As a panelist for International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM),I presented my argument that current set of by elections do not influence the outcome of GE15. I examined the potential obstacles for such predictions on the following grounds: 1) Lower of voting age 2) Expanded voter registration base 3) By Election Trends between 2008 and 2018 4) Volatility of Post GE14 By Elections

1. DANESH PRAKASHCHACKO
TINDAK MALAYSIA
DO BY-ELECTIONS PREDICTOUTCOMES FOR GE15?

2. CONTENTS
POST GE14 BY ELECTIONS
ASSESSMENT
PAST BY ELECTIONS: A
BAROMETER?
18 -21 YOUTH VOTERS: X
FACTOR?
AUTOMATIC VOTER
REGISTRATION: BIG
MARKET?
INSIGHTS/DISTRACTIONS
OF POST GE14 BY
ELECTIONS

3. BY ELECTIONS ASSESSMENT
5 DUNS AND 3
PARLIAMENTARY SEATS
EXPERIENCED BY
ELECTIONS
LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO
THE DEATHS OF THE
LEGISLATORS
REMAINDER DUE TO
ELECTION PETITIONS
POLITICAL REALIGNMENTS
RESPONSE TO SENSITIVE
ISSUE
CANDIDATE STRENGTH

4. PAST BY ELECTIONS: A BAROMETER?
By ELECTIONS BETWEEN GE 12 (2008) AND GE 13 (2013)
- Do these by elections indicative of change to come in GE13?
- *Sarawak State Elections are conducted in 2011 and 2016
PARLIAMENT/DUN
STATUS
CONSTITUENCY
NAME
STATE
CONSTITUENCY
TYPE
2008 ELECTION
WINNER
BY ELECTION
DATE
BY ELECTION CAUSE
BY ELECTION
WINNER
2013 ELECTION
WINNER
PARLIAMENT PERMATANG PAUH PULAU PINANG SEMI URBAN PKR 26/8/2008 RESIGNATION PKR (+2.5%) PKR (-7.45%)
PARLIAMENT KUALA TERENGGANU TERENGGANU URBAN UMNO 17/1/2009 DEATH PAS (+2.9%) PAS (+4.6%)
PARLIAMENT BUKIT GANTANG PERAK RURAL PAS 7/4/2009 DEATH PAS (+2.5%) PAS (-2.5%)
DUN BATANG AI* SARAWAK RURAL PRS 7/4/2009 DEATH PRS (+8.6%) PRS (+6.6%)*
DUN BUKIT SELAMBAU KEDAH SEMI URBAN INDEPENDENT 7/4/2009 RESIGNATION PKR PKR (-4.8%)
DUN PENANTI PULAU PINANG URBAN PKR 31/5/2009 RESIGNATION PKR (+27.6%) PKR (-29.4%)
DUN MANEK URAI KELANTAN RURAL PAS 14/7/2009 DEATH PAS (-6.4%) PAS(+5.5%)
DUN PERMATANG PASIR PULAU PINANG SEMI URBAN PAS 25/8/2009 DEATH PAS (-0.9%) PAS (+1.5%)
DUN BAGAN PINANG NEGERI SEMBILAN SEMI URBAN UMNO 11/10/2009 DEATH UMNO (+14.6%) UMNO (-4.5%)
PARLIAMENT HULU SELANGOR SELANGOR SEMI URBAN PKR 25/4/2010 DEATH MIC (+2.0%) MIC (-0.9%)
PARLIAMENT SIBU SARAWAK URBAN SUPP 16/5/2010 DEATH DAP (+7.8%) DAP (+2.4%)
PARLIAMENT BATU SAPI SABAH RURAL PBS 4/11/2010 DEATH PBS (+2.1%) PBS (-6.8%)
DUN GALAS KELANTAN RURAL PAS 4/11/2010 DEATH UMNO (+10.3%) UMNO (-1.1%)
DUN TENANG JOHOR SEMI URBAN UMNO 30/1/2011 DEATH UMNO (+12.2%) UMNO (-13.6%)
DUN KERDAU PAHANG SEMI URBAN UMNO 6/3/2011 DEATH UMNO (+8.7%) UMNO (-6.0%)
DUN MERLIMAU MELAKA RURAL UMNO 6/3/2011 DEATH UMNO (+8.3%) UMNO (-10.1%)

