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Q4 2018 | Austin Office | Research & Forecast Report
1. Research &
Forecast Report
AUSTIN | OFFICE
Q4 2018
Kaitlin Holm Research and Marketing Coordinator | Austin
Boots On The Ground Commentary by Alex Durham
Our “Boots on the Ground” viewpoint is the voice of our experts, who
have broken down the market data and compared it to what they are
seeing for themselves. This is their take on what the numbers actually
mean for the Austin office market.
Austin’s office market continues to be one of the hottest and most
desired in the country. Q4 recorded positive net absorption for
the second quarter in a row, which balances out the negative
net absorption we saw in the first two quarters of the year and
brought the year to date net absorption up to 29,762 SF. With
absorption ticking up in Q4, vacancy rates continue to drop,
settling at 11.5% market wide by the end of Q4 and causing
average rents to rise slightly along with operating expenses (due
to increasing building values/taxes).
A major highlight of Q4 was the announcement of Apple’s
3,000,000 SF campus in North Austin. The announcement
will undoubtedly have a positive ripple effect on the Northwest
Austin submarket and is evidence of the continued optimism in
Austin’s thriving economy. To that end, we expect to see several
other notable tech giants follow suit with commitments to large
blocks of space. Almost every big block of space (on the ground
and under construction) is currently trading paper with large
corporate users. Recent experience shows that competition for
these large blocks is tremendous. Regardless of credit and size,
for our client’s best interest, we work multiple transactions for
each need as the likelihood of getting pushed due to a bigger deal
coming along is becoming a common occurrence.
Another notable development trend is the amount of new product
set to break ground in the previously sparse South Austin
submarket. There are currently several hundred thousand square
feet of new office development set to break ground or currently
under construction on South Congress alone, with a plethora of
opportunity for more product in the area. Due to extremely high
construction costs and demand to be near the core, but not in the
core (parking), rates on these projects are starting to approach
those in the CBD.
Austin’s office market ends 2018 with higher
rental rates and higher absorption
Future Forecast
There is no current evidence for a market slowdown in 2019,
as the Austin and Texas economy remained strong in Q4 with
unemployment continuing to hover at historically low levels.
Construction levels are at an all-time high in Austin, with many
developers building spec and delivering 80% - 100% preleased.
Austin’s growth continues to be diversified across an array of
industries and features a healthy mix of organic growth as well as
growth from out of state, primarily California.
By The Numbers
TOTAL INVENTORY
52.0M SF
TOTAL VACANCY
11.5%
Q4 NET ABSORPTION
163,796 SF
YTD NET ABSORPTION
29,762 SF
TOTAL UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
4.26M SF
TOTAL PRE-LEASED
2.5M SF
CBD CLASS A
$57.54as tracked by Colliers
SUBURBAN
CLASS A
$38.34
AVERAGE
RATE/SF
$36.19
*Rates inclusive of estimated operating expenses.
2. 2
Austin Office Overview
In the fourth quarter of 2018, Austin’s office market reported
163,796 SF of positive net absorption. The majority of the positive
absorption occured in Class A buildings with a total of 129,775 SF
of positive net absorption. Class B buildings in Austin posted 28,191
SF of positive net absorption, while Class C properties posted
5,830 SF of positive net absorption.
There is currently 4,262,639 SF of office space under construction
and 2,555,293 SF of that is preleased. The first quarter of 2019
is expected to see 1,527,211 SF of deliveries and 78% of that is
preleased. One of the buildings set to deliver in the first quarter of
2019 is Domain 11. The entire 315,862 SF building is already 100%
leased with HomeAway taking 308,815 SF.
The Third + Shoal building in the CBD submarket was the largest
building to deliver in the fourth quarter. This 347,637 SF building
delivered in December and is 99.7% leased. Domain Tower, in the
North/Domain submarket, was the second largest building to deliver
in the fourth quarter. The 309,883 SF building was 100% leased
when it delivered in October. Looking forward, the first quarter of
2019 is expected to see seventeen new buildings deliver.
The citywide average rental rate increased over the quarter from
$35.33 per SF in Q3 2018 to $36.19 per SF in Q4 2018. Class A
rental rates in Austin’s CBD increased by 2.0% over the quarter
to $51.47 per SF up from $50.45 per SF in the third quarter of
2018. The overall suburban Class A rental rate also increased, from
$36.96 per SF to $38.34 per SF, over the quarter.
