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Q4 2012 Cincinnati Market Trends Industrial
1. THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT
CINCINNATI, OH
www.colliers.com/cincinnati
MARKET INDICATORS
*Projected Change to Following Quarter
Q4 12 Q1 13*
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE
Q4 2012 | INDUSTRIAL
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
ANOTHER 4th QUARTER FINISHES STRONG
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Greater Cincinnati Industrial Market finished the year strong, posting 856,364 square feet of
positive absorption for the 4th quarter. Coming into the last three months of the year, the market
stood at 231,887 square feet of year-to-date negative absorption. The turnaround was a welcome
surprise to owners and investors of commercial real estate, and pushed year-end net absorption to
624,477 square feet. This finish mimicked what was observed in late 2011, as industrial companies
made an effort to complete transactions by year-end. The so-called “Fiscal Cliff” probably helped
motivate several of these companies to close transactions by the end of 2012, in an effort to avoid any
possible tax consequences in 2013. The overall vacancy rate for industrial properties fell to 9.2%,
down from 9.5% in the 3rd quarter. Average rental rates came in at $3.37 per square foot overall,
$3.22 per square foot for distribution properties and $7.50 per square foot for Flex properties.
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
The Northern Kentucky submarkets stole the show for the year, posting 1,048,092 square feet of
positive absorption for all four quarters combined. In the 4th quarter, net absorption totaled 230,859
square feet. The Airport Submarket was the leader in Northern Kentucky, where the majority of this
absorption occurred. Rental rates in the Airport and the Florence submarkets both averaged $3.42
and $3.50 per square foot respectively, while the Covington market was slightly higher at $3.93 per
square foot.
SUBURBAN OHIO SUBMARKETS
On the northern side of the river, the Ohio submarkets made up some ground for the past three
quarters, posting 625,505 square feet of positive absorption in the final quarter of the year. Year-to-
date, the Ohio submarkets produced 423,615 square feet of negative absorption, far short of Northern
Kentucky’s year-end totals, but much better than originally forecasted. For the year, most of the
negative absorption was tied to the Tri-County and I-75 submarkets, which produced over two-thirds
of this amount. Avon Products in Tri-County was the main culprit, as it vacated 750,000 square feet
of space at 175 Progress Drive. Rental rates in the Ohio submarkets ranged from $2.95 per square
foot in Hamilton, to $5.34 per square foot in the Western Corridor, with an overall Suburban Ohio
rental rate of $3.34 per square foot.
CONSTRUCTION
On the construction side, the industrial market has been very quiet, with the exception of some
smaller build-to-suit projects. Supply of industrial product is very low, as institutional developers
have yet to find an appetite for a new speculative development in our area. This is expected to change
in the near term, as the demand for bulk product picks up in 2013. If Greater Cincinnati is going to
compete as one of the major industrial markets in the Midwest, product will need to be developed in
order to handle the expected growth we are predicting in the coming year.
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
2. Transactions are believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.
UPDATE YTD Transactions
SALES
PROPERTY SUBMARKET TENANT/BUYER SIZE TYPE
5568 West Chester Road Tri-County/Union Centre Corner Deal Title Holder LP 970,000 Sale
Corridor 75 Industrial Park I-75 North Corridor IDI 652,000 Sale
3997 Bach Buxton Road East DFL Group 435,600 Sale
8752 Jacquemin Drive Tri-County/Union Centre General Motors 394,480 Sale
11520 Mosteller Road Tri-County/Union Centre Trident Capital 358,386 Sale
2725 Henkle Drive I-71 North Corridor PFB America Real Estate 346,737 Sale
Former Jim Beam Packaging Plant Central/Midtown Edward Paul 278,000 Sale
760 Fujitec Drive I-71 North Corridor Green Bay Packaging 268,614 Sale
1701 Made Industrial Drive Monroe/Middletown Metal Matic Inc. 234,500 Sale
7100 Dixie Highway Tri-County/Union Centre R&R Honeymoon 226,000 Sale
201 Milford Parkway East Lee Holdings 207,040 Sale
110 Industrial Lane West Maas Enterprises Ltd. 161,400 Sale
7585 Empire Drive NKY Trident Capital 148,365 Sale
7910-7920 Kentucky Dr. NKY Corken Steel 131,329 Sale
5 Floridian Drive NKY FloCres Properties 114,900 Sale
7435 Industrial Road NKY BBMJG Properties 107,806 Sale
Century Business & Service Center Tri-County/Union Centre RGW Development 82,775 Sale
6900 Steger Drive Central/Midtown Jet Machine & Manufacturing 80,000 Sale
