Presented by Jawoo Koo, Zhe Guo, and Stanley Wood at the CGIAR-CSI Annual Meeting 2009: Mapping Our Future. March 31 - April 4, 2009, ILRI Campus, Nairobi, Kenya

1. It turns out… believe it or not…
IFPRI
… IS SPATIAL TOO!
crop fertilizer
final remarks
introduction
profitability
modeling
JAWOO KOO, ZHE GUO, AND STANLEY WOOD
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CGIAR-CSI 2009, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya (1 APRIL 2009)

2. SChEF ECONOMIC
EVALUTION
dialogue with
CHANGES stakeholders/user groups on
nutrient & water scenarios, evaluation, and
managements, technology-scale evaluation
germplasm adoption,
climate change, etc.
BASELINE
characterization, Ingredients
potential productivity,
 SPAM
profitability
 Production systems characterization
 SIMPLR
 Price modeling
 DREAM
 Web-based data query and visualization tools
SPATIAL CHARATERIZATION & EVALUATION FRAMEWORK
SChEF

3.  ASSESSMENT OF PRODUCTIVITY RESPONSES TO
DETERMINANTS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS
 Variety
 Nutrient management
 Water management
 Biotic constraints
 Abiotic constraints
 Climate change
 DYNAMIC CROP SYSTEMS MODELS
 DSSAT
 APSIM
 WOFOST
 ORYZA
IFPRI HPC (80 CPU’s)
GRID-BASED REGIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF CROP RESPONSES TO CHANGES
DYNAMIC CROP SYSTEMS MODELS

4.  Climatology
 Soils
 Cropping Patterns
 Crop Variety
 Planting Window
 Planting Density
 Water Management
 Nutrient Management (N and P*)
 Residue Management*
 Biotic Stresses*
 Soil Constraints and Interventions (P and pH)*
*Coming Soooooooon!
CROP SYSTEMS MODEL APPLICATIONS
SIMPLR MODELING TEMPLATE

5. Global / Monthly mean of 1950-2000
Tmax,Tmin,Rain / 1km Global / Daily 1997-recent
Srad,Tmax,Tmin,Rain / 1 degree*
*WorldWeather downscales to 15’
HISTORIC CLIMATOLOGY DAILY WEATHER
WorldClim NASA-POWER

6. Continent Count
Africa 1300
Asia 975
Australia 31
Europe 370
North America 291
Oceania 49
South America 388
Total 3404
GLOBAL SOIL PROFILES
ISRIC WISE 1.1 DATABASE

7. GENERIC SOIL PROFILES (HWSD+WISE1.1)
HC27: Fertility x Texture x Depth

8.  Crop: MAIZE
 Model: DSSAT-CSM v4
 Region: SSA
 Resolution: 5 ARC-MIN
 Climate: NASA-POWER
(1998-2007)
 Soils: HC27
 Managements:
 Monthly planting window
 Rainfed/Irrigation
 Three cultivars
(long, medium, and short maturity)
 Supplemental N fertilizer
applications
(0, 20, …, 100 kg*N+/ha)
Latest Dataset Release (Ver.SIM09064)
SPATIAL EVALUATION OF MAIZE PERFORMANCE

9.  Cassava, Chickpea, Cowpea,
Fababean, Maize, Millet,
Mungbean, Potato, Sorghum,
Soybean, Sweet Potato, Wheat,
Rice
 WOFOST & ORYZA
 Global, 1-degree MAIZE | Water limited, med. maturity, coarse soil texture
 NASA-POWER daily weather
(1997-2007)
 Options:
 Biweekly planting window
 Water-limit vs. potential
 Sandy or clayey soil texture
 Three maturity classes
MAIZE | Potential with no limitation
REFERENCE LAYERS
GLOBAL YIELD POTENTIAL

10. Scenario A2A (2050-2000)
kg/ha
< -3,000
MAIZE
-2,999 - -2,000
-1,999 - -1,000
-999 - -500
-499 - 500
501 - 1,000
1,001 - 2,000
> 2,001
Scenario A2A (2050-2000)
Maize: Climate change hotspots (red) kg/ha
GROUNDNUT
< -3,000
-2,999 - -2,000
-1,999 - -1,000
-999 - -500
-499 - 500
501 - 1,000
1,001 - 2,000
> 2,001
HOTSPOT ANALYSIS
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

11. Crop model-
+ SPATIAL Yield
ANN
generated
ASPATIAL
Climate, Soil impacts
training datasets
REDUCED FORM OF CROP SYSTEMS MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

12. Beyond Nitrogen:
1. GIS: What is the location and severity of key soil
productivity constraints in SSA? What crop areas are
affected?
2. SIMPLR: How much yield and production is “currently”
being lost because of these constraints? What is the
annual costs of those losses?
3. SIMPLR: To what extent can the impact of these
constraints be mitigated by improved
inputs/management interventions?
4. DREAM: What is the potential size and distribution
of economic benefits of mitigation/intervention hbo.com
NEW THEME 2009
ABIOTIC CONSTRAINTS TO CROP PRODUCTIVITY AND PRODUCTION

