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Future•Forecast:•
Expectations•for•2012
December 2011




Gemma Pearson & Patrick Woodman
Introduction
                         2011•began•with•high•hopes•that•the•economic•situation•was•improving•and•workplaces•
                         would•start•to•feel•the•effects•of•recovery.•However,•as•this•report•shows,•it•has•clearly•been•
                         another•very•difficult•year•for•UK•managers•–•and•2012•looks•set•to•be•equally•challenging.

                         Despite•widespread•restructuring•and•redundancies•over•the•last•12•months,•nearly•half•of•
                         UK•managers•are•expecting•further•redundancies•in•2012,•and•over•a•third•of•managers•
                         feel•insecure•in•their•jobs.•As•a•result,•there•are•increasing•concerns•about•levels•of•morale•
                         and•about•whether•organisations•have•the•people•with•the•skills•and•experience•needed•
                         to•face•another•tough•year•ahead.•

                         The•results•also•shed•some•light•on•managers’•priorities•for•2012•as•they•work•to•ensure•
                         their•organisations•are•ready•to•face•a•range•of•external•factors•which•threaten•to•have•a•
                         negative•impact•on•performance.•Operating•against•a•backdrop•of•European•economic•
                         instability,•rising•energy•prices•and•domestic•austerity,•optimism•about•the•UK’s•economic•
                         performance•for•2012•remains•low.•Looking•further•ahead,•however,•there•is•a•more•defiant•
                         and•positive•outlook•among•some•managers•who•believe•that•their•own•organisations•are•
                         still•set•to•prosper.•It•will•be•important•that•these•early•indicators•of•business•confidence•are•
                         encouraged•and•are•used•to•stimulate•the•much•needed•investment•in•a•growth•agenda.•

                         To•face•the•uncertain•times•ahead,•it•is•clear•that•the•quality•and•agility•of•managers•will•
                         be•vital•in•2012.•Managers•will•need•to•able•to•adopt•new•strategies•and•lead•their•teams•
                         through•the•impending•changes,•if•organisations•are•to•survive•the•tough•times•and•succeed•
                         during•the•coming•year.


      Methodology        Twenty•thousand•CMI•members•were•invited•to•complete•an•online•survey•during•
                         November•2011.•A•total•of•774•responses•were•received•from•across•the•UK,•drawn•from•
                         industry•sectors•across•the•economy•and•from•managers•at•a•range•of•levels•of•seniority•
                         up•to•directors•and•chief•executives.




Copyright•Chartered•Management•Institute•©
First•published•2011
Chartered•Management•Institute
2•Savoy•Court,•Strand,
London•WC2R•0EZ
All•rights•reserved.•Except•for•the•quotation•of•short•passages•for•the•purposes•of•criticism•and•
review,•no•part•of•this•publication•may•be•reproduced,•stored•in•a•retrieval•system,•or•transmitted,•
in•any•form•or•by•any•means,•electronic,•mechanical,•photocopying,•recording•or•otherwise,•
without•prior•permission•of•the•publisher.
British•Library•Cataloguing•in•Publication•Data
A•CIP•catalogue•record•for•this•report•is•available•from•the•British•Library
ISBN•0-85946-497-0


                                                                                                                         2
Executive•Summary
        •• Forty-three•per•cent•of•managers•feel•optimistic•about•their•organisation’s•prospects•for•
           next•year•–•yet•optimism•about•the•UK’s•economic•performance•as•a•whole•remains•low,•
           at•just•8•per•cent.•

        •• The•restructuring•of•the•public•finances,•the•price•of•energy•and•the•instability•of•the•
           euro•are•the•top•external•factors•expected•to•have•a•damaging•impact•on•organisations•
           in•2012.

        •• Managers’•top•priorities•for•the•year•ahead•include•controlling•costs,•managing•
           performance,•increasing•turnover,•developing•strategic•partnerships•and•developing•
           their•people.•

        •• The•public•sector•experienced•a•challenging•2011•and•it•is•clear•that•difficult•circumstances•
           are•set•to•continue,•with•69•per•cent•of•managers•anticipating•redundancies•in•2012•and•
           restructuring•ranked•as•the•number•one•management•priority•in•the•sector.•Poor•morale•
           is•cited•as•a•concern•by•65•per•cent•of•public•sector•managers,•compared•to•36•per•cent•
           of•private•sector•managers•and•38•per•cent•in•the•not-for-profit•sector.••

        •• Managers•have•grave•concerns•over•their•organisations’•people•capabilities•–•43•per•cent•
           do•not•believe•their•organisation•has•the•right•people•to•fulfil•business•objectives•in•2012,•
           a•figure•unchanged•from•a•year•ago.

        •• For•organisations•that•do•not•have•the•right•people,•the•biggest•problem•is•a•shortage•
           of•key•skills.•Poor•leadership,•insufficient•experience•and•a•general•lack•of•manpower•
           are•also•substantial•concerns.

        •• Managers’•own•priorities•for•professional•development•include•strategic•decision•making,•
           coaching•and•mentoring,•negotiating•and•influencing,•project•management,•performance•
           management•and•change•management.•

        •• Job•insecurity•remains•high•with•39•per•cent•of•managers•feeling•insecure.•Unsurprisingly,•
           public•sector•managers•are•most•pessimistic•about•their•continued•employment.•When•
           asked•about•their•ability•to•secure•a•new•job•in•2012,•only•37•per•cent•of•all•managers•
           believe•they•could•find•comparable•employment•within•three•months.•




                                                                                                        3
Survey•Findings
                    It•is•clear•that•2011•has•been,•for•many•managers,•a•difficult•year.•Thirty-two•per•cent•
                    reported•that•their•organisation•had•been•in•decline,•slightly•more•than•those•reporting•
                    growth•(30•per•cent),•with•38•per•cent•describing•their•organisation’s•performance•as•stable.•
                    Comparison•with•the•figures•from•last•year’s•Future Forecast•survey1•reinforces•the•sense•
                    of•continued•pressure•on•organisations,•as•the•number•of•those•reporting•decline•has•
                    increased•by•six•percentage•points.•In•particular,•managers•in•the•public•sector•were•more•
                    likely•to•report•decline•(42•per•cent)•than•those•in•the•private•sector•(29•per•cent)•and•
                    not-for-profit•sector•(25•per•cent).

                    While•the•majority•of•managers•(55•per•cent)•reported•that•the•performance•of•their•
                    organisation•was•in•line•with•targets,•almost•a•third•(30•per•cent)•reported•that•their•
                    organisation’s•performance•was•worse•than•had•been•forecast.•This•compares•with••
                    just•15•per•cent•of•organisations•that•exceeded•their•targets.


 Star performers    Where•do•managers•look•for•examples•of•organisations•that•are•continuing•to•perform••
          in 2011   well•in•these•challenging•times?•This•year’s•survey•asked•respondents•to•nominate•the•
                    organisation•they•thought•was•best•managed•in•2011.•The•results•show•that•the•retail•sector•
                    and•especially•supermarkets•are•seen•by•the•professional•management•community•to•be•
                    performing•well,•along•with•the•Olympic•Delivery•Authority•and•companies•in•the•energy•
                    sector,•the•airline•industry•and•financial•services•(see•Figure•1).




