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Leadership Chapel Hill-
Carrboro 2023
Session 3
Geography, History,
Demography
The Research Triangle
Region
Research Triangle Region
The Triangle: Wake, Durham, and Orange Counties
Research Triangle Regional Partnership
Data Gathering and
Reporting
Durham-Chapel Hill Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA)
Raleigh-Cary Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
Raleigh-Durham-Cary Combined Statistical Area (CSA)
Regional Planning
Triangle J Council of Government (TJ COG)
DCHC- Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO)
Capital Area MPO
NC Department of Transportation (DOT) Districts
Workforce Development
&
Workforce Investment
Boards
Workforce Development Boards
NC Workforce Development Boards
Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
Orange
County Total
Value Per
Acre
Source: Urban 3
Click to add text
Assessed Value
Per Acre
Southern
Orange
County
Planning
Jurisdictions
Town of Chapel Hill
2020 Orange
County Land
Distribution
Total: 398 square miles
Source: American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates, 2015-2019
[CELLRANGE]
2.5 sq mi
0.6%
[CELLRAN
GE]
6.5 sq…
[CELLRANGE]
20.1 sq mi
5.0%
[CELLRANGE]
5.7 sq mi
1.4%
[CELLRANGE]
362.8 sq mi 91%
2020 Orange
County
Housing
Distribution
61,211 total housing units
Source: 2020 Census
[CELLRANGE]
928
2%
[CELLRANGE]
9,985
16%
[CELLRANGE]
20,611
36%
[CELLRANGE]
3,049 7%
[CELLRANGE]
16,561
39%
Trivia
4 + 5
Government
Government
Town Council
Town Board of Commissioners
Aldermen
County Commissioners
NC General Assembly
NC House of Representative
NC Senate
Federal
Government
Policing
Fire
Property Tax
Sales Tax
Income Tax
Regulating
Local
State
Quazi-Government
OWASA
RDU Airport Authority
Chapel Hill Transit Partners
WASAMBA
A Little History
University
Carrboro
Chapel Hill
Hillsborough
And Now, Some Data
Just a Word About Data…
Population Growth
Fastest Growth in Triangle, Charlotte, Wilmington
Population growth rate (%) for NC counties, 2010-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
Chapel Hill and Carrboro Grow Less Than 1% Per
Year, Hillsborough Averages 4.6% 2010 to 2020
2010 and 2020 population totals, growth rate over the decade, as well local annual growth rates
Source: US Census Bureau
2010 2020
Percent Growth
2010 to 2020
Annual Growth
Rate
Orange County 133,801 148,696 11% 1.1%
Hillsborough 6,087 9,660 59% 4.6%
Carrboro 19,582 21,295 9% 0.8%
Chapel Hill 57,233 61,960 8% 0.8%
Chatham County 63,505 76,285 20% 1.8%
North Carolina 9,535,483 10,439,388 9% 0.9%
2020 County Population Totals
76,285
148,696
171,415
324,833
1,129,410
Chatham County
Orange County
Alamance County
Durham County
Wake County
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Chatham 3rd Fastest-Growing Among Peer Counties
Percentage population growth 2010-2020
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
25%
21%
20%
13%
11%
9%
Wake County
Durham County
Chatham County
Alamance County
Orange County
North Carolina
Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham County
Numeric population growth, 2010-2020
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
12,780
14,895
20,284
57,246
228,417
903,905
Chatham County
Orange County
Alamance County
Durham County
Wake County
North Carolina
2020 Local Municipal Population Totals
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
61,960
59,054
21,295
17,797
9,660
4,537
3,171
Chapel Hill (Total)
Chapel Hill (Orange County)
Carrboro
Mebane (Total)
Hillsborough
Pittsboro
Mebane (Orange County)
Orange County 2010s Population Increases on Par
with Growth in the 1960s
Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
1,901
11,363
8,535
14,737
19,348
16,796
24,376
15,574 14,895
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
2010s Orange County’s Second-Slowest Decade of
Growth Since the 1930s
Percent population increase by decade, 1930-2020
9%
49%
25%
34% 34%
22%
26%
13% 11%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Chatham County Decennial Population Growth
Second Largest Ever
Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020
549 666 1,393
2,769
3,861
5,344
10,570
14,176
12,780
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
2010s Chatham County’s Third-Fastest Decade of
Growth
Percent population increase by decade, 1930-2020
2% 3%
5%
10%
13%
16%
27% 29%
20%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
2010s Carrboro’s Smallest Numeric Growth Since
1970s
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
2,278
4,798 4,648
2,800
1,710
