-growth-allows-distribution-of-wealth
paradigm
Everybody is invited to the bash...

Índice de Gini (G=0.54)
1
Corrado Gini (1912)
0.8 Select the poorest people quintile and
ﬁnd the fraction of total wealth they
Fracción acumulada

0.6 have. If homogeneously distributed
they would have 20%. They have less
0.4 than that. Move to next quintile...
Measure inequality as fraction of area
0.2 not covered —zero if homogeneous,
one if only one person has it all.
Worlds Apart: Measuring International and Global Inequality. Branko
0 Milanovic. Princeton University Press (2005)
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Fracción del total de la población



Distribution of wealth paradigm
Population (millions), GNI (USD 2006), Income distribution
country GNI Pop. (mill) 10% 20% 40% 60% 80% 90%
India 820. 1131.9 3.6 8.1 19.4 34.3 54.7 68.9
China 2000. 1318.0 1.6 4.3 12.8 26.5 48.1 65.1

Namibia 3210. 2.1 0.5 1.4 4.4 9.8 21.3 35.5
Bolivia 1100. 9.8 0.3 1.5 7.4 18.3 37.0 52.8

Colombia 3120. 46.2 0.8 3.7 10.6 21.6 39.9 55.0
Brazil 4710. 189.3 0.9 2.9 9.4 20.5 39.2 55.1
Mexico 7830. 106.5 1.6 4.3 12.6 25.2 44.9 60.6
Russian Fed 5770. 141.7 2.4 6.1 16.6 31.5 53.3 69.4

Korea 17690. 48.5 2.9 7.9 21.5 39.5 62.6 77.5
Israel 20170. 7.3 2.1 5.7 16.2 32.1 55.1 71.2
Germany 36810. 82.3 3.2 8.5 22.2 40.0 63.1 77.9
UK 40560. 61.0 2.1 6.1 17.5 33.5 55.8 71.5
USA 44710. 302.2 1.9 5.4 16.1 31.8 54.2 70.1

World Development Indicators 2008. World Bank, Washington, DC.



Use two gamma probability distribution functions
F (x) = P r1 G(x, a1 , b1 ) + r2 G(x, a2 , b2 ) ;
ba a−1 −bx
G(x, a, b) = x e ,
Γ(a)
∞
xF (x)dx = GNI
0
The cumulative distribution function, A(x), is
x
A(x) = F (x )dx ;
0

and represents the fraction of the total population with income up to x. The
fraction of the global income accumulated by this fraction of the total
population, A$(x), is
x
1
A$(x) = x F (x )dx .
GNI 0

The graph of A$(x) vs. A(x) is the Lorenz curve.


The Lorenz curve
Nonlinear least squares ﬁtting

Best and worst estimations for
America (T&T and Bolivia)




World: 131 countries (26Dd, 105Dg), 6.3 billion humans.
Carlos Amador. Marx reloaded (En preparación, 2010)




Carlos Amador. Marx reloaded (En preparación, 2010)



Distribution of wealth: CO2
Clean slate; do not consider
historic CO2 production
Communitarianism vs.
Cosmopolitanism
Look at the people who
produces most CO2 wherever
they live
2030: To limit emissions in
30% a billion human beings
must reduce emissions
2030: 30P consider all human
beings reach 1tCO2 /year
emission

S. Chakravarty et al., Sharing global CO2 emission reductions
among one billion high emitters, PNAS 106, 11884 (2009)



Towards a sustainable full world

Inequality and/or sustainability
Ansatz: the probability density function that represents the income also
represents the demand for energy, fresh water, food consumption,... and
other planetary boundaries
What constitutes a reasonable quantity for the maximum wealth a
person should apply in the generation/consumption of these categories,
Wmax ?
What constitutes a minimum quantity to achieve access to basic human
needs, Wmin ?
Several different estimations allow to consider either the economic
growth necessary to improve the lot of humanity or to guarantee the
sustainability —and therefore continuity— of the current population at
the current level of civilization



Caveat lector
Elasticity: Consumption does not scale linearly with wealth. How big a
car can you have? How many computers (or jet planes) can you buy?
PPP (Purchase Power Parity) vs. International dollars: A haircut is
cheaper in developing countries...

country Pop. (mill 2007) GDP PPP (USD 2005) GNI (USD 2006)
China 1318.0 4088 2000
India 1131.9 2222 820
United States 302.2 41813 44710
Indonesia 231.6 3209 1420
Brazil 189.3 8474 4710
Pakistan 169.3 2184 800
Bangladesh 149.0 1068 450
Nigeria 144.4 1520 620
Russian Federation 141.7 11858 5770
Japan 127.7 30290 38630
México 106.5 11387 7830

World Development Indicators 2008. World Bank, Washington, DC.




Some preliminary results



Improving the lot of humanity I:

All human beings will earn at
least 2500 USD/y
4100 million people will
increase
consumption/emission
World increase will be at least
14% (if international dollars
are considered)
7% (if PPP is considered)
At 3.2% annual average
growth it is not too much



Improving the lot of humanity II:

least 11000 USD/y
5300 million people will
increase
100% (if international dollars
are considered)
75% (if PPP is considered)
It is impossible on current
technology



Guaranteeing sustainability I:

most 20000 USD/y
750 million people will need to
reduce his/her
World decrease will put us at
59% of current level
We could even have
everybody at least at 2500
USD and still go to 66% of
current level



Guaranteeing sustainability II:

most 11000 USD/y
1000 million people will need
to reduce his/her
World decrease will put us at
43% of current level
Approximately what we had
right after WWII, with more
than twice as many people



Thanks!

Leila and Laura who made this possible
Prof. Alán Aspuru-Guzik: http://aspuru.chem.harvard.edu
You may want to check: http://cleanenergy.harvard.edu
http://amador.cbsj.org (en español)
email: carlos.amador@unam.mx


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