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Q4 2011 - Cincinnati Retail
1. Q4 2011 | RETAIL
CINCINNATI, OH
THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT
2011 PROVES TO BE
A STRONG YEAR FOR RETAIL
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2011 ended on a good note for the Greater Cincinnati retail market as overall net absorption
totaled 78,540 square feet for the quarter. This pushed yearend net absorption to 630,236
square feet and the vacancy rate for all retail property types totaled 12.8%. Several
submarkets helped fuel the momentum throughout the year, including the CBD/Midtown
Submarket, Tri-County’s North Central Submarket and the West Submarket.
Although demand remained strong, the average overall asking rate for retail space dropped
MARKET INDICATORS slightly to $11.55 per square foot. This was a clear sign that owners of retail properties
Q4 11 Q1 12*
remain cautious about the overall economic recovery and will do whatever it takes to land
quality tenants for their properties.
VACANCY
DEVELOPMENT
NET ABSORPTION As noted throughout most of the year, construction of retail projects continues to flourish.
The area’s largest retail project under construction is the mixed-use development at The
CONSTRUCTION
Banks. This project was active for most of the year and will transform into a retail hotspot
RENTAL RATE
when the first phase of the development is completed. Retailers and restaurants such as
Ruth’s Chris, Tin Roof, Johnny Rockets, Holy Grail, Crave, The Wine Guy, Mahogany’s and
*Projected Change to Toby Keith’s I Love This Bar all signed leases for the development, resulting in an occupancy
the following Quarter. rate of 70 percent for the first phase of the project.
In Norwood, the developer of the long-anticipated Rookwood Exchange broke ground on
the site which sat vacant for three years. Jeffrey R. Anderson Real Estate will kick off the
first phase of the $125 million development, which will consist of a 123-room Courtyard by
Marriott Hotel and a 16-screen movie theater that includes a 7,000-square-foot restaurant
and bar with VIP balcony seating.
Earlier this year, Oakley Station landed the first anchor tenant at the $120 million mixed-
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
use development planned for the site of the former Milacron factory in this central
submarket. Cinemark NexGen, a Plano, Texas company, said it will open its first local
15%
theater at this site developed by Vandercar Holdings. In addition to the 55,000-square-foot
theater, the developer is planning 350,000 square feet of retail space, 250,000 square feet
14%
of office space, and 300 apartments.
13%
12%
In 2012, there will be a handful of smaller projects as developers like Brandicorp move
forward with plans for several neighborhood developments around the city. Brandicorp’s
11%
development plans include a $2.5 million retail strip center next to the Fort Wright
10% Wal-Mart and the development of a site in Anderson Township, which could possibly include
3Q 11
4Q 09
1Q 10
2Q 10
3Q 10
4Q 10
1Q 11
2Q 11
4Q 11
a First Financial Bank and a Buffalo Wild Wings, at the corner of Beechmont Avenue and
Asbury Road.
www.colliers.com/cincinnati
2. THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI
RETAIL INVESTMENT SALES and 313% of the $85 million in sales from 2009.
Even after stripping out the Blackstone sale, we
Sales of retail properties in 2011 could be
saw year-over-year sales increases of 59% and
interpreted as “steady progress” when you
91% when comparing 2011 to 2010 and 2009.
compare activity to 2009 and 2010. At yearend,
Amazing progress given the challenges faced over
Colliers tracked fifty-five retail shopping center
that time.
sales in southern Ohio since January 1, 2011. These
sales totaled more than $351 million in property
FORECAST
dispositions and have a very interesting makeup of
The Greater Cincinnati retail market had a good
sale types. We compared current activity levels to
year in terms of activity and lease signings, and
those from 2010 and 2009, and noticed several
this momentum is expected to continue throughout
trends emerging. The underlying trend being that
2012. The overall health of the economy still
transactions are occurring, which means capital is
remains a question mark, but there are positive
flowing back to retail again which is great news for
signs we are headed in the right direction. Although
the overall market.
unemployment remains high, consumers are
spending their discretionary income and fueling the
June marked the largest retail investment of 2011
growth of retailers across the country. Vacancy
when Blackstone completed their $9.4 billion mega
rates will continue to fall slightly, possibly 25 to
acquisition of Centro Properties. This portfolio
50 basis points in 2012. Construction will move
encompassed 2.77 million square feet of space
forward and additional smaller projects are
within 11 shopping centers located between
expected to be announced by the end of the year.
