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The 2011 Horizon Report
  Key Emerging Technologies
    Alan Levine • cogdogblog.com




                 cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by WanderingtheWorld (www.LostManProject.com):
                                            http://flickr.com/photos/chrisschoenbohm/5104367911/



    cogdogblog.com/stuff/astd11
cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by kk+: http://flickr.com/photos/kk/4983299/
Predicting is about
certainty, and
forecasting is about
appreciating
uncertainty.
Forecasting gives a
context for decision
makers to act in the
face of uncertainty. In
the business world
uncertainty is our
friend, because
uncertainty is
opportunity.
The Horizon Report
horizon.nmc.org
cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by Lady Pain (Marta Manso):
                                                                http://flickr.com/photos/ladypain/178384326/




cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by sd:
    http://flickr.com/photos/sd/7746599/                       cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by kev/null:
                                                                http://flickr.com/photos/kurioso/153495196/
cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by wili_hybrid: http://flickr.com/photos/wili/284074954/
cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by
                                                                                                       cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by Jartweb:
     eMotionblogster karolien taverniers: http://
                                                                                                      http://flickr.com/photos/jartweb/1472346841/
flickr.com/photos/emotionblogster/16298316/


                                                     cc licensed ( BY ) flickr photo by chefranden:
                                                            http://flickr.com/photos/chefranden/
                                                                                      5515093813/




                                            Three Horizons
cc licensed ( BY SD ) flickr photo by Neil T: http://flickr.com/photos/neilt/79065838/




moving along
cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by freshwater2006: http://flickr.com/photos/freshwater2006/693945631/




Horizon Process
Open Wiki
horizon.wiki.nmc.org
Topics
voting
Short List
http://horizon.wiki.nmc.org/2011+Short+List
www.nmc.org/publications/2011-horizon-report
Trends

•Abundance
•Expectations
•Collaborative
•The Cloud
Challenges
•Digital Media Literacy
•Evaluation Metrics
•Competition to
 Tradition
•Keeping Pace
cc licensed ( BY NC ND ) flickr photo by kxlly: http://flickr.com/photos/kxlly/349894433/




One Year or Less
ONE YEAR OR LESS:


Electronic Books
ONE YEAR OR LESS:


Mobiles
eBooks?



                                                                        mobiles?




            cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by dogfaceboy: http://flickr.com/photos/dogfaceboy/355798876//




Where is that unevenly distributed future?
cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by ronnie44052: http://flickr.com/photos/ronnie44052/2574261551/




Two to Three Years
TWO TO THREE YEARS:


Augmented Reality



      superstructing
                  superstructing




                 www.iftf.org                  Institute for the Future
                 Technology Horizons Program   124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
                 February, 2009 | SR-1221      Palo Alto, CA 94301
TWO TO THREE YEARS:
                              i ng & De ve l o pme n t
                      Tra i n
Game-Based Learning
Augmented Reality?




                                Games?




             cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by diluvium: http://flickr.com/photos/diluvium/165722011/




Where is that unevenly distributed future?
cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by blueforce4116: http://flickr.com/photos/blueforce4116/1398244602/




Four to Five Years
FOUR TO FIVE YEARS:


Gesture-Based Computing
FOUR TO FIVE YEARS:


Learning Analytics
Gesture-Based Computing?




                      Learning Analytics?



                 flickr photo by Jon Pawley: http://www.flickr.com/photos/jon_pawley/8697122/




Where is that unevenly distributed future?
cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by Marina Cast.: http://flickr.com/photos/marinacast/3878053449/




How to Participate
wp.nmc.org/horizon2011/
on.fb.me/horizon-project
delicious.com/tag/hz11
go.nmc.org/horizon-board
navigator.nmc.org
The 2011 Horizon Report
  Key Emerging Technologies
    Alan Levine • cogdogblog.com




                 cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by WanderingtheWorld (www.LostManProject.com):
                                            http://flickr.com/photos/chrisschoenbohm/5104367911/



    cogdogblog.com/stuff/astd11

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2011 Horizon Report (ASTD Presentation)

  • 1. The 2011 Horizon Report Key Emerging Technologies Alan Levine • cogdogblog.com cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by WanderingtheWorld (www.LostManProject.com): http://flickr.com/photos/chrisschoenbohm/5104367911/ cogdogblog.com/stuff/astd11
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by kk+: http://flickr.com/photos/kk/4983299/
  • 5. Predicting is about certainty, and forecasting is about appreciating uncertainty. Forecasting gives a context for decision makers to act in the face of uncertainty. In the business world uncertainty is our friend, because uncertainty is opportunity.
  • 7.
  • 8. cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by Lady Pain (Marta Manso): http://flickr.com/photos/ladypain/178384326/ cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by sd: http://flickr.com/photos/sd/7746599/ cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by kev/null: http://flickr.com/photos/kurioso/153495196/
  • 9. cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by wili_hybrid: http://flickr.com/photos/wili/284074954/
  • 10. cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by cc licensed ( BY NC SD ) flickr photo by Jartweb: eMotionblogster karolien taverniers: http:// http://flickr.com/photos/jartweb/1472346841/ flickr.com/photos/emotionblogster/16298316/ cc licensed ( BY ) flickr photo by chefranden: http://flickr.com/photos/chefranden/ 5515093813/ Three Horizons
  • 11. cc licensed ( BY SD ) flickr photo by Neil T: http://flickr.com/photos/neilt/79065838/ moving along
  • 12. cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by freshwater2006: http://flickr.com/photos/freshwater2006/693945631/ Horizon Process
  • 18.
  • 20. Challenges •Digital Media Literacy •Evaluation Metrics •Competition to Tradition •Keeping Pace
  • 21. cc licensed ( BY NC ND ) flickr photo by kxlly: http://flickr.com/photos/kxlly/349894433/ One Year or Less
  • 22. ONE YEAR OR LESS: Electronic Books
  • 23. ONE YEAR OR LESS: Mobiles
  • 24. eBooks? mobiles? cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by dogfaceboy: http://flickr.com/photos/dogfaceboy/355798876// Where is that unevenly distributed future?
  • 25. cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by ronnie44052: http://flickr.com/photos/ronnie44052/2574261551/ Two to Three Years
  • 26. TWO TO THREE YEARS: Augmented Reality superstructing superstructing www.iftf.org Institute for the Future Technology Horizons Program 124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor February, 2009 | SR-1221 Palo Alto, CA 94301
  • 27. TWO TO THREE YEARS: i ng & De ve l o pme n t Tra i n Game-Based Learning
  • 28. Augmented Reality? Games? cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by diluvium: http://flickr.com/photos/diluvium/165722011/ Where is that unevenly distributed future?
  • 29. cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by blueforce4116: http://flickr.com/photos/blueforce4116/1398244602/ Four to Five Years
  • 30. FOUR TO FIVE YEARS: Gesture-Based Computing
  • 31. FOUR TO FIVE YEARS: Learning Analytics
  • 32. Gesture-Based Computing? Learning Analytics? flickr photo by Jon Pawley: http://www.flickr.com/photos/jon_pawley/8697122/ Where is that unevenly distributed future?
  • 33. cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by Marina Cast.: http://flickr.com/photos/marinacast/3878053449/ How to Participate
  • 39. The 2011 Horizon Report Key Emerging Technologies Alan Levine • cogdogblog.com cc licensed ( BY NC ) flickr photo by WanderingtheWorld (www.LostManProject.com): http://flickr.com/photos/chrisschoenbohm/5104367911/ cogdogblog.com/stuff/astd11