3. How do we measure the performance
of an economy?
A country’s economic performance is measured by
indicators of National Income ( GDP or GNP).
Performance of an economy is the level of production
(of goods and services) or total economic activity.
It estimate’s the total value of production in an economy.
4. Definition of National Income
“National income is a measure of the total market value of the
goods and services (output) produced by an economy over a
period of time (normally a year)”.
1) It is a Monetary Measure
2) Goods and Services to be counted only once
( Final goods and not intermediate goods)
5. Need for the Study of National Income
A national income measure serves various purposes regarding
economy, production, trade, consumption, policy formulation, etc.
1. To measure the size of the economy and level of country’s
economic performance.
2. To trace the trend or speed of the economic growth in relation
to previous year(s) as well as to other countries.
3. To know the structure and composition of the national income
in terms of various sectors and the periodical variations in them.
4. To make projection about the future development trend of the
economy.
6. 5. To help government formulate suitable development plans and
policies to increase growth rates.
6. To fix various development targets for different sectors of the
economy on the basis of the earlier performance.
7. To help business firms in forecasting future demand for their
products.
8. To make international comparison of people’s living standards.
However it has its own “Limitations”……….
7. 3 Interpretation of National Income
National Income = National Product = National Expenditure
The sum of values of all goods and services produced
( Production).
The sum of all incomes, in cash and kind, accruing to factors of
productions in a year (Distribution).
The sum of consumers, investment and government expenditure
(Expenditure).
8. Circular Flow of Income
Modern Economy is a monetary economy
Money act a medium of Exchange
A circular flow of money or income exist
Each money flow is in opposite direction to real flow
Flow of money income will not always remain constant
10. Two Sector Model of Income
Distribution
Factor Payments
Rent, Wages, Interest, profits
Economic Resources
Land, Labour, Capital, Enterprise
Business Firms
Households
Goods and Services
Consumption Expenditure
12. Three Sector Model of Income
Distribution
What if household save?
The expenditure on goods and services decline
Savings reduces the flow of money expenditure to the business firms
Firms hire fewer workers / reduce factor payments
Causes a fall in Economy's Total Income.
Hence savings a “leakage” from the money expenditure flow
Savings = Investments
Investment is injection of money in circular flow of income
13. Three Sector Model of Income
Distribution
Factor Payments
Business Firms
Households
Consumption Expenditure
g
in ts
w en
rro stm
Bo nve
ri
fo
Financial Market
gs
n
vi
Sa
14. What if
Investment ≠ Savings?
Investment < Savings
Stocks of goods will Increase
Demand reduces
Production falls
Investment in capital goods will fall
Income , output and employment Falls
Flow of money contracts
Which leads to
Rate of interest falls
Leads to increase in investment
Hence
Savings = Investments
15. What if
Investment ≠ Savings?
Investment > Savings
Stocks of goods will falls
Demand rises
Production rises
Investment in capital goods will rise
Income , output and employment increases
Flow of money expand
Which leads to
Rate of interest rise
Leads to increase in savings
Hence
Savings = Investments
16. Why are poor countries poor?
Economic Wealth :
Man-made resources (road, factories, machines, communication
system)
Human Resources ( Hard and education)
Technological Resources ( High tech machinery)
Poor countries should grow rich by investing money in physical resources
and developing human and technological resources.
Poor countries should grow faster as new investments have the biggest
rewards.
Rich countries don’t gain much from further investments:
“ law of diminishing returns”
17. Why are poor countries poor?
So what should they do?
They should improve there education, technology and infrastructure.
Since the Returns for investors are high, there should be no
shortage of Investment.
Countries should take loan from banks for reconstruction and
development.
Countries can take foreign aids from rich countries.
This didn’t happen? WHY?
Except for countries like Taiwan, South Korea, China, India,
Singapore
18. Money Flows with Government
Sector
Government absorbs a good part of the incomes earned by
Households.
Government purchases goods and services from firms
Government spends on capital goods, infrastructure, defence,
education and health etc.
Household and firms pay taxes to Government.
Government also finance their expenditure by borrowing from the
financial market
Hence the Government
Intervenes and take preventive and corrective action to
stabilise an Economy
19. Three Sector Model of Income
Distribution
Factor Payments
Business Firms
Households
Consumption Expenditure
Financial Market
Borrowing
Government
20.