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Decennial Population Growth in Carrboro Less than
10 Percent
Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020
45%
65%
38%
17%
9%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
2010s Chapel Hill’s Slowest Decade of Population Growth
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
6,222 6,290
7,308
11,214
4,554
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
2010s Slowest-Growing Decade for Chapel Hill Since 1970s
Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020
24%
19% 19%
24%
8%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Hillsborough’s 2010s Population Growth Twice as
Large as any Previous Decade
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
1,575
1,244 1,183
641
3,053
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Hillsborough Population Grows 59% in the 2010s
Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
109%
41%
28%
12%
59%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Components of
Population Change
Majority of Orange County Growth from Migration
Components of Orange County’s estimated 15,385-person growth, 2010-2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates
15,385
12,291
-8,180
5,249 5,994
Total Change Births Deaths Domestic
Migration
International
Migration
Note: The difference between total change and the sum of the individual components of change is known as the "residual." It is not shown here.
Domestic Migration Drives Growth in Chatham County
Components of Chatham County’s estimated 12,262-person growth, 2010-2019
Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates
12,262
6,512
-6,940
12,619
-1
Total Change Births Deaths Domestic
Migration
International
Migration
Note: The difference between total change and the sum of the individual components of change is known as the "residual." It is not shown here.
Migration
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Orange
Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Orange
Pitt
Watauga
Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Youth Drain
Halifax
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Employment Center
Wake
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Family Suburbs
Johnston
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Chatham
Retiree Destinations
Chatham
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Orange
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
White
Black
Other
Hispanic
Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Number
of
People
Age
Black
Other
Hispanic
Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
Race and Ethnicity
Orange County Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial makeup by decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
80% 76% 71% 65%
16%
14%
12%
10%
4% 8%
11%
3% 4% 7%
8%
2% 3% 6%
1990 2000 2010 2020
All Other Races
Asian
Hispanic
Black
White
Values less than
1% not labeled
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
Orange Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
14,847 16,175 15,722 15,571
5,273
11,017 15,812
4,860
9,031
12,615
3,360
8,161
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
Chatham Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
8,794 8,355 8,272 7,768
4,743
8,228
10,372
709
1,616
3,442
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
4,840 5,517 5,460 5,848
1,564 3,638 4,734
3,508
6,786
9,294
3,406
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
Carrboro Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
1,916 2,231 1,933 2,142
2,062 2,706 2,723
862
1,592
1,891
557
1,301
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
Hillsborough Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade
1,660 1,893 1,777 1,786
404
987
218
593
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
State and County Minority Make-Up (2020)
21%
11% 12%
10%
9%
12%
3%
8%
2%
3% 3% 2%
North Carolina Orange County Chatham County
Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
*includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
Municipality Minority Make-Up (2020)
9% 10%
18%
8%
13%
10%
15%
9%
2%
5% 6% 6%
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
*includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
Population Projections
Three Models for Projecting Growth
Source: Decennial Census
Exponential
(2010-2020)
Linear
(1990-2010)
Linear
(2010-2020)
Orange 1.1% 1,998 people 1,490 people
Chatham 1.8% 1,237 people 1,278 people
Carrboro 0.8% 372 people 171 people
Chapel Hill 0.8% 926 people 473 people
Hillsborough 4.6% 91 people 357 people
Orange County Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
