Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Macroeconomic Advisers’ 25th Annual Washington Policy Seminar.

1. Congressional Budget Office
Presentation at Macroeconomic Advisers’
25th Annual Washington Policy Seminar
Keith Hall
Director
CBO’s Updated Projections for the
Federal Budget and the Economy
September 9, 2015

2. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 1
Outlook for the Budget

3. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2
Total Deficits or Surpluses

4. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 3
Federal Debt Held by the Public

5. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 4
Total Revenues

6. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 5
Revenues, by Major Source

7. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 6
Revenues and Tax Expenditures in 2015

8. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 7
Total Outlays

9. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 8
Projected Outlays in Major Budget Categories

10. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 9
Population, by Age Group

11. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 10
Spending for the Major Health Programs in 2025 and the
Share of That Spending on People at Least 65 Years Old

12. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 11
Projected Net Interest

13. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 12
Defense, Nondefense, and Other Mandatory Spending

14. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 13
Total Revenues and Outlays

15. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 14
Spending and Revenues Projected in CBO’s Baseline,
Compared With Actual Values in 1965 and 1990
Note: * = between zero and 0.05 percent.

16. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 15
Outlook for Economic Growth

17. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 16
Growth of Real GDP

18. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 17
GDP and Potential GDP

19. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 18
Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP

20. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 19
Real Total Compensation of Employees

21. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 20
Business Investment

22. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 21
Household Formation

23. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 22
Outlook for the Labor Market

24. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 23
Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment

25. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 24
Underuse of Labor

26. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 25
The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

27. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 26
Employment Shortfall
The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in
December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).

28. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 27
Labor Force Participation and Hourly Labor Compensation

29. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 28
Outlook for Inflation and
Interest Rates

30. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 29
Inflation

31. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 30
Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve,
and Federal Funds Futures

32. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 31
Interest Rates

33. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 32
Nominal and Real Interest Rates on 10-Year
Treasury Notes
*Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.