1. Case Study :
How Can Ireland Become The Prime Mover In
Wave Energy?
Green Energy Exp
May, 2010
Harvey Appelbe
© Vattenfall AB

2. Case study: Tonn Energy
• Background: who are we?
• Day 1: what we expected?
• Year 1: what happened
• Year 2: what is happening
• Year ?: what could happen
© Vattenfall AB
2

3. Background: Who are Vattenfall?
Europe’s main electricity companies
European electricity generation TWh Net sales, EUR billions
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
170 TWh €18B
10
0
© Vattenfall AB
AB 29

4. Background: Who are Vattenfall?
Five strategic ambitions
Number One for Number One for
the Environment the Customer
Employer Profitable
of Choice Growth
Benchmark for the Industry
© Vattenfall AB
AB 11

5. Background: Who are Vattenfall?
Number One for the Environment
A substantial contribution to sustainable
development is essential for trust and for
licence to operate and grow.
• New low-emitting energy generation
• Increased efficiency of existing production
• R&D to reduce CO2 emissions and
increase renewable energy
• Promotion of global and market-oriented
climate solutions
© Vattenfall AB
AB 13

6. Background: Who are Vattenfall?
Profitable Growth
Size carries strategic advantages.
Profitable growth is vital for
competitiveness and sustained
economic value.
• Organic expansion – construction of
new plants, upgrading and renewal
of existing plants
• Acquisitions in priority markets – the
UK, the Benelux countries, France
and Central Europe
• Business development – focus on
efficient use of energy and biomass
fuels
© Vattenfall AB
AB 14

7. Background: Who are Vattenfall?
Making electricity clean
Strategic direction over the coming decades
• Reducing environmental impact from all
operations
• Emphasising the important role of electricity in
the future sustainable society
Commitment to customers and society
• Operations climate-neutral by 2050 (by 2030 for
the Nordic operations)
• 50 per cent reduction in emissions from own
operations by 2030 compared with 1990
Climate goals integrated in business strategy
• Long-term profitable growth needed to realise
vision
© Vattenfall AB
AB 18

8. Background: Why Ocean Energy?
Expanding generation, expanding renewables
2008 2030
170 TWh
15%
Coal
23,1 CCS
40%
44,1 Coal
Renewables
20%
Gas
30,4 Nuclear
2,4 5%
20%
Coal Gas Nuclear Coal CCS Renewables
© Vattenfall AB
8

9. Background: Why Ocean Energy?
Vattenfall’s CO2 emissions roadmap
Vattenfall’s target
Reduce emissions by 50% - Technology?
from 1990 to 2030 - Politics?
- Economy?
© Vattenfall AB
9

10. Background: Why Ocean Energy?
2030 – 2050: 100% emission neutral
Vattenfall wants to grow and intends to be
climate neutral in 2050: “making electricity clean”
Options include ...
• Nuclear power; where it is accepted
• Efficient and smart energy consumption
• Smart grids that can handle renewable generation
...and lots of new renewable energy ...
• Offshore Wind Power
• CCS-technology
• Ocean Energy
© Vattenfall AB
10

11. Background: Why Ocean Energy?
Global Ocean Energy (Winter)
© Vattenfall AB
11

12. Background: Why Ocean Energy?
Ocean Energy projects
Previous or existing device
Planned future scheme
© Vattenfall AB
12