Cincinnati and Dayton, and the allocations of those
assets exceeded $189 million. Combining this with
the $162 million in traditional sales, we saw an
increase of more than 245% of sales from 2010
UPDATE Recent Transactions
FOURTH QUARTER ACTIVITY
PROPERTY TRADE AREA TENANT SIZE
Planfield & Ronald Reagan Hwy Blue Ash Target Opening 135,000
Florence Square on Mall Rd North Central Kroger 123,678
Kentucky 18/Burlington Pike Boone Morris Furniture Co. 100,000
Former Hobby Lobby West Ollie’s 55,169
Rookwood Commons CBD/Midtown Recreational Equipment Inc, REI 21,000
West Chester Uptown Northwest Fresh Market Store 20,500
Cox & Tylersville Rd Northwest Marlin & Ray’s Seafood Bar & Grill 20,500
Brentwood Plaza Northwest Planet Fitness 19,000
Bridgewater Falls North Central Staples 17,000
537 East Pete Rose Way CBD/Midtown Whisky Bar 12,000
8991 Kingsridge Dr North Central Marions Pizza 11,000
1711 State Route 28 East Red Rooster ‘Blast to the Past’ Diner 10,125
The Banks CBD/Midtown Ruth’s Chris 9,600
Bridgewater Falls North Central Charming Charlie 7,800
505 Vine Street CBD/Midtown Tiffany & Co. 7,500
435 Elm Street CBD/Midtown Jimmy G’s 7,500
6380 Glenway Ave Forest Park/West Willie’s Sports Café 7,400
11749 Princeton Pike North Central Play It Again Sports 7,400
Kenwood Place Northeast Massage Envy 7,229
Seventh & Race CBD/Midtown Blue Wisp Jazz Club 7,100
7th Street CBD/Midtown PLAY 6,700
The Banks CBD/Midtown Wine Guy Bistro 6,400
9343 Colerain Ave Northwest Show Me’s 6,000
9521 Fields Ertel Road Northeast Lighting One 5,100
Transactions are believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
3. THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI
SUBMARKET DATA
Total Vacant Quarterly YTD
SUBMARKET Total Inventory Vacancy Rate Avg. Rate
SF Absorption Absorption
Boone County 4,443,274 570,326 12.8% (6,000) 59,718 $11.54
Campbell County 2,598,774 281,751 10.8% 0 148,511 $11.59
CBD/Midtown 4,024,267 318,844 7.9% 205,000 390,585 $11.75
East 6,454,147 861,312 13.3% (54,744) 58,833 $10.76
Kenton County 2,697,225 225,955 8.4% 0 (15,006) $13.12
North Central 10,803,166 1,461,567 13.5% 7,156 102,312 $11.76
Northeast 8,830,430 1,028,478 11.6% (13,728) (217,524) $13.61
Northwest 6,774,187 1,162,503 17.2% (61,128) (8,897) $8.85
West 4,697,596 641,900 13.7% 1,984 111,704 $12.24
Market Totals 51,323,066 6,552,636 12.8% 78,540 630,236 $11.55
AVG. ASKING RATES (PER SF-FULL SERVICE GROSS) QUARTERLY NET ABSORPTION
Strip Centre Neighborhood All Property Types
$15 1,500 The Retail Market
Net Absorption saw 78,540 square
$14
feet of positive
Square Feet
1,000
$13 absorption
this quarter.
$12
500
$11
$10 0
$9
-500
3Q 10
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4Q 09
1Q 10
2Q 10
4Q 10
1Q 11
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3Q 10
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3Q 11
4Q 11
4Q 09
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COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
4. THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI
RETAIL SUBMARKETS
512 offices in
61 countries on
6 continents
United States: 125
Canada: 38
NORTH NORTHEAST Latin America: 18
CENTRAL Asia Pacific: 214
EMEA: 117
• $1.5 billion in annual revenue
NORTHWEST • 979 billion square feet under
management
• Over 12,000 professionals
EAST
CBD
WEST MIDTOWN
CEO | PRINCIPAL:
Shenan P. Murphy, CCIM
+1 513 721 4200
Colliers International | Greater Cincinnati
425 Walnut Street, Suite 1200
Cincinnati, OH 45202
BOONE KENTON CAMPBELL Colliers International statistics are audited annually
and may result in revisions to previously reported
quarterly and final year-end figures
Accelerating success.
Retail Services | Greater Cincinnati
Michael P. Ziegler, CLS Ken Arbino Morton A. Schwartz Justin T. Rex
Brokerage Senior Vice President Brokerage Vice President Brokerage Vice President Brokerage Associate
mike.ziegler@colliers.com ken.arbino@colliers.com morton.schwartz@colliers.com justin.rex@colliers.com
DIR +1 513 562 2224 DIR +1 513 562 2238 DIR +1 513 562 2277 DIR +1 513 562 2218
www.colliers.com/cincinnati