228,596
208,276
148,696
226,808
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
Chatham County Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
76,285 125,777
127,405
158,842
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
Hillsborough Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
13,308
23,952
9,660
61,273
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
Chapel Hill Less Dense in 2040 Than Peer College
Towns in 2020
Population per square mile, 2020
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
4,544
4,392
4,339
4,112
3,408
3,391
3,309
3,289
2,871
Charlottesville (VA)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Burlington (VT)
Boulder (CO)
Bloomington (IN)
Madison (WI)
2040 Chapel Hill
Carrboro
2020 Chapel Hill
Income
Orange County Highest Per Capita Income in State
Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 2019
Orange (1), $42,231
Wake (2), $40,982
Chatham (3), $40,967
Durham (6), $35,398
Alamance (37), $27,312
Hyde (100), $18,245
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Orange
County,
NC
Wake
County,
NC
Chatham
County,
NC
Mecklenburg
County,
NC
Union
County,
NC
Durham
County,
NC
Moore
County,
NC
Dare
County,
NC
New
Hanover
County,
NC
Carteret
County,
NC
Brunswick
County,
NC
Iredell
County,
NC
Buncombe
County,
NC
Cabarrus
County,
NC
Currituck
County,
NC
Lincoln
County,
NC
Henderson
County,
NC
Davie
County,
NC
Forsyth
County,
NC
Guilford
County,
NC
Polk
County,
NC
Haywood
County,
NC
Transylvania
County,
NC
Craven
County,
NC
Pender
County,
NC
Pamlico
County,
NC
Macon
County,
NC
Clay
County,
NC
Catawba
County,
NC
Camden
County,
NC
Johnston
County,
NC
Perquimans
County,
NC
Beaufort
County,
NC
Nash
County,
NC
Gaston
County,
NC
Person
County,
NC
Alamance
County,
NC
Franklin
County,
NC
Pitt
County,
NC
Granville
County,
NC
Watauga
County,
NC
Alexander
County,
NC
Stokes
County,
NC
Chowan
County,
NC
Davidson
County,
NC
Madison
County,
NC
Stanly
County,
NC
Gates
County,
NC
Rowan
County,
NC
Surry
County,
NC
Jackson
County,
NC
Wayne
County,
NC
Yadkin
County,
NC
Wilkes
County,
NC
Mitchell
County,
NC
Cumberland
County,
NC
Lee
County,
NC
Ashe
County,
NC
Wilson
County,
NC
Pasquotank
County,
NC
Montgomery
County,
NC
Yancey
County,
NC
Burke
County,
NC
Onslow
County,
NC
Randolph
County,
NC
McDowell
County,
NC
Rockingham
County,
NC
Rutherford
County,
NC
Cherokee
County,
NC
Caswell
County,
NC
Caldwell
County,
NC
Lenoir
County,
NC
Harnett
County,
NC
Martin
County,
NC
Bladen
County,
NC
Warren
County,
NC
Washington
County,
NC
Alleghany
County,
NC
Swain
County,
NC
Vance
County,
NC
Bertie
County,
NC
Sampson
County,
NC
Columbus
County,
NC
Cleveland
County,
NC
Northampton
County,
NC
Jones
County,
NC
Halifax
County,
NC
Anson
County,
NC
Richmond
County,
NC
Avery
County,
NC
Hoke
County,
NC
Edgecombe
County,
NC
Graham
County,
NC
Duplin
County,
NC
Hertford
County,
NC
Tyrrell
County,
NC
Greene
County,
NC
Scotland
County,
NC
Robeson
County,
NC
Hyde
County,
NC
Wake Leads, Orange 2nd in Regional Median
Household Income in 2019
Household Income is the total annual earnings of all members of a household, whether they are a family or
separate individuals living together (Distinct from Median Family Income and Per Capita Income)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
$74,314 $70,258 $65,541
$57,963
$84,377
$57,388
$65,712
Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Wake North
Carolina
United
States
Commuting
Worker Inflow, Outflow, and
Commuting
Orange County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
48,116 drive in, 38,088 drive out, and 19,965 live and work in Orange County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Where do Orange County’s 68,081 Workers Live?
Orange County workers by county of residence, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
19,965
[CELLRANGE],
13,231
[CELLRANGE],
10,177
[CELLRANGE],
6,900
[CELLRANGE],
4,607
[CELLRANGE],
1,364
[CELLRANGE], 891
[CELLRANGE], 862
[CELLRANGE], 811
[CELLRANGE], 588
[CELLRANGE],
8,685
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Chatham
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Person
Forsyth
All Other Locations
3,972 More Orange County Workers Commuting
from Wake County than in 2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
-1,875
1,792
3,972
1,226
565
359
450
40
236
112
2,032
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Chatham
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Person
Forsyth
All Other Locations
Change in number of Orange County workers’ county of residence from 2008-2018
Where do Orange County’s 59,053 Working Residents Go
to Work?
