Originally presented to NUS School of Geography (sustainability track). This presentation discusses energy and its global implications, as well as challenges and opportunities for Singapore.

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2. Energy and Society:
Factors Reshaping Our Way of Life
A Macro, Non-technical View
National University of Singapore
School of Geography
15 Feb 2010
Presented by Chris Tobias, Lead Strategist

3. What we’re talking about
Quick Outline
1) An Brief Introduction to Oil
2) Peak Oil
3) Other issues at play
4) Social Implications
5) Reframing the Problem
6) Be Ready
7) Conclusion

4. A Brief Introduction to Oil
Historical background
-First “discovered” by Edwin Drake in 1859; drilled first
well in western Pennsylvania, capturing 15 barrels per
day
-Exploration and exploitation grew rapidly in the USA and
beyond
-Oil became the mainstay of the Industrial Revolution
-Oil is responsible for the growth of the economy and
human population, as never before, humans had an
accessible source of energy to draw on for a wide range
of uses
-2009 oil consumption = 84.9 million barrels per day
(IEA)

5. Oil Consumption:
Where and how much?
(US Energy Information
Administration)

6. A Brief Introduction to Oil
Why is it so important?
-Oil, like all fossil fuel energy sources, is a limited resource
-Oil, by default of the Industrial Revolution, is key for all aspects of
human life as we know it
-There is a strong demand for oil amongst the world’s nearly 7 billion
people
-Oil underpins the global economy in every respect.
OIL =

7. Oil Uses:
It’s in Everything We Do
Food Example:
-For every 1 calorie of food you eat, it takes roughly
10-15+ calories of fossil fuel energy to produce.
(.042 MJ)
-Based on an average 2500 calorie diet, that’s 30,000
calories of fossil fuel energy eaten daily (125.58 MJ)
-It takes 1500+ litres* of oil to feed the average
American annually. (*more if you eat meat)
(Hendrickson 1996)
Why? Planting, fertilising, harvesting, storing,
processing, packing, and transport are all highly
energy intensive– largely brought to you by fossil
fuels, namely oil.

8. Oil Uses:
It’s in Everything We Do
Building Material Example:
(BRANZ: Level.org)

9. What is Peak Oil?
Why is it so important?
-Oil underpins the global economy in every respect.
-Peak oil is the point in time when maximum rate of global extraction is
reached, after which oil production enters permanent decline
-When peak oil is reached, supply will be permanently outstripped by
demand going forward
-When the supply of oil is overtaken by demand, even temporarily, the
price goes up-- often quite steeply
-Once the point of peak oil is officially recognised, markets worldwide
will be prone to extreme upheaval
-Currently, there is no suitable replacement or substitute for oil
and its many functions in our global economy.

10. Beyond geologists, the alarm is now being sounded by UK Industry
Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (e.g., big business). What was
once considered a fringe notion is now on the mainstream conscience.

11. When is Peak Oil?
How will we know?
Peak oil is difficult to pinpoint due to a number of factors:
-Economic recessions and drops in demand affect supply of oil, as well as
investment in oil infrastructure; financial speculation also has contributed to recent
price spikes
-Geopolitical instability (e.g. wars, political issues, local unrest) affects reliability of
supply
-Historically, figures on oil supplies have been highly inaccurate and even
manipulated
-Experts have put out varying dates from 2000-2020
We will only really know after the fact

12. Oil Depletion:
Worldwide Production Peaks

13. Case Study
Hubbard’s Curve
-Peak Oil in USA was correctly predicted by a model
created by geologist M. King Hubbert:
-His methodology referred to as Hubbert’s Curve
-He asserted that peak oil production in the USA would
occur between 1965-1970
-In 1970-71, the lower 48 states produced a record
amount of oil (a Peak), followed by decline in production
thereafter
-The drop in domestic production lead to an increase of
US oil import from other areas (namely the Middle East)
-He also predicted a global peak around 2000 or slightly
beyond

14. Demand for Oil
What the future holds
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA):
-Oil production currently on the decline (due to a number
of factors)
-The equivalent of 6 new Saudi Arabia-sized oil
deposits will be necessary to meet demand in the future
(mainly coming from developing countries in Asia)
-Big investment is needed to continue exploring, tapping,
and refining oil supplies–US$26 trillion+ by 2030 (where is
this money coming from in the current economic climate?)
Critical to understand: oil is getting more difficult and
expensive to find

15. Demand for Oil
Global energy sources
Global source of energy in 2006
expressed in cubic mile of oil;
Source: SRI International

16. Other factors at play
Oil in the bigger picture
Key trends/considerations:
-According to UN estimates, human population is
on the rise and projected to reach 8.9bn-10bn by 2050
-Arable land and fresh water are also becoming scarce
-Many energy resources as well as critical elements will be in decline in
coming decades (e.g. uranium, natural gas, trace minerals)
-Climate change: we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil
fuel sources like oil to prevent the worst effects
-The “endless growth” economic model we currently have is
unsustainable: you cannot have indefinite growth on a planet with finite
resources (see also, the recent financial crisis and its causes)

17. Social Implications
Our world as a system
Important to understand: All these issues are related. While each may be
examined in turn, all these areas affect the others, and we are in this system.
All things on the planet are connected, even more so now by a unitary global
economy.
Whatever the outcome is, it affects us.

