1. THIRD WORLD
WAR
MATEEKA INNOCENT
FACULTY OF LAW
UGANDA CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY

2. INTRODUCTION
 A disaster refers to an event that occurs
suddenly and causes great or mass damage. In
this case the circumstances leading to the event
are always visible decades before it takes place
because for it to happen, circumstances leading
to it develop gradually till the time is right and
consequently, the event does take place and this
case, the event refers to world war 3.
 The factors leading to this event are not far
fetched but rather obvious, with the arms race
being the front liner of the aims leading to the
event as argued below.

3. ARMS RACE
 This as it caused the past two world wars and the cold war, is a factor to reckon with. It involves
countries building big armies, having big defense budgets , invention of new weapons , having
multiple global military bases and installations among others. It should be noted that all the above
moves are spear headed by the permanent members of the United Nations security council, that
is, United States of America, China, France, United Kingdom and Russia. One may ask, what are they
preparing for? The arms race can be clearly illustrated as below.
 High defense budgets. The super powers are investing plenty of money in their armies over the past
decade compared only to cold war periods. For example, US spends almost 700 billion dollars every
year on its army, China spends around 91.5 billion dollars, Russia spends 11.7 rubles among others as
per Stockholm International Peace Research. Sincerely with such colossal sums of money put into the
army yearly, makes it evident that these powers are preparing for something such that when it does
happen, they can effectively defend themselves. A point that I believe is going to escalate the arms
race hence the war.
 Invention of new weapons. This has been possible with the ever growing technology weapons such
as, Heavy tanks, Recoilless rifles_ 100 mm and over, FROG launchers_100 mm and over, self propelled
assault guns , armored reconnaissance and command vehicles ,aircraft carriers ,cruisers , destroyers
scud missiles among others. These have been developed by respective states and the main aim of
making these weapons is to use them not to keep them. This being the ideal behind the making of
these weapons, then what are we gracing our selves for if not world war 3 .
 The setting up of strategic global bases. This was a common practice during the cold war, but even
after it died out, these bases still exist. For example, US has bases in
Bulgaria, Israel, Japan, Kosovo, Kuwait, South Korea among others. All strategically located in that in
the event of any upheaval, the enemy is easily beaten to the borne.
 Steady recruitment of people into the military. We have to realize that the weapons can not work
solo, they need people that shall instruct them. That is why it is estimated that approximately 2% of
military personnel increase in the world armies annually. These soldiers are not recruited for fun, they
are recruited and join the forces to fight, to countries like China who participate less in international
peace missions. What do they use there troops for? Other than prepare for future use.

4. DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
 This became eminent after the second world war. Different countries have taken
this up for specifically 2 purposes, that is, energy and defense or weapons.
 Countries such as Germany and Japan have been using this for energy while
others like North Korea, Syria, Israel, India among others use it for defense. The
problem here is that when countries get some nuclear or weapons they tend to
feel they can influence policy. Something that is not good for global peace and
security.
 When these nuclear powers get some disagreement in any way, they shall
always provoke war because they fill, they do have enough defense to counter
any kind attack. This is even evident presently where countries such as Syria
, Iran and North Korea do whatever they want and get away with it and there
leaders tend to be very stubborn and arrogant while dealing with human rights
matters and it should be noted that such matters cripple the United Nation in the
quest to perform its duties.
 At this point the world risks facing a nuclear crisis . This development shall bring
about tensions, mistrust and suspicions that shall result into a full scale nuclear
world war.

5. ISRAEL AND PALESTINE CONFLICT
 This has been present since 1948 with the creation of Israel.
There has been has been no peace in the middle east since then.
 Following the present and some past events, one would not help
but notice how Israel is being isolated . Turkey was first to take
that turn after Israeli commandos killed 9 Turkish pilgrims to
Gaza, next was Egypt which after the Israeli military shot and
killed 5 border post guards this year, relations have soured
Syria, Iran and Pakistan do not recognize its existence.
 Just like all the past world wars, there is always that event that
sparks the war off, during the first world war, the assassination of
prince Ferdinand and his wife sparked it off, during the second
world war, Hitler's invasion of Poland sparked off the war and in
this case, this conflict will.
 Both these warring parties are supported by members of the
security council indirectly. If there be any direct attack against
Israel, that shall consequently spark off the war.

6. CHINA’S POLICY OF
NONINTERFERENCE
 Following the events that have been happening of recent. China
has upheld this policy in that it does not intervene in domestic
issues of other states and also issues between different states
implying that those are independent sovereign states.
 This is a threat in that in the event of an upcoming war, with the
isolation policy of China, countries shall go into a war which may
spread world wide. where if this state got involved in one way or
the other, the war may not have taken place.
 Take for example the case of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria , Bahrain
and Yemen. This state has upheld the policy of non interference .
Imagine a situation where the Arab states in the middle east
come up in arms against Israel and this policy is still upheld, just
like what the US did in before the second world war took place.
The third world shall hence be inevitable if such a policy is upheld
by any other superpower.