In December, Apple announced that it would be building a new
133-acre campus in Austin. The campus will be located about a
mile from its current campus with the ability to accommodate up
to 15,000 employees. “Their decision to expand operations in our
state is a testament to the high-quality workforce and unmatched
economic environment that Texas offers. I thank Apple for this
tremendous investment in Texas, and I look forward to building
upon our strong partnership to create an even brighter future for
the Lone Star State,” said Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
Vacancy & Availability
Austin’s citywide vacancy rate decreased from 10.6% in the third
quarter of 2018 to 10.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The CBD
Class A vacancy rate slid from 7.2% in the third quarter of 2018 to
6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The suburban Class A vacancy
rate shrank quarter over quarter from 10.9% to 10.7%.
Overall suburban vacancy decreased quarter over quarter from
11.6% in Q3 2018 to 11.4% in Q4 2018. The submarkets that
recorded an increase in vacancy over the quarter include Central,
Far Northwest and Southwest. The Far Northwest submarket
reported the largest increase in vacancy, climbing from 6.8% to
8.8% over the quarter. Most submarkets recorded a decrease
in vacancy, but the Round Rock submarket recorded the largest
decrease, falling from 13.2% to 6.4%.
2 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2018 | Office | Colliers International
Market Indicators
Relative to prior period
Annual
Change
Quarterly
Change
Quarterly
Forecast*
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
NEW CONSTRUCTION
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
*Projected
Summary Statistics
Austin Office Market Q4 2017 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
Vacancy Rate 9.8% 10.6% 10.3%
Net Absorption
(Million Square Feet)
.449 .336 .163
New Construction
(Million Square Feet)
.443 .346 1.45
Under Construction
(Million Square Feet)
3.84 3.98 4.26
Class A Vacancy Rate
CBD
Suburban
10.8%
10.2%
7.2%
10.9%
6.2%
10.7%
Gross Asking Rents
Per Square Foot Per Year
Average $34.80 $35.33 $36.19
CBD Class A $50.97 $50.45 $51.47
Suburban Class A $36.08 $36.96 $38.34
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
ANNUAL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY
3. $0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
CBD Rents Suburban Rents
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
CBD Vacancy Suburban Vacancy
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
Absorption & Demand
Austin’s office market posted 163,796 square feet of positive net
absorption in Q4 2018. The submarkets that experienced gains over
the quarter include Central, East, Far Northwest, Northwest and
Southeast.
A majority of the positive net absorption over the quarter occurred
in the Class A CBD submarket, totaling 113,705 square feet of
absorption. Most of this can be attributed to Facebook moving into
its 231,506 SF space at the recently delivered Third + Shoal (208
Nueces Street).
Even though the Austin office market recorded negative absorption
through the first two quarters of the year, the year closed out with
29,762 of positive net absorption.
The CBD, North/Domain and Southwest submarkets each recorded
five leases for spaces 10,000 square feet or larger in the fourth
quarter. In the CBD, Industrious signed a lease for 23,659 square
feet at 823 Congress Avenue. In the North/Domain submarket,
Amazon signed a lease for 144,890 square feet. They will be taking
four floors at Domain 10, which is set to deliver in 2020.
Rental Rates
According to CoStar, our data provider, Austin’s citywide average
rental rate increased 2.43% over the quarter up from $35.33 per
SF to $36.19 per SF.
As expected, the highest rates across the Austin office market in
the fourth quarter were in CBD Class A buildings where rental rates
averaged $51.47 per SF. Rental rates were also high in the South
and West Central submarkets where Class A rental rates reached
$42.58 per SF and $45.23 per SF, respectively.
Citywide Class B rental rates increased in Q4 to $31.20 per SF
from $30.10 per SF in Q3. CBD Class B rental rates increased by
2.5% over the quarter from $45.02 per SF to $46.16 per SF in Q4
2018.
