The document discusses the growing global challenges of meeting increasing energy and water demands in a sustainable manner. It notes that fossil fuels will continue dominating energy production for the foreseeable future and outlines strategies like improving efficiency, expanding renewable energy sources like solar and wind paired with energy storage, and developing cleaner alternatives to displace coal and gas over time. The document also emphasizes the critical importance of water security and developing solutions that balance energy, environmental, and development needs across countries that share river basins.

1. Growing Energy-Water Demand:
Implications for sustainable development
Rajan Gupta
Laboratory Fellow
Theoretical Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA
LA-UR 12-21494

2. Highlights
• Ignore energy security and climate security at global peril
• You cannot wish away fossil fuels – create alternatives ! R&D
• Evolution of coal-fired power – self limiting in most countries
• Emergence of natural gas – more than a bridge fuel Hydro &
• Growth of solar & wind requires storage & smart grid gas turbines
as backup
• Water security and hydropower
• Is China too big to be allowed to fail?
• Population stabilization
• Policy will be made with uncertain, incomplete information.
Collateral repercussions will increase in a complex interconnected world
• Ever growing need for Enlightened Leadership

3. Sustainable Development:
The development-energy-environment-climate challenge
• Development: moral imperative, creates resilient
societies, facilitates transformations, drives politics
• Energy: basis of modern technological societies
• Water: basis of life
• Environment: health and sustainability
• Climate: the driver of the need to transform to
carbon-neutral energy and transportation systems
Climate Change: Impacts are global, long-term
and likely catastrophic

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5. The mean temperature is rising
Mean temperature rise since 1900 ~ 0.74oC

6. Land Temperature is rising faster
We do not
know the full
consequences
of current 395
ppm of CO2!!!
A change in Tav (land) from 20 year patterns between 1800-1960 to a
uniform growth after 1970. Rise in mean temperature since 1970 ~ 0.9oC
Source: http://berkeleyearth.org/analysis/

7. The timeliness and strength of our actions will decide ONE number
that nature cares about: CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
Billions of Tons BAU (easier) CO2 target
16 Carbon Emitted ~850 ppm
per Year
Stabilization Interim Goal ~500 ppm only
Triangle
395 if emissions stabilize TODAY
8 Historical
emissions Flat path
1.6
Source: CMI Princeton
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
Full warming due to 395 ppm CO2 are not known

8. QUESTIONS:
When and at what level will GHG emissions peak?
Billions of Tons
16 Carbon Emitted
per Year
Stabilization
Triangle
395
8 Historical
emissions
1.6
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
Nature will enforce consequences

9. The world will not stop using fossil fuels in the
21st century because there is not enough, but
because there are cleaner cost-effective alternatives
• High Energy density: energy per kilogram
• High Power density: Power per unit volume Fossil
Fuels are
• Safe: Do not self combust and are easy to use amazing
sources
• Transport: Easy to transport around the world of energy
• Easy and cheap to extract from the ground:
Challenges: Environment, Climate Change

10. The energy goal is clear
Need cheap clean carbon-neutral (C3) energy
for electric power and transportation needs.
The challenge is
meeting these needs without using fossil fuels
(and without nuclear power in some countries)

11. Coal and Gas for power generation
• ~25 countries dominate coal use
– Future big players: China, India, USA
• Natural gas is/will be the dominant fuel in many
regions of the world
• Urbanization is proceeding at a very rapid rate
– Numbers of Mega-cities and large cities are growing
and will remain centers of economic activity.
– Large centralized power plants near cities will
continue to have the benefit of economy of scale.
2020-2050: Coal and gas will retain >4TW capacity

12. Total Installed Capacity: China, India, USA
China India United States
1,200.000
Gas
1,000.000 Electric Power
Generation:
GigaWatts
800.000
600.000
USA: 50% Coal
Coal China: 80% Coal
400.000
India: 70% Coal
200.000
0.000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
1987
1997
2007
Coal capacity will saturate in China & India !
each country plans 500+ GW of nuclear capacity in
addition to coal and gas to meet their power needs
Source: EIA, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

13. Cheap gas in the U.S. is replacing coal
China India United States
35%
1,200.000
Gas
1,000.000 Electric Power
Generation:
GigaWatts
800.000
600.000
USA: 50% Coal
Coal China: 80% Coal
400.000
India: 70% Coal
200.000
0.000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
1987
1997
2007
Coal capacity will saturate in China & India !
each country plans 500+ GW of nuclear capacity in
addition to coal and gas to meet their power needs
Source: EIA, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

14. Coal-fired power in 21 Countries
• USA (1000/230000) • China (3500/114000)
• UK (18/228) • Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%)
• Germany (183/41000) • Vietnam (45/150)
• Poland (135/5700) • Australia (424/76000)
• Czech, Ukraine, • Indonesia (306/5500)
Bulgaria, Romania, • India (570/60000)
Greece, Turkey (350/42000)
• Russia (325/157000)
• South Africa (255/30000)
• Kazakhstan (110/33000)
(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) MT (%) % power generated by coal: (BP2011)