Location of primary job for Orange County residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
19,965
[CELLRANGE],
14,734
[CELLRANGE],
9,133
[CELLRANGE],
2,526
[CELLRANGE],
1,841
[CELLRANGE],
1,730
[CELLRANGE],
771
[CELLRANGE],
528
[CELLRANGE],
308
.5%, 290
[CELLRANGE],
6,227
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Guilford
Mecklenburg
Chatham
Forsyth
Cumberland
New Hanover
All Other Locations
Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
43,336 drive in, 14,558 drive out, and 6,448 live and work in Chapel Hill
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Chapel Hill workers by county of residence, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
16,245
[CELLRANGE],
9,687
[CELLRANGE],
5,448
[CELLRANGE],
3,600
[CELLRANGE],
3,009
[CELLRANGE],
638
[CELLRANGE],
319
[CELLRANGE],
691
[CELLRANGE],
370
[CELLRANGE],
265 [CELLRANGE],
4,358
Orange
Durham
Wake
Chatham
Alamance
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Forsyth
Person
All Other Locations
Where do Chapel Hill’s 49,784 Workers Live?
Where do Chapel Hill’s 21,006 Working Residents Go
To Work?
Location of primary job for Chapel Hill residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
7,329
[CELLRANGE],
5,178
[CELLRANGE],
3,449
[CELLRANGE],
755
[CELLRANGE],
649
[CELLRANGE],
411
[CELLRANGE],
291
[CELLRANGE],
238
[CELLRANGE],
129
[CELLRANGE],
120 [CELLRANGE],
2,457
Orange
Durham
Wake
Mecklenburg
Guilford
Alamance
Chatham
Forsyth
Cumberland
New Hanover
All Other Locations
Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
4,345 drive in, 9,187 drive out, and 657 live and work in Carrboro
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Where do Carrboro’s 9,174 Working Residents Go To
Work?
Location of primary job for Carrboro residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
4,052
[CELLRANGE],
1,853
[CELLRANGE],
1,370
[CELLRANGE],
238
[CELLRANGE],
233
[CELLRANGE],
215
[CELLRANGE],
203
[CELLRANGE], 79
.5%, 42
.4%, 41
[CELLRANGE],
848
Orange
Durham
Wake
Mecklenburg
Guilford
Alamance
Chatham
Forsyth
Lee
Cumberland
All Other Locations
Chatham County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
10,785 drive in, 24,687 drive out, and 6,057 live and work in Chatham
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Where do Chatham County’s 28,616 Working Residents Work?
Location of primary job for Chatham County residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
[CELLRANGE],
6,571
[CELLRANGE],
5,566
[CELLRANGE],
4,607
[CELLRANGE],
3,680
[CELLRANGE],
1,202
[CELLRANGE],
967
[CELLRANGE],
951
[CELLRANGE],
854
[CELLRANGE],
764
[CELLRANGE],
278 [CELLRANGE],
3,176
Wake
Chatham
Orange
Durham
Lee
Guilford
Randolph
Mecklenburg
Alamance
Forsyth
All Other Locations
Majority of Orange and Chatham Residents Work Outside
the County They Live In
Percent of residents commuting outside of the county for work, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
66% 81%
of Orange County
Residents Commute Out
of Chatham County
Residents Commute Out
Most County Jobs Filled by In-Commuters
Percent of county jobs filled by in-commuters, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
71%
of Orange County Jobs
Filled by In-Commuters
63%
of Chatham County
Jobs Filled by In-
Commuters
Let’s Stop There for Now
Trivia
• Counties named for Women
Trivia
• Counties named for Women
- Mary Wake
- Charlotte of Mecklenburg
- Virginia Dare
- Perquimans (Land of the Beautiful Women)
Trivia
• Counties named for Women
- Mary Wake
- Charlotte of Mecklenburg
- Virginia Dare
- Perquimans (Land of the Beautiful Women)
• Counties names for indigenous people, I would say..
