Leadership Chapel Hill-Carrboro (Leadership) is an extensive program designed to inform, develop, connect, and engage committed and emerging leaders in Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro.
28. 2020 Orange
County Land
Distribution
Total: 398 square miles
Source: American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates, 2015-2019
[CELLRANGE]
2.5 sq mi
0.6%
[CELLRAN
GE]
6.5 sq…
[CELLRANGE]
20.1 sq mi
5.0%
[CELLRANGE]
5.7 sq mi
1.4%
[CELLRANGE]
362.8 sq mi 91%
40. Fastest Growth in Triangle, Charlotte, Wilmington
Population growth rate (%) for NC counties, 2010-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
41. Chapel Hill and Carrboro Grow Less Than 1% Per
Year, Hillsborough Averages 4.6% 2010 to 2020
2010 and 2020 population totals, growth rate over the decade, as well local annual growth rates
Source: US Census Bureau
2010 2020
Percent Growth
2010 to 2020
Annual Growth
Rate
Orange County 133,801 148,696 11% 1.1%
Hillsborough 6,087 9,660 59% 4.6%
Carrboro 19,582 21,295 9% 0.8%
Chapel Hill 57,233 61,960 8% 0.8%
Chatham County 63,505 76,285 20% 1.8%
North Carolina 9,535,483 10,439,388 9% 0.9%
42. 2020 County Population Totals
76,285
148,696
171,415
324,833
1,129,410
Chatham County
Orange County
Alamance County
Durham County
Wake County
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
43. Chatham 3rd Fastest-Growing Among Peer Counties
Percentage population growth 2010-2020
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
25%
21%
20%
13%
11%
9%
Wake County
Durham County
Chatham County
Alamance County
Orange County
North Carolina
44. Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham County
Numeric population growth, 2010-2020
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
12,780
14,895
20,284
57,246
228,417
903,905
Chatham County
Orange County
Alamance County
Durham County
Wake County
North Carolina
45. 2020 Local Municipal Population Totals
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
61,960
59,054
21,295
17,797
9,660
4,537
3,171
Chapel Hill (Total)
Chapel Hill (Orange County)
Carrboro
Mebane (Total)
Hillsborough
Pittsboro
Mebane (Orange County)
46. Orange County 2010s Population Increases on Par
with Growth in the 1960s
Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
1,901
11,363
8,535
14,737
19,348
16,796
24,376
15,574 14,895
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
47. 2010s Orange County’s Second-Slowest Decade of
Growth Since the 1930s
Percent population increase by decade, 1930-2020
9%
49%
25%
34% 34%
22%
26%
13% 11%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
48. Chatham County Decennial Population Growth
Second Largest Ever
Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020
549 666 1,393
2,769
3,861
5,344
10,570
14,176
12,780
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
49. 2010s Chatham County’s Third-Fastest Decade of
Growth
Percent population increase by decade, 1930-2020
2% 3%
5%
10%
13%
16%
27% 29%
20%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
50. 2010s Carrboro’s Smallest Numeric Growth Since
1970s
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
2,278
4,798 4,648
2,800
1,710
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
51. Decennial Population Growth in Carrboro Less than
10 Percent
Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020
45%
65%
38%
17%
9%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
52. 2010s Chapel Hill’s Slowest Decade of Population Growth
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
6,222 6,290
7,308
11,214
4,554
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
53. 2010s Slowest-Growing Decade for Chapel Hill Since 1970s
Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020
24%
19% 19%
24%
8%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
54. Hillsborough’s 2010s Population Growth Twice as
Large as any Previous Decade
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
1,575
1,244 1,183
641
3,053
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
55. Hillsborough Population Grows 59% in the 2010s
Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
109%
41%
28%
12%
59%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
57. Majority of Orange County Growth from Migration
Components of Orange County’s estimated 15,385-person growth, 2010-2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates
15,385
12,291
-8,180
5,249 5,994
Total Change Births Deaths Domestic
Migration
International
Migration
Note: The difference between total change and the sum of the individual components of change is known as the "residual." It is not shown here.