15. China burns ~50% of world coal
• USA (1000/230000) • China (3500/114000)
• UK (18/228) • Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%)
• Germany (183/41000) • Vietnam (45/150)
• Poland (135/5700) • Australia (424/76000)
• Czech, Ukraine, • Indonesia (306/5500)
Bulgaria, Romania, • India (570/60000)
Greece, Turkey (350/42000)
• Russia (325/157000)
• South Africa (255/30000)
• Kazakhstan (110/33000)
(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) MT (%) % power generated by coal: (BP2011)

16. By 2050 only 7/21 will remain coal rich countries
• USA (1000/230000) • China (3250/114000)
• UK (18/228) • Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%)
• Germany (183/41000) • Vietnam (45/150)
• Poland (135/5700) • Australia (424/76000)
• Czech, Ukraine, • Indonesia (306/5500)
Bulgaria, Romania, • India (570/60000)
Greece, Turkey (350/42000)
• Russia (325/157000)
• South Africa (255/30000)
• Kazakhstan (110/33000)
(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) million tons (%) power generated by coal: (BP2011)

17. De-carbonizing: Technology
• Fuel Substitution
Gas Hydro
Coal Wind
Nuclear
Solar
Charging
• Higher fuel efficiency cars ! electric vehicles

18. Natural Gas: the multi-purpose fuel
Dominant in Major fuel in
• South America (after Hydro) • North America
• North Africa • Europe
• Middle East • South-east Asia
• Central Asia, Iran • Australia
• Russia • China (Shale Gas)
Shale Gas: USGS

19. Countries that can switch to gas relatively easily
Growth using shale gas
• USA? • China
• UK • Japan, Korea, Taiwan
• Germany • Vietnam
• Poland • Australia
• Czech, Ukraine, • Indonesia
Bulgaria, Romania, • India
Greece, Turkey
• Russia • South Africa
• Kazakhstan Growth using shale gas
Almost all of these countries will have nuclear power plants. ??GW??

20. Solar and Wind
• On a purely kWh cost basis (2012)
– Wind @ $1/Wattp is competitive
• $0.10/kW-hour
– Solar is 2-3X more expensive:
For sustainability: utility scale capital costs = $2/Wattp installed
• $0.20/kWh
• Intermittency & daily/seasonal variations are key challenges
solar

21. A stable grid must dynamically take care
of variability in demand & generation
• Day, week and seasonal variations in demand and generation
• Need to plan for highest peak load if brownouts unacceptable
Source: Paul Denholm, NREL

22. Storage is the 1st key
• There are only two large-scale storage systems
that provide backup to solar and wind:
• Hydro: (reservoir based)
– seasonal regulation ! only about 40% of rated capacity Hydro
• Hydro: (pumped storage) + Gas
turbines
– daily regulation: only 40% of day in generation mode + Wind
• Gas Turbines (intermediate step to reduce CO2 ) + Solar
– GT are oil or gas based with natural gas being more efficient
– Unlimited potential but give rise to large GHG emissions
if required to cover 50-70% of the load on a typical day

23. Smart Grid is the 2nd key
• Integrating power generation, transmission, distribution, load
with information systems and real-time monitors
• Management of generation to minimize fossil-fuel use
– integrating the full potential of solar and wind
• Demand management to
– compensate for fluctuations
in wind and solar generation
by controlling load
– Reduce/balance peak loads

24. Water has no substitute
• Essential for life and agriculture
• Industrial processes
• Thermal Power generation
Over 2 billion
people live in
water stressed
areas. Severity
and numbers
are growing.
IPCC 2007

25. Climate change could disrupt India’s Monsoon.
Essential for Rain and Himalayan Snow cover

26. Hydropower & Irrigation
• The potential of most rivers has already been exploited
• Contention for water amongst riparian states will increase.
Scarcity will increase the probability of wars over water.
• Major development planned by China and India
• A large fraction of Chinese development is planned in
high Himalayas (Tibet) in the Tsangpo-Bhramaputra basin
– Steep hillsides with narrow valleys
– Prone to large landslides
– Active earthquake zone with major faults
• Growing Soil Salinity

27. Possible-Existing Projects

28. This is an Active Seismic Zone
Map Source: Terry Wallace

29. Impacts of these dams downstream?

30. Mekong River Basin:
A lifeline for
• China
• Burma-China
• Burma-Laos
• Laos-Thailand
• Laos-Cambodia
• Cambodia
• Vietnam

31. Water Wars
• When river basins span international borders
! Which riparian state can build water management systems?
! Dams
! Canals
! Hydroelectric Power Plants
! How much water can a country withdraw for its “needs”?
! Reservoirs ! Increased evaporation losses
• Water rights reflect history not equity
– Militarily strongest nations have dictated rights and these
“historic” rights are hard to change
• Water wars at the individual farmer level

32. The Nile
• Egypt has dominated rights
• Ethiopia and Uganda are
hydropower dependent
• Ethiopia and Sudan’s
growing populations
need water
• ~30% of water evaporates at
Lake Nasser (Aswan dam)

33. What can nature sustain?
OECD, China, India, …
or
OECD + (China or India or …)
or
only OECD
And at what level of resource use?

