Swiss-Belhotel Craig Rispin Keynote "How to Think Like a Futurist" - May 4, 2018

3. Everything You Just
Saw Was Created
By Futurists…

5. Why think like a
Futurist?

6. “The person who does not
worry about the future
will shortly have
worries about
the present.”
Ancient Chinese Proverb

7. “Change is the law of life.
And those who only
look to the past or present
are certain to
miss the future.”
President John F. Kennedy

8. PHOTOGRAPHER: DUNCAN COLE
SOURCE: WWW.SAATCHIKEVIN.COM
“Foresight and
innovation are
the only two things
that can set you
apart from your
competition today.”
Kevin Roberts, CEO of Saatchi & Saatchi

9. But most importantly,
futurists help you
think about your
future…

10. “…for that is where
you and I are going
to spend the
rest of
our lives.”
Criswell from Plan 9 From Outerspace

17. Tech Minority Report Predicted:
Facial Recognition
Personalised Advertising
Gesture-Based User Interface
Voice-Automated Homes
Predictive Crime Fighting
Driverless Cars
Robotic Insects
Jetpacks

18. Robotic Insects
Source: Harvard

21. Jetpack

22. What is a
Futurist?

23. “Futurists
are reverse
historians.”Craig Rispin
“We try to peer over the horizon so we can
make better decisions today. We analyze
trends, anticipate significant changes and
help people create preferable futures.”

24. Being a futurist
is a real job...

25. You can get
a degreein
future studies.
BA, MS or Ph.D.
The formal study of the future has
several names including Futures Studies,
Foresight or Strategic Foresight.
15

27. P
P
Master of Technology in Futures Studies in Commerce

28. P
P
Master of Management (Strategic Foresight)

29. P
Undergraduate and Graduate Degrees in Futures Studies

30. P
Graduate Institute of Futures Studies

31. There are great
professional
associations…

33. Futurists
advise...

34. Companies, governments,
NGO’s, professional
organizations, educational
institutions, planning
bodies, product designers,
entrepreneurs, politicians...

35. “When it comes to the
future, there are three kinds
of people: those who let
it happen, those who
make it happen,
and those who wonder
what happened.”
John M. Richardson, Jr.

36. Great
Futurists
in History

37. There are many great futurists in history, such
as Jules Verne, H.G. Wells, Arthur C. Clarke,
Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Buckminster Fuller,
Gordon Moore, Ray Kurzweil and Steve Jobs.
This is not a complete list but they are a few of
my personal favorites.
Before companies and governments hired futurists,
one of the only ways to make a living as a
futurist was to become a science fiction writer.
41

38. Jules Verne
1828–1905
• The Father of Science Fiction.
• Verne wrote about space, air and underwater travel long before they were
invented.
• He is the third most translated author of all time.
• Many films have been based on his books.
• He trained as a lawyer, like his father.
• In 1848, he began writing plays.
• Verne was introduced to Gaspard-Félix Tournachon (aka Felix Nadar) the first
person to take aerial photography using a hot air balloon in 1858. Nader was
probably the inspiration for Verne’s first book Five Weeks in a Balloon.

39. Verne’s NOTABLE WORKS
FATHEROF
SCIENCEFICTION
43

40. Verne’s lost
novel
Paris in the 21st Century
• Written in 1863, first published in 1996 in English.
• Discovered by Verne’s Great Grandson in a hidden
safe in 1989.
• In this book Verne predicted: gasoline-powered automobiles, high-speed trains,
calculators, the Internet (a worldwide “telegraphic” network).
• Verne also predicted a geometric, modern centerpiece built for
the Louvre in Paris, defacing the classic architecture.
Century44

41. Verne Quotes
“Anything one man can
imagine, other men can
make real.”
“Civilization never
recedes; the law of
necessity ever forces it
onwards.”

42. H.G. Wells
1866–1946
• Herbert George Wells was a prolific writer of both fiction and
non-fiction. He produced works in many genres, including
contemporary novels, history and social commentary.
• Only his early science fiction novels are widely read today.
• In 1913, he wrote Little Wars the first miniaturized recreational war game.
Being a pacifist he wanted to provide an alternative activity to real war as well as
entertainment. Today he is known as “The Father of Miniature War Gaming”.
• In 1932, on a BBC Radio broadcast, Wells called for the establishment of
“Departments and Professors of Foresight”.