- Catawba
- Cherokee
- Chowan
- Pamlico
- Perquimans
(the Yeopim were later called the Perquiman)

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Leadership 2023, Session 3 - History, Geography, and Governance

  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 7.
  • 8. The Triangle: Wake, Durham, and Orange Counties
  • 11. Durham-Chapel Hill Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
  • 15. Triangle J Council of Government (TJ COG)
  • 16. DCHC- Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO)
  • 18. NC Department of Transportation (DOT) Districts
  • 22. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
  • 23.
  • 24. Orange County Total Value Per Acre Source: Urban 3 Click to add text
  • 25.
  • 28. 2020 Orange County Land Distribution Total: 398 square miles Source: American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates, 2015-2019 [CELLRANGE] 2.5 sq mi 0.6% [CELLRAN GE] 6.5 sq… [CELLRANGE] 20.1 sq mi 5.0% [CELLRANGE] 5.7 sq mi 1.4% [CELLRANGE] 362.8 sq mi 91%
  • 29. 2020 Orange County Housing Distribution 61,211 total housing units Source: 2020 Census [CELLRANGE] 928 2% [CELLRANGE] 9,985 16% [CELLRANGE] 20,611 36% [CELLRANGE] 3,049 7% [CELLRANGE] 16,561 39%
  • 32. Government Town Council Town Board of Commissioners Aldermen County Commissioners NC General Assembly NC House of Representative NC Senate Federal
  • 37. Just a Word About Data…
  • 38.
  • 40. Fastest Growth in Triangle, Charlotte, Wilmington Population growth rate (%) for NC counties, 2010-2020 Source: US Census Bureau
  • 41. Chapel Hill and Carrboro Grow Less Than 1% Per Year, Hillsborough Averages 4.6% 2010 to 2020 2010 and 2020 population totals, growth rate over the decade, as well local annual growth rates Source: US Census Bureau 2010 2020 Percent Growth 2010 to 2020 Annual Growth Rate Orange County 133,801 148,696 11% 1.1% Hillsborough 6,087 9,660 59% 4.6% Carrboro 19,582 21,295 9% 0.8% Chapel Hill 57,233 61,960 8% 0.8% Chatham County 63,505 76,285 20% 1.8% North Carolina 9,535,483 10,439,388 9% 0.9%
  • 42. 2020 County Population Totals 76,285 148,696 171,415 324,833 1,129,410 Chatham County Orange County Alamance County Durham County Wake County Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 43. Chatham 3rd Fastest-Growing Among Peer Counties Percentage population growth 2010-2020 Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census 25% 21% 20% 13% 11% 9% Wake County Durham County Chatham County Alamance County Orange County North Carolina
  • 44. Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham County Numeric population growth, 2010-2020 Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census 12,780 14,895 20,284 57,246 228,417 903,905 Chatham County Orange County Alamance County Durham County Wake County North Carolina
  • 45. 2020 Local Municipal Population Totals Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census 61,960 59,054 21,295 17,797 9,660 4,537 3,171 Chapel Hill (Total) Chapel Hill (Orange County) Carrboro Mebane (Total) Hillsborough Pittsboro Mebane (Orange County)
  • 46. Orange County 2010s Population Increases on Par with Growth in the 1960s Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020 Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census 1,901 11,363 8,535 14,737 19,348 16,796 24,376 15,574 14,895 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
  • 47. 2010s Orange County’s Second-Slowest Decade of Growth Since the 1930s Percent population increase by decade, 1930-2020 9% 49% 25% 34% 34% 22% 26% 13% 11% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 48. Chatham County Decennial Population Growth Second Largest Ever Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 12,780 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 49. 2010s Chatham County’s Third-Fastest Decade of Growth Percent population increase by decade, 1930-2020 2% 3% 5% 10% 13% 16% 27% 29% 20% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 50. 2010s Carrboro’s Smallest Numeric Growth Since 1970s Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020 2,278 4,798 4,648 2,800 1,710 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 51. Decennial Population Growth in Carrboro Less than 10 Percent Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020 45% 65% 38% 17% 9% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 52. 2010s Chapel Hill’s Slowest Decade of Population Growth Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020 6,222 6,290 7,308 11,214 4,554 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 53. 2010s Slowest-Growing Decade for Chapel Hill Since 1970s Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020 24% 19% 19% 24% 8% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 54. Hillsborough’s 2010s Population Growth Twice as Large as any Previous Decade Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020 1,575 1,244 1,183 641 3,053 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census
  • 55. Hillsborough Population Grows 59% in the 2010s Percent population increase by decade, 1970-2020 Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census 109% 41% 28% 12% 59% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
  • 57. Majority of Orange County Growth from Migration Components of Orange County’s estimated 15,385-person growth, 2010-2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates 15,385 12,291 -8,180 5,249 5,994 Total Change Births Deaths Domestic Migration International Migration Note: The difference between total change and the sum of the individual components of change is known as the "residual." It is not shown here.