13. Background: The Ocean Energy Program
Vattenfall’s Ocean Energy Program
(T) Technology & Grid
(L) Localisation & Environm. Dr. Helmar Rendez
(P) Pilote projects
Owner
(S) Site development
Annika Andersson (L)
Gunilla Andrée (L) Dr. Lars Strömberg
Steering
Magnus Andersson (T/P/S) Göran Lundgren
Fredrik Carlsson (T) committé
Katarina Eriksson (L)
Erik Fröberg (P/T)
Anders Johnsson (P)
Jonas Gidlund (T/P/S)
Administration & Program
Pehr Hjalmarsson (P) Ulf Tisell
Communication Management
Tor Isdal (S)
Thommy Karlsson (P) Lars Uggla
Niclas Christoffersson (T/P/S) Birgitta Berglöw
Dean McGowan (L)
Thomas Olsson (L)
Technology & Localisation & Pilot Site
Jonas Persson (T)
Daniel Salomonsson (T) grid environment projects development
Erik Segergren (T/S)
Marco Sipi (P) Per Holmberg Kristin Andersen José Silva Urban Henfridsson
Erik Sparrevik (L/P) Oskar Danielsson
Lovisa Stenberg (T) Vattenfall competence pool
Kerstin Strandanger (T/P/S)
Kristian Toresson (T/S)
Kjell Wester (L)
© Vattenfall AB
13

14. Background: The Ocean Energy Program
Cheese
© Vattenfall AB
14

15. To help protect y our priv acy , PowerPoint prev ented this external picture from being automatically downloaded. To download and display this picture, click Options in the Message Bar, and then click Enable external content.
Background: The Ocean Energy Program
Learning curve
Pilot Phase Demo Phase Commercial Phase
Grid Connected Profitable
2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
€ct/kWh
30
25 Scotland
Ireland
20
Vattenfall
Estimation
15
Vattenfall
10 Estimation
Sweden
5
* Carbon Trust 2006,
10-15 % learning rate
0
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 MW
© Vattenfall AB
15

16. Background: The Ocean Energy Program
Learning curve
Pilot Phase Demo Phase Commercial Phase
Grid Connected Profitable
2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
€ct/kWh
30
25 Scotland
Ireland
20
Vattenfall
Estimation
15
Vattenfall
10 Estimation
Sweden
5
* Carbon Trust 2006,
0
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750
2000 MW
10-15 % learning rate
2000 2250 MW
© Vattenfall AB
16

17. Background: The Ocean Energy Program
The work
Environmental impact
certainty
Operation in real
marine climate.
Hard to predict the
economics (incl O&M)
Transmission grid
capacity and upgrade.
Subsea super grid to
be developed.
Public and local
appetite
© Vattenfall AB
17

18. Background: The Ocean Energy Program
Early days. Back several horses.
Wavebob Seabased
Pelamis
© Vattenfall AB
18

19. Background: The Ocean Energy Program
The race
• Do pilot tests • Demonstrations Commercial
• Establish sites • Site Development wave and tidal
• Increase know-how farms
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Wavebob
Vattenfall - Proof of concept Technology / technologies proved
10-20 MW per plant to gain best economical result
Pelamis
100-200 MW 100-200 MW
Pilot tests Demonstrations
Seabased
Making use of national On markets with the best
market support schemes commercial conditions
© Vattenfall AB
19

20. Background: Tonn Energy
Tonn Energy is Ireland in this race.
• Do pilot tests • Demonstrations Commercial
• Establish sites • Site Development wave and tidal
• Increase know-how farms
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Wavebob
Investigate Technology / technologies proved
Proof of concept array to gain best economical result
Prepare
Learn more
Learn
Pelamis
100-200 MW 100-200 MW
Pilot tests Demonstrations
Seabased
Making use of national On markets with the best
market support schemes commercial conditions
© Vattenfall AB
20

21. Day 1: What we expected
Criteria
• Scalable Technology
• Wave climate
• ”Full load hours”
• Technical availability
• Incentives
• Open for business
• O&M strategy
© Vattenfall AB
21

22. Day 1: What we expected
Criteria
• Scalable Technology
• Wave climate
• ”Full load hours”
• Technical availability
• Incentives
• Open for business
• O&M strategy
© Vattenfall AB
22

23. Day 1: What we expected
Criteria
• Scalable Technology
• Wave climate
• ”Full load hours”
• Technical availability
• Incentives
• Open for business Mullaghnmore Head, Ireland: 1 December 2007
14m waves recorded at wave bouys.
• O&M strategy
© Vattenfall AB
23