58. Domestic Migration Drives Growth in Chatham County
Components of Chatham County’s estimated 12,262-person growth, 2010-2019
Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates
12,262
6,512
-6,940
12,619
-1
Total Change Births Deaths Domestic
Migration
International
Migration
Note: The difference between total change and the sum of the individual components of change is known as the "residual." It is not shown here.
69. -1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Black
Other
Hispanic
Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
71. Orange County Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial makeup by decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
80% 76% 71% 65%
16%
14%
12%
10%
4% 8%
11%
3% 4% 7%
8%
2% 3% 6%
1990 2000 2010 2020
All Other Races
Asian
Hispanic
Black
White
Values less than
1% not labeled
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
72. Orange Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
14,847 16,175 15,722 15,571
5,273
11,017 15,812
4,860
9,031
12,615
3,360
8,161
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
73. Chatham Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
8,794 8,355 8,272 7,768
4,743
8,228
10,372
709
1,616
3,442
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
74. Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
4,840 5,517 5,460 5,848
1,564 3,638 4,734
3,508
6,786
9,294
3,406
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
75. Carrboro Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
1,916 2,231 1,933 2,142
2,062 2,706 2,723
862
1,592
1,891
557
1,301
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
76. Hillsborough Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
1,660 1,893 1,777 1,786
404
987
218
593
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
77. State and County Minority Make-Up (2020)
21%
11% 12%
10%
9%
12%
3%
8%
2%
3% 3% 2%
North Carolina Orange County Chatham County
Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
*includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
78. Municipality Minority Make-Up (2020)
9% 10%
18%
8%
13%
10%
15%
9%
2%
5% 6% 6%
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
*includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
80. Three Models for Projecting Growth
Source: Decennial Census
Exponential
(2010-2020)
Linear
(1990-2010)
Linear
(2010-2020)
Orange 1.1% 1,998 people 1,490 people
Chatham 1.8% 1,237 people 1,278 people
Carrboro 0.8% 372 people 171 people
Chapel Hill 0.8% 926 people 473 people
Hillsborough 4.6% 91 people 357 people
81. Orange County Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
228,596
208,276
148,696
226,808
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
82. Chatham County Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
76,285 125,777
127,405
158,842
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
83. Hillsborough Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
13,308
23,952
9,660
61,273
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
84. Chapel Hill Less Dense in 2040 Than Peer College
Towns in 2020
Population per square mile, 2020
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
4,544
4,392
4,339
4,112
3,408
3,391
3,309
3,289
2,871
Charlottesville (VA)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Burlington (VT)
Boulder (CO)
Bloomington (IN)
Madison (WI)
2040 Chapel Hill
Carrboro
2020 Chapel Hill
86. Orange County Highest Per Capita Income in State
Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 2019
Orange (1), $42,231
Wake (2), $40,982
Chatham (3), $40,967
Durham (6), $35,398
Alamance (37), $27,312
Hyde (100), $18,245
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Orange
County,
NC
Wake
County,
NC
Chatham
County,
NC
Mecklenburg
County,
NC
Union
County,
NC
Durham
County,
NC
Moore
County,
NC
Dare
County,
NC
New
Hanover
County,
NC
Carteret
County,
NC
Brunswick
County,
NC
Iredell
County,
NC
Buncombe
County,
NC
Cabarrus
County,
NC
Currituck
County,
NC
Lincoln
County,
NC
Henderson
County,
NC
Davie
County,
NC
Forsyth
County,
NC
Guilford
County,
NC
Polk
County,
NC
Haywood
County,
NC
Transylvania