  • 58. Domestic Migration Drives Growth in Chatham County Components of Chatham County’s estimated 12,262-person growth, 2010-2019 Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates 12,262 6,512 -6,940 12,619 -1 Total Change Births Deaths Domestic Migration International Migration Note: The difference between total change and the sum of the individual components of change is known as the "residual." It is not shown here.
  • 60. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 61. -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 62. -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age Orange Pitt Watauga Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 63. -1,400 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age Youth Drain Halifax Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 64. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age Employment Center Wake Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 65. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age Family Suburbs Johnston Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 66. -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age Chatham Retiree Destinations Chatham Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 67. -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 68. -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age White Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 69. -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of People Age Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 71. Orange County Population by Race/Ethnicity Changes in racial makeup by decade Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census 80% 76% 71% 65% 16% 14% 12% 10% 4% 8% 11% 3% 4% 7% 8% 2% 3% 6% 1990 2000 2010 2020 All Other Races Asian Hispanic Black White Values less than 1% not labeled Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
  • 72. Orange Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census 14,847 16,175 15,722 15,571 5,273 11,017 15,812 4,860 9,031 12,615 3,360 8,161 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
  • 73. Chatham Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade 8,794 8,355 8,272 7,768 4,743 8,228 10,372 709 1,616 3,442 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
  • 74. Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census 4,840 5,517 5,460 5,848 1,564 3,638 4,734 3,508 6,786 9,294 3,406 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
  • 75. Carrboro Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade 1,916 2,231 1,933 2,142 2,062 2,706 2,723 862 1,592 1,891 557 1,301 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
  • 76. Hillsborough Minority Population by Race/Ethnicity Changes in racial/ethnic makeup by decade 1,660 1,893 1,777 1,786 404 987 218 593 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 Black Hispanic Asian All Other Races Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Note: All Other Races includes American Indian, Other race, and Multiracial.
  • 77. State and County Minority Make-Up (2020) 21% 11% 12% 10% 9% 12% 3% 8% 2% 3% 3% 2% North Carolina Orange County Chatham County Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other* Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census *includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
  • 78. Municipality Minority Make-Up (2020) 9% 10% 18% 8% 13% 10% 15% 9% 2% 5% 6% 6% Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other* Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census *includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
  • 80. Three Models for Projecting Growth Source: Decennial Census Exponential (2010-2020) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Orange 1.1% 1,998 people 1,490 people Chatham 1.8% 1,237 people 1,278 people Carrboro 0.8% 372 people 171 people Chapel Hill 0.8% 926 people 473 people Hillsborough 4.6% 91 people 357 people
  • 81. Orange County Population Projections Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 228,596 208,276 148,696 226,808 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2020 actual 2030 2040 2050 2060 Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
  • 82. Chatham County Population Projections Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 76,285 125,777 127,405 158,842 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 2020 actual 2030 2040 2050 2060 Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
  • 83. Hillsborough Population Projections Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 13,308 23,952 9,660 61,273 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 2020 actual 2030 2040 2050 2060 Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
  • 84. Chapel Hill Less Dense in 2040 Than Peer College Towns in 2020 Population per square mile, 2020 Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 4,544 4,392 4,339 4,112 3,408 3,391 3,309 3,289 2,871 Charlottesville (VA) Ann Arbor (MI) Burlington (VT) Boulder (CO) Bloomington (IN) Madison (WI) 2040 Chapel Hill Carrboro 2020 Chapel Hill
