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The CCRSPI Conference, 15-17th February 2011, Melbourne



    Modeling N2O emissions
     from agricultural soils
Deli Chen1, Yong Li1, Bob Farquharson1, Richard Eckard1, Kevin
Kelly2, Louise Barton3 , Peter Grace4
1Melbourne   School of Land and Environment, The University of Melbourne

2   DPI Victoria, 3UWA, 4QUT
Processes contributing to/interacting with
         N2O production in soil
         Ammonia                 NH3
  volatilization (10-70%)

                                                           Soil organic
                                 NH4   +
                                                           matter Fertilizer
                                                           Animal Waste
                         N2
       Denitrification




                                           Nitrification
         (5-80%)




                         N2O   (NH2OH)




                                 NO2-

             Nitrate leaching
                 (5-90%)         NO3-
Measurement of N2O
                            GC




                 Close path FTIR
Fc   KT cc / z
                   Flux    wc

                                   TDL
High spatial variability: N2O fluxes varying 40 folds within one ha
                      (Turner et al, Plant and Soil, 2008)




                                                               4
High temporal variability: N2O fluxes between 1968 and 2004 from
       rain-fed wheat at Rutherglen, simulated by WNMM

                Annual N2O Emissions (kg N ha-1 year-1)
                      at Treatment: DD+RET+N
 0.7


 0.6


 0.5


 0.4


 0.3


 0.2


 0.1


  0
  1968   1972   1976   1980   1984    1988    1992     1996     2000     2004


                                             (Li et al, Plant and Soil, 2008)   5
Measurement or modelling?
 Expensive to measure continuously
 Impossible to rely on the field measurement alone
  to quantify regional N2O emissions
 Mitigation of N2O emissions requires a whole
  system approach
     N2O loss accounts for ~1%, compared with
            >50% total loss of applied N
 Process (system) based model/DSS is a useful tool
N2O simulation models

 Since the first N2O simulation model, zero-order
  kinetics by Focht (1974), models of varying
  complexity have been developed
 Based on the utilisation purpose, N2O emissions
  models can be divided into three levels:
    Laboratory
    Field (process
     based, DCDC, DAYCENT, ecosys, WNMM )
    Regional/Global
                                               7
WNMM—spatially referenced water and nutrients
 management model     , it simulates:

 Soil water dynamics
 Plant growth
 Comprehensive C and N cycling,
including N2O emissions




                                                      8
(Li et al, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009; Chen et al 2010)
ArcView interface




……


                  9
N2O emissions from irrigated maize, Yuci, Shanxi
N2O Emissions in USA
                                                                                      CT-CC-224                                                                                                           CT-CC-224

                                                0.45                                                                                                                   30
Soil Volumetric Water Content of 0-15cm (v/v)




                                                0.40                                                                                                                   25




                                                                                                                                        Soil Temperature at 5cm (oC)
                                                0.35                                                                                                                   20



                                                0.30                                                                                                                   15



                                                0.25                                                                                                                   10


                                                0.20                                                                                                                    5



                                                0.15                                                                                                                    0
                                                  1-Jan-02   30-Jun-02    27-Dec-02     25-Jun-03   22-Dec-03   19-Jun-04   16-Dec-04                                  1-Jan-02   30-Jun-02   27-Dec-02     25-Jun-03   22-Dec-03   19-Jun-04   16-Dec-04



                                                                                      CT-CC-224                                                                                                           CT-CC-224

                                                100                                                                                                                    120




                                                 75                                                                                                                     90
      CO2 Fluxes (kg C/ha/d)




                                                                                                                                          N2O Fluxes (g N/ha/d)




                                                 50                                                                                                                     60




                                                 25                                                                                                                     30




                                                  0                                                                                                                     0
                                                 1-Jan-02    30-Jun-02   27-Dec-02      25-Jun-03   22-Dec-03   19-Jun-04   16-Dec-04                                  1-Jan-02   30-Jun-02   27-Dec-02     25-Jun-03   22-Dec-03   19-Jun-04   16-Dec-04