24. © Vattenfall AB

25. Day 1: What we expected
Criteria
• Scalable Technology Wavebob
• Wave climate 50 KW/m wave
• ”Full load hours” 3000 – 5000 hours
• Technical availability 60 – 80%
• Incentives 220 €/MWh
• Open for business
• O&M strategy
© Vattenfall AB
25

26. Day 1: What we expected
Criteria
• Scalable Technology Wavebob
• Wave climate 50 KW/m wave
• ”Full load hours” 3000 – 5000 hours
• Technical availability 60 – 80%
• Incentives 220 €/MWh
• Open for business OE Strategy
• O&M strategy
© Vattenfall AB
26

27. Day 1: What we expected
Criteria
• Scalable Technology Wavebob
• Wave climate 50 KW/m wave
• ”Full load hours” 3000 – 5000 hours
• Technical availability 60 – 80%
• Incentives 220 €/MWh
• Open for business OE Strategy
• O&M strategy ?!
© Vattenfall AB
27

28. Day 1: What we expected
Setup Energy - Groups as on wave
OceanBusiness Main focus of 2009 power
Three
Norway 500 TWh
Wave Power Potential
Vattenfall Nordic Huge potential in our part
UK 840 TWh (Sweden, Finland, Denmark) of the world
Sweden 30 TWh
Ireland 525 TWh
Several technologies
Denmark 30 TWh
brought to our attention
Germany 5 TWh
Vattenfall
Portugal 80 TWh Pan-Europe
(Wind, Nuclear, Engineering) A little bit more lasting
and predictable than
wind
Vattenfall´s
Core Market Vattenfall Central Europe
(Germanyambition is 30
Our and Poland) TWh/a
for 2030
© Vattenfall AB
AB 21
28

29. Year 1: What happened
Roadmap
Commercial
Viability €
Operational
Feasibility
Growth / Maturity
Technical
Reliability
€
Technical Commercialisation
Feasibility €
Graduation
Incubation
Galway Belmullet Site 1 West Coast
1MW 5MW 250MW ?000MW
i i
© Vattenfall AB
29

30. Year 1: What happened
Graduate Project
© Vattenfall AB
30

31. Year 1: What happened
Graduate Project
Environmental Impacts
Commercial Fisheries
Recreation users
Shipping navigation
Infrastructures (ports, roads)
Public concern and opinion
Seascape
Archaeology and heritage
Survivability
Operation & maintenance
© Vattenfall AB
31

32. Year 1: What happened
Graduate Project Permit Plan
H1 H2 H3 H4
Project Management
License application
successful Foreshore Lease
Foreshore License
On-shore planning
Foreshore Lease
Design specifications
Environmental Impact
Assessment
Marine Archeology
Community Engagement
Public Information Campaign
PR Compaign
Technical specifications
ESB Network Application
CER License to construct
CER License to generate
Power purchase agreement Deployment
specifications
Health & Safety
Supply chain & Logistics
Insurance
© Vattenfall AB
32

33. Year 1: What happened
Consenting agencies
ESBn Electrical Licence to
Connection
CER Construct
Eirgrid
OEU SEI DCENR
Foreshore DAFF
Marine Lease
AnBord
Planning DHELG
CoCo
Environmental
UAU Dúchas
Impact
Community
Community Udarás DoCRGA
Acceptance
© Vattenfall AB
33

34. Year 1: What happened
Consenting agencies
ESBn Electrical Licence to
Connection
CER Construct
Eirgrid
OEDU SEI DCENR
Foreshore DAFF
Marine Lease
Go
AnBord
Wait Planning DHELG
Stop CoCo
Environmental
UAU Dúchas
Impact
Community
Community Udarás DoCRGA
Acceptance
© Vattenfall AB
34