  • 86. Orange County Highest Per Capita Income in State Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 2019 Orange (1), $42,231 Wake (2), $40,982 Chatham (3), $40,967 Durham (6), $35,398 Alamance (37), $27,312 Hyde (100), $18,245 $- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 Orange County, NC Wake County, NC Chatham County, NC Mecklenburg County, NC Union County, NC Durham County, NC Moore County, NC Dare County, NC New Hanover County, NC Carteret County, NC Brunswick County, NC Iredell County, NC Buncombe County, NC Cabarrus County, NC Currituck County, NC Lincoln County, NC Henderson County, NC Davie County, NC Forsyth County, NC Guilford County, NC Polk County, NC Haywood County, NC Transylvania County, NC Craven County, NC Pender County, NC Pamlico County, NC Macon County, NC Clay County, NC Catawba County, NC Camden County, NC Johnston County, NC Perquimans County, NC Beaufort County, NC Nash County, NC Gaston County, NC Person County, NC Alamance County, NC Franklin County, NC Pitt County, NC Granville County, NC Watauga County, NC Alexander County, NC Stokes County, NC Chowan County, NC Davidson County, NC Madison County, NC Stanly County, NC Gates County, NC Rowan County, NC Surry County, NC Jackson County, NC Wayne County, NC Yadkin County, NC Wilkes County, NC Mitchell County, NC Cumberland County, NC Lee County, NC Ashe County, NC Wilson County, NC Pasquotank County, NC Montgomery County, NC Yancey County, NC Burke County, NC Onslow County, NC Randolph County, NC McDowell County, NC Rockingham County, NC Rutherford County, NC Cherokee County, NC Caswell County, NC Caldwell County, NC Lenoir County, NC Harnett County, NC Martin County, NC Bladen County, NC Warren County, NC Washington County, NC Alleghany County, NC Swain County, NC Vance County, NC Bertie County, NC Sampson County, NC Columbus County, NC Cleveland County, NC Northampton County, NC Jones County, NC Halifax County, NC Anson County, NC Richmond County, NC Avery County, NC Hoke County, NC Edgecombe County, NC Graham County, NC Duplin County, NC Hertford County, NC Tyrrell County, NC Greene County, NC Scotland County, NC Robeson County, NC Hyde County, NC
  • 87. Wake Leads, Orange 2nd in Regional Median Household Income in 2019 Household Income is the total annual earnings of all members of a household, whether they are a family or separate individuals living together (Distinct from Median Family Income and Per Capita Income) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) $74,314 $70,258 $65,541 $57,963 $84,377 $57,388 $65,712 Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Wake North Carolina United States
  • 89. Worker Inflow, Outflow, and Commuting
  • 90. Orange County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 48,116 drive in, 38,088 drive out, and 19,965 live and work in Orange County Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 91. Where do Orange County’s 68,081 Workers Live? Orange County workers by county of residence, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) [CELLRANGE], 19,965 [CELLRANGE], 13,231 [CELLRANGE], 10,177 [CELLRANGE], 6,900 [CELLRANGE], 4,607 [CELLRANGE], 1,364 [CELLRANGE], 891 [CELLRANGE], 862 [CELLRANGE], 811 [CELLRANGE], 588 [CELLRANGE], 8,685 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Chatham Guilford Johnston Mecklenburg Person Forsyth All Other Locations
  • 92. 3,972 More Orange County Workers Commuting from Wake County than in 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) -1,875 1,792 3,972 1,226 565 359 450 40 236 112 2,032 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Chatham Guilford Johnston Mecklenburg Person Forsyth All Other Locations Change in number of Orange County workers’ county of residence from 2008-2018
  • 93. Where do Orange County’s 59,053 Working Residents Go to Work? Location of primary job for Orange County residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) [CELLRANGE], 19,965 [CELLRANGE], 14,734 [CELLRANGE], 9,133 [CELLRANGE], 2,526 [CELLRANGE], 1,841 [CELLRANGE], 1,730 [CELLRANGE], 771 [CELLRANGE], 528 [CELLRANGE], 308 .5%, 290 [CELLRANGE], 6,227 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Guilford Mecklenburg Chatham Forsyth Cumberland New Hanover All Other Locations
  • 94. Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 43,336 drive in, 14,558 drive out, and 6,448 live and work in Chapel Hill Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 95. Chapel Hill workers by county of residence, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) [CELLRANGE], 16,245 [CELLRANGE], 9,687 [CELLRANGE], 5,448 [CELLRANGE], 3,600 [CELLRANGE], 3,009 [CELLRANGE], 638 [CELLRANGE], 319 [CELLRANGE], 691 [CELLRANGE], 370 [CELLRANGE], 265 [CELLRANGE], 4,358 Orange Durham Wake Chatham Alamance Guilford Johnston Mecklenburg Forsyth Person All Other Locations Where do Chapel Hill’s 49,784 Workers Live?