5. PAST BY ELECTIONS: A BAROMETER?
By ELECTIONS BETWEEN GE 13 (2013) AND GE 14 (2018)
- Missed Indicators of Rompin and Two By Elections in 2016
- Rompin indicated the frustration of Felda voting blocks due to GST
- 2016 By Elections worked well for BN on the premise of solid BN advantage against the opponents
- *Sarawak State Elections are conducted in 2011 and 2016
PARLIAMENT/DUN
STATUS
CONSTITUENCY
NAME
STATE
CONSTITUENCY
TYPE
2013 ELECTION
WINNER
BY ELECTION
DATE
BY ELECTION
CAUSE
BY ELECTION
WINNER
2018 ELECTION
WINNER
DUN KUALA BESUT TERENGGANU SEMI URBAN UMNO 24/7/2013 DEATH UMNO (+1.7%) UMNO (-20.1%)
DUN SUNGAI LIMAU KEDAH SEMI URBAN PAS 4/11/2013 DEATH PAS (-2.3%) PAS (-7.1%)
DUN KAJANG SELANGOR URBAN PKR 23/3/2014 RESIGNATION PKR (+1.6%) PKR (+12%)
DUN BALINGIAN* SARAWAK RURAL PBB 29/3/2014 RESIGNATION PBB (+10.1%) PBB (-9.3%)
PARLIAMENT BUKIT GELUGOR PULAU PINANG URBAN DAP 25/5/2014 DEATH DAP (+9.4%) DAP (-3.3%)
PARLIAMENT TELUK INTAN PERAK SEMI URBAN DAP 31/5/2014 DEATH GERAKAN (+8.2%) DAP (+4.6%)
DUN PENGKALAN KUBOR KELANTAN SEMI URBAN UMNO 25/9/2014 DEATH UMNO (+4.1%) PAS (+7.7%)
DUN CHEMPAKA KELANTAN URBAN PAS 22/3/2015 DEATH PAS (+24.7%) PAS (-49.1%)
PARLIAMENT ROMPIN PAHANG RURAL UMNO 5/5/2015 DEATH UMNO (-5.3%) UMNO (-8%)
PARLIAMENT PERMATANG PAUH PULAU PINANG SEMI URBAN PKR 7/5/2015 RESIGNATION PKR (-1.2%) PKR (-7.1%)
PARLIAMENT KUALA KANGSAR PERAK SEMI URBAN UMNO 18/6/2016 DEATH UMNO (+3.2%) UMNO (-14.1%)
PARLIAMENT SUNGAI BESAR SELANGOR RURAL UMNO 18/6/2016 DEATH UMNO (+3.1%) PKR
DUN TANJUNG DATU* SARAWAK RURAL PBB 18/2/2017 DEATH PBB (+3.4%) N/A

6. 18 -21 Youth Voters: X Factor?
- 2019 Estimated 18-21 Youth presence in Malaysia by State and Ethnicity
*DOSM 2019 projections

7. 18 -21 Youth Voters: X Factor?
PERLIS 8.43%
KEDAH 9.66%
PULAU PINANG 8.01%
PERAK 9.44%
SELANGOR 7.54%
WP KUALA LUMPUR 7.12%
WP PUTRAJAYA 7.45%
NEGERI SEMBILAN 9.01%
MELAKA 8.75%
JOHOR 8.82%
KELANTAN 10.23%
TERENGGANU 9.78%
PAHANG 9.33%
EAST MALAYSIA
SABAH 9.89%
WP LABUAN 8.13%
SARAWAK 9.42%
EAST COAST PENINSULAR
NORTHERN PENINSULAR
CENTRAL PENINSULAR
SOUTHERN PENINSULAR
• Expected Addition rate due to Young Voters (refer to the
left table)
• Notice which states or their associated economic
development may experience a surge of under 21 voters
• Which political parties are able to capture new voting
base?
• Notice which ethnic groups predominate young voters
• Does race issues matter for university age students?

