Presented at Bitcoins in Bali, August 2017

1. The Blockchain
in Four Futures
Daniel Riveong, 22 August 2017, v1

2. About Daniel Riveong
• Foresight Consultant with UNICEF Malaysia, UNICEF Tajikistan, International
Insurance Companies, etc
Member of Association of Professional Futurists
• MS in Foresight (expected May 2018) at the University of Houston
Focus: Post-Capitalism, Developing Countries, Blockchain
• Piloted a Data Science School in Jakarta
Former Digital Marketing Consultant
Yves Saint Laurent, Gucci, Balenciaga, Fitness
First Asia, Wells Fargo, Western Union,
Seagate Technologies, Microsoft, etc
Former Developer & Data Analyst
PHP, MySQL, R, Tableau, Python

3. Exploring Plausible Impacts
Blockchain
Centralization
Glocal Citizenship
Hyper-Self-
Segregation
Blockchained &
Repressed
+15 years
Look-ahead

4. 1. Blockchain Centralization
Business as Usual: Blockchain technologies are exploited by
new & old elites, becoming part of established infrastructures

5. 1. SIGNALS
Historical Patterns of New Technologies
The Promise The Reality
Radios for Hobbyists Corporate Monopoly
Internet as Open Media Facebook, Amazon, Google
Internet as Open Access Monopoly of ISPs
Internet as Anonymous Big Data & Data Science
Linux for Everyone iOS & Android Duopoly
Sharing Economy Uber, AirBnb, WeWork, Mobike
Public Blockchains… Centralized Blockchains?

6. 1. SIGNALS
Elite Adoption of Blockchain Technology

7. 2. Glocal Citizenship
People become more global with
decentralized organizations and
eCitizenships that granting access to legal
systems and crypto-currencies regardless
of geography and traditional nationality.
Geographic Communities are empowered
thanks to decentralized energy,
complementary currencies, and localized
e-residencies.
Commerce Culture
CommunityConnectivity
Resilient, Collaborative & Open Communities?

8. 2. SIGNALS
Decoupling & Collaboration Signals
Values Shift
Localism, Circular Economy, Social Enterprises
Post-Nation State Citizenship
Democracy Earth, Bitnation, Flux, e-Estonia
Decentralized Organizations
Attempts: DAO, Arcade City, Swarm City
Complementary & UBI Currencies
Bancor, CredditCommons, Community Forge,
GrantCoins etc
Decentralized Energy
Power Ledger, Share & Charge etc

9. 3. Hyper-Self-Segregation
Hyper-Self-Segregation occurs as a
result of decentralization:
• People opt for laws &
communities based on religion,
politics or other ideologies
• Geography-based Communities
declare quasi-independence via
complementary currencies,
eResidencies, decentralized
energy, and so on.

10. 3. SIGNALS
Polarization & Self-Segregation

11. 4. Blockchained & Repressed
Media frenzy over an ICO scam,
autonomous DOA disputes, and terrorism
funded by cryptocurrency pushes
governments to fully regulate and/or
repress non-corporate owned blockchains.
Blockchains are used by central banks,
logistical chains et al, but gov’t scrutiny
holds back innovation.

12. 4. SIGNALS
Scandals, Fear & Gov’t Action with Crytocurrencies

13. “Amidst a backdrop of existing inertias,
the future is ours to create.”
- Thomas Frey

14. Appendix

15. Technology Trends Are NOT a Sure Thing
Gartner Hype Cycle from 1995
Hype Cycle 1995

16. Exploring Plausible Futures