34. What can nature sustain?
OECD, China, India, … 9 Billion
or
OECD + (China or India or …) 3 Billion
or
only OECD 1.5 billion
At U.S. or EU or Brazil’s level?

35. What can nature sustain?
OECD, China, India, … 9 Billion
(Brazil)
or
OECD + (China or India or …) 3 Billion
(EU)
or
only OECD 1.5 billion
(USA)
Mesa Verde: now
a tourist attraction

36. Options:
High efficiency use of energy:
Broad based R&D in energy-
climate science and technology:

37. Innovation Fund:
If I was allowed to pick only 5 Priorities
• Storage: 3X Battery for cars (Higher power and energy density
and longer life). Fuel cells? Grid scale storage?
• Solar PV at $1-2/Wattp installed & 200 GW/yr manufacturing
capacity (16 x 2012). Address the issue of rare Energy Critical Elements
• Forecasting and control systems
– Smart Grid to integrate solar and wind & manage load:
• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
• Nuclear Fuel Cycle: reprocessing & waste management

38. 4 Infrastructure (Efficiency) Priorities
• Cities and communities planned around energy efficiency
• Public transport & electric long-haul railway
• Energy efficient buildings
• Solar/geothermal hot water and heat-ventilation-AC
(HVAC) systems

39. What lies ahead
• Environmental degradation & loss of ecosystems/species
• Water shortages in large parts of China and India
• Accumulating evidence of Climate Change
– Impacts of intense heat & storms on infrastructure & agriculture
• Uncertainty in timeline and scale of solar and wind
– Uncertainty in date & height of peak in GHG emissions
• Volatility in price of fossil fuels for many countries
– Many countries will continue to not be able to afford clean
(or even fossil) energy systems and lack Energy Security
Policy will have to be made under uncertainty & stress

40. Oil, Coal, Gas Prices: Expect Volatility
NW Europe USA (Appalachian)
Japan Coking Japan Steam
US$/Tonne
300.00
200.00
Coal 100.00
0.00
1989
1991
1993
1995
1999
2001
2003
2005
2009
2011
1987
1997
2007
Gas: US$/Mbtu
Natural Gas
Source: BP Statistical Review 2012

41. Is China too big to be allowed to fail?
• Chinese leaders must deliver prosperity to maintain political
control by the communist party
• China wants to be & is the manufacturing center of the world.
It already has a large trade surplus with most countries.
• China needs to dominate resources and markets to succeed
• China’s rise has been unprecedented in scope & speed
• China is central to discussions/policy on geo-politics (Syria,
Iran, Pakistan, North-Korea, …), economy, sustainable
development, climate change
• Will China emerge as an enlightened world leader or remain
self-centered and disdainful of human rights?
• Can the world afford a single dominant manufacturing center?

42. Land routes & barriers to resources and markets

43. Change is happening
People are becoming more aware and concerned
People are asking for action
Alternate energy systems are maturing
Goal is to accelerate this transformation by moving
from organic evolution to a planned/equitable one

44. Population stabilization
• Almost all the population growth is happening in the
lowest/poorest 25% (South Asia, Middle East, Africa)
• 2050: India !1.75 billion, China !1.44 billion
• Will require enormous resources to integrate these
large populations into knowledge societies and
prevent systemic generational poverty
• Access to information & travel has raised expectations
• Can these expectations be met sustainably?
• Can technology provide sustainable options?

45. Sustainable Development?
• The global system is being pushed to [over] the edge
of sustainability and natural recovery on all fronts
making it vulnerable to catastrophic failures
• Formulating consistent policy over decades in the face
of uncertainty & costs requires exceptional leadership
• Enlightened Governance
– Outstanding Leadership
– Trust
– Transparency/No Corruption
– Bi-partisan Politics

46. Munch’s 3-D view of our collective
responsibility towards the global
commons and human impact on nature
My view:
playing
dice with
nature

47. Extras

48. De-carbonizing the global economy
GDP CO2 Energy
CO2 = Population ! ------------- ! --------- ! --------
Population Energy GDP
~+1% ~+4% ~-0.1% ~-1.5%
Population Prosperity: Carbon Energy
stabilization: historically it Intensity: Intensity:
a political has driven De-carbonize Efficiency
hard sell people, policy technology
and politicians
Reading: “The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change”, Dessler and Parson, Cambridge University Press;
“The Climate Fix”, Roger Pielke Jr., Basic Books, 2010