8. AUTOMATIC VOTER REGISTRATION: BIG MARKET?
2019 ESTIMATED UNREGISTERED VOTERS
SELANGOR
19%
SARAWAK
15%
JOHOR
14%
WP KUALA LUMPUR
11%
SABAH
9%
PERAK
8%
KEDAH
7%
KELANTAN
4%
PAHANG
4%
• Potentially adding
nearly 4 million voters
(2019)
• Top 5 potential
contributors of new
voter pool
• Selangor
• Kuala Lumpur
• Johor
• Sabah
• Sarawak
• For Selangor, new voters
most likely will come
from ages of 21 - 40
*EC 2019

9. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SUPPORT(%)
BY ELECTIONS
PH SUPPORT AMONG RACES (POST GE14 ELECTIONS IN 2018)
MALAY SUPER MAJORITY SALURAN MALAY MAJORITY SALURAN MIXED SALURAN
CHINESE SUPERMAJORITY SALURAN CHINESE MAJORITY SALURAN INDIAN SUPERMAJORITY SALURAN
WHAT DO CURRENT BY ELECTIONS SAY?
• ANALYSIS OF POST GE14 BY ELECTIONS IN 2018
SG KANDIS
SERI SETIA
BALAKONG
PORT DICKSON
• Key Observations
• Is Balakong an
anomaly?
• Chinese support for
PH remains solid
(>70%)
• Mixed and
Predominant
Indian Areas solidly
back PH
• Success of party
depends on
turnout

10. WHAT DO CURRENT BY ELECTIONS SAY?
• COMPETITION OF YOUNG MALAY VOTERS (21 – 30)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
SUPPORT(%)
BY ELECTIONS
PARTY SUPPORT AMONG YOUNG MALAY VOTERS (21 - 30)
PH BN PAS
SUPPORT IN MALAY SUPERMAJORITY AREAS
SG KANDIS
SERI SETIA
BALAKONG
PORT DICKSON
• Key Observations
• PAS was the early
beneficiary of the
vote swing among
this group
• Are Port Dickson
and Balakong
Malay voters
affected by other
variables?

11. WHAT DO CURRENT BY ELECTIONS SAY?
• CHANGES FROM CAMERON HIGHLANDS TO RANTAU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
BN PH PAS
ESTIMATEDSUPPORTLEVEL(%)
POLITICAL COALITIONS/PARTIES
Youth Voter (21 - 30) Behaviour in Cameron Highlands
(Malay Majority areas)
GE14 2019 By Elections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
BN PH PAS
ESTIMATEDSUPPORTLEVEL(%)
POLITICAL COALITIONS/PARTIES
Youth Voter (21 - 30) Behaviour in Semenyih (Malay
Majority areas)
GE14 2019 By Elections

12. WHAT DO CURRENT BY ELECTIONS SAY?
• CHANGES FROM CAMERON HIGHLANDS TO RANTAU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
BN PH PAS
ESTIMATEDSUPPORTLEVEL(%)
POLITICAL COALITIONS/PARTIES
Youth Voter (21 - 30) Behaviour in Rantau (Malay
Majority areas)
GE14 2019 By Elections
• SANDAKAN: A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE?
5%
5.70%
-7%
-11%
-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
CHINESE MAJORITY
MIXED
CHANGE IN VOTING PATTERN
ETHNICMAJORITY
EVOLVING VOTING PATTERNS BASED ON
MAJOR RACE IN SANDAKAN
CHANGE FOR BN/PBS CHANGE FOR PH

13. SUMMARY
• May be representative of political views of certain rural and semi
urban areas
• However, the impact of expanded voting base has yet to be assessed
• Political parties’ ability to penetrate young voters could not be
quantified for now
• Election turnout (depending for which party) has an impact in coming
GEs
• Current by elections can be used to influence immediate political
outcomes
• 4 Years to go for GE15 – extremely long time for politics
• By Elections CANNOT predict the outcome for GE15

14. THANKYOU