3 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2018 | Office | Colliers International
UNEMPLOYMENT 11/17 11/18
AUSTIN 2.8% 2.7%
TEXAS 3.8% 3.5%
U.S. 3.9% 3.5%
JOB GROWTH
Annual
Change
# of Jobs
Added
AUSTIN 3.3% 35.2K
TEXAS 3.9% 360.0K
U.S. 1.7% 2.5M
CBD vs. Suburban
CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY
CLASS A OFFICE RENTS
Job Growth & Unemployment
(not seasonally adjusted)
QUARTERLY ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY
4. 44 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2018 | Office | Colliers International
Q4 2018 Top Office Lease Transactions
BUILDING ADDRESS SUBMARKET SF TENANT LEASE DATE
11815 Alterra Pky North/Domain 144,890 Amazon Dec-18
6800 Burleson Rd Southeast 115,043 Unknown Dec-18
1122 S Capital of Texas Hwy Southwest 78,983 Unknown Nov-18
8201 N FM 620 Far Northwest 50,000 Corning Dec-18
10801 N MoPac Expy North/Domain 29,302 CCC Information Services Nov-18
901 E 6th St East 28,981 Unknown Nov-18
2301 E Riverside Dr Southeast 28,619 Lutron Dec-18
310 Comal St East 27,486 Unknown Oct-18
6800 Burleson Rd Southeast 27,209 Zoho Oct-18
11700 Stonehollow Dr North 26,865 Unknown Oct-18
522 N Congress Ave CBD 24,510 Unknown Dec-18
823 Congress Ave CBD 23,659 Industrious Dec-18
111 Congress Ave CBD 23,108 Unknown Dec-18
11001 Lakeline Blvd Cedar Park 20,367 Unknown Dec-18
7500 Rialto Blvd Southwest 19,845 Unknown Oct-18
5000 Plaza On The Lake Dr Southwest 19,206 Unknown Dec-18
8501 N Mopac Expy Central 16,412 Texas Oncology Oct-18
8501 N Mopac Expy Central 16,212 Physician Reliance, LLC Oct-18
8601 Ranch Road 2222 Northwest 14,980 Unknown Nov-18
Leasing Activity
Austin’s office market recorded 977,144 SF of leasing activity in Q4 2018. Major transactions this quarter included Amazon leasing half of
Domain 10 (11815 Alterra Parkway), which won’t deliver until 2020, and Corning signing for 50,000 SF at 8201 North FM 620.
Q4 2018 Significant Sales Transactions – (100,000 SF or greater)
BUILDING ADDRESS SUBMARKET RBA (SF) YEAR BUILT BUYER SELLER SALE PRICE $/SF CLOSED
11305 Four Points Dr1,2
192,396 2007
Brandywine Realty
Trust
DRA Advisors $77,449,307.10 $403.00 Dec-18
1501 S Mo Pac Expwy1,2
786,845 2001
Brandywine Realty
Trust
DRA Advisors $223,454,090.70 $284.00 Dec-18
6500 River Place Blvd1,2
586,500 2000
Brandywine Realty
Trust
DRA Advisors $236,096,481.40 $403.00 Dec-18
Seton Center - 4516 Seton
Center Pkwy
120,559 1998
Brandywine Co
Props
Riverside Resources
Corp
$39,500,000.00 $328.00 Dec-18
Summit at Lantana - 7171
Southwest Pkwy
812,350
2008 HPI Real Estate
LaSalle, Spear Street
Capital
Undisclosed N/A Dec-18
Prominent Pointe II - 5550
Bluffstone Dr1,2 101,365 2008 Walton Street Capital GLL RE Partners $33,375,011.30 $329.00 Dec-18
Prominent Pointe I - 8310
Capital of Texas Hwy1,2 149,200 1986 Walton Street Capital GLL RE Partners $49,124,961.10 $329.00 Dec-18
Sales Activity
Austin’s office investment sales activity included seven transactions, with five of them being a part of two different portfolio transactions.
One of the portfolios included Walton Street Capital purchasing both Prominent Pointe I & II from GLL RE Partners for a total of
$82,500,000 (or $329 per SF). One of the stand alone purchases was Brandywine Co Props buying Seton Center from Riverside
Resources Corp for $39,500,000.