  • 96. Where do Chapel Hill’s 21,006 Working Residents Go To Work? Location of primary job for Chapel Hill residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) [CELLRANGE], 7,329 [CELLRANGE], 5,178 [CELLRANGE], 3,449 [CELLRANGE], 755 [CELLRANGE], 649 [CELLRANGE], 411 [CELLRANGE], 291 [CELLRANGE], 238 [CELLRANGE], 129 [CELLRANGE], 120 [CELLRANGE], 2,457 Orange Durham Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Alamance Chatham Forsyth Cumberland New Hanover All Other Locations
  • 97. Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 4,345 drive in, 9,187 drive out, and 657 live and work in Carrboro Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 98. Where do Carrboro’s 9,174 Working Residents Go To Work? Location of primary job for Carrboro residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) [CELLRANGE], 4,052 [CELLRANGE], 1,853 [CELLRANGE], 1,370 [CELLRANGE], 238 [CELLRANGE], 233 [CELLRANGE], 215 [CELLRANGE], 203 [CELLRANGE], 79 .5%, 42 .4%, 41 [CELLRANGE], 848 Orange Durham Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Alamance Chatham Forsyth Lee Cumberland All Other Locations
  • 99. Chatham County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 10,785 drive in, 24,687 drive out, and 6,057 live and work in Chatham Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 100. Where do Chatham County’s 28,616 Working Residents Work? Location of primary job for Chatham County residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) [CELLRANGE], 6,571 [CELLRANGE], 5,566 [CELLRANGE], 4,607 [CELLRANGE], 3,680 [CELLRANGE], 1,202 [CELLRANGE], 967 [CELLRANGE], 951 [CELLRANGE], 854 [CELLRANGE], 764 [CELLRANGE], 278 [CELLRANGE], 3,176 Wake Chatham Orange Durham Lee Guilford Randolph Mecklenburg Alamance Forsyth All Other Locations
  • 101. Majority of Orange and Chatham Residents Work Outside the County They Live In Percent of residents commuting outside of the county for work, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 66% 81% of Orange County Residents Commute Out of Chatham County Residents Commute Out
  • 102. Most County Jobs Filled by In-Commuters Percent of county jobs filled by in-commuters, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 71% of Orange County Jobs Filled by In-Commuters 63% of Chatham County Jobs Filled by In- Commuters
  • 103. Let’s Stop There for Now
  • 105. Trivia • Counties named for Women - Mary Wake - Charlotte of Mecklenburg - Virginia Dare - Perquimans (Land of the Beautiful Women)
  • 106. Trivia • Counties named for Women - Mary Wake - Charlotte of Mecklenburg - Virginia Dare - Perquimans (Land of the Beautiful Women) • Counties names for indigenous people, I would say.. - Catawba - Cherokee - Chowan - Pamlico - Perquimans (the Yeopim were later called the Perquiman)

Notas del editor

  1. Add actual number to notes
  2. In 2019 demographers were predicting only a 9% decennial population increase
  3. *All other includes American-Indian, multi-racial, & other races
  4. *All other includes American-Indian, multi-racial, & other races
  5. *All other includes American-Indian, multi-racial, & other races
  6. 2017: 46164 drive in, 37,073 drive out, and 19,953 live and work in Orange County
  7. 2017: 41,779 drive in, 14,008 drive out, and 6,627 live and work in Chapel Hill(Alone)
  8. 72% outside of orange county
  9. 2017: 3,666 drive in, 8,561 drive out, and 571 live and work in Carrboro
  10. 2017: 9,375 drive in, 21,897 drive out, and 5,140 live and work in Chatham