18. Social Implications
What the future holds
Key observations/trends:
-We are underinvested in an area critical to our current way of life, one that
will be in decline in the near future, one that will also enable any transition to
take place
-Oil and the economy that rests on it is unsustainable
-There is no substitute for oil and the energy/services it provides
-Shy of some energy miracle, unprecedented change is looking us in the face
-We need to re-evaluate and re-design our entire way of life

19. Social Implications
What the future holds
Transition away from fossil fuels is not a
shift that will take place easily.
Human entropy, attitudes, behaviour, vested
interests, politics, and limits of technology
are all barriers that need to be overcome.

20. Reframing the Problem
Is there a better way?
For many reasons, we as a society need to move away from fossil fuels. It is
a necessity that can no longer be ignored.
How can we use this challenge as a catalyst to redefine how we live?

21. Reframing the Problem
In other words…
WANT A JOB?

22. Be Ready
Meet these needs
Because of peak oil and other factors, the following things we take for
granted will need new solutions going into the future:
-How/what will people eat?
-How can more food be grown locally?
-What sort of building materials will be used in the future?
-What forms will buildings take?
-What sources of energy can be harvested and used?
-How can processes become more energy efficient/effective?
-How will people be employed? What jobs will matter?
-How will people get healthcare, and what sort of treatment will it involve?
-How will mobility/transport need to adjust (both short and long distance)?
-What currency will people use to exchange goods and services with?

23. Be Ready
Alternative Possibilities: Singapore and Beyond
Case Study: Agriculture and Land Use–
how will people feed themselves with
increase in fuel/food prices?
-Singapore historically produced much of its
own food domestically.
-Now reliant on importing some 93% of its
food; food production per capita dropped
dramatically (graph: Earth Trends)
-Critics say that Singapore does not have
enough land area to devote to agriculture
-Yet…there are approximately 300 sites
currently listed as farms island-wide

24. Be Ready
Alternative Possibilities: Singapore and Beyond
-Singapore: 30 golf courses and country
clubs… not to mention parks, green
spaces, public gardens, and military camps
-The challenge: perhaps it’s not a matter of
land area, but land use
-Localised, low-carbon, intensive, urban
agriculture could be possible on this small
island
-Cuba rebounded from it’s own “peak oil”
scenario following the collapse of the
USSR, and now is largely food secure. In
2002 it produced 3.2m tonnes of produce
in urban agriculture (see image at right)

25. Be Ready
Alternative Possibilities: Singapore and Beyond
Case Study: Less Energy = Better Buildings
-Many Singapore buildings are inefficiently built and
operated “glass boxes”, or monolithic high rises
-According to energy efficiency expert Lee Eng Lock,
60% of energy usage in SG attributed to inefficient aircon
(bad op. practice, rather than lack of good technology)
-And where does the energy come from?
According to NTU in 2007, Singapore energy sources:
76% Natural Gas (most imported MY/IN)
22% Fuel Oil (imported from elsewhere)
3% Waste to Energy (refuse)
.3% Diesel

26. Be Ready
Alternative Possibilities: Singapore and Beyond
Case Study: Less Energy = Better Buildings
-One local exemplar of “green” architecture:
Poh Ern Shih Temple, Pasir Panjang
Key Features:
-Passive cooling design; minimal aircon usage;
emphasis on natural ventilation
-Shading overhangs/eaves
-Amorpheus Cell PV system in 2 large installations
(roof + pagoda)
-7 large solar hot water heaters
-4x micro wind turbines (yes, they work in SG!)
-Energy efficient lighting
-Energy self-sufficient
-Water harvesting on site for landscape
-Coming soon: micro-hydro

27. Be Ready
Alternative Possibilities: Singapore and Beyond
Case Study: Social Resiliency
Worldwide movement: Transition Towns
Key Features:
-Decentralised organisation focused on local
responses to peak oil and climate change
-Started in the UK by Rob Hopkins in early
2000’s; now active in 278+ locations in 16+
countries worldwide
-Small, self-organised communities take on
initiatives for local resiliency and self-sufficiency
-Emphasis on building local economies and
social capital

28. Be Ready
You now have some ideas.
What other possibilities and solutions can be created? It’s up to YOU.

29. Be Ready
What will it take?
-Creative thinking
-Cooperation
-Resiliency
-Self-starting
-Resourcefulness
-Different skill sets
-New ways of doing things + traditional knowledge
-Adaptiveness

30. You never change anything by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the
old model obsolete.
-- Buckminster Fuller

31. Conclusion
If you remember nothing else, remember this:
1) Oil underpins our global economy.
2) An imminent peak in its production will mean many drastic shifts in the
way we live.
3) Doing nothing isn’t going to solve the problem.
4) In fact, the “problem” spells a wide range of opportunities.
5) As engineers, designers, architects, social scientists, and other talented
people– let’s be at the forefront of tackling peak oil and other critical
issues.
6) A lot of the work is done already: there are many useful examples, tools,
and technologies to draw on.
7) Change will happen whether we like it or not. We might as well be
proactive and view it as an opportunity.

32. Tomorrow doesn’t need to be
another yesterday.
Starting from square one, we are the
change our world needs.

33. Contact Forward
We’d like to hear from you.
Chris Tobias, Lead Strategist
E chris@forward.net.nz
M +65 8406 2275
+64 21 0225 2650
Skype: Forward.net.nz
Twitter: FWDTHNKG
Linkedin: ChrisTobiasForward
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