Presentation to RECA Regional Issues Committee on 02/10/14

1. Growing Prosperity in Austin
February 2014

2. Summary
• Austin owned the ten-year period
2003-2013 compared to other US
metropolitan areas
• Success can breed complacency—
need renewed sense of urgency
about underlying challenges to
Austin’s future prosperity
• Time for big ideas is now
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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3. GDP Growth (Annual)
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA) real GDP grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second
only to Houston MSA among large metro areas (GDP >$50B).
10%
8%
Austin MSA
6%
4%
2%
US (MSA)
0%
-2%
-4%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars).
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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4. Job Growth (Annual)
6%
4%
Austin MSA
Texas
2%
0%
US
-2%
-4%
Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) among large
metros (500,000+ pop) between 2001 and 2012.
-6%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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5. Net Migration (2010)
Travis County gained (net) average of 8,820 people and $321 million in
household income per year from other states between 2006 and 2010.
Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map created by Forbes.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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6. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows 2010 tax year.

7. 78701 Pop (2010): 6,841
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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8. Net Migration, Diff State
12,000
10,000
8,000
Travis County
CA 15%
IL 7%
FL 6%
CA 35%
LA 23%
FL 5%
CA 42%
CA 24%
FL 10%
IL 7%
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).In-migration from different state averages about 23,000 people per year (06-10).
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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9. Pre-Recession Leaders (2007)
Maricopa, AZ
Wake, NC
Tarrant, TX
Orleans, LA
King, WA
Travis, TX
9,840
Fulton, GA
7,573
York, SC
Net migration from different state
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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10. Post-Recession Leaders (2010)
Harris, TX
Bexar, TX
El Paso, CO
Dallas, TX
Tarrant, TX
Fulton, GA
Fairfax, VA
Travis, TX
Pinal, AZ
Wake, NC
Orleans, LA
Denver, CO
Williamson, TX
7,030
3,943
0
5,000
Net migration from different state
10,000
15,000
20,000
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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11. Popular Neighborhoods
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Steiner Ranch
Milwood/Arrowwood
North Burnet/Domain
Blackhawk/Hidden Lake
Canyon Creek
Hyde Park
7. North Loop
8. Onion Creek
9. Barton Creek/Hills
10. Old West Austin
11. Northwest Hills
12. Preston Oaks
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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12. Cost of Living (Housing - Sale)
San Francisco
Boston
Austin’s most expensive
neighborhood is cheaper
than median prices in
SF, Boston, DC, and NYC.
Washington DC
New York
Los Angeles
Seattle
Denver
Downtown Austin
$427
Portland
Raleigh
Austin
$153
Nashville
Durham
Median list price per sq ft
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Source: Zillow.com, December 2013.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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13. Cost of Living (Housing - Rent)
New York
San Francisco
Boston
Washington DC
Seattle
Los Angeles
Denver
Downtown Austin
$2.40
Portland
Nashville
Durham
Austin
$1.22
Raleigh
Median list price per sq ft
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50
Source: Zillow.com, December 2013.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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14. Opportunity Austin: Challenges
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15. Income Stagnation
130
Per Capita Income (US=100)
120
110
Travis
100
90
80
Williamson
70
60
Hays
50
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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16. Education Inequality
% Pop Age 25+ with No Completed Postsecondary Degree (MSA)
Hispanic or Latino
80%
Black or African American
73%
White
Asian
30%
0%
64% of job openings in
45% 2013-23 paying a living
wage for a family of one
adult and one child ($17
per hour) will require a
postsecondary degree.
No children – 43%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 ACS 1-Year Estimates. Living wage from CPPP http://familybudgets.org. Assumes employer-paid health care & no savings.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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17. Affordability
#affordATX
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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18. Research Questions
• We have no idea how many people
are being “pushed out” of Austin
• Separating true lack of affordability
and consumer preference for type
of housing is not a popular topic
• Need better understanding of the
combined effect of housing and
transportation costs
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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19. Opportunity Austin: Big Ideas
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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20. Big Ideas
• Education—set goal of completed
postsecondary degree for majority
of working age population in MSA
(54%/519K people age 25-64 had
no postsecondary in 2009)
• Inclusion—use Dell Medical School
opportunity to show how Austin’s
innovation economy can produce
broad-based wealth creation
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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21. Bigger Ideas
• Make Austin the first city in the US
to eliminate working poverty
• Embrace work-readiness alongside
college-readiness at all levels of
secondary and postsecondary
• End veteran homelessness
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
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23. Brian Kelsey, Principal
512-731-7851
brian@civicanalytics.com
http://civicanalytics.com
@civicanalytics