43. 47
Wells’ NOTABLE WORKS
H.G.WELLS

44. H.G.Wells:
Games&Simulation
Game Simulation Today –
SecondLife.com
Game Simulation Yesterday –
Wells’ Little War

45. Wells Quotes
“We were making the future
and hardly any of us troubled
to think what future we were
making. And here it is!”
“Adapt or perish, now as
ever, is nature’s inexorable
imperative.”

46. To think like
a Futurist
you need
to think …

47. Global
vs. Local
Futurists consider worldwide
trends while others focus on what
is immediately around them.
P
My House

49. Advice:
Focus on Global Trends
in Your Industry

50. NPA Worldwide

51. Long-Term
vs. Short-Term
Futurists look forward 10, 20,
50 or even 100 years. Most
business people focus on the
next quarter or annual result.

52. What’s Average Time
Most People Dedicate
to Longterm Planning?

53. Trends
vs. News
Futurists draw connections and plot
trend lines from a large cross-section
of news sources. Traditional thinkers
get their news from a few familiar
sources and do not often see
connections or trends.

54. Advice:
Curated Your Media
Consumption - Use
Flipboard to Find & Filter

55. Flipboard.com

56. Cross Industry
vs. Industry Specific
My Industry
Futurists ‘cross-pollinate’ ideas from
multiple industries, while traditional
business people tend to focus their
attention in their industry only.

57. Advice:
Curate Connections in
Other Industries,
Find Solutions From
Outside Your Industry

58. Connected
vs.Isolated
Futurists are connected to global
networks of thinkers and experts.
Many CEOs say they feel they are
very isolated and find it hard to
discuss issues with other people.

60. Advice:
Quickly Check
Google.com/trends
See Search Terms Trends

61. Multiple Futures
vs.One Future
Futurists look to the
possibility of multiple
outcomes or futures,
while most people
concentrate on one goal
or one possible future.

62. Advice:
Rapid Feedback Loops -
Read the Sprint Book

64. Futurists use the STEEP model
to look at all areas of change
(Social, Technological,
Environmental, Economic and
Political). Most others only focus
on changes in the economy.
Political
Social
TechnologicalEnvironmental
Economic
MultipleTrendDrivers
vs. Economic Drivers

65. Futurists employ vision and help
others develop it. Tactics are short-
term goals based on actions typically
less than one year out.Vision
vs.Tactics

66. Big Picture
vs. Micro Detail
Futurists step back to take
in the whole context, while
many people get caught up
in overwhelming details.

67. A sampling of the
most popular…
Futurist Tools
&Techniques

68. Environmental Scanning is the systematic process
of collecting information to help an organization see
the forces affecting them. Basically the process helps
them open their eyes to new trends, driving forces,
opportunities and threats.
In past decades, futurists would employ teams of mostly undergraduate students
to clip articles from newspapers, trade publications and professional periodicals.
By measuring the number of ‘column inches’ allocated to a given topic one could
see if something was trending up or down in interest and/or importance.
Modern technologies have eliminated the need for a large staff. The following
tools can help you set up your own environmental scanning system.
Environmental Scanning1

69. Environmental ScanningWebsites like these can help you keep up your scanning …
www.TrendWatching.com
www.ShapingTomorrow.com

70. Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning is probably the second most popular
tool used by futurists. A scenario is not a specific forecast
of the future, but a description of what might possibly
happen. It helps articulate probable future events that
may affect an organization or its operating environment.
Scenarios are stories carefully constructed based on trends and events. Trends are
often plotted on a quadrant and four scenarios are developed from a range of
probabilities.
The term scenario planning was introduced by Herman Kahn in connection with
military and strategic studies done by RAND in the 1950s. Scenario planning was
made popular in the corporate arena by Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s.
2

72. Scenario Planning
Recommended reading for
Scenario Planning
Wired’s Article on Scenarios —
http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html
The Future of Ideas
Scenario Quadrants
BalanceofPower
Corporations
Consultants-Land Meme-World
Corporat-istan Network-Cities
Idea Ownership
Free
Idea Ownership
Proprietary
BalanceofPower
Individuals

73. “Futurism is an art of re-perception.
It means recognizing that life will change,
must change and has changed, and it
suggests how and why.
It shows that old perceptions
have lost their validity, while
new ones are possible.”
Bruce Sterling, Sci-Fi Author & Futurist

74. I hope I’ve helped you
think like a futurist …
“Don’t just let the
future happen to you—
go and create your ideal
future!”
Craig Rispin