                    Figure 1 Best•managed•organisations•in•2011


       Optimism     The•survey•asked•managers•how•optimistic•they•are•about•the•prospects•both•for•their•
  and pessimism     organisation•and•for•the•economy•as•a•whole•during•the•next•year.•The•results•of•these•
      about 2012    two•questions•tell•very•different•stories.•While•almost•three•quarters•of•respondents•feel•
                    pessimistic•about•the•economy,•only•one•third•feel•the•same•way•about•their•own•
                    organisation’s•prospects.•Correspondingly,•43•per•cent•of•respondents•feel•optimistic•
                    about•their•organisation’s•prospects•for•next•year•(a•10•per•cent•increase•compared•to•a•
                    similar•question•in•our•Economic Outlook2•report•of•October•2011)•yet•only•eight•per•cent•
                    are•optimistic•about•the•economy.
                    •
                    1•• utchings,•P.•&•Woodman,•P.,•(2010)•Future Forecast: Expectations for 2011,•
                      H
                      Chartered•Management•Institute
                    2•Pearson,•G.•et•al•(2011),•Economic Outlook,•Chartered•Management•Institute•
                                                                                                                   4
80%
                                                          72
                                70%


                                60%


                                50%
                                                                                            43                    Your organisation
                                40%
                                                 33                                                               The economy
                                30%
                                                                      24
                                20%
                                                                              20

                                10%                                                                   8

                                   0%

                                                  Pessimistic           Neither              Optimistic


                      Figure 2 Levels•of•optimism•for•organisational•and•economic•prospects•in•2012


                      The•causes•of•this•disparity•are•open•to•interpretation.•It•could•suggest•a•disconnect•
                      between•perceptions•of•the•managers’•own•organisation•and•the•external•environment.•
                      However,•nearly•half•of•these•optimists•experienced•growth•in•2011,•so•their•outlook•may•
                      be•well-founded.•Public•sector•managers•are•much•more•pessimistic•about•their•prospects•
                      for•next•year,•while•optimism•in•the•private•and•not-for-profit•sectors•is•stronger•(49•and••
                      46•per•cent).•Whatever•the•reasons•for•this•variation•in•optimism,•the•signs•of•management•
                      confidence•from•the•private•and•not-for-profit•sectors•are•to•be•welcomed.

External threats      Despite•this•optimism,•it•is•clear•that•managers•are•operating•in•a•tough•external•environment•
to performance        and•could•face•numerous•potential•threats•in•the•coming•year.•We•asked•which•of•these•
                      factors•managers•felt•would•have•a•negative•impact•on•their•organisations’•performance.

                      •
   80%


   70%        67

   60%
                           59

   50%
                                            44
   40%

                                                           30         29
   30%
                                                                                   22            21
   20%                                                                                                       18               17

   10%


    0%

          Restructuring   Energy        Instability of    Social   Trade union Technological Capacity of Competition       Impact of
          of UK public    prices          the euro        unrest     activism     change     UK transport from China      the Olympic
            finances                                                                         infrastructure and other       Games
                                                                                                             emerging
                                                                                                            economies



                      Figure 3 Agreement•that•factors•will•have•a•negative•impact•on•organisational•performance




                                                                                                                                        5
The•reforms•being•made•to•the•UK’s•public•finances•are•causing•concern•for•managers•
across•all•sectors,•particularly•for•those•in•the•public•sector•–•85•per•cent•of•whom•agree•that•
this•will•have•a•negative•impact•on•their•organisation’s•performance.•Yet•it•is•also•the•top•
concern•for•not-for-profit•sector•managers•(68•per•cent)•and•the•second•biggest•concern•
for•private•sector•managers•(59•per•cent),•despite•the•Government’s•Big•Society•and•public•
service•reform•agendas,•which•will•see•more•services•delivered•through•these•sectors.

The•cost•of•energy•is•the•primary•concern•for•private•sector•respondents•(60•per•cent•
agreement)•and•it•is•a•big•concern•across•all•sectors.•Just•over•half•of•private•sector•
managers•expect•the•instability•of•the•euro•to•have•a•negative•impact•on•organisational•
performance,•but•this•falls•to•37•per•cent•and•36•per•cent•in•the•not-for-profit•and•public•
sectors•respectively.•Bigger•issues•for•the•public•sector•include•the•impact•of•social•unrest•
(44•per•cent),•technological•change•(44•per•cent)•and•trade•union•activism•(42•per•cent).
See•Table•1•below.


 Private sector                         Public sector                         Not-for-profit sector
•••••
  Energy•prices•                        Restructuring•of••                    Restructuring•of•UK•
                                        UK•public•finances                    public•finances
 Restructuring•of••                     Energy•prices•                        Energy•prices•
 UK•public•finances
 Instability•of•the•euro                Technological•change                  Instability•of•the•euro
 Technological•change                   Social•unrest                         Social•unrest
 Capacity•of•UK••                       Trade•union•activism                  Technological•change
 transport•infrastructure


Table 1 Top•factors•expected•to•have•a•negative•impact•on•organisational•performance•by•sector


A•relatively•low•number•of•managers•expect•competition•from•China•and•other•emerging•
economies•to•have•a•negative•impact•on•performance,•with•only•18•per•cent•overall•
agreement.

The•Olympic•Games•is•not•widely•expected•to•affect•organisational•performance,•but•with•
the•majority•of•Olympic•activities•taking•place•in•London,•there•is•a•great•deal•of•regional•
differentiation•in•these•perceptions.•Despite•the•benefits•to•the•host•city,•36•per•cent•of•
managers•in•London•expect•there•to•be•a•negative•impact.




                                                                                                        6
Organisational             Considering•the•challenges•managers•expect•to•face•next•year,•it•would•appear•that•for•
      priorities            many•organisations•the•focus•for•the•next•12•months•will•be•less•on•thriving•than•on•
                            surviving•in•tough•conditions.•Controlling•costs•is•the•number•one•priority.



         80
80%

                       70
70%


60%
                                     55
50%
                                                   44            43
                                                                              40           38
40%
                                                                                                        33
30%


20%                                                                                                                  17             15
10%


0%

      Controlling    Managing     Increasing   Developing     Developing    Improving  Developing Restructuring Exploiting Becoming more
        costs       performance    turnover     strategic     our people    employee new products                the rise of environmentally
                                               partnerships                engagement and services              social media sustainable



                            Figure 4 Factors•seen•as•a•high•priority•in•the•next•12•months

                            Unsurprisingly,•these•priorities•are•different•for•managers•in•different•sectors•(see•Table•2).•
                            The•need•to•develop•strategic•partnerships•is•much•greater•for•those•in•the•public•and•
                            not-for-profit•sectors•(48•and•55•per•cent•respectively)•than•for•those•in•the•private•sector•
                            (39•per•cent),•reflecting•moves•towards•new•models•of•public•service•delivery.•While•
                            restructuring•comes•third•from•bottom•overall,•it•is•the•third•highest•priority•for•public•sector•
                            managers,•described•as•a•high•priority•by•59•per•cent.


                             Private sector                            Public sector                          Not-for-profit sector
                             Controlling•costs                         Controlling•costs                      Controlling•costs
                             Managing•performance                      Managing•performance                   Managing•performance
                             Increasing•turnover•                      Restructuring•                         Developing•strategic•
                                                                                                              partnerships
                             Developing•new•products••                 Developing•strategic•                  Developing•our•people•
                             and•services                              partnerships
                             Developing•our•people•                    Improving•employee•                    Increasing•turnover
                                                                       engagement


                            Table 2 Top•organisational•priorities•by•sector

                            Controlling•costs•is•also•the•top•priority•for•organisations•of•all•sizes.•However,•there•are•some•
                            differences•between•organisations•of•different•sizes.•Small•organisations•(1-50•employees)•
                            have•a•greater•focus•on•increasing•turnover•and•on•developing•new•products•and•services.•
                            Medium•and•large•organisations•appear•to•be•more•focused•on•managing•performance,•
                            developing•their•people•and•increasing•employee•engagement•in•the•coming•year.•For•
                            example,•only•36•per•cent•of•managers•in•small•organisations•describe•people•development•
                            as•a•high•priority,•compared•to•48•per•cent•across•medium•and•large•organisations.