Sources: CoStar and Real Capital Analytics
1
Part of a portfolio 2
Sale Price is Approximate
5. 5 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2018 | Office | Colliers International
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Chart Title–One Line
Chart Title
SUBHEAD 1 SUBHEAD 1 SUBHEAD 1 SUBHEAD 1
Body
INVENTORY DIRECT VACANCY
SUBLEASE
VACANCY
VACANCY VACANCY RATE (%)
NET ABSORPTION
(SF)
RENTAL
RATE
CLASS
# OF
BLDGS
TOTAL (SF) (SF)
RATE
(%)
(SF)
RATE
(%)
TOTAL
(SF)
Q4-2018 Q3-2018 Q4-2018 Q3-2018
AVG ($/
SF)
CBD
A 31 7,750,812 453,508 5.9% 23,889 0.3% 477,397 6.2% 7.2% 82,385 206,205 $51.47
B 37 2,910,640 180,007 6.2% 9,203 0.3% 189,210 6.5% 7.3% 22,555 53,623 $46.16
C 8 415,436 10,798 2.6% 7,015 1.7% 17,813 4.3% 6.4% 8,765 -1,819 $29.30
Total 76 11,076,888 644,313 5.8% 40,107 0.4% 684,420 6.2% 7.2% 113,705 258,009 $49.46
SUBURBAN
A 183 20,719,430 1,747,082 8.4% 468,143 2.3% 2,215,225 10.7% 10.9% 47,390 192,763 $38.34
B 336 17,278,560 2,066,262 12.0% 142,976 0.8% 2,209,238 12.8% 12.8% 5,363 -92,669 $29.73
C 59 3,016,065 241,600 8.0% 25,739 0.9% 267,339 8.9% 8.8% -2,935 -21,423 $24.06
Total 578 41,014,055 4,054,944 9.9% 636,858 1.6% 4,691,802 11.4% 11.6% 49,818 78,671 $34.21
OVERALL
A 214 28,470,242 2,200,590 7.7% 492,032 1.7% 2,692,622 9.5% 9.9% 129,775 398,968 $40.46
B 373 20,189,200 2,246,269 11.1% 152,179 0.8% 2,398,448 11.9% 12.0% 28,191 -39,046 $31.20
C 67 3,431,501 252,398 7.4% 32,754 1.0% 285,152 8.3% 8.5% 5,830 -23,242 $24.52
Total 654 52,090,943 4,699,257 9.0% 676,965 1.3% 5,376,222 10.3% 10.6% 163,796 336,680 $36.19
INVENTORY
DIRECT
VACANCY
SUBLEASE
VACANCY
VACANCY VACANCY RATE (%) NET ABSORPTION (SF)
RENTAL
RATE
CLASS
# OF
BLDGS
TOTAL (SF) (SF)
RATE
(%)
(SF)
RATE
(%)
TOTAL
(SF)
Q4-2018 Q3-2018 Q4-2018 Q3-2018
AVG ($/
SF)
CEDAR PARK
A 2 232,274 25,594 11.0% 0 0.0% 25,594 11.0% 12.4% 3,269 0 $34.05
B 3 142,000 12,000 8.5% 0 0.0% 12,000 8.5% 8.5% 0 0 $25.68
Total 5 374,274 37,594 10.0% 0 0.0% 37,594 10.0% 10.9% 3,269 0 $31.55
CENTRAL .
