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US Economic Outlook 2008 - 2011 Randy S. Economicrot . blogspot .com
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Money — what is it? Money is a good that acts as a unit of account, a store of value, and a medium of exchange
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Bartering & Commodity Money
Fiat Money ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Federal Reserve Banking System ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Quotes on Federal Reserve Banking
US Dollar – World’s Reserve Currency ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
INFLATION — what is it? Wikipedia defines Inflation as : a rise in the general level of prices over time. It may also refer to a rise in the prices of a specific set of goods or services (e.g. energy, food, housing, etc).  In any case, inflation is measured as a percentage in the  rate of change of a price index . But that inflation definition (like most others you  will find) is like putting the cart before the horse.  Inflation is caused by a net expansion of money supply that “ causes ” rising prices -- by devaluing a currency  Stated differently: the expansion of a nation’s money supply increases available currency beyond the proportion of available goods and services – causing more dollars to chase the same number of goods/services. Thus it creates a supply/demand situation that drives prices higher. In Reality:
Growth of US Money Supply  1959-2005 Came off gold standard here $10 Trillion $700 Billion
Growth of US “Fiat” Money 2004 + Fed is printing money at 20% annual rate; money supply to double in 4 years Yes, $14 Trillion Dollars! Yes, a 20% rate of growth !
INFLATION-1900-2000 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Actual Inflation Rate Today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],By understating inflation, the US Gvt. pays its obligations (Social Security, Welfare, Pension Benefits, Military Pay/retirements, Medicare obligations, and even foreign held debt) with significantly devalued dollars over time
By “understating” Inflation  US GDP is “overstated” Gvt’s “massaged” figures  say we’re not in recession The Real figures say  we are in Recession ** Negative Growth **
Total Credit Market Debt Came off gold standard here 2008 is ~ 400% - Debt ~ $53 tril - GDP ~ $13 tril
Total US Debt Through 2007 Note that income hasn’t kept up with Debt levels
US Personal Savings Rate
Housing Bubble
Some Housing Bubble Causes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Housing Bubble Causes (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
History of Home Values 1890 benchmark factoring out inflation
US Mortgage Rate Reset Chart We’re here today (Note: 6-9 month lag to future foreclosures) Exploding ARMs to be next  wave; many were “pick-your- payment loans”
Current/Future Outlook (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Current/Future Outlook (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Current/Future Outlook (3) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Current/Future Outlook  Bottom Line:   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What to do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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US Economic Outlook 2008-11+

  • 1. US Economic Outlook 2008 - 2011 Randy S. Economicrot . blogspot .com
  • 2.
  • 3. Money — what is it? Money is a good that acts as a unit of account, a store of value, and a medium of exchange
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. INFLATION — what is it? Wikipedia defines Inflation as : a rise in the general level of prices over time. It may also refer to a rise in the prices of a specific set of goods or services (e.g. energy, food, housing, etc). In any case, inflation is measured as a percentage in the rate of change of a price index . But that inflation definition (like most others you will find) is like putting the cart before the horse. Inflation is caused by a net expansion of money supply that “ causes ” rising prices -- by devaluing a currency Stated differently: the expansion of a nation’s money supply increases available currency beyond the proportion of available goods and services – causing more dollars to chase the same number of goods/services. Thus it creates a supply/demand situation that drives prices higher. In Reality:
  • 10. Growth of US Money Supply 1959-2005 Came off gold standard here $10 Trillion $700 Billion
  • 11. Growth of US “Fiat” Money 2004 + Fed is printing money at 20% annual rate; money supply to double in 4 years Yes, $14 Trillion Dollars! Yes, a 20% rate of growth !
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. By “understating” Inflation US GDP is “overstated” Gvt’s “massaged” figures say we’re not in recession The Real figures say we are in Recession ** Negative Growth **
  • 15. Total Credit Market Debt Came off gold standard here 2008 is ~ 400% - Debt ~ $53 tril - GDP ~ $13 tril
  • 16. Total US Debt Through 2007 Note that income hasn’t kept up with Debt levels
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. History of Home Values 1890 benchmark factoring out inflation
  • 22. US Mortgage Rate Reset Chart We’re here today (Note: 6-9 month lag to future foreclosures) Exploding ARMs to be next wave; many were “pick-your- payment loans”
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.