                                                                                                                                               7
1-50 employees                       51-250 employees                        251-1000 employees                       1000+ employees
Controlling•costs                    Controlling•costs                       Controlling•costs                        Controlling•costs
Increasing•turnover                  Managing•performance                    Managing•performance                     Managing•performance
Managing•performance                 Developing•our•people                   Increasing•turnover                      Restructuring
Developing•strategic••               Increasing•turnover•                    Developing•our•people•                   Improving•employee•
partnerships                                                                                                          engagement
Developing•new•products••            Improving•employee•                     Developing•strategic•                    Developing•strategic•
and•services                         engagement                              partnerships                             partnerships


                            Table 3 Top•organisational•priorities•by•size

Fulfilling business         Do•managers•believe•they•have•the•right•people•in•place•to•meet•their•objectives•in•2012?
objectives in 2012          Overall,•only•half•of•managers•answered•yes•to•this•question,•five•per•cent•fewer•than•last•
                            year.•The•majority•of•private•sector•respondents•(61•per•cent)•believe•they•have•the•right•
                            people•in•place,•while•a•corresponding•figure•from•the•public•sector•disagree.•Managers•
                            from•the•not-for-profit•sector•are•more•evenly•divided•on•the•issue.
                            •


                                     Private sector                              33                             61

                                                                                                                                           No
                                      Public sector                   62                            29
                                                                                                                                           Yes


                                     Not-for-profit sector                  48                             46
                                                                                 Negative %   Positive %




                            Figure 5 Managers’•views•on•whether•their•organisation•has•the•right•people•to•fulfil•business•objectives
                                     in•2012•by•sector

                            To•help•explain•these•findings,•the•survey•asked•what•issues•they•faced.•Shortages•of•key•
                            skills•are•reported•by•60•per•cent,•followed•by•poor•leadership•and•poor•morale.
                            •

                                                                             Overall           Private               Public      Not-for-profit
                             Issue                                             %                 %                     %              %
                             Shortages•of•key•skills•                            60•              66•                  57•                50
                             Poor•leadership•                                    48•              38•                  59•                48
                             Poor•morale•                                        47•              36•                  65•                38
                             Lack•of•experience•                                 41•              41•                  40•                43
                             Not•enough•manpower•                                40•              37•                  43•                45
                             Lack•of•ability•to•innovate•                        37•              31•                  45•                36
                             Lost•people•through•redundancy•                     30•              16•                  51•                20
                             Personality•clashes•                                27•              26•                  26•                32
                             Too•many•people•                                     6•                4•                 10•                 4


                            Table 4 Issues•faced•through•not•having•the•right•people•(base•359)

                            As•Table•4•shows,•there•are•once•again•substantial•differences•between•the•sectors.•Poor•
                            morale•is•the•top•issue•facing•managers•in•the•public•sector•(65•per•cent),•perhaps•in•part•
                            because•of•the•greater•impact•of•redundancies,•reported•by•51•per•cent.




                                                                                                                                                  8
Lack•of•experience•is•a•growing•concern•for•managers•in•all•sectors.•Forty-one•per•cent•
                    cite•this•as•an•issue,•10•per•cent•higher•than•this•time•last•year.•In•addition,•insufficient•
                    manpower•is•a•concern•for•45•per•cent•of•not-for-profit•sector•managers,•up•from••
                    31•per•cent•last•year.•It•would•appear•that•many•organisations•are•struggling•to•deliver•
                    more•with•less•resource,•compounded•by•a•need•for•better•quality•leadership•and••
                    more•skilled•and•experienced•employees.


     Job security   Sixty-two•per•cent•of•respondents•report•feeling•secure•or•very•secure•in•their•jobs,•a•welcome•
   and job market   increase•on•the•52•per•cent•in•our•Economic Outlook3•report•two•months•ago.•However,•
      confidence    while•the•overall•number•of•managers•feeling•insecure•has•dropped•to•39•per•cent,•it•remains•
                    at•51•per•cent•of•public•sector•respondents,•reflecting•the•continued•impact•of•austerity•
                    measures•and•the•Government’s•reform•programme.

                    Managers’•confidence•in•the•jobs•market•is•also•low.•Only•37•per•cent•believe•that•they•
                    could•find•comparable•employment•within•three•months•if•they•were•to•lose•their•job.•
                    Public•sector•managers•feel•least•confident,•with•only•29•per•cent•feeling•that•they•could•
                    get•comparable•work•within•three•months•–•a•cause•for•concern•for•those•facing•further•
                    restructuring•and•redundancies.

                    Yet•it•is•managers•from•the•public•and•not-for-profit•sectors•who•are•most•likely•to•look••
                    for•a•new•job•in•2012,•with•47•and•49•per•cent•of•managers•in•these•sectors•indicating•
                    that•they•will•seek•new•employment.•This•compares•to•34•per•cent•in•the•private•sector.•
                    Managers•may•be•preparing•to•act•in•anticipation•of•further•redundancies•–•or•it•may•be•
                    that•the•problems•of•poor•morale•and•poor•leadership•reported•by•managers•in•those•
                    sectors•are•prompting•some•to•head•for•the•door.
                    •

    Redundancies    Feelings•of•job•insecurity•among•public•sector•managers•look•entirely•rational•given•that••
   and headcount    69•per•cent•are•expecting•redundancies•in•their•organisation•in•2012.•Although•the•outlook•
                    is•gloomy,•there•may•be•some•comfort•to•be•had•from•the•fact•that•these•figures•are•an•
                    improvement•on•last•year,•when•86•per•cent•of•public•sector•respondents•were•anticipating•
                    redundancies•in•their•organisation.•This•fall•is•reflected•across•all•sectors,•with•38•per•cent•in•
                    the•not-for-profit•sector•expecting•redundancies•in•the•year•ahead•(down•from•50•per•cent)•
                    and•just•18•per•cent•in•the•private•sector•(down•from•24•per•cent).•

                    This•year’s•survey•confirms•that•the•expectations•of•redundancies•last•year•were•reasonably•
                    accurate•(see•Table•5),•suggesting•2012•is•likely•to•be•another•unsettled•year.


                                                                   Managers whose
                               Managers expecting                 organisations made               Managers expecting
Sector                        redundancies in 20114              redundancies in 2011             redundancies in 2012
                                      %                                   %                               %
Public                                   86                                76                             69
Private                                  24                                29                             18
Not-for-profit                           50•                               52                             38•


                    Table 5 Expectation•and•experience•of•redundancy

                    This•year’s•survey•also•suggests•that•those•looking•for•new•employment•next•year•may•
                    struggle.•Only•a•quarter•of•managers•expect•their•organisation’s•headcount•to•increase••
                    in•2012.•Even•in•the•private•sector,•where•the•Government•hopes•jobs•and•growth•will••
                    be•created•to•counteract•losses•in•the•public•sector,•only•31•per•cent•of•managers•expect•
                    increased•headcount.


                    3•Pearson,•G.•et•al•(2011),•Economic Outlook,•Chartered•Management•Institute•
                    4•• utchings,•P.•&•Woodman,•P.,•(2010)•Future Forecast: Expectations for 2011,•
                      H
                      Chartered•Management•Institute
                    •                                                                                                    9
Priorities for           How•are•managers•intending•to•equip•themselves•with•the•skills•to•meet•the•challenges•
        professional            they•face•in•the•year•ahead?•The•top•priority•area•for•managers•looking•to•strengthen•their•
       development              skills•is•strategic•decision•making,•highlighted•by•38•per•cent•of•managers•across•all•sectors.•
                                Coaching•and•mentoring•was•the•second•most•common•area•where•managers•want•to•
                                improve•their•abilities,•especially•true•for•private•sector•managers.•


40%       38
                      36
35%                                  34
                                                   32          31        30
30%                                                                                     28
                                                                                                   27
                                                                                                               25           25
25%


20%                                                                                                                                      19

15%


10%


5%


0%
                                •
        Strategic   Coaching      Negotiating     Project  Performance  Change     Developing    Financial    Political Communication    Team
        decision      and       • and           management management management     others     management   astuteness               leadership
         making     mentoring     influencing


                                Figure 6 Professional•development•priorities•for•2012

                                Negotiation•and•influencing•skills•scored•highly,•as•did•project•management•which•is•a•
                                particularly•common•focus•for•public•sector•managers•(42•per•cent).•Change•management•
                                is•more•of•a•priority•for•managers•in•the•public•and•not-for-profit•sectors•reflecting•the•
                                higher•levels•of•restructuring•and•redundancies•that•have•taken•place.