7. DEMOCRATISATION OF ARAB STATES
 This has been very evident his year. Whereby a small percentage of the
population (say one million people in Egypt’s case) goes on the streets and
topples a government. This has been done hand in hand with violence.
 In a bid to get democracy practical in these states, a lot of bloodshed has
taken place and it should noted that wherever the democracy is to
introduced in these states , there is equal but opposite opposition to that
effect. This is not a good sign .
 History has it that wherever a certain power or idea is being imposed or
introduced to a certain group of people violently, there is always a bloody
event that comes in to stop its spread. Look at the first world war where
Kaizer William wanted to increase his influence all over Europe he received
opposition to that effect, Mussolini and Hitler wanted to spread there fascist
rule all over the world, they also got opposition to that effect hence the
second world war, when Lenin and Stalin came up with the idea of
communism and wanted to spread it all over the world, it got opposition and
was defeated in the cold war.
 This brings us to the ultimatum of if France, United States and United
Kingdom want to spread democracy to the whole world violently, there shall
be sufficient opposition to that effect hence the third world war being
inevitable

8. EMERGENCE OF WAR LORDS OR
MONGERS
 Every generation or time has its own, Napoleon in the 1880’s, Kaizer William in the
1914’s , Hitler and Mussolini in the 1940’s among others . In our times these are the
United States of America, France and United Kingdom and NATO where they all fall .
One may argue about this but I assure you that these states are the tyrants of
today, they do not necessarily need to put people in gas chambers to achieve that .
 All they have to do is to use there influence in the security council to legitimize their wars
all in the name of democracy. Look at the Afghan and Iraq invasion by the United
states, was based on mere suspicions of either terrorism aid or presence of nuclear
programs respectively and what is funny about this is that even after a decade of the
invasion, these nuclear weapons have never been found, respectively, Libya and ivory
Coast among others.
 Such developments are what undermine the integrity of the United Nations
Organization dubbing it toothless and full of double standards. One imagines, if the
person who swore to protect you is being used to persecute you, then where shall you
seek refuge? Imagine a situation where there is an emerging war between superpowers
and the UN puts its tail between its legs, then doom we shall be headed for.
 All the above trigger a lot of hatred , mistrust, tensions and suspicions amongst states
or countries, a factor that shall eventually lead to the second world war.

9. ADAPTATIONS AND SOLTUIONS
 With this disaster, adaptation may not be an option since plenty of lives shall be put at stake
while adapting to it. The only way forward is to put up measures to ensure this event does not
occur. And among others are the following.
 For the escalating arms race, the way forward to curb this vice is by setting up a strong and strict
global disarmament program where by the number of arms produced in the world are
monitored by the United Nations, countries that do not concede to this arrangement are to be
served with sanctions till they disarm. This worked on Libya and I believe that if well instituted, it
can still work
 In the case of nuclear technology, countries should be advised on getting or using alternative
energy sources, an international body should be put up to restrict and monitor all nuclear
technology activities, it should also put up standards to be followed by countries that want to be
involved in the nuclear business. The blocking of the exportation of nuclear raw materials like
uranium to producing countries, like the move Australia wanted to pull on India.
 On the policy of non interference by china, the solution there is for it to get involved in matters
that threaten global peace and security and factors that do put the integrity of the UN in
question. This shall help reduce the suspicions and mistrusts that may bring about war.
 For the Israeli Palestinian conflict, for this to be solved, Israel has to move its borders to those
that were clearly stipulated in the 1967 border marks by the UNO after the war, the recognition
of Palestine by the UN shall also help to calm the nerves of the Palestinians hence better or fair
negotiation ground for both of them , this should be done amidst dialogue and strict
consultation with both stakeholders and what shall seal all this fuss is a peace agreement which
has to be dully followed and respected.

10. Solutions continued
 Democratization of Arab states, I do believe that if people are to get the best out of
democracy, it should take a gradual process to blend into the cultures, customs, beliefs and
aspirations of the people. This can be done through literature ,civic education and mass
media to show people why democracy is the ideal method of governance. According
respect to various systems of governance that have been in place for a considerable period
of time for example, monarchism.
 In the case of war lords or mongers , these have to be tamed by the UN to make sure they
do not infiltrate or tarnish its image or integrity in one way or the other for selfish reasons.
These can also be tamed by giving veto powers to two African countries on the security
council, this I believe shall help shall help shift the battlefield from the African soil to some
other place and shall eliminate the stereotype of Americans, Europeans and Asian making
decisions that affect Africans.
 In conclusion, it should be noted that the grounds are fertile for this war but if necessary
precaution is taken to counter this possibility. The world shall be sorry that I envisioned the
coming of this war. I shall not be like the iron chancellor who said that the great questions
of the day shall not be solved by debates and resolutions of the majority but with blood and
iron. But I do rephrase that the great questions of the day shall not be solved by the blood
lust of the few, but with the debates and resolutions of the majority. Hence diplomacy is
the best solution to counter this catastrophe.