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  11
                                                                         Conventional Tillage and Continuous Corn in ARDEC, Fort Collins, CO, USA. The dataset is provided by Arvin Mosier, USA.
N2O Emissions in Mexico




 WNMM simulations, Yaqui Valley, Mexico, Stanford University
                                                               12
Validation: three key outputs should be validated before
   validation of N2O, example of WA Rain-fed wheat
      Soil moisture & Temp                   Soil mineral N




         Plant growth             Measured and simulated N2O fluxes




                                                            13
Irrigated pasture at Kyabram, VIC




                                    14
Validation: three key outputs should be validated before
   validation of N2O, example of WA Rain-fed wheat
      Soil moisture & Temp                   Soil mineral N




         Plant growth             Measured and simulated N2O fluxes




                                                            15
Regional N2O emissions, WA wheat -belt using WMM (with RS,
              soil database and climate data)




                  IPCC      WNMM
     EF
                 (1.0%)   (0.3-0.64%)
N2O (t N/year)   5309        1681
Challenges-sugarcane studies
                           Cumulative N2Oemissions, both sites
                 50
                 40
                                                                 South fertilised
      kgN ha-1




                 30                                              South unfertilised
                 20                                              North fertilised
                                                                 North unfertilised
                 10
                  0
                      0   100      200           300     400
                             Days after fertilising
•   N2O:
     – South, extraordinarily large and long-lived; emission factor 20%
     – North, very much smaller and short-lived; emission factor 2.8%
•   IPCC:
     – N2O emission factor 1% (Denmead and Wang et al, 2008)                   17
Murwillumbah: OCT 2005-SEP 2006
Treatment: 160 N kg/ha UREA on 19 OCT 2005

                                          TR fertilized                                                                                 TR fertilized


  30                                                                                           0.70

                                                                                               0.65
  25
                                                                                               0.60

                                                                                               0.55
  20

                                                                                               0.50

  15                                                                                           0.45

                                                                                               0.40
  10            TSOIL@5cm (OBS)                                                                                                                                   SWC@2-8cm (OBS)
                TSOIL@5cm (PRE)                                                                0.35                                                               SWC@2-8cm (PRE)

    5                                                                                           0.30
  01-Oct-05 15-Nov-05 30-Dec-05 13-Feb-06 TR fertilized 14-May-06 28-Jun-06 12-Aug-06 26-Sep-06 01-Oct-05 15-Nov-05 30-Dec-05 13-Feb-06 TR fertilized14-May-06 28-Jun-06 12-Aug-06 26-Sep-06
                                           30-Mar-06                                                                                     30-Mar-06

   7                                                                           ET (OBS)        0.80                                                                         N2O (OBS)
                                                                               ET (PRE)                                                                                     N2O (PRE)
                                                                                               0.70
   6

                                                                                               0.60
   5
                                                                                               0.50
   4
                                                                                               0.40
   3
                                                                                               0.30

   2
                                                                                               0.20

   1                                                                                           0.10

    0                                                                                       0.00
  01-Oct-05 15-Nov-05 30-Dec-05 13-Feb-06 30-Mar-06 14-May-06 28-Jun-06 12-Aug-06 26-Sep-06 01-Oct-05 15-Nov-05 30-Dec-05 13-Feb-06 30-Mar-06 14-May-06 28-Jun-06 12-Aug-06 26-Sep-06




                                                                                                                                                                               18
Challenges on modelling
Separate N2O emission sources, very limited
 information about N2O emission in nitrification
 process
Partition of N2O and N2 in denitrification
 Lack of system approaches (need to quantify all
 pathways of water and N and C dynamics)
Very little information about indirect GHG
 emissions
Scale up (catchment scale)

