Workshop #1 of 4 at the East Asian Regional Council of Overseas Schools Leadership Conference in Bangkok in November 2013 – over 1000 principals and leaders of international schools from throughout Asia.

1. Designing a change initiative: leveraging
the Cynefin framework
EARCOS Leadership Conference 2013
Chris Jansen
1

3. Chris Jansen
3

4. Overview
e leading change dilemma
nflict – danger or opportunity
hnical and adaptive challenges
e Cynefin framework
o key questions in adaptive change
lective solution finding and
ership
4

6. So what for leadership?
www.thinkbeyond.co.nz

7. “Are we in a catch-22: stuck
between changes that fail and
failing to change?”
7

8. Can I lead positive and sustainable
change…?
8

9. 9

10. www.ideacreation.org
10

11. 11

12. Legend
!
Areas of observed
liquefaction
Port Hills area
Approx Scale 1:50,000
0
Notes:
Low-resolution aerial photos sourced from Google Earth (Copyright: 2009).
High-resolution aerials provided by New Zealand Aerial Mapping (February 2011)
Property boundaries provided by Christchurch City Council
Canterbury
Earthquak
e Recovery
Authority
DRAWN
1000
1500
2000
2500 (m)
CERA
DRAFTING CHECKED
APPROVED
CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
Land Damage Map
Land Damage After 4 September 2010
FILE :
.
APPROX. SCALE (AT A3 SIZE)
NTS
PROJECT No.
500
FIG. No.
REV.
0

13. Legend
!
Areas of observed
liquefaction
Port Hills area
Approx Scale 1:50,000
0
Notes:
Low-resolution aerial photos sourced from Google Earth (Copyright: 2009).
High-resolution aerials provided by New Zealand Aerial Mapping (February 2011)
Property boundaries provided by Christchurch City Council
Canterbury
Earthquak
e Recovery
Authority
DRAWN
1000
1500
2000
2500 (m)
CERA
DRAFTING CHECKED
APPROVED
CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
Land Damage Map
Aggregated Land Damage After 22 February 2011
FILE :
.
APPROX. SCALE (AT A3 SIZE)
NTS
PROJECT No.
500
FIG. No.
REV.
0

14. Legend
!
Repairs > $100k (houses which had
significant damage but could be
economically repaired
Rebuilds (houses which are beyond
economic repair)
Confirmed rebuilds (houses which
were confirmed to be beyond
economic repair)
Approx Scale 1:50,000
0
Notes:
Low-resolution aerial photos sourced from Google Earth (Copyright: 2009).
High-resolution aerials provided by New Zealand Aerial Mapping (February 2011)
Property boundaries provided by Christchurch City Council
Building damage based on data provided by AMI, Ansvar, EQC, FMG, Housing New Zealand, IAG, Lumley,
MAS, Tower and Vero
Canterbury
Earthquak
e Recovery
Authority
DRAWN
1000
1500
2000
2500 (m)
CERA
DRAFTING CHECKED
APPROVED
CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
Aggregated Building Damage Map
Building Damage After 4 September 2010
FILE :
.
APPROX. SCALE (AT A3 SIZE)
NTS
PROJECT No.
500
FIG. No.
REV.
0

15. Legend
!
Building Damage Ratio
(Repair cost estimate / replacement cost)
0% - 20%
20% - 40%
40% - 60%
60% - 80%
80% - 100%
100% (rebuild because it is
uneconomic to repair the building)
Approx Scale 1:50,000
0
Notes:
Low-resolution aerial photos sourced from Google Earth (Copyright: 2009).
High-resolution aerials provided by New Zealand Aerial Mapping (February 2011)
Property boundaries provided by Christchurch City Council
Building damage based on data provided by AMI, Ansvar, EQC, FMG, Housing New Zealand, IAG, Lumley,
MAS, Tower and Vero
Canterbury
Earthquak
e Recovery
Authority
DRAWN
FILE :
.
APPROX. SCALE (AT A3 SIZE)
NTS
PROJECT No.
1000
1500
2000
2500 (m)
CERA
DRAFTING CHECKED
APPROVED
500
CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
Aggregated Building Damage Map
Aggregated Building Damage After 22 February 2011
FIG. No.
REV.
0

16. Conflict
Danger
Opportunity

18. …a dynamic of experimentation and innovation…

19. Possibility…

20. Technical challenges
“can be solved with knowledge and procedures
already at hand”
Requires leader to identify priorities, project manage and
ensure stakeholder engagement
Adaptive challenges
“embedded in social complexity, require behaviour change
and are rife with unintended consequences‟
Requires leader to do all of the above and generate
and trial multiple solutions
www.ideacreation.org
20

21. Cynefin Systems Framework
Multiple
connected but
unpredictable
interactions
Unordered
Ordered
Complex
Complicated
Decisions are uncertain
and solutions only
apparent in retrospect
Decisions require
expert knowledge
Chaotic
Simple
Simple,
predictable
cause and
effect
interactions
Multiple
disconnected
interactions
Decisions need to be made
quickly to dampen energy
Decisions are obvious
Dave Snowden
www.ideacreation.org
Multiple
predictable
cause and
effect
interactions
21

22. Cynefin Framework
Multiple connected
but unpredictable
interactions
Complex
Decisions are uncertain
and solutions only
apparent in retrospect
Adaptive
challenges
Chaotic
Probe, sense and respond
www.ideacreation.org
Complicated
Technical
problems
Multiple predictable
cause and effect
interactions
Decisions require
expert knowledge
Simple analyse and
Sense,
respond
22

23. Two key questions in adaptive change
How to
engage?
What
solution?
Foster interaction, shared learning, and leverage
collective intelligence
+ Ownership,
motivation and
commitment
www.ideacreation.org
++ Better solutions
and innovation
23

24. www.ideacreation.org
chris.jansen@canterbury.ac.nz
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/chrisjansen/25/235/919