County,
NC
Craven
County,
NC
Pender
County,
NC
Pamlico
County,
NC
Macon
County,
NC
Clay
County,
NC
Catawba
County,
NC
Camden
County,
NC
Johnston
County,
NC
Perquimans
County,
NC
Beaufort
County,
NC
Nash
County,
NC
Gaston
County,
NC
Person
County,
NC
Alamance
County,
NC
Franklin
County,
NC
Pitt
County,
NC
Granville
County,
NC
Watauga
County,
NC
Alexander
County,
NC
Stokes
County,
NC
Chowan
County,
NC
Davidson
County,
NC
Madison
County,
NC
Stanly
County,
NC
Gates
County,
NC
Rowan
County,
NC
Surry
County,
NC
Jackson
County,
NC
Wayne
County,
NC
Yadkin
County,
NC
Wilkes
County,
NC
Mitchell
County,
NC
Cumberland
County,
NC
Lee
County,
NC
Ashe
County,
NC
Wilson
County,
NC
Pasquotank
County,
NC
Montgomery
County,
NC
Yancey
County,
NC
Burke
County,
NC
Onslow
County,
NC
Randolph
County,
NC
McDowell
County,
NC
Rockingham
County,
NC
Rutherford
County,
NC
Cherokee
County,
NC
Caswell
County,
NC
Caldwell
County,
NC
Lenoir
County,
NC
Harnett
County,
NC
Martin
County,
NC
Bladen
County,
NC
Warren
County,
NC
Washington
County,
NC
Alleghany
County,
NC
Swain
County,
NC
Vance
County,
NC
Bertie
County,
NC
Sampson
County,
NC
Columbus
County,
NC
Cleveland
County,
NC
Northampton
County,
NC
Jones
County,
NC
Halifax
County,
NC
Anson
County,
NC
Richmond
County,
NC
Avery
County,
NC
Hoke
County,
NC
Edgecombe
County,
NC
Graham
County,
NC
Duplin
County,
NC
Hertford
County,
NC
Tyrrell
County,
NC
Greene
County,
NC
Scotland
County,
NC
Robeson
County,
NC
Hyde
County,
NC
87. Wake Leads, Orange 2nd in Regional Median
Household Income in 2019
Household Income is the total annual earnings of all members of a household, whether they are a family or
separate individuals living together (Distinct from Median Family Income and Per Capita Income)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
$74,314 $70,258 $65,541
$57,963
$84,377
$57,388
$65,712
Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Wake North
Carolina
United
States
90. Orange County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
48,116 drive in, 38,088 drive out, and 19,965 live and work in Orange County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
91. Where do Orange County’s 68,081 Workers Live?
Orange County workers by county of residence, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
19,965
[CELLRANGE],
13,231
[CELLRANGE],
10,177
[CELLRANGE],
6,900
[CELLRANGE],
4,607
[CELLRANGE],
1,364
[CELLRANGE], 891
[CELLRANGE], 862
[CELLRANGE], 811
[CELLRANGE], 588
[CELLRANGE],
8,685
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Chatham
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Person
Forsyth
All Other Locations
92. 3,972 More Orange County Workers Commuting
from Wake County than in 2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
-1,875
1,792
3,972
1,226
565
359
450
40
236
112
2,032
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Chatham
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Person
Forsyth
All Other Locations
Change in number of Orange County workers’ county of residence from 2008-2018
93. Where do Orange County’s 59,053 Working Residents Go
to Work?
Location of primary job for Orange County residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
19,965
[CELLRANGE],
14,734
[CELLRANGE],
9,133
[CELLRANGE],
2,526
[CELLRANGE],
1,841
[CELLRANGE],
1,730
[CELLRANGE],
771
[CELLRANGE],
528
[CELLRANGE],
308
.5%, 290
[CELLRANGE],
6,227
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Guilford
Mecklenburg
Chatham
Forsyth
Cumberland
New Hanover
All Other Locations
94. Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
43,336 drive in, 14,558 drive out, and 6,448 live and work in Chapel Hill
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
95. Chapel Hill workers by county of residence, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
16,245
[CELLRANGE],
9,687
[CELLRANGE],
5,448
[CELLRANGE],
3,600
[CELLRANGE],
3,009
[CELLRANGE],
638
[CELLRANGE],
319
[CELLRANGE],
691
[CELLRANGE],
370
[CELLRANGE],
265 [CELLRANGE],
4,358
Orange
Durham
Wake
Chatham
Alamance
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Forsyth
Person
All Other Locations
Where do Chapel Hill’s 49,784 Workers Live?