                                When•examining•development•needs•according•to•management•level,•strategic•decision•
                                making•is•highlighted•by•all•managers•from•junior•roles•through•to•directors.•Coaching•and•
                                mentoring•skills•become•more•of•a•priority•from•middle•management•levels•upwards•while•
                                communication•and•negotiating•and•influencing•are•more•of•a•requirement•for•junior•managers.


      Approaches to             The•most•popular•approaches•for•developing•skills•in•the•coming•year•are•set•to•be•CPD•
       development              programmes,•on-the-job•learning,•in-house•training•and•informal•mentoring.•This•finding•is•
                                in•keeping•with•trends•depicted•in•the•UKCES•National•Employers•Skills•Survey•which•shows•
                                a•move•towards•development•which•is•more•tailored,•integrated•and•less•expensive.

                                 •                                                                              •                  %
                                 Continuous•Professional•Development•(CPD)•programme•                           •                  55
                                 On•the•job•learning•                                                           •                  55
                                 In-house•training•                                                             •                  34
                                 Informal•mentoring•                                                            •                  28
                                 Professional•qualification•                                                    •                  21
                                 Coaching•                                                                      •                  21
                                 Voluntary•opportunity•                                                         •                  15
                                 Academic•qualification•                                                        •                  10
                                 Secondment•                                                                    •                   3

                                Table 6 Managers’•approaches•to•skills•development


                                The•issues•surrounding•management•and•leadership•development•are•the•focus•of•a•major•
                                new•CMI/Penna•study•which•is•currently•ongoing.•It•will•shed•more•light•on•the•effectiveness•
                                of•a•range•of•development•methods•and•findings•will•be•published•early•in•2012.


                                                                                                                                                   10
Learning     With•learning•from•others•through•coaching,•mentoring•or•on-the-job•learning•seen•as•
   from others     valuable•by•many•respondents,•the•survey•asked•our•members•who•they•would•most•like•
                   to•shadow•for•a•day•as•part•of•their•development.•A•range•of•candidates•were•identified•
                   including•some•of•Britain’s•best-known•business•leaders•such•as•Sir•Richard•Branson,•
                   Lord•Sugar,•Peter•Jones•and•Sir•Terry•Leahy.•Managers•were•also•curious•about•the•lessons•
                   they•could•learn•from•shadowing•key•politicians•including•David•Cameron,•Boris•Johnson•
                   and•Vince•Cable.•But•many•responses•were•in•fact•closer•to•home,•with•managers•keen•to•
                   shadow•their•own•CEOs•or•senior•managers,•as•well•as•individuals•with•key•specialist•skills•
                   and•experience.•This•suggests•an•appetite•for•learning•and•improvement•which•organisations•
                   should•seek•to•capitalise•on.


Public policy in   Encouraging•economic•growth•has•been•at•the•top•of•the•political•agenda•and•in•recognition•
the year ahead     of•the•challenges•facing•organisations,•such•as•those•outlined•in•this•report,•the•Coalition•
                   Government•has•announced•a•range•of•proposals•designed•to•encourage•businesses•to•
                   hire•more•employees.•This•survey•assessed•CMI•members’•support•for•some•of•them.•

                   Despite•the•pressures•on•businesses•to•manage•their•costs,•the•survey•results•show•there•
                   is•strong•support•for•the•National•Minimum•Wage•for•all•workers,•including•those•interns•who•
                   are•currently•often•unpaid,•and•maintaining•its•level•for•young•people.•National•Insurance•
                   holidays•for•new•recruits•and•reduced•regulation•for•small•businesses•are•seen•as•favourable•
                   ways•of•encouraging•growth•in•employment.

                   Opinion•about•replacing•the•current•fair•dismissal•rules•to•make•it•easier•to•dismiss•staff••
                   is•divided,•perhaps•because•the•finer•details•of•how•this•could•be•achieved•have•not•been•
                   specified•amid•the•controversy•sparked•by•the•leaked•Beecroft•report.•The•introduction•of•
                   fees•for•employment•tribunals•is•only•backed•by•46•per•cent.

                   Professional•managers•also•remain•supportive•of•moves•to•increase•flexibility,•such•as•
                   extending•the•right•to•request•flexible•working.•There•is•a•similar•level•of•support•for•better•
                   relief•for•childcare•costs,•a•factor•sometimes•identified•as•affecting•the•ability•of•parents••
                   to•work.•Likewise,•reforming•the•rules•on•parental•leave•to•enable•more•sharing•between•
                   parents•is•a•popular•policy,•with•65•per•cent•overall•support.••

                   •
                        Ensuring interns receive
                                                                                        1                  81
                        the minimum wage
                        Offering National Insurance holidays for                    13                   79
                        businesses taking on additional employees
                        Offering National Insurance holidays                        13                 78
                        for businesses taking on young people
                        A moratorium on new regulations                             12                73
                        affecting small businesses
                        Reforming parental leave to enable                         26                 65        Support
                        more sharing between parents
                        Extending the right to                                 31                               Oppose
                                                                                                      64
                        request flexible working
                        Providing additional relief                            33                 56
                        for childcare costs
                        Replacing the current fair dismissal                   38                 54
                        rules to make it easier to dismiss staff

                         Introducing fees to employment tribunals              39                46
                        Extending the qualifying period for protection
                        for unfair dismissal from 1 to 2 years                47                 46

                        Reducing the minimum wage
                                                                         77                 16
                        for young people
                                                                          Negative %        Positive %


                   Figure 7 Level•of•support•for•workplace•law•and•reform•measures




                                                                                                                          11
Conclusion:•a•challenging•year•ahead
          Last•year,•our•survey•told•a•story•of•insufficient•skills,•poor•leadership•and•lack•of•manpower•
          negatively•affecting•organisational•performance.•This•year•is•no•different.•Looking•at•the•
          challenges•facing•the•UK,•there•is•every•reason•to•believe•that•these•problems•will•persist•
          into•the•coming•year.•Confronted•by•continued•domestic•economic•gloom,•instability•in•
          European•and•global•economies,•and•the•news•that•the•UK’s•structural•deficit•is•bigger•
          than•thought,•managers•face•a•myriad•of•challenges•in•delivering•performance•in•2012.•

          Yet•despite•the•problems•that•exist,•some•hope•may•be•drawn•from•the•striking•level•of•
          optimism•that•many•managers•feel•about•their•organisations’•prospects.•If•nothing•else,•
          managers•have•a•vital•role•to•play•in•creating•a•sense•of•enthusiasm•and•energy•within•their•
          teams,•generating•employee•engagement•for•facing•the•challenges•–•and•opportunities•
          –•that•next•year•may•bring.•Managers’•perseverance•and•resilience•will•be•put•to•the•test•
          and•once•again,•inspiring•leadership•will•be•at•a•premium•in•2012.

          To•give•their•managers•and•leaders•the•best•chance•of•delivering•the•levels•of•performance•
          required,•organisations•must•act•to•address•the•problems•of•insufficient•skills,•resource•and•
          leadership•that•managers•have•reported•in•this•survey.•They•must•also•help•managers•to•
          develop•the•skills•which•they•have•identified•as•key•development•priorities,•notably•strategic•
          decision-making,•coaching•and•mentoring,•and•negotiating•and•influencing.

