This document discusses the importance of preparing for multiple possible futures and not just planning for a single likely future. It suggests taking an outside-in perspective to consider different views, being aware of disruptive forces, and using techniques like crowd-sourcing and scenario planning to shape various what-if scenarios. The key skills needed include examining issues and possible futures through imagination and different perspectives, identifying trends, and delaying strategic decisions to allow for new views to emerge.

1. Preparing for Multiple Futures
Steve O’Connor
Be aware of multiple futures
Are multiple futures really possible?
- Perception more important than reality
- Value that is not valued is not valuable
- Patrons do not need Librarians as they once did
- Immediacy of information
The long view
Outside-in thinking
multiple perspectives
allow time to come to a new view
The path to the present is not linear.
Branding and marketing
Strategic planning. Not just planning for one future
Creativity is a verb.
In order to see futures, we need to be outsiders.
Outside perspectives.
*Innocentive* crowd sourcing innovation
Users as outsiders as well.
Suggested read Social Psychology. Don’t read library mags/literature for an outside view.

2. Institute for global futures.
How to shape ‘What if’s’
Disruptive forces.
*Future files – Richard Watson*
Extinction summaries:
2018: Libraries, Blackberries, video rentals
2020: Copyright
2025: Desktop computers, blogging.
If libraries are extinct, is the librarian extinct.
Innovators dilemma
Organisations capabilities define is disabilities.
Symantic web 3.0
The notion behind a library is Trust.
Potential disruptions
Extreme future.
Knowledge engineering
The capacity of one organisation to understand key trends that will shape the future.
Print | Digital | Web %no. of information delivered into the library.

3. Open access
Plan for the next three years?
What is happening to content.
Worst case scenarios.
Precautionary principles.
Difference between 1% and certainty
If we’re looking for better, what could be worse, far worse.
Analytic + intuitive
Most will ignore low probablility and high consequence.
Does a future generation have rights?
A responsibility to future generations to have better outcome than we had? Do we have obligations.
Community/research/stories/different scenarios.
Preferred library future.
Skills needed/intelligences:
Examine: Techniques to align issues and possible futures
use of our imagination
Delay, delay, delay strategic
Do not dismiss ideas
Identify trends and influences.
The future isn’t what it used to be
Possibilites abound.
Good futures just don’t happen.