A 3 474,288 37,493 7.9% 22,765 4.8% 60,258 12.7% 14.5% 8,506 -13,403 $42.67
B 34 1,906,942 227,117 11.9% 34,900 1.8% 262,017 13.7% 8.4% -101,319 -22,424 $30.47
C 13 795,267 40,237 5.1% 0 0.0% 40,237 5.1% 1.6% 27,308 2,679 $25.99
Total 50 3,176,497 304,847 9.6% 57,665 1.8% 362,512 11.4% 7.6% -65,505 -33,148 $30.75
EAST
A 2 88,212 8,417 9.5% 1,080 1.2% 9,497 10.8% 10.8% 0 -9,497 $40.55
B 14 834,852 156,881 18.8% 0 0.0% 156,881 18.8% 18.7% -716 -53,882 $42.84
C 5 167,662 5,068 3.0% 0 0.0% 5,068 3.0% 3.0% 0 -5,068 $33.00
Total 21 1,090,726 170,366 15.6% 1,080 0.1% 171,446 15.7% 15.7% -716 -68,447 $41.86
FAR NORTHEAST
B 1 23,408 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
Total 1 23,408 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
FAR NORTHWEST
A 15 2,206,695 133,517 6.1% 55,611 2.5% 189,128 8.6% 7.0% -35,639 107,546 $33.58
B 8 303,144 32,962 10.9% 0 0.0% 32,962 10.9% 4.3% -20,027 -20,027 $19.72
C 3 139,876 7,330 5.2% 3,535 2.5% 10,865 7.8% 9.5% 2,400 0 $21.77
Total 26 2,649,715 173,809 6.6% 59,146 2.2% 232,955 8.8% 6.8% -53,266 87,519 $31.83
Austin Suburban Office Market Summary
Austin Office Market Summary (CBD, Suburban, & Overall)
7. 7 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2018 | Office | Colliers International
Office Development Pipeline
4,262,639 square feet of office space was under construction during Q4 2018. The largest of the seven buildings to deliver in Q4 was
Third + Shoal (208 Nueces Street), a 347,637 square foot building in the CBD. Sixteen buildings were given the green light to begin
construction in the fourth quarter. Within those sixteen buildings, over one million square feet is already preleased.
BUILDING NAME ADDRESS SUBMARKET SF
PRE-
LEASED
DEVELOPER
EST.
DELIVERY
Block 71 200 W 6th St CBD 669,130 45.7% Trammell Crow Central Texas Ltd Apr-21
Domain 12 3110 Esperanza Xing North/Domain 320,102 100.0% TIER REIT, Inc. Dec-19
Domain 11 3110 Esperanza Xing North/Domain 315,862 100.00% Endeavor Real Estate Group Jan-19
Domain 10 11815 Alterra Pky North/Domain 299,673 49.5% Endeavor Real Estate Group Jan-20
Highland 3 523 E Highland Blvd Central 250,000 100.0% Unknown Feb-20
Preserve at 620 8201 N FM 620 Far Northwest 226,329 42.6% PacVentures, Inc. Jan-19
Parmer 3.3 13011 McCallen Pass Northeast 204,400 100.0% Trammell Crow Company Jan-19
Four Points Centre, Phase II - Building 3 11120 Four Points Dr Far Northwest 170,000 100.0% Unknown Feb-19
Offices At Saltillo 901 E 5th St East 150,000 0.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Jun-19
SXSW Center 1400 Lavaca St CBD 140,000 28.2% Greenbelt Commercial Jun-19
1801 E 6th St 1801 E 6th St East 134,367 87.7% Riverside Resources Feb-19
901 E 6th St 901 E 6th St East 129,444 70.8% Pegalo Properties Jan-19
Rollingwood Town Center Phase III 2500 Bee Caves Rd Southwest 128,000 5.8% Endeavor Real Estate Group Feb-20
East6 2010 E 6th St East 115,000 100.0% AQUILA Commercial Apr-19
Saint Elmo Plaza 4223 S Congress Ave South 105,000 4.8% Maker Bros Apr-20
Foundry 310 Comal St East 75,369 70.2% Cielo Realty Partners Feb-19
Met Center Creative Office-Building A NEC Of Metropolis Dr &
Me Rd
Southeast 71,225 0.0% Zydeco Development Jun-19
Met Center Creative Office-Building B NEC Of Metropolis Dr &
Me Rd
Southeast 67,625 0.0% Zydeco Development Jun-19
1141 Shady Ln 1141 Shady Ln East 64,674 14.3% Unknown Jun-19
Mesa Creek 801 E Old Settlers Blvd Round Rock 59,510 5.9% Halff Associates Feb-19
Building 1 1100 S Congress Ave South 53,389 47.4% Endeavor Real Estate Group Oct-19
Building 3 1200 Sheldon Cv Northeast 50,826 100.0% Unknown Jan-19
CityView 1007 S Congress Ave South 50,000 100.0% Turnbridge Equities Apr-19
Local Construcion Overview
Construction costs continue to increase throughout Austin. Below is a breakdown of the cost per SF and duration for projects, that range
in size and scope, completed by our Project Management team in 2018:
AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
BUDGET $64.98/RSF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
TIMELINE 27.7 WEEKS
$41.39
$6.26
$6.91
$6.85
$4.47
9.6 3.6 3.3 10.6 0.6