          It•would•be•easy•for•managers•to•feel•powerless•in•the•face•of•the•unprecedented•
          uncertainty•and•instability•facing•the•global•economy.•Investing•in•their•development•needs•
          and•in•the•development•of•others•will•help•empower•managers•as•they•build•their•strategy•
          for•the•future.




                                                                                                        12
Chartered Management Institute
The•Chartered•Management•Institute•is•the•only•
chartered•professional•body•in•the•UK•dedicated•to•
promoting•the•highest•standards•of•management•
and•leadership•excellence.•CMI•sets•the•standard•
that•others•follow.

As•a•membership•organisation,•CMI•has•been•
providing•forward-thinking•advice•and•support•
to•individuals•and•businesses•for•more•than•
50•years,•and•continues•to•give•managers•and•
leaders,•and•the•organisations•they•work•in,•the•
tools•they•need•to•improve•their•performance•and•
make•an•impact.•As•well•as•equipping•individuals•
with•the•skills,•knowledge•and•experience•to•be•
excellent•managers•and•leaders,•CMI’s•products•
and•services•support•the•development•of•
management•and•leadership•excellence•across•
both•public•and•private•sector•organisations.

Through•in-depth•research•and•policy•surveys•of••
its•90,000•individual•and•450•corporate•members,•
CMI•maintains•its•position•as•the•premier•authority•
on•key•management•and•leadership•issues.•


For•more•information•please•contact
the•Policy•and•Research•Department•on:
Tel:•020 7421 2721
Fax:•020 7497 0463
Email:•research@managers.org.uk
Website:•www.managers.org.uk
or•write•to•us•at•the•address•below.




Chartered Management Institute
2•Savoy•Court,•Strand,
London,•WC2R•0EZ
Registered•charity•number•1091035
Incorporated•by•Royal•Charter
ISBN•0-85946-497-0•
©•Chartered•Management•Institute,•December•2011        4362•12/11

