This document discusses four possible future scenarios for Panatag Island (Spratly Islands) using Jim Dator's four archetypes of alternative futures. The scenarios are: 1. An "Oil Race" scenario where countries increase exploration and exploitation of oil and gas resources in the region, risking an arms race. 2. A "Dangerous Games" scenario where increased military activity and tensions between countries could lead to local wars. 3. A "Conserver" scenario where the island becomes a protected marine reserve and site for international cooperation to preserve the environment. 4. A "Z" scenario involving deep diplomacy, demilitarization, joint development between countries, and the

1. Possible Scenarios on the Future of
the Panatag Island (Spratly) using
Jim Dator’s Four Archetypes of
Alternative Futures
Center for Engaged Foresight;
Vedasto J. Samonte School of Graduate Studies,
Northwestern University, Philippines

2. Content of Presentation
• Panatag Island Dispute: What’s in
a name? What lies beneath? What
are their claims? The
Controversies?
• Dator’s Four Future Archetypes
• Panatag Shoal’s Alternative
Futures
• Conclusion

9. What’s in a name?
Philippines – Panatag Island
China – Nansha Island
Taiwan – Minzhu Jiao
Vietnam – Hoang Sa / Troung Sa
Malaysia – Tereumbo Layang Layang
Brunei – Spratly Island (Louissa Reef)

10. The Panatag Island / West
Philippine Sea

11. What Lies Beneath?

14. SEABORNE LIFELINE FOR
CONTINUED ECONOMIC
GROWTH

15. Seaborne Lifeline for CEG
Seaborne Lifeline
diminishing oil
supply
explore and
exploit all
resource
potential
Supply energy
chain for the
new global
economic hub
increase food
consumption
and poverty
levels
alternative
source for new
energy and
resouces
purely
commercial
and liberalize

16. Oil Race instead of Arms
Race

17. Country Existing and New Developments in the Panatag Shoal and the West Philippine
Sea (South China Sea)
Philippines Malampaya and Camago Natural Gas and Condensate Fields (US Oil Giant
Shell operates Malampaya and Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Chevron
have already invested money and technology in the South China Sea )
China Cnooc 981, self-developed oil rig drilling platform began drilling at a depth of
1,500 meters in the Paracel Islands; Cnooc is China’s largest offshore oil
producer
Vietnam Vietnam and India inked an agreement in 2011 to expand and promote oil
exploration in the South China Sea. Vietnam and Russia also inked similar
commercial agreement.
Taiwan Taiwan does not have any commercial projects at present nor intends to pursue
one to prevent a direct confrontation with China; Occupies Itu Aba Island, the
largest Island in the Panatag Shoal.
Malaysia Malaysia Natural Gas Fields located offshore Sarawak; Malaysia is currently
the biggest oil producer in the region
Brunei Brunei Petroleum inked an agreement with China CNOOC for gas and oil
commercial exploration. Brunei is the third largest oil exporter in SEA and
fourth-largest exporter in natural gas.

18. DANGEROUS GAMES,
DANGEROUS GROUNDS

19. Dangerous
Games,
Dangerous
Grounds
renewed, new
military
alliances and
treaties
increase
military
spending and
build-up
Spy Games and
Goodwill Visits
Meddling and
Third Party
Intervention
Cyber Wars and
Vandalism
increase
number of
military and
naval exercises
Trade Sanctions
Halted
Flights/Tour
Cancellations
Banana Split
The US
repositioning to
Asia-Pacific
Region
China's
aggressive
military
expansion
Unrestricted
Warfare
Strategy

21. Arms Race and Local Wars
under Informationalized
conditions

22. FIGHT FIRE WITH WATER
AND THE ICONIC STATUS
QUO

23. Conserver Scenario

24. Conserver/
Disciplined
Marine
Reserve
take the
moral high
ground
desire of
the world
community
Nature Park
Pantag
reserved for
peaceful
purposes
Spratly Fish
Bank
No win
standoff /
Iconic Status
Quo
Monument
for Peace,
Friendship
and
Cooperation
UN world
heritage
site
Global
Center for
Study on
Global
Warming

25. THE “Z” SCENARIO: DEEP
DIPLOMACY,
DEMILITARIZATION AND
JOINT DEVELOPMENT

26. “I do not fear that the flowing
clouds may block my vision,
for where I stand is the top of
the mountain”
Ma Keqing
Chinese Ambassador
to the Philippines (2012)

27. the Z
deep
diplomacy
demilitarization
joint
development
communal
leadership
system
a conversation
of peace,
friendship and
cooperation
regional
cooperation
Asian Union /
Regional
governance
system
dispute of
relations
rather than
things

30. Maraming
Salamat Po!