Total Expenditure (E) = C + I + G
Consumption Expenditure (C)
Investment Expenditure (I)
Government Expenditure (G)
Total Income (Y) = C + S + T
Consumption ( C)
Savings (S)
Taxes ( T )
E=Y
C+I+G= C+S+T
I+G=S+T
G – T= S – I
G> T (Budget deficit)
Government borrows from the financial market
21. Four Sector Model of Income Distribution
Foreign Sector
Factor Payments
Households
Business Firms
Consumption Expenditure
Financial Market
Borrowing
Government
22. Four Sector Model of Income
Distribution
Balance of Trade
Export (X) = Import (M)
National Income = C + I+ G+ Xn ( X-M)
C + I + G + Xn = C + S+ T
24. Economic Development
Phase 1 : Pre-1991
Policy tended towards
protectionism,
with a strong emphasis on import substitution,
industrialisation,
state intervention in labour and financial markets,
a large public sector,
business regulation, and
central planning.
Faced crises like
Wars – China (61) & Pakistan (65, 71)
Oil crisis (73, 79)
Severe Draughts (65-67)
25. Economic Development
Phase 2 : Post-1991
Late 80’s
Policy changes
Eased restrictions on capacity expansion for incumbents,
Removed price controls and
Reduced corporate taxes.
This increased the rate of growth,
But led to high fiscal deficits and a worsening current account.
Balance-of-payment crisis
The collapse of the Soviet Union, which was India's major
trading partner.
Gulf War, which caused a spike in oil prices.
27. The basic concepts…
GNP
vs GDP
Market Price Vs Factor costs
Gross Vs Net
Nominal Vs Real
PI
( Personnel Income)
Disposable Income
Per capita
28. GDP vs GNP
Gross
Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
“sum total of values of goods & services
produced in the country, in a given year”
29. GDP vs GNP
Gross
National Product (GNP)
GNP = GDP + net factor income from abroad
“sum total of values of goods & services produced
by the nationals of a country, in a given year”
30. Net factor income from abroad:
Is the difference between
income received from abroad by the normal residents
of India for rendering services in other countries and
the income paid to the foreign residents for the
services rendered by them in India.
31. GDP vs GNP
Gross
National Product (GNP)
GNPMP = GDPMP + net factor income from abroad
GNP = C + I +G + (X-M) + (R-P)
R =
P =
Income receipts from abroad
Income paid abroad
32. Requirements for Calculating GNP
It measures the market value of annual output
It’s a Monetary measure
GNP accounts for goods that are traded through official market
i.e free of cost are not included
All good and services must be counted once
Income earned through illegal activities are not included
33. GDP Vs GNP
GDP
Used when the purpose is to measure the product generated in a
country.
i.e. whatever is produced in India, will go to constitute GDP, no
matter even if foreigners have contributed towards it
GNP
Used when the purpose is to measure the product that accrues
to the citizens of a country.
i.e. whatever is produced by Indian nationals whether inside or
outside the country will form GNP of India
34. Market Prices Vs Factor Costs
The GNP / GDP can be estimated at
Market Prices
Factor Cost
The Market Prices is a resultant of
Indirect Taxes; and
Subsidies
Factor Cost =
Market Price – Indirect Taxes + Subsidies
Hence Factor Cost estimates are more ‘real’.
35. Gross Vs Net
In the process of creating national product – there is erosion
of total productive assets
Net estimates account for this erosion (called Depreciation)
Net
=
Gross - Depreciation
36. Nominal Vs Real
The price trend does not remain constant, it can rise or fall.
Hence the estimates in terms of money value will increase as
price of commodities have risen even if their physical output
hasn’t.
Economic Growth implies increase in real or physical output
than the rise in money value of output.
Adjustment of the National Income figures for the change in
prices needs to be done. – Deflating the NI
‘Real’ estimates account for this increase in prices
37. Nominal Vs Real
Increase in Price
:
Is denoted by Price Index
Price Index
Selection of Base year
Price Index for Base year is taken to be 100
Price Index for the current year
: (Current base year 1999-2000)
Current Year Prices / Base Year Prices X 100
So if Price index is 145 – then prices as compared to Base year
have increased by 45%
38. Nominal Vs Real
Real estimates
Hence
Nominal
Real
=
=
=
Nominal Estimates
---------------------------- X 100
Price Index
Estimates at current prices
Estimates at fixed prices
39. The Estimates
Estimate
Definition
GDP
C + I + G + (X-M)
GNP
GDP + NFIA
GDPFC
GDPMP – Indirect Taxes + Subsidies
NDP
GDP - Depreciation
Real GDP
Nominal GDP/ Price Index * 100
GNI
GNP
NNP
GNP - Depreciation
NI
NNPFC
40. National income (NI) or National Income at
Factor Cost (NNPFC)
It refers to the sum of all incomes earned by factor owners for their
contribution of factor services namely land, labour, capital and
enterprises in the form of rent, wages, interest and profit.