                                                    19
Shading area
      indicates
    nitrification
  contribution to
  N2O emissions
(irrigated pasture)
Options to increase N efficiency and mitigate
                  N2O emission
    Use right amount, right type, apply at right time
More effective than controlling loss processes in soil after N addition
     with right method
     Need a practical tool to identify BMPs and
      incorporate land use, soil and climate variables
      and economic and environmental interests
         GIS based Agricultural Decision Support
                         System
GIS-Based Agricultural Decision Support
                                                                                                               System
                                             Outcomes in
                                         The North China Plain
                                   While maintaining/increasing crop
                                               production:                                                                    Scenario Evaluation
                                  1. Up to 30% irrigation water saving
                                                                                                                            The outputs of various management
                                 2. Up to 25% nitrogen fertiliser saving                                                scenarios are assessed against the set criteria,         Climate            Soil               Landuse
                                  3. Up to 70% less ammonia N losses                                                   considering crop yield, water and fertiliser use
                                                                                                                           efficiency, and environmental impacts
                               4. Up to 25% less N2O (a greenhouse gas)
                                    5. Up to 50% less nitrate leaching



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Agricultural Survey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Information about
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   agricultural management
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  practices (soil, climate and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           land use)


                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Agricultural
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Practices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Crops
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Crop harvest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       N fertiliser application
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Irrigation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Tillage


                          18
                                                                           SB
                          16                                               SB (predicted)
                                                                           SB+I
NH 3 Flux (kg N/ha/day)




                          14                                               SB+I (predicted)
                          12

                          10                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Scenario
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Development
                           8
                           6                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Fertiliser (nitrogen)
                           4

                           2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   application and irrigation
                            0
                          27-Jun-98 29-Jun-98   1-Jul-98   3-Jul-98   5-Jul-98   7-Jul-98


Example: Reduced ammonia
             emission                                                                                                                                                       Crop/pasture            Water           Nutrients (N&P)
  Irrigating immediately after                                                                                                                                                 Crop yield      Soil water content   Soil mineral-N content
    fertiliser application was
predicted to reduce NH3 loss, as                                                                                                                                           Above- and below-     Soil water flux    Ammonia volatilisation
    confirmed through field                                                                                                                                                                       Soil drainage     Nitrous oxide emission
          measurements                                                                                                                                                      ground biomass
                                                                                                                                                                                                Soil evaporation        Nitrate leaching
                                                                                                    Best Management Practices                                                                  Crop transpiration       Crop N uptake
                                                                                              For local agricultural extension officers and
                                                                                                           individual farmers
Development of policy options
  by integrating biophysical and economic models

                                       State


                                   Farm economic
                                       model
Driving forces     Pressures                              Impacts         Reponses
                                    Biophysical
                                                                         Policy option
                                      model
                                                                             Water
                                                            Policy       management
 Input data      Resources and                                             Nitrogen
                                        GIS               evaluation
                 environmental                                           management
                                                         Environmental
  Climate          problems
                                                            Social
    Soil
                                                           Economic
Crop rotation    Groundwater      Farm decision and
  Policies        extraction     biophysical processes
                 Groundwater           simulation
                   pollution         Farmers’ input
                 N2O emission           behaviour
                                      Crop growth
                                    Water dynamics
                                   Nitrogen dynamics
1.2                                                                                       25
N2O emission (kg N/ha)




                                                                                         Nitrogen fertiliser use
                          1
                                                                                                                   20




                                                                                           efficiency (kg/ha)
                         0.8
                                                                                                                   15
                         0.6

                         0.4
                                                                                                                   10
                                       y = -0.01x + 0.73                                                                          y = -4.7x + 22.72
                                          R2 = 0.997                                                                                  R2 = 0.87
                         0.2                                                                                       5

                          0
                                                                                                                   0
                               0   5      10       15      20    25       30   35   40
                                                                                                                        0   0.5            1          1.5     2   2.5
                                               Nitrogen price (Yuan/kg)
                                                                                                                                      Water price (Yuan/m3)
Conclusion remarks
Require regional/industry specific model or
 parameters for N2O estimation
To mitigation of N2O emissions, require system
 approaches
Spatially referenced processes based model and
 DSS are useful tool for quantification and
 mitigation of N2O emissions
Incorporate impact of EEF (inhibitors and
 controlled release fertilisers) into models