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CMI Future Forecast 2012

  • 2. Introduction 2011•began•with•high•hopes•that•the•economic•situation•was•improving•and•workplaces• would•start•to•feel•the•effects•of•recovery.•However,•as•this•report•shows,•it•has•clearly•been• another•very•difficult•year•for•UK•managers•–•and•2012•looks•set•to•be•equally•challenging. Despite•widespread•restructuring•and•redundancies•over•the•last•12•months,•nearly•half•of• UK•managers•are•expecting•further•redundancies•in•2012,•and•over•a•third•of•managers• feel•insecure•in•their•jobs.•As•a•result,•there•are•increasing•concerns•about•levels•of•morale• and•about•whether•organisations•have•the•people•with•the•skills•and•experience•needed• to•face•another•tough•year•ahead.• The•results•also•shed•some•light•on•managers’•priorities•for•2012•as•they•work•to•ensure• their•organisations•are•ready•to•face•a•range•of•external•factors•which•threaten•to•have•a• negative•impact•on•performance.•Operating•against•a•backdrop•of•European•economic• instability,•rising•energy•prices•and•domestic•austerity,•optimism•about•the•UK’s•economic• performance•for•2012•remains•low.•Looking•further•ahead,•however,•there•is•a•more•defiant• and•positive•outlook•among•some•managers•who•believe•that•their•own•organisations•are• still•set•to•prosper.•It•will•be•important•that•these•early•indicators•of•business•confidence•are• encouraged•and•are•used•to•stimulate•the•much•needed•investment•in•a•growth•agenda.• To•face•the•uncertain•times•ahead,•it•is•clear•that•the•quality•and•agility•of•managers•will• be•vital•in•2012.•Managers•will•need•to•able•to•adopt•new•strategies•and•lead•their•teams• through•the•impending•changes,•if•organisations•are•to•survive•the•tough•times•and•succeed• during•the•coming•year. Methodology Twenty•thousand•CMI•members•were•invited•to•complete•an•online•survey•during• November•2011.•A•total•of•774•responses•were•received•from•across•the•UK,•drawn•from• industry•sectors•across•the•economy•and•from•managers•at•a•range•of•levels•of•seniority• up•to•directors•and•chief•executives. Copyright•Chartered•Management•Institute•© First•published•2011 Chartered•Management•Institute 2•Savoy•Court,•Strand, London•WC2R•0EZ All•rights•reserved.•Except•for•the•quotation•of•short•passages•for•the•purposes•of•criticism•and• review,•no•part•of•this•publication•may•be•reproduced,•stored•in•a•retrieval•system,•or•transmitted,• in•any•form•or•by•any•means,•electronic,•mechanical,•photocopying,•recording•or•otherwise,• without•prior•permission•of•the•publisher. British•Library•Cataloguing•in•Publication•Data A•CIP•catalogue•record•for•this•report•is•available•from•the•British•Library ISBN•0-85946-497-0 2
  • 3. Executive•Summary •• Forty-three•per•cent•of•managers•feel•optimistic•about•their•organisation’s•prospects•for• next•year•–•yet•optimism•about•the•UK’s•economic•performance•as•a•whole•remains•low,• at•just•8•per•cent.• •• The•restructuring•of•the•public•finances,•the•price•of•energy•and•the•instability•of•the• euro•are•the•top•external•factors•expected•to•have•a•damaging•impact•on•organisations• in•2012. •• Managers’•top•priorities•for•the•year•ahead•include•controlling•costs,•managing• performance,•increasing•turnover,•developing•strategic•partnerships•and•developing• their•people.• •• The•public•sector•experienced•a•challenging•2011•and•it•is•clear•that•difficult•circumstances• are•set•to•continue,•with•69•per•cent•of•managers•anticipating•redundancies•in•2012•and• restructuring•ranked•as•the•number•one•management•priority•in•the•sector.•Poor•morale• is•cited•as•a•concern•by•65•per•cent•of•public•sector•managers,•compared•to•36•per•cent• of•private•sector•managers•and•38•per•cent•in•the•not-for-profit•sector.•• •• Managers•have•grave•concerns•over•their•organisations’•people•capabilities•–•43•per•cent• do•not•believe•their•organisation•has•the•right•people•to•fulfil•business•objectives•in•2012,• a•figure•unchanged•from•a•year•ago. •• For•organisations•that•do•not•have•the•right•people,•the•biggest•problem•is•a•shortage• of•key•skills.•Poor•leadership,•insufficient•experience•and•a•general•lack•of•manpower• are•also•substantial•concerns. •• Managers’•own•priorities•for•professional•development•include•strategic•decision•making,• coaching•and•mentoring,•negotiating•and•influencing,•project•management,•performance• management•and•change•management.• •• Job•insecurity•remains•high•with•39•per•cent•of•managers•feeling•insecure.•Unsurprisingly,• public•sector•managers•are•most•pessimistic•about•their•continued•employment.•When• asked•about•their•ability•to•secure•a•new•job•in•2012,•only•37•per•cent•of•all•managers• believe•they•could•find•comparable•employment•within•three•months.• 3
  • 4. Survey•Findings It•is•clear•that•2011•has•been,•for•many•managers,•a•difficult•year.•Thirty-two•per•cent• reported•that•their•organisation•had•been•in•decline,•slightly•more•than•those•reporting• growth•(30•per•cent),•with•38•per•cent•describing•their•organisation’s•performance•as•stable.• Comparison•with•the•figures•from•last•year’s•Future Forecast•survey1•reinforces•the•sense• of•continued•pressure•on•organisations,•as•the•number•of•those•reporting•decline•has• increased•by•six•percentage•points.•In•particular,•managers•in•the•public•sector•were•more• likely•to•report•decline•(42•per•cent)•than•those•in•the•private•sector•(29•per•cent)•and• not-for-profit•sector•(25•per•cent). While•the•majority•of•managers•(55•per•cent)•reported•that•the•performance•of•their• organisation•was•in•line•with•targets,•almost•a•third•(30•per•cent)•reported•that•their• organisation’s•performance•was•worse•than•had•been•forecast.•This•compares•with•• just•15•per•cent•of•organisations•that•exceeded•their•targets. Star performers Where•do•managers•look•for•examples•of•organisations•that•are•continuing•to•perform•• in 2011 well•in•these•challenging•times?•This•year’s•survey•asked•respondents•to•nominate•the• organisation•they•thought•was•best•managed•in•2011.•The•results•show•that•the•retail•sector• and•especially•supermarkets•are•seen•by•the•professional•management•community•to•be• performing•well,•along•with•the•Olympic•Delivery•Authority•and•companies•in•the•energy• sector,•the•airline•industry•and•financial•services•(see•Figure•1). Figure 1 Best•managed•organisations•in•2011 Optimism The•survey•asked•managers•how•optimistic•they•are•about•the•prospects•both•for•their• and pessimism organisation•and•for•the•economy•as•a•whole•during•the•next•year.•The•results•of•these• about 2012 two•questions•tell•very•different•stories.•While•almost•three•quarters•of•respondents•feel• pessimistic•about•the•economy,•only•one•third•feel•the•same•way•about•their•own• organisation’s•prospects.•Correspondingly,•43•per•cent•of•respondents•feel•optimistic• about•their•organisation’s•prospects•for•next•year•(a•10•per•cent•increase•compared•to•a• similar•question•in•our•Economic Outlook2•report•of•October•2011)•yet•only•eight•per•cent• are•optimistic•about•the•economy. • 1•• utchings,•P.•&•Woodman,•P.,•(2010)•Future Forecast: Expectations for 2011,• H Chartered•Management•Institute 2•Pearson,•G.•et•al•(2011),•Economic Outlook,•Chartered•Management•Institute• 4
  • 5. 80% 72 70% 60% 50% 43 Your organisation 40% 33 The economy 30% 24 20% 20 10% 8 0% Pessimistic Neither Optimistic Figure 2 Levels•of•optimism•for•organisational•and•economic•prospects•in•2012 The•causes•of•this•disparity•are•open•to•interpretation.•It•could•suggest•a•disconnect• between•perceptions•of•the•managers’•own•organisation•and•the•external•environment.• However,•nearly•half•of•these•optimists•experienced•growth•in•2011,•so•their•outlook•may• be•well-founded.•Public•sector•managers•are•much•more•pessimistic•about•their•prospects• for•next•year,•while•optimism•in•the•private•and•not-for-profit•sectors•is•stronger•(49•and•• 46•per•cent).•Whatever•the•reasons•for•this•variation•in•optimism,•the•signs•of•management• confidence•from•the•private•and•not-for-profit•sectors•are•to•be•welcomed. External threats Despite•this•optimism,•it•is•clear•that•managers•are•operating•in•a•tough•external•environment• to performance and•could•face•numerous•potential•threats•in•the•coming•year.•We•asked•which•of•these• factors•managers•felt•would•have•a•negative•impact•on•their•organisations’•performance. • 80% 70% 67 60% 59 50% 44 40% 30 29 30% 22 21 20% 18 17 10% 0% Restructuring Energy Instability of Social Trade union Technological Capacity of Competition Impact of of UK public prices the euro unrest activism change UK transport from China the Olympic finances infrastructure and other Games emerging economies Figure 3 Agreement•that•factors•will•have•a•negative•impact•on•organisational•performance 5