35. Year 1: What happened
Consenting agencies
ESBn Electrical Licence to
Connection
CER Construct
Eirgrid
OEDU SEI DCENR
Foreshore DAFF
Marine Lease
Go
AnBord
Wait Planning DHELG
Stop CoCo
Environmental
UAU Dúchas
Impact
Community
Community Udarás DoCRGA
Acceptance
© Vattenfall AB
35

36. Year 1: What happened
Consenting agencies
ESBn Electrical Licence to
Connection
CER Construct
Eirgrid
OEDU SEI DCENR
Foreshore DAFF
Marine Lease
Go
AnBord
Wait Planning DHELG
Stop CoCo
Environmental
UAU Dúchas
Impact
Community
Community Udarás DoCRGA
Acceptance
© Vattenfall AB
36

37. Year 1: What happened
Consenting agencies
ESBn Electrical Licence to
Connection
CER Construct
Eirgrid
OEDU SEI DCENR
Foreshore DAFF
Marine Lease
Go
AnBord
Wait Planning DHELG
Stop CoCo
Environmental
UAU Dúchas
Impact
Community
Community Udarás DoCRGA
Acceptance
© Vattenfall AB
37

38. Year 1: What happened
Consenting agencies
ESBn Electrical Licence to
Connection
CER Construct
Eirgrid
OEDU SEI DCENR
Foreshore DAFF
Marine Lease
Go
AnBord
Wait Planning DHELG
Stop CoCo
Environmental
UAU Dúchas
Impact
Community
Community Udarás DoCRGA
Acceptance
© Vattenfall AB
38

39. Year 1: What happened
Consenting agencies
ESBn Electrical Licence to
Connection
CER Construct
Eirgrid
OEDU SEI DCENR
Foreshore DAFF
Marine Lease
Go
AnBord
Wait Planning DHELG
Stop CoCo
Environmental
UAU Dúchas
Impact
Community
Community Udarás DoCRGA
Acceptance
© Vattenfall AB
39

40. Year 1: What happened
Graduate Project Permit Plan
H1 H2 H3 H4
Project Management
License application
successful Foreshore Lease
Foreshore License
On-shore planning
Foreshore Lease
Design specifications
Environmental Impact
Assessment
Marine Archeology
Community Engagement
Public Information Campaign
PR Compaign
Technical specifications
ESB Network Application
CER License to construct
CER License to generate
Power purchase agreement Deployment
specifications
Health & Safety
Supply chain & Logistics
Insurance
© Vattenfall AB
40

41. Year 2: What is happening
Solution
Wave Wave
Climate Climate
Vendor Device
Devices Array
Subsea Subsea
Cables Cable
Substation Substation
ESBn ESBn
Connection Connection
CER CER
Permission Permission
Land Land
Lease Lease
On land On land
Planning Planning
EIS EIS
Foreshore Foreshore
Lease Lease
SEAI Tonn Energy
© Vattenfall AB
41

42. Year 2: What is happening
Collaboration
Wave Wave Wave
Climate Climate Climate
Vendor Device Partner Device
Devices Array Devices Array
Subsea Subsea Dedicated Subsea
Cables Cable Cables Cable
ESBn ESBn
Substation Substation
Connection Connection
ESBn ESBn CER CER
Connection Connection Permission Permission
CER CER
Substation
Permission Permission
Land Land Land
Lease Lease Lease
On land On land On land
Planning Planning Planning
EIS EIS EIS
Foreshore Foreshore Foreshore
Lease Lease Lease
SEAI Tonn Energy Collaboration
© Vattenfall AB
42

43. Year 2: What is happening
Collaboration
© Vattenfall AB
43

44. 5MW: Belmullet
© Vattenfall AB
44

45. Year ?: What could happen
Roadmap
Commercial
Viability €
Operational
Feasibility
Growth / Maturity
Technical
Reliability
€
Technical Commercialisation
Feasibility €
Graduation
Incubation
Galway Belmullet Site 1 West Coast
1MW 5MW 250MW ?000MW
i i
© Vattenfall AB
45