                                                  26
Effect of urease inhibitor on NH3 loss
                   14
                                Cumulative NH3 loss
                   12
                                                                               29% of applied N
                   10
NH3 loss (kg/ha)




                                  Urea
                    8

                                  Green urea
                    6



                    4
                                                                               9% of applied N
                    2



                    0
                        0   5        10              15              20   25      30

                                          Days after fertilisation
Effect of nitrification inhibitor on N2O emission


                 2.5




                 2.0
                                     DMPP    Urea

                 1.5
N2O (g/ha.hr)




                                                                                          44% reduction of N2O emission

                 1.0




                 0.5




                 0.0
                       0       10     20    30      40   50         60        70     80      90      100           110   120

                fertiliser applied                       fertiliser applied        Days       fertiliser applied
Effect of NI and SCU on N2O emission and yield
           N2O and yield (2007-2009)
                                25

                                             U ea
                                              r        NI    SCU     CK
                                20
       N2O fluxes (mg∙m2∙d-1)



                                15


                                10


                                5


                                0
                                                    D e
                                                     at


  Treatment                          N2O (kg N∙ha-1)        Yield (kg∙ha-1)
      Urea                             1.20±0.05b           10,700±170c
    Urea+NI                            0.90±0.03c           11,160±290b
Sulfur coated urea                     0.44±0.07e           13,270±130a
Most effective ways to mitigate N2O emission
                  Use less N fertilizer

                Less Consumption (diet)

                      Less People

                  Population Control


  Without population control, China would have 300-400
               million more people today
 What will the emissions be when we have another 3 billion
                      people in 2050?

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Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils - Deli Chen