13. Key Factors Influencing Fertilizer Adoption & Profitability
Farmgate
Output Markets
Location & Production
Prices
System Specific
Fertilizer Responses
(Climate/Weather
Farmgate Transport
Soils, Management)
Fertilizer Costs
Prices (on & off road)
Policy Experiments for a more enabling
environment
(a) negotiated urea import discounts
Fertilizer Import Costs
(b) reduced unit transport costs
(c) reduce border crossing costs

14. Maize price Port/border
processing fee
Y2008 Y2006 Y2004
U.S. $/Mt
395.9841 224.3687 219
Migori : KE
U.S.$/kg Stevedore Handling Removal Charge storage Terminal handling
270.7492 153.4093 153.3523
Kitale : KE
Kenya 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.0005 0.008
310.3333 191.3333 206.6667
Eldoret : KE
Uganda 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.0005 0.008
267.4 169.6667 219
Nakuru : KE
293.6 225 219.25
Nairobi : KE
Tanzania 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008
395.3333 224 223.9167
Kisumu : KE
Rwanda 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008
291.4 217.3333 210.75
Mombasa : KE
Burundi 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008
347.6927 220.6128 245
Kitui : KE
265.5 168.875 138
Busia : KE
Source: www.tradeafrica.biz
283.8 270.25 184.2
Kigali : RW
A Guide For Maize Traders on Regulatory Requirements For Import and Export Maize in East African Community
259.5 240.1667 191
Ruhengeri : RW
306.6 187.8333 164.6667
Dar es salaam : TZ
276.6981 156.78 187.6364
Arusha : TZ
231.8831 146.615 114.25
Mbeya : TZ
260.012 205.1448 186.9
Mwanza : TZ
224.5972 153.7778 108.5
Songea : TZ
211.7557 133.8889 118
Sumbawanga : TZ
246.4771 196.1111 176.3333
Tanga : TZ
277.8545 219.2222 206
Bukoba : TZ
252.2355 155.375 133
Iganga : UG
237.6648 175.9224 168.3636
Kabale : UG
245.2 181.5 172.1667
Kampala : UG
200.5419 181 153.3333
Kasese : UG
205.2909 151.9588 150.1818
masindi : UG
303 159.75 165.3333
Mbale : UG
254 171.25 150.6667
Lira : UG
Source: Regional Agricultural trade intelligence network

15. Policy Scenarios Scenario:1 Reduced
Procurement Cost
Negotiated decrease
in import
price of Urea (50%)
Scenario 2: Road
Transport Cost
Reduce road
transport costs by
20% per ton per km
Scenario 3: Reduce
Border Cost
Border-crossing cost
reduces 50%
Baseline

16. Maize Markets & Market Prices
40 maize
40 towns & cities reporting 2005 av. maize prices in
“marketsheds”
maize prices each marketshed

17. Maize transport costs from
Net maize “farmgate” price
farmgate to target market

18. VCRs: Baseline and policy scenarios 1 & 2
(estimated at 35kg N/ha)
< 0.5
0.5-1.0
Baseline 2: 20% lower road transport
1: 50% lower urea
1.1-2.0
cost
procurement price
2.1-4.0
>4.0

19. VCR By Country & Market Access
(early 2008)
VCR by Market Access Class
Country High Med. Low Average
Burundi 2.5 2 2 2.25
Kenya 2.75 2.25 1.5 2.25
Rwanda 2 1.5 1.5 1.75
Tanzania 3.25 2.75 1.25 2.5
Uganda 3 2 1.75 2
All 2.75 2.25 1.5 2.25

20. WHERE TO INVEST?
AG MARKET FINDER | marketfinder.info

21. Demonstration*
http://marketfinder.info
*Please, FREE the network for a moment!
WHERE TO INVEST?
AG MARKET FINDER | marketfinder.info

22.  SPAM* UPDATE
 2000 ver.3
 2005
 AEZ UPDATE FOR SSA
 HARVESTCHOICE DOMAIN
 VISUALIZATIONS: GKS-2-HMNS
*NO name change!
THINGS KEEP US BUSY
UPDATES

23. Mashup Ingredients
 Map data (e.g., Shapefile)
 Map tiles using GMapCreator
 Google Maps API
 Base map
 Interface
 Marker
 Reverse Geocoding
 Overlaying tiles
 Ajaxing using jQuery
 Apache Web Server
 Data tables in MySQL
 Programming in PHP (CodeIgniter)
 Google Chart API
 Lots of Coffee
DATA EXPLORATION AND VISUALIZATION
DROPPR