NI = NNPFC = NNP MP - Indirect Taxes + Subsidies
41. Personal
Income (PI)
It is the sum of all incomes received by all individual or households
during a given year.
PI = National Income + Transfer payments – (Social security +
Corporate Income tax + Undistributed Profits)
Transfer Payments = Incomes which are not earned but received
( Old- age pensions, unemployment compensation, relief payments)
42. Disposable
Income (DI)
DI= Personal Income – Personal Taxes
Or
Disposable income can either be consumed or saved
DI= Consumption ( C) + Savings (S)
DI includes Transfer payments
It is the total income earned and unearned of individuals minus
direct taxes.
43. Per
Capita Income (PCI)
Per capita income (or) output per person is an indicator to show
the living standards of people in a country.
If real PCI increases, it is considered to be an improvement in the
overall living standard of people.
National Income
PCI = --------------------------Population
44. The Estimates
Estimate
Definition
GDP
C + I + G + (X-M)
GNP
GDP + FIFA
GDPFC
GDPMP – Indirect Taxes + Subsidies
NDP
GDP - Depreciation
Real GDP
Nominal GDP/ Price Index * 100
GNI
GNP
NNP
GNP - Depreciation
NI
NNPFC
PI
NI + Transfer Payments – (Social Security +
Corporate Income Tax + Undistributed profits)
DI
C + S or PI – Personal Taxes
PCI
NI/ Population
45. Examples…
GNP
500 ( Rs Cr)
Capital Consumption Allowance
- 50
Net National Product (NNP)
450
Indirect Taxes
- 60
Subsidies
10
National Income ( NI )
400
Corporate Profits
- 70
Dividends
15
Government Transfer payments
25
Personal Income
370
Personal Indirect Taxes
- 70
Disposable Personal Income (DPI)
300
Personal Consumption expenditure
- 275
Personal Savings
25
46. Exercise
Q1. Find the Personal Disposable Income (PDI)
Rs. Trillion
National Income
Undistributed Profits
Corporate Taxes
Personal Taxes
Ans.
=
=
=
=
20
1.00
2.00
1.50
48. Exercise
Q3. Find the GNPMP and NNPMP
Rs. crores
GDPFC
NFIA
Indirect Taxes
Subsidies
Depreciation
Ans.
=
=
=
=
=
10,000
500
1,000
500
1,000
49. Exercise
Q4. Find the GNPMP , NNPFC and PDI
Rs. Lakh crore
GNPFC
Indirect Taxes
Subsidies
Depreciation
Undistributed Profits
Corporate Taxes
Personal Taxes
Ans.
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
15.00
2.00
1.00
1.2
0.5
3.00
1.50
50. Exercise
Q5. Find the GNPMP , GDPMP, NNIMP, NDPMP and PDI
Rs. crore
GDPFC
= 30,000
Indirect Taxes
= 4,000
Subsidies
= 2,000
Depreciation
= 2,000
Undistributed Profits
= 1,250
Corporate Taxes
= 6,000
Personal Taxes
= 4,000
Factor Income received from abroad = 7,500
Factor income paid abroad
= 9,000
Ans.
51. Q6. A) Find the real national income or national income at
constant price.
B) Find the real annual growth in NI for various years
Year
NI AT
Current Prices (Rs
000’ crores)
Wholesale Price
Index Number
(Base 1993-94=100)
1994-95 854.1
112.6
1995-96 941.8
121.6
1996-97 1093.9
127.2
1997-98 1376.8
132.8
1998-99 1583.1
140.7
1999-00 1740.2
145.3
2000-01 1878.4
155.7
2001-02 2060.6
161.3
53. A quick recap…
NI
=
NNPFC
NNPFC
=
NDPFC
NDPFC
=
GDPMP – D + S – T
+
NFIFA
We will now estimate NDPFC by the 3 methods
54. 3 Interpretation of NI
National Income = National Product = National Expenditure
Y= O=E
The sum of values of all goods and services produced
( Production).
The sum of all incomes, in cash and kind, accruing to factors of
productions in a year (Distribution).