  • 6. The•reforms•being•made•to•the•UK’s•public•finances•are•causing•concern•for•managers• across•all•sectors,•particularly•for•those•in•the•public•sector•–•85•per•cent•of•whom•agree•that• this•will•have•a•negative•impact•on•their•organisation’s•performance.•Yet•it•is•also•the•top• concern•for•not-for-profit•sector•managers•(68•per•cent)•and•the•second•biggest•concern• for•private•sector•managers•(59•per•cent),•despite•the•Government’s•Big•Society•and•public• service•reform•agendas,•which•will•see•more•services•delivered•through•these•sectors. The•cost•of•energy•is•the•primary•concern•for•private•sector•respondents•(60•per•cent• agreement)•and•it•is•a•big•concern•across•all•sectors.•Just•over•half•of•private•sector• managers•expect•the•instability•of•the•euro•to•have•a•negative•impact•on•organisational• performance,•but•this•falls•to•37•per•cent•and•36•per•cent•in•the•not-for-profit•and•public• sectors•respectively.•Bigger•issues•for•the•public•sector•include•the•impact•of•social•unrest• (44•per•cent),•technological•change•(44•per•cent)•and•trade•union•activism•(42•per•cent). See•Table•1•below. Private sector Public sector Not-for-profit sector ••••• Energy•prices• Restructuring•of•• Restructuring•of•UK• UK•public•finances public•finances Restructuring•of•• Energy•prices• Energy•prices• UK•public•finances Instability•of•the•euro Technological•change Instability•of•the•euro Technological•change Social•unrest Social•unrest Capacity•of•UK•• Trade•union•activism Technological•change transport•infrastructure Table 1 Top•factors•expected•to•have•a•negative•impact•on•organisational•performance•by•sector A•relatively•low•number•of•managers•expect•competition•from•China•and•other•emerging• economies•to•have•a•negative•impact•on•performance,•with•only•18•per•cent•overall• agreement. The•Olympic•Games•is•not•widely•expected•to•affect•organisational•performance,•but•with• the•majority•of•Olympic•activities•taking•place•in•London,•there•is•a•great•deal•of•regional• differentiation•in•these•perceptions.•Despite•the•benefits•to•the•host•city,•36•per•cent•of• managers•in•London•expect•there•to•be•a•negative•impact. 6
  • 7. Organisational Considering•the•challenges•managers•expect•to•face•next•year,•it•would•appear•that•for• priorities many•organisations•the•focus•for•the•next•12•months•will•be•less•on•thriving•than•on• surviving•in•tough•conditions.•Controlling•costs•is•the•number•one•priority. 80 80% 70 70% 60% 55 50% 44 43 40 38 40% 33 30% 20% 17 15 10% 0% Controlling Managing Increasing Developing Developing Improving Developing Restructuring Exploiting Becoming more costs performance turnover strategic our people employee new products the rise of environmentally partnerships engagement and services social media sustainable Figure 4 Factors•seen•as•a•high•priority•in•the•next•12•months Unsurprisingly,•these•priorities•are•different•for•managers•in•different•sectors•(see•Table•2).• The•need•to•develop•strategic•partnerships•is•much•greater•for•those•in•the•public•and• not-for-profit•sectors•(48•and•55•per•cent•respectively)•than•for•those•in•the•private•sector• (39•per•cent),•reflecting•moves•towards•new•models•of•public•service•delivery.•While• restructuring•comes•third•from•bottom•overall,•it•is•the•third•highest•priority•for•public•sector• managers,•described•as•a•high•priority•by•59•per•cent. Private sector Public sector Not-for-profit sector Controlling•costs Controlling•costs Controlling•costs Managing•performance Managing•performance Managing•performance Increasing•turnover• Restructuring• Developing•strategic• partnerships Developing•new•products•• Developing•strategic• Developing•our•people• and•services partnerships Developing•our•people• Improving•employee• Increasing•turnover engagement Table 2 Top•organisational•priorities•by•sector Controlling•costs•is•also•the•top•priority•for•organisations•of•all•sizes.•However,•there•are•some• differences•between•organisations•of•different•sizes.•Small•organisations•(1-50•employees)• have•a•greater•focus•on•increasing•turnover•and•on•developing•new•products•and•services.• Medium•and•large•organisations•appear•to•be•more•focused•on•managing•performance,• developing•their•people•and•increasing•employee•engagement•in•the•coming•year.•For• example,•only•36•per•cent•of•managers•in•small•organisations•describe•people•development• as•a•high•priority,•compared•to•48•per•cent•across•medium•and•large•organisations. 7
  • 8. 1-50 employees 51-250 employees 251-1000 employees 1000+ employees Controlling•costs Controlling•costs Controlling•costs Controlling•costs Increasing•turnover Managing•performance Managing•performance Managing•performance Managing•performance Developing•our•people Increasing•turnover Restructuring Developing•strategic•• Increasing•turnover• Developing•our•people• Improving•employee• partnerships engagement Developing•new•products•• Improving•employee• Developing•strategic• Developing•strategic• and•services engagement partnerships partnerships Table 3 Top•organisational•priorities•by•size Fulfilling business Do•managers•believe•they•have•the•right•people•in•place•to•meet•their•objectives•in•2012? objectives in 2012 Overall,•only•half•of•managers•answered•yes•to•this•question,•five•per•cent•fewer•than•last• year.•The•majority•of•private•sector•respondents•(61•per•cent)•believe•they•have•the•right• people•in•place,•while•a•corresponding•figure•from•the•public•sector•disagree.•Managers• from•the•not-for-profit•sector•are•more•evenly•divided•on•the•issue. • Private sector 33 61 No Public sector 62 29 Yes Not-for-profit sector 48 46 Negative % Positive % Figure 5 Managers’•views•on•whether•their•organisation•has•the•right•people•to•fulfil•business•objectives in•2012•by•sector To•help•explain•these•findings,•the•survey•asked•what•issues•they•faced.•Shortages•of•key• skills•are•reported•by•60•per•cent,•followed•by•poor•leadership•and•poor•morale. • Overall Private Public Not-for-profit Issue % % % % Shortages•of•key•skills• 60• 66• 57• 50 Poor•leadership• 48• 38• 59• 48 Poor•morale• 47• 36• 65• 38 Lack•of•experience• 41• 41• 40• 43 Not•enough•manpower• 40• 37• 43• 45 Lack•of•ability•to•innovate• 37• 31• 45• 36 Lost•people•through•redundancy• 30• 16• 51• 20 Personality•clashes• 27• 26• 26• 32 Too•many•people• 6• 4• 10• 4 Table 4 Issues•faced•through•not•having•the•right•people•(base•359) As•Table•4•shows,•there•are•once•again•substantial•differences•between•the•sectors.•Poor• morale•is•the•top•issue•facing•managers•in•the•public•sector•(65•per•cent),•perhaps•in•part• because•of•the•greater•impact•of•redundancies,•reported•by•51•per•cent. 8
  • 9. Lack•of•experience•is•a•growing•concern•for•managers•in•all•sectors.•Forty-one•per•cent• cite•this•as•an•issue,•10•per•cent•higher•than•this•time•last•year.•In•addition,•insufficient• manpower•is•a•concern•for•45•per•cent•of•not-for-profit•sector•managers,•up•from•• 31•per•cent•last•year.•It•would•appear•that•many•organisations•are•struggling•to•deliver• more•with•less•resource,•compounded•by•a•need•for•better•quality•leadership•and•• more•skilled•and•experienced•employees. Job security Sixty-two•per•cent•of•respondents•report•feeling•secure•or•very•secure•in•their•jobs,•a•welcome• and job market increase•on•the•52•per•cent•in•our•Economic Outlook3•report•two•months•ago.•However,• confidence while•the•overall•number•of•managers•feeling•insecure•has•dropped•to•39•per•cent,•it•remains• at•51•per•cent•of•public•sector•respondents,•reflecting•the•continued•impact•of•austerity• measures•and•the•Government’s•reform•programme. Managers’•confidence•in•the•jobs•market•is•also•low.•Only•37•per•cent•believe•that•they• could•find•comparable•employment•within•three•months•if•they•were•to•lose•their•job.• Public•sector•managers•feel•least•confident,•with•only•29•per•cent•feeling•that•they•could• get•comparable•work•within•three•months•–•a•cause•for•concern•for•those•facing•further• restructuring•and•redundancies. Yet•it•is•managers•from•the•public•and•not-for-profit•sectors•who•are•most•likely•to•look•• for•a•new•job•in•2012,•with•47•and•49•per•cent•of•managers•in•these•sectors•indicating• that•they•will•seek•new•employment.•This•compares•to•34•per•cent•in•the•private•sector.• Managers•may•be•preparing•to•act•in•anticipation•of•further•redundancies•–•or•it•may•be• that•the•problems•of•poor•morale•and•poor•leadership•reported•by•managers•in•those• sectors•are•prompting•some•to•head•for•the•door. • Redundancies Feelings•of•job•insecurity•among•public•sector•managers•look•entirely•rational•given•that•• and headcount 69•per•cent•are•expecting•redundancies•in•their•organisation•in•2012.•Although•the•outlook• is•gloomy,•there•may•be•some•comfort•to•be•had•from•the•fact•that•these•figures•are•an• improvement•on•last•year,•when•86•per•cent•of•public•sector•respondents•were•anticipating• redundancies•in•their•organisation.•This•fall•is•reflected•across•all•sectors,•with•38•per•cent•in• the•not-for-profit•sector•expecting•redundancies•in•the•year•ahead•(down•from•50•per•cent)• and•just•18•per•cent•in•the•private•sector•(down•from•24•per•cent).• This•year’s•survey•confirms•that•the•expectations•of•redundancies•last•year•were•reasonably• accurate•(see•Table•5),•suggesting•2012•is•likely•to•be•another•unsettled•year. Managers whose Managers expecting organisations made Managers expecting Sector redundancies in 20114 redundancies in 2011 redundancies in 2012 % % % Public 86 76 69 Private 24 29 18 Not-for-profit 50• 52 38• Table 5 Expectation•and•experience•of•redundancy This•year’s•survey•also•suggests•that•those•looking•for•new•employment•next•year•may• struggle.•Only•a•quarter•of•managers•expect•their•organisation’s•headcount•to•increase•• in•2012.•Even•in•the•private•sector,•where•the•Government•hopes•jobs•and•growth•will•• be•created•to•counteract•losses•in•the•public•sector,•only•31•per•cent•of•managers•expect• increased•headcount. 3•Pearson,•G.•et•al•(2011),•Economic Outlook,•Chartered•Management•Institute• 4•• utchings,•P.•&•Woodman,•P.,•(2010)•Future Forecast: Expectations for 2011,• H Chartered•Management•Institute • 9
