I was asked to deliver a keynote on my views of the future of Agile. I see agile organisations using a decentralized model, empowering teams to work directly with customers and in this talk reference the Haier micro-enterprises model as a successful implementation of this.

1. Date
20 // Nov // 2019
Agile from
here

2. Moi
/ 2 /
• Chef (6 years)
• BSc Comp Sci (UoC)
• Consulting entire career
• Stumbled over agile in 2002
• Built & sold 2 companies
• Trainer #8 @ Scrum.org
• Met some of manifesto signatories and some
awesome agile thought leaders
• Have worked with Jeff Sutherland and Ken
Schwaber
• Family man – 4 kids
• Live on an organic farm in Warkworth,
partially self-sufficient

3. Title
/ 3 /
Text to go here Text to go here

4. Learning from Yesterday:
The Ages of Agile
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5. The Crisis
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The time between a validated
business need & application in
production was ~ 3 years
Even 25 years ago, businesses
moved faster than that!
1990s 2000s 2010s

6. The Pioneer Age
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Thought leaders sought a better way
Rogue River Lodge 2000, then Snowbird
early 2001 -> Agile Manifesto
Agile was not the goal. “Lightweight"
practices were
How can we build working software
quickly and get it into the hands of end
users?
1990s 2000s 2010s

7. The Age of Resistance
/ 7 /
Project Management community hated agile
Deeply entrenched vested interests
Complete and utter denial, despite early
successes.
“Bureaucracy defends the status quo long
past the time the quo has lost its status.”
1990s 2000s 2010s
The Peter Principle, Dr Laurence J. Peter

8. The Tipping Point
/ 8 /
Many published success stories. Benefits no
longer deniable.
Businesses take agile seriously. Many obtain
advantage from moving SW development agile.
Worlds largest software developer (US DoD)
goes agile.
The Lean Start-up, Continuous Delivery & The
Leader's Guide to Radical Management
published.
1990s 2000s 2010s

9. The Age of Mainstream Agile
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Most software projects agile. Scaling becomes a
challenge.
Businesses try to force agile fit into traditional
business designs and struggle.
Fluffy-agile-no-managers movement emerges
New operating models appear (e.g. Spotify).
Large scale cash-in on Agile, especially from
previously anti-agile large consulting companies
1990s 2000s 2010s

10. The Age of Dilution
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Overnight agile experts
Heavyweight agile frameworks try to “scale agile
to the enterprise”, completely missing the point
Business agility - agile coaches try to solve
business challenges with agile software
frameworks and no little business acumen or
experience: “it works for software, it must also
work for business.” Install agile!!!
Agile’s core essence diluted. McAgile!
1990s 2000s 2010s

11. So where to from here?
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12. The future of Agile is bright (despite the Age of Dilution)
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Three key trends that will drive further use of agile:
1. The pace of change
2. Automation
3. Changing workforce demographics

13. / 13 /
• Increased uncertainty & exponential
Complexity will make traditional
management obsolete
• The power balance will continue to
transfer to the customer. Firms that are
not customer centric will struggle more
than they already are
• The lifespan of firms will continue to
decline. Firms that are designed for
agility & responsiveness will win
The rise of Agile is driven both by the passion of those who love working this way
and by organizations that are making a life-changing discovery: the only way to
cope sustainably with today’s marketplace is to embrace Agile.
- Steve Denning, Forbes
Trend 1: The Pace of Change

14. / 14 /
In 5 years, 35% of skills considered
important today will have changed.
Most critical skills will be
• Creativity
• People management
• Coordinating with others
• Emotional intelligence
• Judgement and decision making
• Service orientation
• Negotiation
• Cognitive flexibility
Trend 2: Automation
Agile is at the intersection of social
and technical skills
Automated
Oversupplied In Demand

15. Trend 3: Changing Workforce
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• The shortage of talent (see previous)
• A younger workforce
• demands flexibility & modern ways of working
• more sceptical they can find fulfilment at work
• The importance of Play, Purpose and Potential at
work
• Play - curiosity, openness and experimentation.
I get to help shape how the work is done
• Purpose – why are we doing this?
• Potential – what is my growth?
Agile is more closely aligned to the needs of future
workers

16. My prediction…
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17. The future is a descaled organisation
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• Complexity is best tackled with
Simplicity
• Scale the organisation to agile,
don’t scale agile to the organisation
• Small, autonomous, self-managed
units, with a specific accountability
• Intent-based or collective
leadership towards a common goal

18. Case Study: Haier
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• World’s largest appliance maker - 75,000 employees
• 23% growth year on year for 10 years, created <$2 billion in
market value from new ventures
• 4,000 microenterprises (ME’s) of 10 to 15 employees
• Every market-facing ME builds a business ecosystem of nodes
• New offerings don’t get significant budget until validated by users
• MEs free to form & evolve with little centralised control
Source: The End of Bureaucracy – HBR, https://hbr.org/2018/11/the-end-of-bureaucracy

19. What we are focusing on @
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Delivery
Business Design
Strategy
Company knows where it wants to
play and how it will win
Company applies agile
delivery practices with belief this
will improve execution of strategy
Business
designed for
agility
But the way the business is
designed prevents agility.
Company knows where it wants to
play and how it will win
Company applies agile
practices with business
designed to support
adaptive strategy
Operating Model, Org Design
Leadership, Funding model,
Governance, Ways of Working

20. Is your business designed for agility?
/ 21 /
Delivery
Business Design
Strategy
Operating Model, Org Design
Leadership, Funding model,
Governance , Ways of Working
Strategy

21. The future is
bright but we
still have a
long way to go./ 22 /

22. We design and build
future-ready businesses
that progressively shape
the world for good.
Edwin Dando // Partner
M: + 64 21 361 813
E: Edwin@radically.co.nz