The sum of consumers, investment and government expenditure
(Expenditure).
56. 3 Methods of estimating NI
1.
Value Added Method
2.
Income Method
3.
Expenditure Method
57. 1. Value Added Method
Called as Output or Production method
Value added is the difference between a firm’s sales and its
purchase of raw materials and services from other firms.
The economy is divided into different industrial sectors:
Agriculture, fishing, mining, manufacturing, construction,
trade, transport, communication ..............
Contribution of each enterprise to the generation of flow is
measured
58. 1. Value Added Method
Objective
Method of
Estimation
Value Add
Source of
Data
Estimate
Total Output/
Production
Value Add
Output
Price
Enterprises
Input
Cost
59. The Process
Classification into industrial sectors
Calculate Net Output
for each enterprise
Total units produced X MRP
Subtract – Input cost
O - I = P (production)
Subtract – Depreciation & Indirect Tax
P–D+S–T
= Value Add of each enterprise
Collate for all enterprises in a sector
Sector contribution
Collate for all sectors
NDPFC
60. Precautions
To be Included in NI
Not to be included in NI
1. Rent of self- occupied
1.
houses
2. Value of production for self
consumption
2.
3.
Sale and purchase of second
hand goods
Value of intermediate goods
Value of services of Housewives
61. 2. Income Method
It approaches NI from distribution side
To produce goods and services we require the factors of production
The owners of these factors participate in the production for which
they receive INCOME – Wages, rent, interest and profit.
It identifies the productive enterprises and classify them into various
sectors
It’s the sum of incomes of all individuals of a country
62. 2. Income Method
Objective
Income
Difficulties in
differentiating
earnings
Estimate
Total Income
Wages,
Rents,
Interests,
Profits.
land vs capital
labour vs entrepreneurial
function
Income
Classification
Labour
Capital
Mixed
Source of
Data
Enterprises
63. The Process
Classification into industrial sectors
Classify factor payments
Labour, Capital, Fixed
Measure Labour Payments
Wages & Salaries
Why have we not accounted for
Measure Capital Payouts
1. Depreciation
Dividends, Undistributed Profits
Indirect Interest, Royalties, Rent
Taxes
&
2. Rent/ Interest income received by Individuals
Measure Mixed Income
Self-employed
(Salaries cum Profits)3. Exports/ Imports
Collate for all enterprises in a sector
Sector contribution
Collate for all sectors
NDPFC
64. Precautions
To be Included in NI
Not to be included in NI
1.Imputed rent of self- occupied
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
houses
2. Value of production for self
consumption
Transfer Payments
Illegal Money
Windfall gains- prizes, lotteries
Corporate profit Tax
Sale of second- hand goods
66. The Process
Final private consumption expenditure
C (individuals/ households)
Government’s final consumption
expenditure
G
Gross domestic capital formation
(Fixed capital + Addition to stocks)
I (enterprises)
Net Exports
X-M
Summation = Total Expenditure
C + G + I + (X-M) = GDPMP
Subtract : Depreciation
GDPMP – D = NDPMP
Subtract : Indirect taxes
NDPMP – (S-T) = NDPFC
67. Precautions
Not to be included in NI
1.
Sale and purchase of second hand goods
2.
Expenditure on intermediate goods
3.
Expenditure on Transfer Payments
4.
Purchase of shares and Bonds as they do not
add to NI.
68. In Sum
Value
Added
NI = (P-D) + (S-T) + (X-M) + (R-P)
Income
NI = (w + r + i + n) + (X-M) + (R-P)
Expenditure
NI = (C + I + G) + (X-M) + (R-P)
69. Choice of Method
Choice of Method depends upon
i) The purpose of national income analysis
ii) Availability of necessary data
The task of estimating NI in India is with CSO ( Central statistical
organization)
CSO uses output and Income method
Output Method – Agriculture and Manufacturing
Income Method - Services
70. Difficulties in calculating NI
1.
Non- Monetized Transactions
2.
Black Money
3.
Double Counting
4.
Transfer Incomes
5.
Growing Service Sector
6.
Household Services
7.
Social Services
8.
Environmental Cost
9.
Government Incomes
10.
Capital Gains
71. Difficulties in India
1.
Reliable data is not available
2.
Large regional diversity
3.
Illiteracy
4.
Lack of differentiation of economic functions
5.
Presence of unorganized sectors
6.
Presence of large non- monetized transactions