  • 1. The CCRSPI Conference, 15-17th February 2011, Melbourne Modeling N2O emissions from agricultural soils Deli Chen1, Yong Li1, Bob Farquharson1, Richard Eckard1, Kevin Kelly2, Louise Barton3 , Peter Grace4 1Melbourne School of Land and Environment, The University of Melbourne 2 DPI Victoria, 3UWA, 4QUT
  • 2. Processes contributing to/interacting with N2O production in soil Ammonia NH3 volatilization (10-70%) Soil organic NH4 + matter Fertilizer Animal Waste N2 Denitrification Nitrification (5-80%) N2O (NH2OH) NO2- Nitrate leaching (5-90%) NO3-
  • 3. Measurement of N2O GC Close path FTIR Fc KT cc / z Flux wc TDL
  • 4. High spatial variability: N2O fluxes varying 40 folds within one ha (Turner et al, Plant and Soil, 2008) 4
  • 5. High temporal variability: N2O fluxes between 1968 and 2004 from rain-fed wheat at Rutherglen, simulated by WNMM Annual N2O Emissions (kg N ha-1 year-1) at Treatment: DD+RET+N 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 (Li et al, Plant and Soil, 2008) 5
  • 6. Measurement or modelling?  Expensive to measure continuously  Impossible to rely on the field measurement alone to quantify regional N2O emissions  Mitigation of N2O emissions requires a whole system approach  N2O loss accounts for ~1%, compared with >50% total loss of applied N  Process (system) based model/DSS is a useful tool
  • 7. N2O simulation models  Since the first N2O simulation model, zero-order kinetics by Focht (1974), models of varying complexity have been developed  Based on the utilisation purpose, N2O emissions models can be divided into three levels:  Laboratory  Field (process based, DCDC, DAYCENT, ecosys, WNMM )  Regional/Global 7
  • 8. WNMM—spatially referenced water and nutrients management model , it simulates:  Soil water dynamics  Plant growth  Comprehensive C and N cycling, including N2O emissions 8 (Li et al, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009; Chen et al 2010)
  • 10. N2O emissions from irrigated maize, Yuci, Shanxi
  • 11. N2O Emissions in USA CT-CC-224 CT-CC-224 0.45 30 Soil Volumetric Water Content of 0-15cm (v/v) 0.40 25 Soil Temperature at 5cm (oC) 0.35 20 0.30 15 0.25 10 0.20 5 0.15 0 1-Jan-02 30-Jun-02 27-Dec-02 25-Jun-03 22-Dec-03 19-Jun-04 16-Dec-04 1-Jan-02 30-Jun-02 27-Dec-02 25-Jun-03 22-Dec-03 19-Jun-04 16-Dec-04 CT-CC-224 CT-CC-224 100 120 75 90 CO2 Fluxes (kg C/ha/d) N2O Fluxes (g N/ha/d) 50 60 25 30 0 0 1-Jan-02 30-Jun-02 27-Dec-02 25-Jun-03 22-Dec-03 19-Jun-04 16-Dec-04 1-Jan-02 30-Jun-02 27-Dec-02 25-Jun-03 22-Dec-03 19-Jun-04 16-Dec-04 11 Conventional Tillage and Continuous Corn in ARDEC, Fort Collins, CO, USA. The dataset is provided by Arvin Mosier, USA.
  • 12. N2O Emissions in Mexico WNMM simulations, Yaqui Valley, Mexico, Stanford University 12
  • 13. Validation: three key outputs should be validated before validation of N2O, example of WA Rain-fed wheat Soil moisture & Temp Soil mineral N Plant growth Measured and simulated N2O fluxes 13
  • 14. Irrigated pasture at Kyabram, VIC 14
  • 15. Validation: three key outputs should be validated before validation of N2O, example of WA Rain-fed wheat Soil moisture & Temp Soil mineral N Plant growth Measured and simulated N2O fluxes 15
  • 16. Regional N2O emissions, WA wheat -belt using WMM (with RS, soil database and climate data) IPCC WNMM EF (1.0%) (0.3-0.64%) N2O (t N/year) 5309 1681
  • 17. Challenges-sugarcane studies Cumulative N2Oemissions, both sites 50 40 South fertilised kgN ha-1 30 South unfertilised 20 North fertilised North unfertilised 10 0 0 100 200 300 400 Days after fertilising • N2O: – South, extraordinarily large and long-lived; emission factor 20% – North, very much smaller and short-lived; emission factor 2.8% • IPCC: – N2O emission factor 1% (Denmead and Wang et al, 2008) 17
  • 18. Murwillumbah: OCT 2005-SEP 2006 Treatment: 160 N kg/ha UREA on 19 OCT 2005 TR fertilized TR fertilized 30 0.70 0.65 25 0.60 0.55 20 0.50 15 0.45 0.40 10 TSOIL@5cm (OBS) SWC@2-8cm (OBS) TSOIL@5cm (PRE) 0.35 SWC@2-8cm (PRE) 5 0.30 01-Oct-05 15-Nov-05 30-Dec-05 13-Feb-06 TR fertilized 14-May-06 28-Jun-06 12-Aug-06 26-Sep-06 01-Oct-05 15-Nov-05 30-Dec-05 13-Feb-06 TR fertilized14-May-06 28-Jun-06 12-Aug-06 26-Sep-06 30-Mar-06 30-Mar-06 7 ET (OBS) 0.80 N2O (OBS) ET (PRE) N2O (PRE) 0.70 6 0.60 5 0.50 4 0.40 3 0.30 2 0.20 1 0.10 0 0.00 01-Oct-05 15-Nov-05 30-Dec-05 13-Feb-06 30-Mar-06 14-May-06 28-Jun-06 12-Aug-06 26-Sep-06 01-Oct-05 15-Nov-05 30-Dec-05 13-Feb-06 30-Mar-06 14-May-06 28-Jun-06 12-Aug-06 26-Sep-06 18
