Basic introductory presentation on climate change effects that Canadians can expect in the next few decades.

1. Canada and Climate Change
Expectations for the Future
Turn Down the Heat – Final Project

2. Climate Change
• Humans are warming the climate
• Regardless of if we stopped now, some
temperature change is already inevitable
(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)
Business as
usual
Aggressive
greenhouse
gas mitigation

3. Climate Change
• Often we hear about impacts in other parts of
the world
• But what about here in Canada?
(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)
Business as
usual
Aggressive
greenhouse
gas mitigation

4. Changes - Temperature increase
• Seasonal temperature warming
• More extremely hot days and nights
• Fewer unusually cold days and nights
• Longer, more frequent and intense heat waves
Aggressive emissions reduction Business as usual
(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

5. Changes - Temperature increase
• Seasonal temperature warming
• More extremely hot days and nights
• Fewer unusually cold days and nights
• Longer, more frequent and intense heat waves
Aggressive emissions reduction Business as usual
(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

6. Changes - Percipitation increase
• Increases in percipitation
• More frequent heavy percipitation
• More snow accumulation in winter
Aggressive emissions reduction Business as usual
(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

7. Changes - Percipitation increase
• Increases in percipitation
• More frequent heavy percipitation
• More snow accumulation in winter
Aggressive emissions reduction Business as usual
(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

8. Changes – Snow, Ice, Permafrost
• Increases in snow depth with more percipitation
• But snow cover duration will decrease
• Ice free Arctic summer could happen by mid-
century
• Lake ice duration may decrease by up to a month
by mid-century
• Permafrost is warming, though the coldest
permafrost could still last for centuries
▫ For more about permafrost, check out an interview with Prof.
Antoni Lewkowicz, expert in permafrost science
▫ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmTfqLOmNXc

9. Changes – Oceans and Sea Level
• Sea Level
▫ Global rise in sea level (may be over 1 m by the
end of the next century)
▫ Due to land uplift along Canadian coastlines
relative sea rise also depends on location
• Hypoxia
▫ Less desolved oxygen in water
• Increased acidity
▫ Ocean water is becoming “corrosive” to some
species and desolving their shells/skeletons

10. Effects - Extreme weather events
• Extreme weather events and the damage they
cause are likely to occur with increasing
frequency

11. Effects - Extreme weather events
• Extreme weather events and the damage they
cause are likely to occur with increasing
frequency
• What kind of damage can we expect?

12. Effects - Extreme weather events
• Extreme weather events and the damage they
cause are likely to occur with increasing
frequency
• What kind of damage can we expect?
▫ Let’s look at the past to predict the future...

13. Effects - Extreme weather events
(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)
Storm (including
snow)
Wildfire
Tornado
Hurricane
Flooding
Example losses from extreme weather in the last 15 years

14. Effects - Extreme weather events
(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)
Storm (including
snow)
Wildfire
Tornado
Hurricane
Flooding
2006 Storm
$133 M
2011 Windstorm
$200M
2010 Hailstorm
$500M
2004 HailStorm
$166 M
2009 Windstorm
$350 M 2009 Hailstorm
$30 M
2013 Storm
$850 M
2010
Thunderstorm
$120M
2010 Winter
storm s
$51 M

15. Effects - Extreme weather events
(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)
Storm (including
snow)
Wildfire
Tornado
Hurricane
Flooding
2003 Wildfire
$200M
2011 Wildire
$700 M

16. Effects - Extreme weather events
(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)
Storm (including
snow)
Wildfire
Tornado
Hurricane
Flooding
2011 Tornado
$110M

17. Effects - Extreme weather events
(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)
Storm (including
snow)
Wildfire
Tornado
Hurricane
Flooding
2011 Hurricane
$130M
2003 Hurricane
$132M
2010
Hurricane
$70M

18. Effects - Extreme weather events
(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)
Storm (including
snow)
Wildfire
Tornado
Hurricane
Flooding
2013
Flooding
$1700M
2005 Flooding
$300M
2005 Flooding
$60M

19. Effects - Extreme weather events
(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)
Storm (including
snow)
Wildfire
Tornado
Hurricane
Flooding
These types of losses are expected to become more frequent
with increasing climate change.

20. Effects - Biodiversity
• Already being affected
▫ e.g. Mortality rate increase in sockeye salmon due
to river temperature increase
• Many species already moving location due to
climate changes
▫ But some can’t adapt or have no where to go

21. Effects - Agriculture
• Canada may get an increase in growing season
and have increased production
• But we will also have increased pests
• And damage from extreme weather events
▫ E.g. Early warming in 2012 followed by frost
caused 80% reduction in apple blossoms in
Ontario for $100M in damage
• And many places we import food from will be
adversely affected by this global problem

22. Effects – Human Health
• Expect increase in diseases carried by pests
▫ E.g. lyme disease
• Air pollution issues exacerbated
• Increased heat wave deaths
• Allergy season length increasing

23. Adaptation
• There are many adaptations that will be
necessary in the coming years due to climate
change
• Some examples:
▫ Northern infrastructure must be prepared for melting
permafrost
▫ Communities must prepare responses to heat waves to
prevent negative health impacts
▫ Health tools for dealing with increases in climate
related diseases must be developed for communities
▫ Protecting habitat zones for moving aminal species
▫ Moving vulnerable coastal roads inland

24. Mitigation
• What about prevention?
• While some climate change is inevitable, there
are multiple end results if we act now
• Canada is a high greenhouse gas emitter per
capita – something we can act on
• Federally, not a lot has been done
• On provincial and municiple levels, however, we
can still move forward
▫ E.g. British Columbia’s revenue neutral carbon tax
is being looked on as an example globally and has
proven effective in reducing emissions

25. Other links of interest
• http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/
• http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/
• http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/forests/climate-
change/13083
• http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/impacts-
adaptation/10761
• http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/tbs/tp/climate/carbon
_tax.htm

26. References
• IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part
A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D.
Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S.
MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32.
• Warren, F.J. and Lemmen, D.S., editors (2014): Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts
and Adaptation; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 286p.

27. Additional Image Credits
• USFWS, Three polar bears on the Beaufort Sea coast, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 2005 available at
http://digitalmedia.fws.gov/
• Page 5 of U.S. Government Printing Office Pamphlet 1996-792-501: Lake Washington Ship Canal Fish Ladder -
Drawing of male freshwater phase Sockeye (red) salmon available at
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lake_Washington_Ship_Canal_Fish_Ladder_pamphlet_-
_male_freshwater_phase_Sockeye.jpg