620 Shepherd Lane Lockland/Evendale Chromaflo Lockland Holdings LLC 71,541 Sale
LEASES
PROPERTY SUBMARKET TENANT/BUYER SIZE TYPE
10650 Toebben Drive NKY Cengage 835,000 Lease
Skyport #3 NKY Sun Chemical 354,371 Lease
World Park Bldg #6 Tri-County/Union Centre Valvoline 321,464 Lease
Airpark International DC #1 NKY Schwarz Paper 316,000 Lease
1100 Burlington Pike NKY Verst Group Logistics 290,521 Lease
100 Precision Drive NKY GSI 234,000 Lease
Parkwest International N2 NKY iHerb 211,200 Lease
3720 Langley Drive NKY Levi Strauss & Co. 151,444 Lease
2100-2150 Global Way NKY Wayfare LLC 150,095 Lease
375 Northpointe Dr. Hamilton/Fairfield Prestige Display & Packing 123,524 Lease
Skyport #3 NKY Heidelberg Distributing 118,629 Lease
2265 Progress Drive NKY LeanCor Supply Chain 106,920 Lease
5151 Fischer Place Central/Midtown Cadbury Schweppes Bottling Group 93,000 Lease
1499 Jamike Ave. NKY Close the Loop 81,200 Lease
2101-2301 E Kemper Road Blue Ash Interworkings 75,591 Lease
NorthPark Business Center I Tri-County/Union Centre LEM Products 75,000 Lease
3720 Langley Drive NKY GES/Viad 72,000 Lease
5141 Fischer Place Central/Midtown Modern Builders Supply 69,300 Lease
7850 Foundation Drive NKY Mazak 63,656 Lease
7130 New Buffington Road NKY KT Warehouse Solutions 63,520 Lease
Constitution Drive I-75 North Corridor Guest Supply 62,464 Lease
World Park Building 9 Tri-County/Union Centre Rite Rug 60,000 Lease
THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2012 | INDUSTRIAL | CINCINNATI
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
3. SUBMARKET Total Inventory Total Vacant SF Vacancy Rate
Quarterly
Absorption
YTD
Absorption
Avg. Rate
Airport 27,423,161 1,807,030 6.6% 605,742 1,147,788 $3.42
Blue Ash 12,787,682 892,684 7.0% 59,650 262,528 $3.88
Kenton/Campbell County 5,845,329 186,942 3.2% (67,726) (86,042) $3.95
Central/Midtown 47,423,206 3,679,413 7.8% 384,042 366,185 $3.40
Covington 8,338,550 521,262 6.3% (111,019) (87,012) $3.93
Eastern Corridor 12,650,115 2,962,212 23.4% (23,193) (183,135) $3.67
Florence 24,447,909 880,205 3.6% (196,138) 73,358 $3.50
Hamilton 7,972,378 743,200 9.3% (25,904) (201,831) $2.95
I-71 North Corridor 10,980,157 1,406,674 12.8% 243,465 204,818 $3.29
Lockland/Evendale 20,650,536 701,189 3.4% 370,902 200,344 $2.97
I-75 North Corridor 21,991,003 2,519,167 11.5% (326,154) (570,238) $3.60
Tri-County/Union Centre 66,964,416 8,733,804 13.0% (99,923) (543,906) $3.06
Western Corridor 7,126,143 277,896 3.9% 42,620 41,620 $5.34
MARKET TOTALS 274,600,585 25,311,678 9.2% 856,364 624,477 $3.37
INDUSTRIAL SUBMARKET DATA
AVG. ASKING RATES (PER SF-FULL SERVICE GROSS)
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
Flex General Distribution
QUARTERLY NET ABSORPTION
SquareFeet
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
FORECAST
Continuing the wave of activity in the 4th quarter, 2013 should be a year in which the industrial market continues to make significant gains. As
the direction of the national economy continues to take shape, we expect the industrial market to take off in the coming year. Manufacturing is
increasing, employment is starting to improve and the supply of industrial product is diminishing. These three factors should make for a year of
strong positive absorption in 2013.
THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2012 | INDUSTRIAL | CINCINNATI
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
4. CEO | PRINCIPAL:
Shenan P. Murphy, CCIM
+1 513 721 4200
Colliers International statistics are audited annually
and may result in revisions to previously reported
quarterly and final year-end figures
Colliers International | Greater Cincinnati
425 Walnut Street, Suite 1200
Cincinnati, OH 45202
Industrial Services | Greater Cincinnati
INT’L
AIRPORT
I-75 NORTH
TRI-COUNTY/
UNION CENTRE
I-71 NORTH
BLUE
ASHLOCKLAND/
EVENDALE
CENTRAL/
MIDTOWN
EASTERN
CORRIDOR
WESTERN
CORRIDOR
KENTON
CAMPBELL
COUNTY
COVINGTON
AIRPORT
FLORENCE
HAMILTON
www.colliers.com/cincinnati
Chuck A. Ackerman, CCIM, SIOR
Brokerage Senior Vice President
chuck.ackerman@colliers.com
DIR +1 513 562 2266
John B. Gartner, III, SIOR
Brokerage Senior Vice President
Principal | Cincinnati
john.gartner@colliers.com
DIR +1 513 562 2207
William K. Keefer, SIOR
Brokerage Senior Vice President
Principal | Cincinnati
bill.keefer@colliers.com
DIR +1 513 562 2235
Erin M. Casey, GA-C, MICP™
Brokerage Vice President
erin.casey@colliers.com
DIR +1 513 562 2225
Michael E. Daly, SIOR
Brokerage Senior Vice President
Principal | Cincinnati
mike.daly@colliers.com
DIR +1 513 562 2206
522 offices in
62 countries on
6 continents
United States: 147
Canada: 37
Latin America: 19
Asia: 36
ANZ: 165
EMEA: 118
• $1.8 billion in annual revenue
• 1.25 billion square feet under
management
• Over 12,300 professionals
THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2012 | INDUSTRIAL | CINCINNATI