The document summarizes climate change challenges and opportunities in Tunisia. It finds that temperatures are projected to increase by 0.8-1.3°C by 2020 and precipitation to decrease by 6-10%, reducing water resources. This threatens key sectors like agriculture, tourism and ecosystems. Tunisia has potential to mitigate emissions through renewable energy (which could supply 20-30% of energy by 2020-2030) and energy efficiency in cement production. National climate strategies consider economic growth, social equality and environmental protection. National climate actions (NAMAs) aim to develop renewable energy, improve agriculture and livestock practices, and deploy cleaner cement production to boost resilience and reduce emissions.

1. Implemented by
Mitigation and Adaptation Synergies in
Tunisia
COP19-Warsaw Nov 14, 2013
Win-win approaches to low-emission and climateresilient development: A focus on synergies
Anselm Duchrow
22.11.2013
Synergies, Tunisia – Anselm Duchrow
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2. Content
1. Climate Change in Tunisia – the Challenges
2. The Water-Energy and food security nexus
3. Climate and Sustainable Development Policies
4. NAMAs contributing to mitigation and more social and ecological
resilience
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3. Implemented by
Scenarios: Temperature and Precipitation
Projected Increase of temperatures (°C)
until 2020 and 2050 in Tunisia:
+0,8°C to +1,3°C by 2020
Projected decrease (%) of average
annual precipitation by 2020 and 2050:
-6% to -10% by 2020
Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC)
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4. Scenarios: Water
• Climated-induced sea level rise: 10-12 cm (2030) and 17-22cm (2050)
• -28% of phreatic water ressources, coastal aquifers, and non renewable
aquifers, -5% of surface water
• Demographic growth, urbanization and
economic development lead to increasing
water demand
• Increase of salinity of coastal aquifers,
water demand for irrigation, and intrusion
of marine water
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5. Challenges: Adaptation
• Tourism: Increase of heat periods, climate induced sea
level rise threatening touristic infrastructure, reemergence
of
• Agriculture: increase in waterdemand for irrigation, loss
of arable land, intensification of land use in vulnerable
areas; decrease of production and yield
• Ecosystems: degradation of pastoral ecosystems in the
Centre and South (ex. Esparto and Coark Oak)
• Oasis Agriculture: 10% of the Tunisian population
depends on Oasis agriculture, which faces diminishing
variety of dates, soil salinization, and overexploitation of
water ressources
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6. Challenges: Mitigation
GHG Emissions per sector
Land-Use
Change
9%
Waste
5%
Industry
11%
Agriculture
20%
Source: SNCC
Energy
55%
Evolution of GHG Emissions per capita in Tunisia in Tons of
CO2 from 1968 to 2008
With 3.4 TE CO2 per capita, Tunisia is among the least « emission-intensive »
developing countries (world average: 4,5 t/capita)
• Large mitigation potential: 151 million TECO2 from 2008-2020 (Energy 73%,
Agriculture 14%, waste 13%)
• CO² intensity decreased by 25% between 1990 and 2009, but economic
growth leeds to steep increase of CO² per capita
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7. The water, energy and food security nexus
Source: Stockholm Environment Institute
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8. Tunisia‟s National Climate Change Strategy (SNCC)
- Scenario analysis
•
•
•
Scenario I favors economic
growth in a context of weak
global climate governance.
Scenario II focuses on
poverty reduction and social
and spatial equality, as a
response to the revolution.
Scenario III assumes that
Tunisia adapts its economic
and social development to
to a context of strong global
climate governance
S1
Economic
Growth
S2
S3
Social
Cohesion
Ecological
Ambition
Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC)
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9. A Strategic Vision for Tunisia‟s Future: A synthesis of 3
Scenarios
• Social and economic
development in the short term
with some safeguards (e.g.
ressource control) to guarantee
ecological development in the
medium term
• Objective of reducing CO2
intensity by more than 40% until
2030 and stabilize emissions by
2050
•
Key indicators for Tunisia‟s strategic vision of
the future (GDP, CO2 intensity and CO2
emissions) as a basis of 100
A proactive adaptation policy
largely determined by international
aid (e.g. Green Climate Fund)
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Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement
Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC)
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10. NAMA Renewable Energy
•
Tunisian Solar Plan aims at achieving
20% renewable energy in 2020 and 30%
in 2030
•
Tunisia suffers from a structural energy
deficit; 10% of its state budget is spent on
energy subsidies; consumption of
electricity is steadily increasing
Expected Reduction Impact and Types of
Mitigation Measures
Co-benefits
PV Cells, Wind parcs and CSP will generate
energy savings from 2013-2030 of around 13300
ktep.
• 58% emanate from wind energy, 24% from
PV
• Installed wind parcs will reduce CO2
emissions by 32 MtCO2 by 2030
•
•
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•
•
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Energy security
Green Jobs: 7700 during construction; 2600
maintanance (cumulated , conservative assumption of no
local manufacturing)
Economic gains from energy savings of 11Bi €
(2013-2030)
Infrastructure: Improvement of national electricity
grid
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11. NAMA cement sector
•
With 6.4 m tCO² in 2012 and carbon intensity of
0.810 tCO2/t, cement is the most emission
intensive industrial sector in Tunisia and accounts
for 10% of Tunisian GHG Emissions
Expected Reduction Impact and Types of
Mitigation Measures
Co-benefits
Over 8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (MtCO2)
from 2014-2020, achieved by …
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
•
•
•
Energy efficiency measures: 1.7 MtCO2
Renewable Energy (wind): 2.5 MtCO2
Reduction of clinker/cement ratio: 1.2 MtCO2
Co-processing (use of waste as fuel): 2.6
MtCO2
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Reduces overall energy consumption and
increases RE production-> energy security
Relieves state budget for subsidies
increases the sector„s competitiveness
Improves waste management
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12. NAMA Agriculture
Others
1%
Manure
Management
7%
• Agriculture represents 16% of
Tunisian GDP, 20% of employment
and is presonsible for 20% of
national emissions (Forestry: 13%)
Enteric
Fermentation
29%
Agricultural
Soils
63%
Expected Reduction Impact and Types of Mitigation
Measures
Co-benefits
Mitigation potential of 2.4 MtCO², including:
1. Nitrous-Oxide (N²O): Improved fertilizer mangement and
promotion of organic agriculture
2. Methane (CH4): Better livestock management through:
improvement of enteric fermentation process of
ruminants; and manure management
3. CO2: Improved Forest Management, reforestation,
agroforestry, use of windbreakers and other antidesertification measures
•
GHG Emissions
in Agriculture
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•
•
Agricultural: Improved performance
(better fertilizer management and
soil fertility);
Social: Jobs secured and created;
rural poverty improved
Environmental: positive impact on
biodiversity, water quality,
desertification and soil fertility
-> more resilience to external
chocks; less water and energy
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13. Implemented by
As a federal enterprise, GIZ supports the German Government in
achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for
sustainable development.
Published by
Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
Author(s)
Anselm Duchrow, Ole Ohlhoff
Photo credits
© GIZ/…..
Registered offices, Bonn and Eschborn, Germany
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Ole Ohlhoff
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T +49 61 96 79-0
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22.11.2013
Responsible
Anselm Duchrow
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