46. Year ?: What could happen
2040
Scan
Scot
IRL
Iberia
© Vattenfall AB
46

47. Year ?: What could happen
2040
Scan
Scot
10GW IRL
Iberia
$3B pa
© Vattenfall AB
47

48. Year ?: What could happen
2040
© Vattenfall AB
48

49. Year ?: What could happen
2030
Scan
Scot
5GW IRL
Iberia
$1.5B pa
© Vattenfall AB
49

50. Hallå
Hall
Year ?: What could happen
2030
© Vattenfall AB
50

51. Year ?: What could happen
2020
Scan
Scot
0.5GW IRL
Iberia
© Vattenfall AB
51

52. Year ?: What could happen
2020
Scan
Scot
0.5GW IRL
Iberia
© Vattenfall AB
52

53. Year ?: What could happen
Timeline
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Test Site Learnings
Public Attitude Awareness Consultation
Environmental
Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP
Permitting Reorganisation
Allocation
Consenting
© Vattenfall AB
53

54. Year ?: What could happen
Timeline
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Test Site Learnings
Public Attitude Awareness Consultation
Environmental
Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP
Permitting Reorganisation
Allocation
Consenting
Grid Access Analysis
Design
Construction
© Vattenfall AB
54

55. Year ?: What could happen
Timeline
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Test Site Learnings
Public Attitude awareness Consultation
Environmental
Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP
Permitting Reorganisation
Allocation
Consenting
Grid Access Analysis
Design
Construction
© Vattenfall AB
55

56. Year ?: What could happen
Timeline
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Test Site Learnings
Public Attitude awareness Consultation
Environmental
Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP
Permitting Reorganisation
Allocation
Consenting
Grid Access Analysis
Design
Construction
Industrial Development Evaluation
Design
Consenting
Construction
© Vattenfall AB
56

57. Year ?: What could happen
Timeline
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Test Site Learnings
Public Attitude awareness Consultation
Environmental
Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP
Permitting Reorganisation
Allocation
Consenting
Grid Access Analysis
Design
Construction
Industrial Development Evaluation
Design
Consenting
Construction
© Vattenfall AB
57

58. Year ?: What could happen
Timeline
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Test Site Learnings
Public Attitude awareness Consultation
Environmental
Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP
Permitting Reorganisation
Allocation
Consenting
Grid Access Analysis
Design
Construction
Industrial Development Evaluation
Design
Consenting
Construction
Infrastructure Policy/mobilise
Planning
Construction & development
© Vattenfall AB
58

59. If climate change is still a problem...
Utilities like Vattenfall will develop wave farms of utility
scale.
Vattenfall, on its own, have ambitions for some 30TWh for
2030+
This means a CAPEX of some €15B - €20B, and
an annually O&M cost of some €0,5B:
• Boats / seamen
• Workshop / mechanics
• Workshop / electricians
Initially half in Ireland, half in Scotland?
HELP!
© Vattenfall AB
59

60. Summary
Case study: Tonn Energy
• Background: who are we? An example multi-national looking to invest
• Day 1: what we expected? Great resource, & open for business
• Year 1: what happened Opening for business
• Year 2: what is happening Open for collaborative work
• Year ?: what could happen Jigsaw pieces fall into place
Be the most open for business
Be the earliest
Be the best.
Take the opportunity.
© Vattenfall AB
60

61. Summary
Take the opportunity....
• 2010, formulate a spatial plan (SEA/OREDP) for Ocean Energy
• 2011, allocate some sea floor to earnest, qualified developers.
• 2012, design and plan the grid capacity required to these sites
• 2013, commence construction of the grid capacity
• 2014, commence construction of the infrastructure (ports, workforce...)
• 2014-16, go through the consenting process for these projects
• 2017, ramp up to employment, construction and deployment
• 2020, be the first country to have an open, effective process and 500MW
© Vattenfall AB
61