96. Where do Chapel Hill’s 21,006 Working Residents Go
To Work?
Location of primary job for Chapel Hill residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
7,329
[CELLRANGE],
5,178
[CELLRANGE],
3,449
[CELLRANGE],
755
[CELLRANGE],
649
[CELLRANGE],
411
[CELLRANGE],
291
[CELLRANGE],
238
[CELLRANGE],
129
[CELLRANGE],
120 [CELLRANGE],
2,457
Orange
Durham
Wake
Mecklenburg
Guilford
Alamance
Chatham
Forsyth
Cumberland
New Hanover
All Other Locations
97. Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
4,345 drive in, 9,187 drive out, and 657 live and work in Carrboro
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
98. Where do Carrboro’s 9,174 Working Residents Go To
Work?
Location of primary job for Carrboro residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
4,052
[CELLRANGE],
1,853
[CELLRANGE],
1,370
[CELLRANGE],
238
[CELLRANGE],
233
[CELLRANGE],
215
[CELLRANGE],
203
[CELLRANGE], 79
.5%, 42
.4%, 41
[CELLRANGE],
848
Orange
Durham
Wake
Mecklenburg
Guilford
Alamance
Chatham
Forsyth
Lee
Cumberland
All Other Locations
99. Chatham County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
10,785 drive in, 24,687 drive out, and 6,057 live and work in Chatham
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
100. Where do Chatham County’s 28,616 Working Residents Work?
Location of primary job for Chatham County residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
6,571
[CELLRANGE],
5,566
[CELLRANGE],
4,607
[CELLRANGE],
3,680
[CELLRANGE],
1,202
[CELLRANGE],
967
[CELLRANGE],
951
[CELLRANGE],
854
[CELLRANGE],
764
[CELLRANGE],
278 [CELLRANGE],
3,176
Wake
Chatham
Orange
Durham
Lee
Guilford
Randolph
Mecklenburg
Alamance
Forsyth
All Other Locations
101. Majority of Orange and Chatham Residents Work Outside
the County They Live In
Percent of residents commuting outside of the county for work, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
66% 81%
of Orange County
Residents Commute Out
of Chatham County
Residents Commute Out
102. Most County Jobs Filled by In-Commuters
Percent of county jobs filled by in-commuters, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
71%
of Orange County Jobs
Filled by In-Commuters
63%
of Chatham County
Jobs Filled by In-
Commuters
105. Trivia
• Counties named for Women
- Mary Wake
- Charlotte of Mecklenburg
- Virginia Dare
- Perquimans (Land of the Beautiful Women)
106. Trivia
• Counties named for Women
- Mary Wake
- Charlotte of Mecklenburg
- Virginia Dare
- Perquimans (Land of the Beautiful Women)
• Counties names for indigenous people, I would say..
- Catawba
- Cherokee
- Chowan
- Pamlico
- Perquimans
(the Yeopim were later called the Perquiman)
Notas del editor
Add actual number to notes
In 2019 demographers were predicting only a 9% decennial population increase
*All other includes American-Indian, multi-racial, & other races
*All other includes American-Indian, multi-racial, & other races
*All other includes American-Indian, multi-racial, & other races
2017: 46164 drive in, 37,073 drive out, and 19,953 live and work in Orange County
2017: 41,779 drive in, 14,008 drive out, and 6,627 live and work in Chapel Hill(Alone)
72% outside of orange county
2017: 3,666 drive in, 8,561 drive out, and 571 live and work in Carrboro
2017: 9,375 drive in, 21,897 drive out, and 5,140 live and work in Chatham