  • 19. Challenges on modelling Separate N2O emission sources, very limited information about N2O emission in nitrification process Partition of N2O and N2 in denitrification  Lack of system approaches (need to quantify all pathways of water and N and C dynamics) Very little information about indirect GHG emissions Scale up (catchment scale) 19
  • 20. Shading area indicates nitrification contribution to N2O emissions (irrigated pasture)
  • 21. Options to increase N efficiency and mitigate N2O emission  Use right amount, right type, apply at right time More effective than controlling loss processes in soil after N addition with right method  Need a practical tool to identify BMPs and incorporate land use, soil and climate variables and economic and environmental interests  GIS based Agricultural Decision Support System
  • 22. GIS-Based Agricultural Decision Support System Outcomes in The North China Plain While maintaining/increasing crop production: Scenario Evaluation 1. Up to 30% irrigation water saving The outputs of various management 2. Up to 25% nitrogen fertiliser saving scenarios are assessed against the set criteria, Climate Soil Landuse 3. Up to 70% less ammonia N losses considering crop yield, water and fertiliser use efficiency, and environmental impacts 4. Up to 25% less N2O (a greenhouse gas) 5. Up to 50% less nitrate leaching Agricultural Survey Information about agricultural management practices (soil, climate and land use) Agricultural Practices Crops Crop harvest N fertiliser application Irrigation Tillage 18 SB 16 SB (predicted) SB+I NH 3 Flux (kg N/ha/day) 14 SB+I (predicted) 12 10 Scenario Development 8 6 Fertiliser (nitrogen) 4 2 application and irrigation 0 27-Jun-98 29-Jun-98 1-Jul-98 3-Jul-98 5-Jul-98 7-Jul-98 Example: Reduced ammonia emission Crop/pasture Water Nutrients (N&P) Irrigating immediately after Crop yield Soil water content Soil mineral-N content fertiliser application was predicted to reduce NH3 loss, as Above- and below- Soil water flux Ammonia volatilisation confirmed through field Soil drainage Nitrous oxide emission measurements ground biomass Soil evaporation Nitrate leaching Best Management Practices Crop transpiration Crop N uptake For local agricultural extension officers and individual farmers
  • 23.
  • 24. Development of policy options by integrating biophysical and economic models State Farm economic model Driving forces Pressures Impacts Reponses Biophysical Policy option model Water Policy management Input data Resources and Nitrogen GIS evaluation environmental management Environmental Climate problems Social Soil Economic Crop rotation Groundwater Farm decision and Policies extraction biophysical processes Groundwater simulation pollution Farmers’ input N2O emission behaviour Crop growth Water dynamics Nitrogen dynamics
  • 25. 1.2 25 N2O emission (kg N/ha) Nitrogen fertiliser use 1 20 efficiency (kg/ha) 0.8 15 0.6 0.4 10 y = -0.01x + 0.73 y = -4.7x + 22.72 R2 = 0.997 R2 = 0.87 0.2 5 0 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Nitrogen price (Yuan/kg) Water price (Yuan/m3)
  • 26. Conclusion remarks Require regional/industry specific model or parameters for N2O estimation To mitigation of N2O emissions, require system approaches Spatially referenced processes based model and DSS are useful tool for quantification and mitigation of N2O emissions Incorporate impact of EEF (inhibitors and controlled release fertilisers) into models 26
  • 27. Effect of urease inhibitor on NH3 loss 14 Cumulative NH3 loss 12 29% of applied N 10 NH3 loss (kg/ha) Urea 8 Green urea 6 4 9% of applied N 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Days after fertilisation
  • 28. Effect of nitrification inhibitor on N2O emission 2.5 2.0 DMPP Urea 1.5 N2O (g/ha.hr) 44% reduction of N2O emission 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 fertiliser applied fertiliser applied Days fertiliser applied
  • 29. Effect of NI and SCU on N2O emission and yield N2O and yield (2007-2009) 25 U ea r NI SCU CK 20 N2O fluxes (mg∙m2∙d-1) 15 10 5 0 D e at Treatment N2O (kg N∙ha-1) Yield (kg∙ha-1) Urea 1.20±0.05b 10,700±170c Urea+NI 0.90±0.03c 11,160±290b Sulfur coated urea 0.44±0.07e 13,270±130a
  • 30. Most effective ways to mitigate N2O emission Use less N fertilizer Less Consumption (diet) Less People Population Control Without population control, China would have 300-400 million more people today What will the emissions be when we have another 3 billion people in 2050?