  • 10. Priorities for How•are•managers•intending•to•equip•themselves•with•the•skills•to•meet•the•challenges• professional they•face•in•the•year•ahead?•The•top•priority•area•for•managers•looking•to•strengthen•their• development skills•is•strategic•decision•making,•highlighted•by•38•per•cent•of•managers•across•all•sectors.• Coaching•and•mentoring•was•the•second•most•common•area•where•managers•want•to• improve•their•abilities,•especially•true•for•private•sector•managers.• 40% 38 36 35% 34 32 31 30 30% 28 27 25 25 25% 20% 19 15% 10% 5% 0% • Strategic Coaching Negotiating Project Performance Change Developing Financial Political Communication Team decision and • and management management management others management astuteness leadership making mentoring influencing Figure 6 Professional•development•priorities•for•2012 Negotiation•and•influencing•skills•scored•highly,•as•did•project•management•which•is•a• particularly•common•focus•for•public•sector•managers•(42•per•cent).•Change•management• is•more•of•a•priority•for•managers•in•the•public•and•not-for-profit•sectors•reflecting•the• higher•levels•of•restructuring•and•redundancies•that•have•taken•place. When•examining•development•needs•according•to•management•level,•strategic•decision• making•is•highlighted•by•all•managers•from•junior•roles•through•to•directors.•Coaching•and• mentoring•skills•become•more•of•a•priority•from•middle•management•levels•upwards•while• communication•and•negotiating•and•influencing•are•more•of•a•requirement•for•junior•managers. Approaches to The•most•popular•approaches•for•developing•skills•in•the•coming•year•are•set•to•be•CPD• development programmes,•on-the-job•learning,•in-house•training•and•informal•mentoring.•This•finding•is• in•keeping•with•trends•depicted•in•the•UKCES•National•Employers•Skills•Survey•which•shows• a•move•towards•development•which•is•more•tailored,•integrated•and•less•expensive. • • % Continuous•Professional•Development•(CPD)•programme• • 55 On•the•job•learning• • 55 In-house•training• • 34 Informal•mentoring• • 28 Professional•qualification• • 21 Coaching• • 21 Voluntary•opportunity• • 15 Academic•qualification• • 10 Secondment• • 3 Table 6 Managers’•approaches•to•skills•development The•issues•surrounding•management•and•leadership•development•are•the•focus•of•a•major• new•CMI/Penna•study•which•is•currently•ongoing.•It•will•shed•more•light•on•the•effectiveness• of•a•range•of•development•methods•and•findings•will•be•published•early•in•2012. 10
  • 11. Learning With•learning•from•others•through•coaching,•mentoring•or•on-the-job•learning•seen•as• from others valuable•by•many•respondents,•the•survey•asked•our•members•who•they•would•most•like• to•shadow•for•a•day•as•part•of•their•development.•A•range•of•candidates•were•identified• including•some•of•Britain’s•best-known•business•leaders•such•as•Sir•Richard•Branson,• Lord•Sugar,•Peter•Jones•and•Sir•Terry•Leahy.•Managers•were•also•curious•about•the•lessons• they•could•learn•from•shadowing•key•politicians•including•David•Cameron,•Boris•Johnson• and•Vince•Cable.•But•many•responses•were•in•fact•closer•to•home,•with•managers•keen•to• shadow•their•own•CEOs•or•senior•managers,•as•well•as•individuals•with•key•specialist•skills• and•experience.•This•suggests•an•appetite•for•learning•and•improvement•which•organisations• should•seek•to•capitalise•on. Public policy in Encouraging•economic•growth•has•been•at•the•top•of•the•political•agenda•and•in•recognition• the year ahead of•the•challenges•facing•organisations,•such•as•those•outlined•in•this•report,•the•Coalition• Government•has•announced•a•range•of•proposals•designed•to•encourage•businesses•to• hire•more•employees.•This•survey•assessed•CMI•members’•support•for•some•of•them.• Despite•the•pressures•on•businesses•to•manage•their•costs,•the•survey•results•show•there• is•strong•support•for•the•National•Minimum•Wage•for•all•workers,•including•those•interns•who• are•currently•often•unpaid,•and•maintaining•its•level•for•young•people.•National•Insurance• holidays•for•new•recruits•and•reduced•regulation•for•small•businesses•are•seen•as•favourable• ways•of•encouraging•growth•in•employment. Opinion•about•replacing•the•current•fair•dismissal•rules•to•make•it•easier•to•dismiss•staff•• is•divided,•perhaps•because•the•finer•details•of•how•this•could•be•achieved•have•not•been• specified•amid•the•controversy•sparked•by•the•leaked•Beecroft•report.•The•introduction•of• fees•for•employment•tribunals•is•only•backed•by•46•per•cent. Professional•managers•also•remain•supportive•of•moves•to•increase•flexibility,•such•as• extending•the•right•to•request•flexible•working.•There•is•a•similar•level•of•support•for•better• relief•for•childcare•costs,•a•factor•sometimes•identified•as•affecting•the•ability•of•parents•• to•work.•Likewise,•reforming•the•rules•on•parental•leave•to•enable•more•sharing•between• parents•is•a•popular•policy,•with•65•per•cent•overall•support.•• • Ensuring interns receive 1 81 the minimum wage Offering National Insurance holidays for 13 79 businesses taking on additional employees Offering National Insurance holidays 13 78 for businesses taking on young people A moratorium on new regulations 12 73 affecting small businesses Reforming parental leave to enable 26 65 Support more sharing between parents Extending the right to 31 Oppose 64 request flexible working Providing additional relief 33 56 for childcare costs Replacing the current fair dismissal 38 54 rules to make it easier to dismiss staff Introducing fees to employment tribunals 39 46 Extending the qualifying period for protection for unfair dismissal from 1 to 2 years 47 46 Reducing the minimum wage 77 16 for young people Negative % Positive % Figure 7 Level•of•support•for•workplace•law•and•reform•measures 11
  • 12. Conclusion:•a•challenging•year•ahead Last•year,•our•survey•told•a•story•of•insufficient•skills,•poor•leadership•and•lack•of•manpower• negatively•affecting•organisational•performance.•This•year•is•no•different.•Looking•at•the• challenges•facing•the•UK,•there•is•every•reason•to•believe•that•these•problems•will•persist• into•the•coming•year.•Confronted•by•continued•domestic•economic•gloom,•instability•in• European•and•global•economies,•and•the•news•that•the•UK’s•structural•deficit•is•bigger• than•thought,•managers•face•a•myriad•of•challenges•in•delivering•performance•in•2012.• Yet•despite•the•problems•that•exist,•some•hope•may•be•drawn•from•the•striking•level•of• optimism•that•many•managers•feel•about•their•organisations’•prospects.•If•nothing•else,• managers•have•a•vital•role•to•play•in•creating•a•sense•of•enthusiasm•and•energy•within•their• teams,•generating•employee•engagement•for•facing•the•challenges•–•and•opportunities• –•that•next•year•may•bring.•Managers’•perseverance•and•resilience•will•be•put•to•the•test• and•once•again,•inspiring•leadership•will•be•at•a•premium•in•2012. To•give•their•managers•and•leaders•the•best•chance•of•delivering•the•levels•of•performance• required,•organisations•must•act•to•address•the•problems•of•insufficient•skills,•resource•and• leadership•that•managers•have•reported•in•this•survey.•They•must•also•help•managers•to• develop•the•skills•which•they•have•identified•as•key•development•priorities,•notably•strategic• decision-making,•coaching•and•mentoring,•and•negotiating•and•influencing. It•would•be•easy•for•managers•to•feel•powerless•in•the•face•of•the•unprecedented• uncertainty•and•instability•facing•the•global•economy.•Investing•in•their•development•needs• and•in•the•development•of•others•will•help•empower•managers•as•they•build•their•strategy• for•the•future. 12
  • 13. Chartered Management Institute The•Chartered•Management•Institute•is•the•only• chartered•professional•body•in•the•UK•dedicated•to• promoting•the•highest•standards•of•management• and•leadership•excellence.•CMI•sets•the•standard• that•others•follow. As•a•membership•organisation,•CMI•has•been• providing•forward-thinking•advice•and•support• to•individuals•and•businesses•for•more•than• 50•years,•and•continues•to•give•managers•and• leaders,•and•the•organisations•they•work•in,•the• tools•they•need•to•improve•their•performance•and• make•an•impact.•As•well•as•equipping•individuals• with•the•skills,•knowledge•and•experience•to•be• excellent•managers•and•leaders,•CMI’s•products• and•services•support•the•development•of• management•and•leadership•excellence•across• both•public•and•private•sector•organisations. Through•in-depth•research•and•policy•surveys•of•• its•90,000•individual•and•450•corporate•members,• CMI•maintains•its•position•as•the•premier•authority• on•key•management•and•leadership•issues.• For•more•information•please•contact the•Policy•and•Research•Department•on: Tel:•020 7421 2721 Fax:•020 7497 0463 Email:•research@managers.org.uk Website:•www.managers.org.uk or•write•to•us•at•the•address•below. Chartered Management Institute 2•Savoy•Court,•Strand, London,•WC2R•0EZ Registered•charity•number•1091035 Incorporated•by•Royal•Charter ISBN•0-85946-497-0• ©•Chartered•Management•Institute,•December•2011 4362•12/11